Statistical inference in transmission models based on Bayesian synthesis of evidence from multiple sources
Lead Research Organisation:
Medical Research Council
Department Name: UNLISTED
Abstract
Policy makers need reliable models to understand the HIV epidemic, to predict the likely future burden of disease for planning, and to predict the likely effect of preventive interventions. Current methods are not adequate to this task. Some methods fail to make use of all the available data, use it in an inconsistent way, and are inherently unable to predict the long term effect of interventions. This is because the risk of acquiring HIV at any point in time depends on how many people already have it, giving rise to dynamic ?feedback? effects. Other methods, which allow for dynamic effects and can therefore predict long term effects of interventions, are not as ?evidence-based? as would be desirable, and it is difficult to tell how accurate their predictions are.
The project builds on successful work already completed by the applicants, who have recently developed methods for estimating the incidence and prevalence of HIV in the England & Wales. These methods are designed to (a) incorporate all the available information, so that predictions are less uncertain, (b) allow the consistency of the information to be established, (c) provide a systematic analysis of the uncertainty in predictions, based on the uncertainties in the data inputs. These methods have been used in the most recent Department of Health report on the state of the HIV epidemic in the UK.
The plan now is to extend and refine these methods, so that they can incorporate HIV transmission dynamics and thus allow policy makers to assess the effects of alternative interventions. This will also allow many more sources of data to be incorporated, reducing uncertainty in prediction still further.
Although the intention is to apply this to the analysis of the HIV epidemic in the UK, the methods to be developed will be applicable to the prevention and control of any human or animal infectious disease.
The project builds on successful work already completed by the applicants, who have recently developed methods for estimating the incidence and prevalence of HIV in the England & Wales. These methods are designed to (a) incorporate all the available information, so that predictions are less uncertain, (b) allow the consistency of the information to be established, (c) provide a systematic analysis of the uncertainty in predictions, based on the uncertainties in the data inputs. These methods have been used in the most recent Department of Health report on the state of the HIV epidemic in the UK.
The plan now is to extend and refine these methods, so that they can incorporate HIV transmission dynamics and thus allow policy makers to assess the effects of alternative interventions. This will also allow many more sources of data to be incorporated, reducing uncertainty in prediction still further.
Although the intention is to apply this to the analysis of the HIV epidemic in the UK, the methods to be developed will be applicable to the prevention and control of any human or animal infectious disease.
Technical Summary
Reliable methods are need to predict the future course of the HIV epidemic and the effect of possible interventions. Current methods are not adequate. The earlier back-projection methods for incidence estimation has been compromised by anti-retroviral therapy. The ?Direct Method? for prevalence estimation has been shown to make inconsistent and incomplete use of the available data (Goubar, 2006). Models of incidence and prevalence alone cannot predict the long-term effect of lowering incidence because incidence and prevalence are related by feedback mechanisms. Dynamic transmission models address this issue. Here, incidence in any subgroup g depends on the prevalence of infection in each group j and the probability that members on each group j will infect susceptibles in group g. However, dynamic models are generally set out as complex systems of differential equations, and it is not possible to estimate the parameters formally from data. As a result, prediction uncertainty can only be analysed by scenario analysis.
Recently, the applicants developed an alternative approach to prevalence estimation (Goubar, 2006). This was a Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis (MPES) of 6 distinct types of surveillance and survey data on HIV, to simultaneously estimate risk group size, group-specific HIV prevalence and proportion diagnosed, in each of 13 risk groups. MPES allows assessment of consistency in evidence, and propagates uncertainty in evidence correctly through to parameters and predictions. This method was used for the Department of Health?s official report on the status of the HIV epidemic in 2004. Recently we extended this model, so that instead of producing a series of annual prevalence estimates from a series of annual data ensembles, it produces estimates of rates of entry into each of the risk groups, group-specific HIV incidence and diagnosis rates.
