Modelling Magma Movement: linking indirect observations with dynamic processes
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Liverpool
Department Name: Earth, Ocean and Ecological Sciences
Abstract
In this fellowship I will deliver the next generation of magma-filled fracture models, by building on my track record of developing novel methodologies and applying a multidisciplinary approach to instigate a step change in eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard assessment. The communication revolution requires rapid and reliable decision making in the lead up to and during volcanic crises, but existing models of magma sub-surface flow are insufficient to allow this. We need to identify the conditions under which different magma flow regimes and host-rock deformation modes dominate, because these directly affect the eruption potential of underground magma. We need to recognise how magma ascent pathways and eruption potential are influenced by petrological characteristics, 3D geometry and heat transfer. We need to ground-truth our theoretical, physical and chemical understanding in exposed ancient volcanic plumbing systems. Finally, we need to synthesise insight from analogue, mathematical and field experiments and enable these combined models to be deployed to improve the accuracy and reliability of volcanic eruption forecasts.
I will use my multidisciplinary expertise in volcanic plumbing systems and work closely with Project Partners from academia and government organisations to integrate analogue modelling, mathematical modelling, geophysical observations and geological analyses of volcanic systems to build the next generation of dyke and sill models. I will use novel imaging techniques combined with analogue modelling to couple the dynamics of magma intrusion and host-rock deformation with the associated surface distortions. I will develop cutting-edge mathematical models to explore the thermal, petrological and geometric behaviour of magma intrusions, considering magma flow dynamics and host-rock deformation, from propagation to solidification. I will perform state-of-the-art field experiments on two complementary and distinct suites of intrusions and use laboratory techniques to understand how the magma flow and host rock deformation occurred. I will compare field, analogue and mathematical model insights and collaborate with volcano and space observatories to test and develop them so they can be integrated into geohazard assessment systems. These models will form part of the international infrastructure of volcanic hazard assessment used to significantly minimise the human and economic cost of volcanic eruptions.
I will use my multidisciplinary expertise in volcanic plumbing systems and work closely with Project Partners from academia and government organisations to integrate analogue modelling, mathematical modelling, geophysical observations and geological analyses of volcanic systems to build the next generation of dyke and sill models. I will use novel imaging techniques combined with analogue modelling to couple the dynamics of magma intrusion and host-rock deformation with the associated surface distortions. I will develop cutting-edge mathematical models to explore the thermal, petrological and geometric behaviour of magma intrusions, considering magma flow dynamics and host-rock deformation, from propagation to solidification. I will perform state-of-the-art field experiments on two complementary and distinct suites of intrusions and use laboratory techniques to understand how the magma flow and host rock deformation occurred. I will compare field, analogue and mathematical model insights and collaborate with volcano and space observatories to test and develop them so they can be integrated into geohazard assessment systems. These models will form part of the international infrastructure of volcanic hazard assessment used to significantly minimise the human and economic cost of volcanic eruptions.
Planned Impact
I will focus the potential impact of my fellowship on four themes.
A) Volcanic Hazards
Aiming to provide mathematical models to aid the interpretation of surface and sub-surface rock deformation signals and improve hazard assessments at volcanoes. This will be achieved through the involvement of key Project Partners at major volcano observatories: Geophysicist Dr. Mike Poland (USGS) is Scientist-in-Charge of the USGS Yellowstone Volcano Observatory in the United States, and Dr. Francesca Bianco (INGV) is Director of Vesuvius Observatory in Italy. They have significant influence on national and international policy development and implementation related to volcanic hazard management and mitigation.
B) Earth Imaging
Aiming to provide evidence to earth observation organisations that will improve the assessment of satellite imaging techniques and influence the development of future sensors and satellite missions for the study of volcanological phenomena. To implement this, I will work closely with Project Partner Dr. Marco Bagnardi, from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, who is an expert in geodesy. I will use my models to quantify the uncertainties needed for Bagnardi's Bayesian statistics approach for the inversion of geophysical datasets related to volcano deformation. Through my work and Bagnardi's NASA Fellowship we have the potential influence the development of future NASA sensors and satellite missions.
C) Economic Geology
Aiming to provide evidence to industry partners which demonstrates how volcanic plumbing system dynamics affect the economic potential of industry projects. I am an Expert Panel member of the Horizon 2020 HiTechAlkCarb Project on Rare Earth Elements and retain close association with Prof. Steve Sparks (PhD supervisor) who co-leads the Porphyry Copper Deposit project associated with BHP Billiton at the University of Bristol. These contacts mean I can reach my economic geology stakeholders, who are representatives from the geothermal energy and economic exploration industries.
