Extreme Climatic Events in the Oceans: Towards a mechanistic understanding of ecosystem impacts and resilience
Lead Research Organisation:
Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom
Department Name: Marine Biology
Abstract
Never before in recorded human history have there been as many extreme climatic events as in the past decade, and anthropogenic climate change is now recognised as a major contributor to this trend. Droughts, floods, cyclones, cold snaps and heat waves are all linked through Earth's climate systems and can have significant ecological and socio-economic impacts on land and in the oceans.
Despite growing appreciation of the importance of discrete, extreme events in determining ecosystem structure the vast majority of knowledge stems from terrestrial research, even though marine ecosystems play a central role culturally, socially and economically in the lives of most people. Marine ecosystems provide a myriad of ecological goods and services, including nutrient cycling, food and other resources, biogenic coastal defence and climate regulation, all of which have substantial socioeconomic value. Coral reefs, seagrass meadows and temperate kelp forests are particularly valuable in terms of capital generated from recreation, fishing activities, coastal defence and biodiversity, and contribute trillions of pounds to the global economy each year. In the UK alone, the estimated direct economic value of marine biodiversity exceeds £20 billion per year.
In marine environmental research, much attention has been given to ocean acidification and, more recently, plastic pollution, yet there is a strong argument to suggest that extreme warming events (i.e. 'marine heatwaves' (MHWs)) pose an even greater risk to ecosystems. In the past decade alone, MHWs have devastated entire ecosystems and severely affected fisheries, aquaculture, food webs and carbon cycling. The frequency and duration of MHWs has increased significantly in recent decades and is predicted to increase throughout the 21st Century, as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. Despite the unequivocal importance of MHWs in structuring ecosystems, our current understanding of their impacts remains poor. Knowledge of responses to MHWs stems from only a few events, such as the 1998 El Niño episode, the Mediterranean MHW of 2003 and the 2011 warming event off Western Australia. The 2011 MHW off Western Australia, for example, resulted in major shifts in benthic ecosystem structure in a tropical-temperate transition zone, by causing widespread mortality of cool-water habitat forming species.
This project will address critical knowledge gaps in marine climate change ecology. It will synthesise existing information on ecological responses to MHWs and use a novel analytical approach to conduct a global-scale analysis of their impacts. The project will also carry out a range of experiments and surveys to examine how key organisms and processes are affected by MHWs with differing physical attributes. Finally, predictions of future patterns and impacts of MHWs will be made, based on physical and ecological modelling techniques. This project will significantly advance understanding of the impacts of extreme climatic events in the global ocean and will be of direct relevant to climate change mitigation and adaptation, as society must safeguard valuable coastal marine ecosystems against increased climatic stress in the coming decades.
Despite growing appreciation of the importance of discrete, extreme events in determining ecosystem structure the vast majority of knowledge stems from terrestrial research, even though marine ecosystems play a central role culturally, socially and economically in the lives of most people. Marine ecosystems provide a myriad of ecological goods and services, including nutrient cycling, food and other resources, biogenic coastal defence and climate regulation, all of which have substantial socioeconomic value. Coral reefs, seagrass meadows and temperate kelp forests are particularly valuable in terms of capital generated from recreation, fishing activities, coastal defence and biodiversity, and contribute trillions of pounds to the global economy each year. In the UK alone, the estimated direct economic value of marine biodiversity exceeds £20 billion per year.
In marine environmental research, much attention has been given to ocean acidification and, more recently, plastic pollution, yet there is a strong argument to suggest that extreme warming events (i.e. 'marine heatwaves' (MHWs)) pose an even greater risk to ecosystems. In the past decade alone, MHWs have devastated entire ecosystems and severely affected fisheries, aquaculture, food webs and carbon cycling. The frequency and duration of MHWs has increased significantly in recent decades and is predicted to increase throughout the 21st Century, as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. Despite the unequivocal importance of MHWs in structuring ecosystems, our current understanding of their impacts remains poor. Knowledge of responses to MHWs stems from only a few events, such as the 1998 El Niño episode, the Mediterranean MHW of 2003 and the 2011 warming event off Western Australia. The 2011 MHW off Western Australia, for example, resulted in major shifts in benthic ecosystem structure in a tropical-temperate transition zone, by causing widespread mortality of cool-water habitat forming species.
This project will address critical knowledge gaps in marine climate change ecology. It will synthesise existing information on ecological responses to MHWs and use a novel analytical approach to conduct a global-scale analysis of their impacts. The project will also carry out a range of experiments and surveys to examine how key organisms and processes are affected by MHWs with differing physical attributes. Finally, predictions of future patterns and impacts of MHWs will be made, based on physical and ecological modelling techniques. This project will significantly advance understanding of the impacts of extreme climatic events in the global ocean and will be of direct relevant to climate change mitigation and adaptation, as society must safeguard valuable coastal marine ecosystems against increased climatic stress in the coming decades.
Planned Impact
Aside from significant academic impact, the research project will have considerable wider societal impact. The findings will be translated and fed into policy at both the national (e.g. MCCIP, CEFAS) and international (e.g. IPCC, ICES) level. Research on commercially-important species and habitats will be directly relevant for the aquaculture and fishing industries. Work on climate change-carbon cycle feedbacks will be of strategic significance to those working on Blue Carbon and climate change mitigation (e.g. IUCN, Blue Carbon Initiative). Throughout the project the importance of coastal marine ecosystems and threats posed by climate change stressors will be communicated widely to academics, industry, policy-makers and the wider public through a variety of channels.
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Organisations
- Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom (Lead Research Organisation)
- University of Western Australia (Collaboration, Project Partner)
- UNSW Sydney (Collaboration)
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Collaboration)
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Project Partner)
- Spanish National Research Council (Project Partner)
- Dalhousie University (Project Partner)
- Memorial University of Newfoundland (Project Partner)
Publications

Bass A
(2021)
Another Decade of Marine Climate Change Experiments: Trends, Progress and Knowledge Gaps
in Frontiers in Marine Science

Bass AV
(2023)
Marine heatwaves and decreased light availability interact to erode the ecophysiological performance of habitat-forming kelp species.
in Journal of phycology

Bosch N
(2021)
Niche and neutral assembly mechanisms contribute to latitudinal diversity gradients in reef fishes
in Journal of Biogeography

Brewin R
(2020)
Comparison of Two Methods for Measuring Sea Surface Temperature When Surfing
in Oceans

Bué M
(2020)
Multiple-scale interactions structure macroinvertebrate assemblages associated with kelp understory algae
in Diversity and Distributions

Corrigan S
(2023)
Development and Diversity of Epibiont Assemblages on Cultivated Sugar Kelp (Saccharina latissima) in Relation to Farming Schedules and Harvesting Techniques.
in Life (Basel, Switzerland)

Corrigan S
(2022)
Quantifying habitat provisioning at macroalgal cultivation sites
in Reviews in Aquaculture

Corrigan S
(2023)
Home sweet home: Comparison of epibiont assemblages associated with cultivated and wild sugar kelp (Saccharina latissima), co-cultivated blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) and farm infrastructure
in Journal of Applied Phycology

Duarte C
(2022)
Global estimates of the extent and production of macroalgal forests
in Global Ecology and Biogeography

Earp H
(2022)
A quantitative synthesis of approaches, biases, successes, and failures in marine forest restoration, with considerations for future work
in Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems
Description | Our work has shown the wide-ranging impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems globally. Key findings include (i) a quantification of the socioeconomic impacts of marine heatwaves; (ii) a greater understanding of how climate change impacts on fisheries species and (iii) improved knowledge of ocean carbon sinks, which is directly relevant to Net Zero and climate change mitigation. |
Exploitation Route | Our work informs ocean managers and stakeholders (i.e. fisheries/aquaculture, conservation, carbon accounting) faced with issues relating to climate change impacts. |
Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Environment |
Description | Our work on climate change impacts was heavily cited by the AR6 of the IPCC and by various policy documents Our work on Blue Carbon has been cited by the UK Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology |
First Year Of Impact | 2021 |
Sector | Environment |
Impact Types | Societal Policy & public services |
Description | UKRI FLF extension |
Amount | £700,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Medical Research Council (MRC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 01/2024 |
End | 12/2026 |
Description | International Working Group on Marine Heatwaves |
Organisation | Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation |
Department | CSIRO Hobart |
Country | Australia |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | I co-convened an international, multidisciplinary working group on marine heatwaves in 2015. The group has met in person on 5 occasions and on-line many times. We have produced many scientific papers, general articles for the wider public, and documents for policy-influencers (eg IUCN). |
Collaborator Contribution | Partners bring expertise in physical oceanography, social sciences, fisheries management and marine policy |
Impact | We have produced many scientific papers, general articles for the wider public, and documents for policy-influencers (eg IUCN). |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | International Working Group on Marine Heatwaves |
Organisation | University of New South Wales |
Country | Australia |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | I co-convened an international, multidisciplinary working group on marine heatwaves in 2015. The group has met in person on 5 occasions and on-line many times. We have produced many scientific papers, general articles for the wider public, and documents for policy-influencers (eg IUCN). |
Collaborator Contribution | Partners bring expertise in physical oceanography, social sciences, fisheries management and marine policy |
Impact | We have produced many scientific papers, general articles for the wider public, and documents for policy-influencers (eg IUCN). |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | International Working Group on Marine Heatwaves |
Organisation | University of Western Australia |
Country | Australia |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | I co-convened an international, multidisciplinary working group on marine heatwaves in 2015. The group has met in person on 5 occasions and on-line many times. We have produced many scientific papers, general articles for the wider public, and documents for policy-influencers (eg IUCN). |
Collaborator Contribution | Partners bring expertise in physical oceanography, social sciences, fisheries management and marine policy |
Impact | We have produced many scientific papers, general articles for the wider public, and documents for policy-influencers (eg IUCN). |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | Invited keynote presentation at Coastal Futures meeting, London 2020 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Keynote attended CF attended by ~500 marine scientists, policy makers and practitioners. Increased awareness of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems in UK |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Invited keynote presentation at annual BPS meeting, Swansea |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Invited talk at annual British Phycological Meeting. Broad range of attendees and wide-ranging discussions |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Invited seminar for Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Invited online seminar for Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS). Broad audience and wide ranging discussions |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |