Public Opinion and Public Policy in Post-Brexit Post-Pandemic Britain

Brexit is now often presented as being done and dusted. Those who voted Remain have (it is said) accommodated themselves to the outcome, neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats are keen to revisit the issue, while the UK government is keen to exploit the 'opportunities' that being outside the EU single market and customs union affords.

Yet in practice, polling and survey data suggest that voters are still evenly divided on whether the UK should be inside or outside the EU, that they are often doubtful of its consequences to date, and that they are not always supportive of proposals for divergence from the regulatory rules of the EU single market. Meanwhile, support for remaining part of the UK has fallen in both Scotland and Northern Ireland, in both of which a majority voted Remain. At the same time, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath, together with the Ukraine war, Brexit is being implemented in very different circumstances from those that pertained at the time of the 2016 referendum, including an inflationary spiral, a tight labour market and a changed geo-strategic environment, a development that may influence voters' eventual judgement of Brexit.

These considerations suggest that how the public view Brexit - and thus the extent to which the 2016 referendum (as currently implemented) will provide a lasting resolution of the question of the UK's relationship with the EU - should not be taken for granted. With a view to informing public debate on the subject, this project will chart and analyse trends in key public attitudes and evaluations following the implementation of Brexit, and assess how far those attitudes and evaluations may have been affected by (i) the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic aftermath, and (ii) the Ukraine war.

It will examine in particular:

(i) whether Brexit comes to be regarded as a success or a failure and the impact, if any, this evaluation has on levels of support for being inside or outside the EU,
(ii) public attitudes towards some of the regulatory policy choices open to the UK following its exit from the EU,
(iii) to what extent Brexit and associated 'culture war' issues might continue to influence party choice, and
(iv) how people in Scotland evaluate the comparative consequences of being, on the one hand, part of the UK and outside the EU versus, on the other, being an independent country and part of the EU.

These topics will be pursued through original survey work, the reanalysis of other relevant academic surveys, and collating and analysing relevant commercial polling data. As a fellowship of 'The UK in a Changing Europe' initiative, the project's principal audiences are policy makers, the media, and the interested public. To that end, its outputs and analysis will be made readily available via two existing websites, whatukthinks.org/eu and whatscotlandthinks.org, and a programme of public presentations/webinars, podcasts, and media engagement, underpinned by more formal academic publications.