D) Science Education and Outreach
Aiming to provide educational materials to encourage the engagement of school children in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) subjects. I will do this by engaging key science education and outreach stakeholders, including the general public, school children and their teachers.
I will engage my various stakeholders in 5 ways:
1) Organising a multidisciplinary workshop to bring together academics, government representatives, staff from volcano observatories and industry.
2) Holding project meetings to bring together Liverpool earth scientists and social scientists working in volcanology.
3) Developing strong partnerships and working closely with volcano observatories (USGS, INGV) to model their data and maximise the models' relevance.
4) Continuing to contribute to the Liverpool CPD course for A Level Geology teachers, and continue regular engagement with outreach efforts (school visits and television/radio appearances).
5) Creating an online profile (project website, social media and YouTube channel), generating online educational materials for GeoHub Liverpool, and producing a project video.
Indicators of progress towards impact will be five-fold:
1) Uptake of my models to form part of the international infrastructure of volcanic hazard assessment, used to significantly minimise the human and economic cost of volcanic eruptions.
2) Uptake of the new inversion modelling methodologies I will develop for earth imaging of volcanoes.
3) The submission of large grant applications with physical and social scientists, engineers, project partners and industry partners.
4) Financial investment from industry to fund my research activities.
5) Positive engagement with social media and outreach activities, measured by social media interactions, google analytics, and surveys during outreach events.
A) Volcanic Hazards
Aiming to provide mathematical models to aid the interpretation of surface and sub-surface rock deformation signals and improve hazard assessments at volcanoes. This will be achieved through the involvement of key Project Partners at major volcano observatories: Geophysicist Dr. Mike Poland (USGS) is Scientist-in-Charge of the USGS Yellowstone Volcano Observatory in the United States, and Dr. Francesca Bianco (INGV) is Director of Vesuvius Observatory in Italy. They have significant influence on national and international policy development and implementation related to volcanic hazard management and mitigation.
B) Earth Imaging
Aiming to provide evidence to earth observation organisations that will improve the assessment of satellite imaging techniques and influence the development of future sensors and satellite missions for the study of volcanological phenomena. To implement this, I will work closely with Project Partner Dr. Marco Bagnardi, from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, who is an expert in geodesy. I will use my models to quantify the uncertainties needed for Bagnardi's Bayesian statistics approach for the inversion of geophysical datasets related to volcano deformation. Through my work and Bagnardi's NASA Fellowship we have the potential influence the development of future NASA sensors and satellite missions.
C) Economic Geology
Aiming to provide evidence to industry partners which demonstrates how volcanic plumbing system dynamics affect the economic potential of industry projects. I am an Expert Panel member of the Horizon 2020 HiTechAlkCarb Project on Rare Earth Elements and retain close association with Prof. Steve Sparks (PhD supervisor) who co-leads the Porphyry Copper Deposit project associated with BHP Billiton at the University of Bristol. These contacts mean I can reach my economic geology stakeholders, who are representatives from the geothermal energy and economic exploration industries.
D) Science Education and Outreach
Aiming to provide educational materials to encourage the engagement of school children in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) subjects. I will do this by engaging key science education and outreach stakeholders, including the general public, school children and their teachers.
I will engage my various stakeholders in 5 ways:
1) Organising a multidisciplinary workshop to bring together academics, government representatives, staff from volcano observatories and industry.
2) Holding project meetings to bring together Liverpool earth scientists and social scientists working in volcanology.
3) Developing strong partnerships and working closely with volcano observatories (USGS, INGV) to model their data and maximise the models' relevance.
4) Continuing to contribute to the Liverpool CPD course for A Level Geology teachers, and continue regular engagement with outreach efforts (school visits and television/radio appearances).
5) Creating an online profile (project website, social media and YouTube channel), generating online educational materials for GeoHub Liverpool, and producing a project video.
Indicators of progress towards impact will be five-fold:
1) Uptake of my models to form part of the international infrastructure of volcanic hazard assessment, used to significantly minimise the human and economic cost of volcanic eruptions.
2) Uptake of the new inversion modelling methodologies I will develop for earth imaging of volcanoes.
3) The submission of large grant applications with physical and social scientists, engineers, project partners and industry partners.
4) Financial investment from industry to fund my research activities.
5) Positive engagement with social media and outreach activities, measured by social media interactions, google analytics, and surveys during outreach events.
