The spatial epidemiology of alcohol availability, consumption and harm
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Manchester
Department Name: Mathematics
Abstract
Alcohol misuse has been one of the major public health concerns in the UK as a significant source of health and social problems. Much research has tried to identify, qualify, and quantify the factors (socio-economic, cultural) that lead to or foster alcohol misuse and their impact on health. Nonetheless, the extent of the impact of many of these factors is still not fully understood.
Recent research infers on the existence of an association between high density of alcohol outlets and alcohol related incidents (e.g. alcohol consumption, mortality, driving under the influence, violence). Other studies have addressed the trends in alcohol availability (density or proximity), associations with geographical areas of deprivation, or with alcohol related hospital admissions.
However, the quantification of the impact of these relations and a causality link between them has yet to be established, particularly in the UK, where tailored recommendations (considering outlet type and demographic characteristics) of limit densities of alcohol availability could inform the development of more effective alcohol policies.
This project proposes to understand the public health impact of geographical alcohol availability in the UK and to explore its associations to behaviours of consumption and misuse. We propose to investigate the spatial relationship between harm and consumption, and in particular, to characterise the spatial aspects of the relationship between demographics and outlets that are responsible for harm and problematic consumption.
The project aims to increase the effectiveness of policy making (with regards to limiting alcohol availability) and to feed into the work undertaken by many public services affected by alcohol misuse (NHS, emergency services, local councils, police, and community groups).
Recent research infers on the existence of an association between high density of alcohol outlets and alcohol related incidents (e.g. alcohol consumption, mortality, driving under the influence, violence). Other studies have addressed the trends in alcohol availability (density or proximity), associations with geographical areas of deprivation, or with alcohol related hospital admissions.
However, the quantification of the impact of these relations and a causality link between them has yet to be established, particularly in the UK, where tailored recommendations (considering outlet type and demographic characteristics) of limit densities of alcohol availability could inform the development of more effective alcohol policies.
This project proposes to understand the public health impact of geographical alcohol availability in the UK and to explore its associations to behaviours of consumption and misuse. We propose to investigate the spatial relationship between harm and consumption, and in particular, to characterise the spatial aspects of the relationship between demographics and outlets that are responsible for harm and problematic consumption.
The project aims to increase the effectiveness of policy making (with regards to limiting alcohol availability) and to feed into the work undertaken by many public services affected by alcohol misuse (NHS, emergency services, local councils, police, and community groups).
Technical Summary
The purpose of the project is to investigate the spatial epidemiology of alcohol availability, consumption and harm.
Understanding the impact of the geographical density of alcohol availability and to explore its associations to behaviours of consumption and misuse, is of great importance to inform alcohol regulation and prevention of misuse and harm in the UK.
We propose a spatial analysis of the relationship between alcohol outlet density and incidence of alcohol misuse and harm. To achieve this, we will develop
a model of spatial availability of alcohol (outlets) at local authority level for three urban areas in the UK, using spatial mathematics, graph theory, (network) topology, and spatial statistics to properly capture the notion of alcohol availability, considering density, proximity, accessibility (hours of operation, logistics). The use of spatial epidemiology, and uncertainty quantification will play an important role in this part of the project.
These models will be used to compare evidence regarding measures of outlet availability, and to explore the existence of local predicting mechanisms for harm and misuse based on outlet utility and availability. The project will also investigate trends in alcohol availability, consumption, and harm, in view of examining the existence of a causal relationship between them.
We propose the use of geographically fine, longitudinal data on type, location, and temporal availability of alcohol outlets; and will resource to the analysis of large routinely collected data. Data on operating alcohol outlets is usually not readily available from the UK government, thus will be obtained from commercial sources (market research companies) which are deemed to cover 98% of the UK's alcohol outlets. Geospatial data will then be obtained from the Office of National Statistics and large routine data on hospital admission and emergency services data will be obtained from NHS digital and ambulance trusts.
Understanding the impact of the geographical density of alcohol availability and to explore its associations to behaviours of consumption and misuse, is of great importance to inform alcohol regulation and prevention of misuse and harm in the UK.
We propose a spatial analysis of the relationship between alcohol outlet density and incidence of alcohol misuse and harm. To achieve this, we will develop
a model of spatial availability of alcohol (outlets) at local authority level for three urban areas in the UK, using spatial mathematics, graph theory, (network) topology, and spatial statistics to properly capture the notion of alcohol availability, considering density, proximity, accessibility (hours of operation, logistics). The use of spatial epidemiology, and uncertainty quantification will play an important role in this part of the project.
These models will be used to compare evidence regarding measures of outlet availability, and to explore the existence of local predicting mechanisms for harm and misuse based on outlet utility and availability. The project will also investigate trends in alcohol availability, consumption, and harm, in view of examining the existence of a causal relationship between them.
We propose the use of geographically fine, longitudinal data on type, location, and temporal availability of alcohol outlets; and will resource to the analysis of large routinely collected data. Data on operating alcohol outlets is usually not readily available from the UK government, thus will be obtained from commercial sources (market research companies) which are deemed to cover 98% of the UK's alcohol outlets. Geospatial data will then be obtained from the Office of National Statistics and large routine data on hospital admission and emergency services data will be obtained from NHS digital and ambulance trusts.
Planned Impact
It is anticipated that policy-makers within national, and local government, will benefit from this research, as science based evidence that would inform protocols and policy regulating alcohol availability. The project has the potential to increase the effectiveness of policy making (with regards to limiting alcohol availability) and to feed into the work undertaken by many public services affected by alcohol misuse (NHS, emergency services, local councils, police, and community groups).
It is expected that these findings will influence and inform alcohol policy within the time frame of the fellowship, the benefits of which could be measurable within a five to ten-year period.
It is expected that these findings will influence and inform alcohol policy within the time frame of the fellowship, the benefits of which could be measurable within a five to ten-year period.