We now propose to extend this further to incorporate the essential properties of dynamic transmission models. The main step is to re-parameterise the model, expressing incidence in each group g as a linear combination of proportion of number of infected in group j and probabilities in a contact-an-mixing matrix that individuals in group j will infect susceptibes in group g. This re-parameterisation means that information on sexual contact patterns and transmission probabilities can be combined with the core surveillance data in a single integrated analysis.
The combination of Bayesian propagation of uncertainty with dynamic modelling creates a powerful tool for evidence-based policy analysis, applicable to the dynamics and control of any human or animal infectious disease.
Recently, the applicants developed an alternative approach to prevalence estimation (Goubar, 2006). This was a Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis (MPES) of 6 distinct types of surveillance and survey data on HIV, to simultaneously estimate risk group size, group-specific HIV prevalence and proportion diagnosed, in each of 13 risk groups. MPES allows assessment of consistency in evidence, and propagates uncertainty in evidence correctly through to parameters and predictions. This method was used for the Department of Health?s official report on the status of the HIV epidemic in 2004. Recently we extended this model, so that instead of producing a series of annual prevalence estimates from a series of annual data ensembles, it produces estimates of rates of entry into each of the risk groups, group-specific HIV incidence and diagnosis rates.
We now propose to extend this further to incorporate the essential properties of dynamic transmission models. The main step is to re-parameterise the model, expressing incidence in each group g as a linear combination of proportion of number of infected in group j and probabilities in a contact-an-mixing matrix that individuals in group j will infect susceptibes in group g. This re-parameterisation means that information on sexual contact patterns and transmission probabilities can be combined with the core surveillance data in a single integrated analysis.
The combination of Bayesian propagation of uncertainty with dynamic modelling creates a powerful tool for evidence-based policy analysis, applicable to the dynamics and control of any human or animal infectious disease.
Organisations
- Medical Research Council (Lead Research Organisation)
- Harvard University (Collaboration)
- Public Health England, Salisbury (Collaboration)
- University College London, United Kingdom (Collaboration)
- Royal College of General Practioners (RCGP) (Collaboration)
- National Centre for Social Research, United Kingdom (Collaboration)
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (Collaboration)
- National Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM) (Collaboration)
- Fogarty International Centre (Collaboration)
- World Health Organization (WHO) (Collaboration)
Publications

Birrell PJ
(2011)
Bayesian modeling to unmask and predict influenza A/H1N1pdm dynamics in London.
in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Conti S
(2011)
Modeling of the HIV infection epidemic in the Netherlands: A multi-parameter evidence synthesis approach
in The Annals of Applied Statistics

De Angelis D
(2014)
Estimation of HIV Burden through Bayesian Evidence Synthesis
in Statistical Science

Perino A
(2011)
Integrating cardiac PIP3 and cAMP signaling through a PKA anchoring function of p110?.
in Molecular cell

Presanis AM
(2010)
Insights into the rise in HIV infections, 2001 to 2008: a Bayesian synthesis of prevalence evidence.
in AIDS (London, England)

Presanis AM
(2011)
Bayesian evidence synthesis for a transmission dynamic model for HIV among men who have sex with men.
in Biostatistics (Oxford, England)

Presanis AM
(2009)
The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: a Bayesian analysis.
in PLoS medicine
Description | Adviser to WHO HIV modelling in Europe Group |
Geographic Reach | Europe |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a advisory committee |
Impact | Adviser to WHO HIV modelling in Europe Group |
Description | Citation in House of Lords Select Commitee |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
Impact | Work is cited both in the Written and Oral Evidence presented by the Health Protection Agency in the House of Lords Select Committee on HIV and AIDS in the United Kingdom report entitled "No vaccine, no cure: HIV and AIDS in the United Kingdom" which can be accessed here http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/hiv-select-committee/publications/ The references are given formally in the Oral with associated written evidence (http://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-committees/hivaids/HIVAIDSUKev.pdf) but our work is referenced informally (as the MPES method or via the HPA's report "HIV in the United Kingdom (2010 Report)") also in the Select Committee's 1st Report (http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201012/ldselect/ldaids/188/188.pdf) |
URL | http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/hiv-select-committee/public... |
Description | Citation in the SaBTO report from the DoH Blood Donor Selection Steering Group |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
Impact | The work on the blood donor selection criteria review is referenced in https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/donor-selection-criteria-review http://www.dh.gov.uk/prod_consum_dh/groups/dh_digitalassets/documents/digitalasset/dh_129909.pdf In the SaBTO report, the work is referenced as Davison et al, in press, but this work has now been published here: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1423-0410.2011.01491.x/abstract The work resulted in a change in the recommendation made by SABTO on the current donor deferral period for men who have sex with men. |
URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/donor-selection-criteria-review |
Description | Department of Health Scientific Pandemic Influenza Advisory Committee, subgroup on Modelling (SPIM-O) |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in advisory committee |
Impact | Member of SPI-M (O) SPI-M(O) advices the Department of Health on methods of data analysis in the preparedness for and during an emerging epidemic. The goal is to reduce the impact of an epidemic. |
Description | HIV prevalence estimates |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Impact | New methods for HIV prevalence estimates; Recognition for the MRC and the Unit; Estimates contribute to HIV testing policy in the UK; In 2011, estimates contributed to the House of Lords Select Committee on HIV/AIDS (http://www.parliament.uk/HIVSELECT). 9 annual reports 2005-present produced: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hiv-in-the-united-kingdom http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/1211HIVintheUK2012/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/1111HIVintheUK2011report/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/1011HIVUK2010Report/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0911HIVUK2009Report/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0811hivUK/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0711TestingTimesHIVandSTIsReport/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0611ComplexPictureUKHIVSTI/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0511MappingHIVandSTIinUK2005/ |
URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hiv-in-the-united-kingdom |
Description | Member of the National HIV incidence and resistance advisory group |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in advisory committee |
Impact | Member of the National HIV incidence and resistance advisory group. |
Description | WHO Influenza Pandemic mortality consultation group |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in advisory committee |
Impact | International collaboration on estimating global pandemic H1N1/2009 mortality to influence future policy for pandemic preparedness. Resulted in co-authorship on publication DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(12)70121-4 |
URL | http://www.who.int/influenza/surveillance_monitoring/updates/MortalityEstimates/en/ |
Description | WHO, HIV incidence assay working group |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in advisory committee |
Impact | Contribution towards new methods of estimation of HIV incidence based on Seroconversion assays - Robust estimation of HIV incidence and identification of recent infection at the individual level, are crucial to design and evaluate interventions to reduce HIV transmission, with an obvious consequence on quality of life. |
Title | MPES |
Description | Statistical methods to synthesise information on disease prevalence from multiple sources, e.g. for HIV and HCV. |
Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Approach and software used by other researchers and public health agencies (UK and Europe). |
URL | https://www.gov.uk/hiv-overall-prevalence |
Title | Methods for disease prevalence and incidence estimation |