Organisations
- University of Liverpool (Fellow, Lead Research Organisation)
- National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) (Collaboration)
- GNS Science (Collaboration)
- Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra Jaume Almera (Collaboration)
- Uppsala University (Collaboration, Project Partner)
- Institute of Geophysics (Collaboration)
- United States Geological Survey (Collaboration, Project Partner)
- Monash University (Collaboration)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Project Partner)
- Spanish National Research Council (Project Partner)
- Czech Academy of Sciences (Project Partner)
- National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (Project Partner)
People |
ORCID iD |
Janine Kavanagh (Principal Investigator / Fellow) |
Publications
Burchardt S
(2022)
Developments in the study of volcanic and igneous plumbing systems: outstanding problems and new opportunities
in Bulletin of Volcanology
Kavanagh J
(2022)
Volcanologists-who are we and where are we going?
in Bulletin of Volcanology
Martin S
(2022)
Deciphering syn- and post-emplacement processes in shallow mafic dykes using magnetic anisotropy
in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
Van Der Boon, A.
(2022)
Magnetic to the Core - communicating palaeomagnetism with hands-on activities
in Geoscience Communication
Williams K
(2022)
Focused flow during the formation and propagation of sills: Insights from analogue experiments
in Earth and Planetary Science Letters
Description | My research has included creation of outreach materials and delivery of public engagement events, and I have been collecting data to measure the effectiveness of these initiatives to impact education. My resources are included on e.g. geohubliverpool.org.uk and events I have organised include the Herdman Symposium and a series of film screenings and a panel discussion for International Women's Day 2022). I have also been engaged in efforts to increase equality, diversity and inclusion in volcanology, with a publication accepted now on this in the Bulletin of Volcanology (doi not yet available): https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/2769/ This publication is causing policy development change in leading volcanology organizations and geoscience organizations around the world. |
First Year Of Impact | 2022 |
Sector | Education,Environment,Other |
Impact Types | Societal,Policy & public services |
Description | Tektonika Diamond Open Access Journal - Co-founder |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Description | VMSG Equality, Diversity and Inclusion Report |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Impact | A report summarising the diversity of VMSG members and their contributions to annual conferences. A set of recommended future actions included aimed to improve EDI in volcanological research in the UK. |
URL | https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/70/ |
Description | VMSG Members Survey |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Impact | A report published on the membership of the volcanological research community and their views in the UK |
URL | https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/66/ |
Description | NERC Cross-Disciplinary Research for Environmental Sciences Discovery |
Amount | £11,388 (GBP) |
Organisation | University of Liverpool |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 11/2022 |
End | 03/2023 |
Description | Particles to Planets: Unravelling the history of our magnetic field |
Amount | £649,335 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/W006707/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 10/2022 |
End | 10/2025 |
Description | Talent and Research Stabilisation Fund |
Amount | £15,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | University of Liverpool |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 11/2022 |
End | 03/2023 |
Description | Adelina Geyer |
Organisation | Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra Jaume Almera |
Country | Spain |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Analogue modelling results and information from natural case studies |
Collaborator Contribution | Numerical modelling expertise using COMSOL multiphysics |
Impact | IAVCEI 2023, poster presentation, New Zealand |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | Antonio Costa |
Organisation | National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) |
Country | Italy |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Hiring of postdoctoral researcher Dr. Caitlin Chalk Numerical model development |
Collaborator Contribution | Numerical model development Facilitate access to Barcelona Supercomputing Center |
Impact | Multidisciplinary collaboration: geology, geophysics, mathematics, engineering |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | Catherine Annen |
Organisation | Institute of Geophysics |
Country | Czech Republic |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Analogue experiment expertise |
Collaborator Contribution | Numerical modelling expertise |
Impact | IAVCEI conference presentation |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | Geoff Kilgour |
Organisation | GNS Science |
Country | New Zealand |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | University of Liverpool PhD studentship |
Collaborator Contribution | Agreement for 3-month placement for student to commence 2022 |
Impact | Geothermal energy focus (structural geology, volcanology) |
Start Year | 2021 |
Description | Mike Poland |
Organisation | US Geological Survey |
Country | United States |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Kick-off meeting to start project |
Collaborator Contribution | Agreement to host Dr Kavanagh at the Cascades Volcano Observatory and facilitate visits to other volcano observatories in the United States. Agreement to assist with acquiring data that can be used to evaluate mathematical and analogue models. |
Impact | A multidisciplinary collaboration: geology, geophysics, geodesy, mathematics |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | Prokop Zavada |
Organisation | Institute of Geophysics |
Country | Czech Republic |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Conceptualisation of analogue experiments Analyisis of experimental data Preparation of manuscript |
Collaborator Contribution | Access to experimental facility Assist with manuscript preparation |
