The effects of voter ID in the UK
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Oxford
Department Name: Politics and International Relations
Abstract
The UK 2022 Elections Act will introduce mandatory photographic voter ID for in-person voting in England, Scotland, and Wales in general elections, and also in all local elections in England from May 2023. The reform will, for the first time, make the exercise of the right to vote in UK general elections conditional on the presentation of photo ID. Government research suggests that 9 per cent of UK voters do not currently have eligible identification. This is a potentially consequential and contentious change that forms part of a wider international trend (e.g., US, India). Its proponents argue that voter ID combats electoral fraud and increases voter confidence in elections. Its opponents argue that, in contexts without national ID like the UK, it depresses electoral participation, equality, and trust in electoral fairness across a range of voter groups who are less likely to possess ID.
Context
Scientifically, the effects of voter ID remain poorly understood. Studies of the effects of voter ID feature contradictory findings and focus overwhelmingly on the US (Alvarez et al 2021, Atkeson et al 2010, Atkeson et al 2014, Grimmer et al 2018, Hanjal et al 2017, Stuart III et al 2016, Valentino & Neuner 2017). In the US, the recent introduction of strict voter ID laws in multiple states is accompanied by the increasing salience of concerns about electoral integrity and fairness in the public discourse. However, findings derived from the US context are of limited generalizability because responses to voter ID in the US are shaped by the political salience of race and a level of political polarization that does not apply to other developed democracies (Wilson & Rosenbluth 2014). Moreover, causally identified research designs are rare in studies of the effects of voter ID, which makes it difficult to draw robust conclusions (Highton 2017, Burden 2018, Grimmer et al 2018).
Aims
This project studies the effects on voters' behaviour and attitudes of the introduction of mandatory photo ID in the UK. It combines (i) original surveys that examine the effect of voter ID as it unfolds in real time in the context of English local elections and the next UK general election (likely to be held in 2024 or 2025) with the analysis of historical data on the effects of the introduction of voter ID in (i) Northern Ireland in the early 2000s, and (iii) the English voter ID trials of 2018 and 2019.
Objectives
The project's academic and policy objectives are: (i) To deliver the first comprehensive study of the effects of voter ID in any developed democracy on the local and national level. (ii) To contribute to political science an understanding of the effects of voter ID in the UK, a case of importance in its own right, and a country from which conclusions are more likely to generalize to other developed democracies than from the US. (iii) For experts of British politics, this is the first and only study of voter ID in the UK which employs a research design that can identify the causal effects of the reform. (iv) For the UK Government, Parliament, and the Electoral Commission, the project provides timely and politically impartial evidence of the effect of voter ID (please see Case for Support, section "7. Impact").
Context
Scientifically, the effects of voter ID remain poorly understood. Studies of the effects of voter ID feature contradictory findings and focus overwhelmingly on the US (Alvarez et al 2021, Atkeson et al 2010, Atkeson et al 2014, Grimmer et al 2018, Hanjal et al 2017, Stuart III et al 2016, Valentino & Neuner 2017). In the US, the recent introduction of strict voter ID laws in multiple states is accompanied by the increasing salience of concerns about electoral integrity and fairness in the public discourse. However, findings derived from the US context are of limited generalizability because responses to voter ID in the US are shaped by the political salience of race and a level of political polarization that does not apply to other developed democracies (Wilson & Rosenbluth 2014). Moreover, causally identified research designs are rare in studies of the effects of voter ID, which makes it difficult to draw robust conclusions (Highton 2017, Burden 2018, Grimmer et al 2018).
Aims
This project studies the effects on voters' behaviour and attitudes of the introduction of mandatory photo ID in the UK. It combines (i) original surveys that examine the effect of voter ID as it unfolds in real time in the context of English local elections and the next UK general election (likely to be held in 2024 or 2025) with the analysis of historical data on the effects of the introduction of voter ID in (i) Northern Ireland in the early 2000s, and (iii) the English voter ID trials of 2018 and 2019.
Objectives
The project's academic and policy objectives are: (i) To deliver the first comprehensive study of the effects of voter ID in any developed democracy on the local and national level. (ii) To contribute to political science an understanding of the effects of voter ID in the UK, a case of importance in its own right, and a country from which conclusions are more likely to generalize to other developed democracies than from the US. (iii) For experts of British politics, this is the first and only study of voter ID in the UK which employs a research design that can identify the causal effects of the reform. (iv) For the UK Government, Parliament, and the Electoral Commission, the project provides timely and politically impartial evidence of the effect of voter ID (please see Case for Support, section "7. Impact").