Description | Development of methods for disease prevalence and incidence estimation, e.g. for HIV, HCV and influenza. Methods include evidence synthesis, back-calculation and transmission modelling (see software section). |
Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
Year Produced | 2009 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Strengthening collaboration with recognised organisations, such as WHO; ECDC; UNAIDS; Harvard School of Public Health. |
Description | Harvard University/CDC/NIH |
Organisation | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) |
Country | United States |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Scientific collaboration. |
Collaborator Contribution | Scientific collaboration and data provision. Epidemiological expertise and data provision. Hosted a member of my team for two months, funded by MRC Centenary Award. |
Impact | PMID: 19997612; 21612363 Talk at Epidemics conference 2009. Poster at Epidemics conference 2013. Paper in preparation. |
Start Year | 2009 |
Description | Harvard University/CDC/NIH |
Organisation | Fogarty International Centre |
Department | Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies (DIEPS) |
Country | United States |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Scientific collaboration. |
Collaborator Contribution | Scientific collaboration and data provision. Epidemiological expertise and data provision. Hosted a member of my team for two months, funded by MRC Centenary Award. |
Impact | PMID: 19997612; 21612363 Talk at Epidemics conference 2009. Poster at Epidemics conference 2013. Paper in preparation. |
Start Year | 2009 |
Description | Harvard University/CDC/NIH |
Organisation | Harvard University |
Department | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Scientific collaboration. |
Collaborator Contribution | Scientific collaboration and data provision. Epidemiological expertise and data provision. Hosted a member of my team for two months, funded by MRC Centenary Award. |
Impact | PMID: 19997612; 21612363 Talk at Epidemics conference 2009. Poster at Epidemics conference 2013. Paper in preparation. |
Start Year | 2009 |
Description | Health Protection Agency |
Organisation | Public Health England |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Development/ application of statistical methods to enable a better understanding of the HIV epidemic in the UK. |
Collaborator Contribution | Data provision and epidemiological expertise |
Impact | Many scientific publications. One PhD thesis completed. Reports: - Health Protection Agency, HIV in the United Kingdom: 2009 Report, London, United Kingdom, November 2009. Available from: http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0911HIVUK2009Report/ (De Angelis D, Presanis AM, contributors). - Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections HIV, HIV in the United Kingdom: 2008 report, London, United Kingdom, November 2008. Available from: http://www.hpa.org.uk/hivuk2008 (De Angelis D, Presanis A, contributors). |
Start Year | 2007 |
Description | Health Protection Agency -Influenza |
Organisation | Public Health England |
Department | Centre of Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Statistical analysis and consultation Publication |
Collaborator Contribution | Data provision and statistical expertise |
Impact | PMIDs: 22042838; 21903689; 21087539, doi:10.1214/14-AOAS775 Papers under submission: Birrell PJ, Zhang X-S, Pebody RG, Gay NJ, De Angelis D. Reconstructing a spatially heterogeneous epidemic: Characterising the geographic spread of 2009 A/H1N1 infection in England (Scientific Reports) Birrell PJ, De Angelis D, Wernisch L, Tom BDM, Roberts GO, Pebody RG. Efficient real-time monitoring of an emerging influenza epidemic: how feasible? (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series C)) |
Start Year | 2009 |
Description | Health Protection Agency -Influenza |
Organisation | Royal College of General Practitioners |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Statistical analysis and consultation Publication |
Collaborator Contribution | Data provision and statistical expertise |
Impact | PMIDs: 22042838; 21903689; 21087539, doi:10.1214/14-AOAS775 Papers under submission: Birrell PJ, Zhang X-S, Pebody RG, Gay NJ, De Angelis D. Reconstructing a spatially heterogeneous epidemic: Characterising the geographic spread of 2009 A/H1N1 infection in England (Scientific Reports) Birrell PJ, De Angelis D, Wernisch L, Tom BDM, Roberts GO, Pebody RG. Efficient real-time monitoring of an emerging influenza epidemic: how feasible? (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series C)) |
Start Year | 2009 |
Description | Health Protection Agency UK-HIV |
Organisation | Public Health England |
Department | Centre of Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Statistical expertise. Publications and reports. |
Collaborator Contribution | Data provision and statistical expertise |
Impact | PMID: 21087539; 21525422; 21422986; 20962617; 19081004; 22039196; 21932033 Reports: The UK Collaborative Group for HIV and STI surveillance. 2005. Mapping the issues. HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in the United Kingdom:2005 The UK Collaborative Group for HIV and STI surveillance. 2006. A Complex picture. HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in the United Kingdom:2006 The UK Collaborative Group for HIV and STI surveillance. 2007. Testing times. HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in the United Kingdom:2007 Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. HIV in the United Kingdom: 2008 report (www.hpa.org.uk/hivuk2008) Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. HIV in the United Kingdom: 2009 report (www.hpa.org.uk/hivuk2009) Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. HIV in the United Kingdom: 2010 report (www.hpa.org.uk/hivuk2010) |
Description | NATSAL |
Organisation | National Centre for Social Research |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | Statistical modelling and expertise. |
Collaborator Contribution | Provision of data to contribute to evidence syntheses to estimate prevalence of HIV and HCV. |
Impact | HIV and HCV annual reports from Public Health England. |
Description | NATSAL |
Organisation | University College London |
Department | School of Life and Medical Sciences |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Statistical modelling and expertise. |
Collaborator Contribution | Provision of data to contribute to evidence syntheses to estimate prevalence of HIV and HCV. |
Impact | HIV and HCV annual reports from Public Health England. |
Description | WHO/Netherland/HPA |
Organisation | National Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM) |
Department | Centre for Control of Infectious Diseases |
Country | Netherlands |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Scientific collaboration and statistical expertise |
Collaborator Contribution | Data provision and scientific collaborationStatistical expertise. Publications and reports.Statistical expertise |
Impact | Presentations at formal meetings/Scientific presentations. Papers 21150562 Technical reports: - National Estimates of HIV Prevalence and Modelling of the HIV Epidemic in Europe. World Health Organization (WHO) Technical report, March 2010 (De Angelis D, Presanis AM, Conti S, contributors) - World Health Organization (WHO), 'Transmission dynamics and impact of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus' In Weekly Epidemiological Record, No. 46, 2009, 84, 477-484. Available from http://www.who.int/wer (De Angelis D, Presanis AM, contributors) |
Start Year | 2007 |
Description | WHO/Netherland/HPA |
Organisation | Public Health England |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Scientific collaboration and statistical expertise |
Collaborator Contribution | Data provision and scientific collaborationStatistical expertise. Publications and reports.Statistical expertise |
Impact | Presentations at formal meetings/Scientific presentations. Papers 21150562 Technical reports: - National Estimates of HIV Prevalence and Modelling of the HIV Epidemic in Europe. World Health Organization (WHO) Technical report, March 2010 (De Angelis D, Presanis AM, Conti S, contributors) - World Health Organization (WHO), 'Transmission dynamics and impact of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus' In Weekly Epidemiological Record, No. 46, 2009, 84, 477-484. Available from http://www.who.int/wer (De Angelis D, Presanis AM, contributors) |
Start Year | 2007 |
Description | WHO/Netherland/HPA |
Organisation | World Health Organization (WHO) |
Country | Global |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Scientific collaboration and statistical expertise |
Collaborator Contribution | Data provision and scientific collaborationStatistical expertise. Publications and reports.Statistical expertise |
Impact | Presentations at formal meetings/Scientific presentations. Papers 21150562 Technical reports: - National Estimates of HIV Prevalence and Modelling of the HIV Epidemic in Europe. World Health Organization (WHO) Technical report, March 2010 (De Angelis D, Presanis AM, Conti S, contributors) - World Health Organization (WHO), 'Transmission dynamics and impact of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus' In Weekly Epidemiological Record, No. 46, 2009, 84, 477-484. Available from http://www.who.int/wer (De Angelis D, Presanis AM, contributors) |
Start Year | 2007 |
Title | Swine Flu |
Description | Advice and recommendations to the government through participation in advisory group |
Type | Support Tool - For Fundamental Research |
Current Stage Of Development | Small-scale adoption |
Year Development Stage Completed | 2009 |
Development Status | Under active development/distribution |
Impact | Revised public health advice |
Title | MPES |
Description | Bespoke evidence synthesis models for estimating disease prevalence (HIV, HCV), developed and employed by national and international public health agencies (Public Health England annually since 2006, Health Protection Scotland in 2014, Dutch National Institute of Public Health (RIVM) in 2010-11, 2014). |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2006 |
Impact | Annual national estimates of HIV and HCV prevalence PHE Annual report on Hepatitis C in the UK (since 2008) See link to 2014 report: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/337115/HCV_in_the_UK_2014_24_July.pdf |
URL | https://www.gov.uk/hiv-overall-prevalence |
Description | Annual WHO/ European Network Meeting for HIV/AIDS Surveillance |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Type Of Presentation | Keynote/Invited Speaker |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Health professionals |
Results and Impact | Presented "Multi-parameter evidence synthesis to estimate HIV prevalence in the UK: applicability to other European countries?" at the Annual WHO meeting on HIV surveillance. Copenhagen, November 2008. See also 2009 report: http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/communicable-diseases/hivaids/publications/2010/hivaids-surveillance-in-europe-2009 Recognition for the work of the MRC and the Unit |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2008,2009 |
URL | http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/78564/E92851.pdf |
Description | Cambridge Science Festival |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | Yes |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Each year BSU participate in Cambridge Science Festival - members of the general public explore and discuss issues of scientific interest and concern, through a series of different events. The event also aims to raise aspirations by encouraging young people to consider a career in science, technology, engineering or mathematics. BSU take part over two full days - 'Science Saturday' and the 'Cambridge Biomedical Campus' day. The unit presents a stand with 4 - 5 interactive activities that each communicate a basic statistical method or idea, representing one of the four research themes in the unit. Each year a new activity is developed and delivered requiring scientific input from staff across the unit. Over the two days, BSU engage with approximately 500 adults and children who visit the festival. Raised awareness of the Unit's work in the local schools community Very good feedback from festival attendants Contributed to enhance the methodological quality of medical research developed by BSU staff Contributed to enable Best Research for Best Health |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2007,2008,2009,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017 |
URL | http://www.cam.ac.uk/science-festival |
Description | Department of Health Scientific Pandemic Influenza Advisory Committee, subgroup on Modelling (SPIM-O) 2011 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | Yes |
Type Of Presentation | Keynote/Invited Speaker |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Presentation of current relevant work at the Department of Health Scientific Pandemic Influenza Advisory Committee, subgroup on Modelling (SPIM-O). Audience included scientists and policy-makers The work presented forms the basis of an ongoing funding application to NIHR |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2011 |
Description | RIVM Netherlands 2009 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Type Of Presentation | Keynote/Invited Speaker |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Health professionals |
Results and Impact | 30 people attended the initial reports meeting of the RIVM (Nationa Institute for Public Heakth and the Envirnment- The Netherlands) Initial report of results from the collaboration |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2009 |
URL | http://www.rivm.nl/en |
Description | Stockholm-Euro-HIV meeting 2008 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | Yes |
Type Of Presentation | Keynote/Invited Speaker |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Invited speaker at the EURO-HIV meeting in Stockholm. Talk entitled "HIV incidence estimates in the collaborating countries" Recognition for the MRC and the unit. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2008 |
Description | UNAIDS Reference Group Meeting 2008 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Type Of Presentation | Keynote/Invited Speaker |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Health professionals |
Results and Impact | De Angelis D presented "Performance of different prevalence estimation tools in the Netherlands, and comparison with case reports of HIV infection" at UNAIDS Reference Group Meeting. December 2008, Amsterdam. Recognition for the work of the MRC and the Unit. Published report: "Estimation of the size of high risk groups and HIV prevalence in high risk groups in concentrated epidemics". Report of a meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections held in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Dec 9-10th 2008. TECHNICAL REPORT AND RECOMMENDATIONS |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2008 |
URL | http://www.epidem.org/sites/default/files/reports/Final%20Report_Amsterdam2008_July%202009.pdf |
Description | WHO/ECDC/ UNAIDS Meeting 2007 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | Yes |
Type Of Presentation | Keynote/Invited Speaker |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Invited speaker at WHO/ECDC/UNAIDS meeting in Amsterdam. Talk entitled "Current developments on estimation of HIV prevalence/incidence in the UK" Recognition for the MRC and the Unit |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2007 |