Impact | Multidisciplinary: geology, geophysics, rock magnetism Manuscript in review with Earth and Planetary Science Letters |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | Ray Cas |
Organisation | Monash University |
Country | Australia |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Organising field visit planned for April 2020 |
Collaborator Contribution | Facilitating field visit planned for April 2020 |
Impact | Field visit postponed due to COVID |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | Steffi Burchardt |
Organisation | Uppsala University |
Country | Sweden |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Involvement with planning for preliminary fieldwork to Iceland for Summer 2021 |
Collaborator Contribution | Planning for preliminary fieldwork to Iceland for Summer 2021 |
Impact | Multidisciplinary collaboration: structural geology, volcanology, rock magnetism, microstructural mineral analysis IAVCEI conference presentations |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | Co-organiser of VIPS Commission virtual seminar series |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Launched seminar series focus on cutting edge research in volcanic plumbing systems. The first talk was by Professor Jon Blundy, Oxford University, and there were ~450 international attendees. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://vipscommission.org/event-type/guest-talks/ |
Description | Czech Geophysical Institute International Advisory Board member |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Advisory group overseeing policy development for the institute |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020,2023 |
Description | Designer of GeoHub Liverpool website and YouTube channel content |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | GeoHub Liverpool is an online educational resource for geoscience teachers and students. I lead the development of a new website and created a YouTube channel from which resources can be distributed and shared. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020,2021,2022 |
URL | https://geohubliverpool.org.uk/ |
Description | IAVCEI Commission on VIPS website creation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Created, co-designed and launched a new website for the IAVCEI Commission on Volcanic and Igneous Plumbing Systems. I am the President and co-founder of the group. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021,2022 |
URL | https://vipscommission.org/ |
Description | IAVCEI ECR-Net Forum |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Invited to lead panel discussion centred on my research paper "Volcanologists - Who are we and where are we going?" Led to invitation to co-author new EDI paper focused on impact on Covid on volcanology research |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | International Women's Day 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | The activity included a panel discussion and public screenings of the documentary 'Picture a Scientist' - themes discussed related to harassment and discrimination of women in academia. The events were open to the public but mostly attended by University staff and students. Following this, a new screening is being organised just for Deans and Heads of School across my Faculty so that senior leaders n the University are more aware of the issues raised. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/earth-ocean-and-ecological-sciences/news/stories/title,1301101,en.html |
Description | Invited Talk - International Women Day |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Undergraduate students |
Results and Impact | Invited to speak about my career as part of a panel discussion focused on Women in Geosciences |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020,2021 |
Description | Organiser of VMSG Panel Discussion on #BlackLivesMatter |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | "Addressing inequalities in the VMSG community: A series of virtual discussion meetings" Main findings and actions which came from three virtual panel discussions on 'Addressing inequalities in the VMSG Community' which were held in 2020 and were inspired by the #BlackLivesMatter protests. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLTQB1DrZpoVwDAQTi1eZjgjvVkC7hhGna |
Description | Organiser of the annual "Herdman Symposium" |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | 300 participants A virtual event, now available on YouTube Back to in-person in 2023, included new panel discussion |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020,2021,2022,2023 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCitZFP-tx0JgDMDTJRH0hQQ |
Description | Organiser of virtual VMSG Conference |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Annual conference of the Volcanic Magmatic Studies Group (a special interest group of the Geological Society of London) |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLTQB1DrZpoVx3NWAy-ktlaFnur_lARutY |
Description | School visit (Dorset) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Presentation 'A journey into a volcanic plumbing system' - also including aspects about career |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021,2022 |
Description | School visit: Pleasant St School Year 3, Liverpool |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Presentation, workbook exercises, creation of volcano art |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018,2022 |
Description | School visit: Ramridge Primary School Year 3 & Year 5, Luton |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Presentation, workbook exercises, creation of volcano art |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | School visit: St John Bosco College for Girls, Liverpool - Year 12 Geography group |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Presentation, analogue experiments |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | UKRI FLF Conference 2020 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Virtual poster presentation along with other UKRI Future Leaders Fellows |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | VolcanoFest IAVCEI 2023 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Contribution to art exhibit in New Zealand - created posters using volcano art work created by year 3 and year 5 students from Liverpool (place of work) and home town (Luton). Contribution of analogue experiment guidelines for teachers handbook. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |