Constraints on the tempo and magnitude of explosive arc volcanism: facilitating long-term ash fall hazard assessments
Lead Research Organisation:
Swansea University
Department Name: College of Science
Abstract
Explosive volcanic eruptions have devastating impacts in near-vent areas where pyroclastic density currents can cause significant loss of life, yet the injection of large volumes of ash into the atmosphere and its subsequent dispersal over hundreds to thousands of kilometres, pose significant and far-reaching hazards. Ash fall is a severe and wide-ranging volcanic hazard; causing roof collapse, health (respiratory) and agricultural issues and wide-scale interruptions to essential infrastructure (e.g., electricity, food/water supplies; roads and rail closures). Even ash emitted during moderately explosive eruptions can ground air traffic as was demonstrated by the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption (Iceland). As such widespread volcanic ash dispersals present huge economic and societal costs.
Disturbingly, 800 million people live within 100 km of active volcanoes globally, yet statistical studies of detailed eruption databases (e.g., Japan) reveal significant under-recording of past volcanic eruptions deeper in time. Our understanding of the magnitude and frequency of eruptions at a particular volcano is typically skewed to recent activities, because records of older eruptions are fragmentary often owing to erosion and/or burial by more recent eruptions. The better-preserved, shorter-term records, however, do not necessarily reflect the full range of volcanic activity, or variations in the tempo of activity. This is a major obstacle for long-term volcanic hazard assessments and hampers our ability to: i) determine changing eruption-rates through time, ii) evaluate magnitude-frequency relationships and iii) project the recurrence intervals of hazardous ash dispersals.
This research will overcome this impasse and reconstruct comprehensive long-term records of explosive volcanism for productive arc volcanoes. It will exploit the under-utilised record of ash layers preserved in dense networks of marine sediment cores. These continuous sequences represent unprecedented repositories of ash fall (preserved as visible and microscopic deposits), which are not susceptible to destructive near-source processes. Using state-of-the-art geochemical 'fingerprinting' techniques, it is possible to pinpoint the volcanic source of the marine ash layers, whilst tracing these ash fall events across a network of cores provides a unique opportunity to computationally model and map ash dispersals, and calculate eruption magnitudes. Cutting-edge argon-argon dating techniques to directly date the ash deposits, will reveal the tempo of past explosive eruptions at an individual volcano, and importantly determine the recurrence intervals of widespread hazardous volcanic ash dispersals from these volcanoes.
With evidence for near-source under-reporting of explosive volcanic activity emanating from Japanese eruption records, this research will begin by utilising a wealth of marine sediment records from around the Japanese Islands, including those of the International Ocean Discovery Programme (IODP) and the Geological Survey of Japan (AIST). This research will then look to expand into other productive volcanic arc settings, particularly those that are vulnerable owing to inadequate records of explosive volcanism (e.g., circum-Pacific volcanic arcs). These new offshore volcanological records will be examined in partnership with those directly responsible for hazard/risk assessments at individual volcanoes and policy-makers working in this field.
Disturbingly, 800 million people live within 100 km of active volcanoes globally, yet statistical studies of detailed eruption databases (e.g., Japan) reveal significant under-recording of past volcanic eruptions deeper in time. Our understanding of the magnitude and frequency of eruptions at a particular volcano is typically skewed to recent activities, because records of older eruptions are fragmentary often owing to erosion and/or burial by more recent eruptions. The better-preserved, shorter-term records, however, do not necessarily reflect the full range of volcanic activity, or variations in the tempo of activity. This is a major obstacle for long-term volcanic hazard assessments and hampers our ability to: i) determine changing eruption-rates through time, ii) evaluate magnitude-frequency relationships and iii) project the recurrence intervals of hazardous ash dispersals.
This research will overcome this impasse and reconstruct comprehensive long-term records of explosive volcanism for productive arc volcanoes. It will exploit the under-utilised record of ash layers preserved in dense networks of marine sediment cores. These continuous sequences represent unprecedented repositories of ash fall (preserved as visible and microscopic deposits), which are not susceptible to destructive near-source processes. Using state-of-the-art geochemical 'fingerprinting' techniques, it is possible to pinpoint the volcanic source of the marine ash layers, whilst tracing these ash fall events across a network of cores provides a unique opportunity to computationally model and map ash dispersals, and calculate eruption magnitudes. Cutting-edge argon-argon dating techniques to directly date the ash deposits, will reveal the tempo of past explosive eruptions at an individual volcano, and importantly determine the recurrence intervals of widespread hazardous volcanic ash dispersals from these volcanoes.
With evidence for near-source under-reporting of explosive volcanic activity emanating from Japanese eruption records, this research will begin by utilising a wealth of marine sediment records from around the Japanese Islands, including those of the International Ocean Discovery Programme (IODP) and the Geological Survey of Japan (AIST). This research will then look to expand into other productive volcanic arc settings, particularly those that are vulnerable owing to inadequate records of explosive volcanism (e.g., circum-Pacific volcanic arcs). These new offshore volcanological records will be examined in partnership with those directly responsible for hazard/risk assessments at individual volcanoes and policy-makers working in this field.
Planned Impact
Geological Survey of Japan, Volcanological Society of Japan and Japanese Meteorological Agency: The research emanating from this proposal will directly influence policy-makers involved in volcanic hazard/risk assessments and mitigation on the volcanoes of Japan. Mapping of hazardous widespread ash dispersal and their recurrence intervals will be fundamental to informing long term urban and infrastructure planning. The findings of this research will also be received with interest by the Japanese Civil Aviation Bureau, and the Tokyo Volcanic Ash Advisory Center.
Japanese population: New knowledge exchange between this project and the agencies discussed above will benefit the people living in the immediate vicinity of active volcanoes, but also more widely across the country.
Residents of Fukui prefecture, Honshu Island Japan: the new research will be incorporated into the Lake Suigetsu Varve Museum (see Pathways to Impact). This will help expand the exhibitions of the museum, and help sustain wider visitor numbers. This will contribute to helping expand Geotourism in this rural area of Japan, driving the local economy. The displays at the museum will also be of interest to the general public of Japan (those interested in past volcanism and climate).
Policy-makers beyond Japan: The long-records of explosive volcanism generated here will be incorporated into Global Eruption Databases, improving our understanding of eruption frequencies and magnitude, which is essential for evaluating recurrence intervals of large magnitude and catastrophic eruptions.
Interest Public's in the UK (Those interested in volcanoes). This research aims to put UK volcanological science into the popular science spotlight.
Japanese population: New knowledge exchange between this project and the agencies discussed above will benefit the people living in the immediate vicinity of active volcanoes, but also more widely across the country.
Residents of Fukui prefecture, Honshu Island Japan: the new research will be incorporated into the Lake Suigetsu Varve Museum (see Pathways to Impact). This will help expand the exhibitions of the museum, and help sustain wider visitor numbers. This will contribute to helping expand Geotourism in this rural area of Japan, driving the local economy. The displays at the museum will also be of interest to the general public of Japan (those interested in past volcanism and climate).
Policy-makers beyond Japan: The long-records of explosive volcanism generated here will be incorporated into Global Eruption Databases, improving our understanding of eruption frequencies and magnitude, which is essential for evaluating recurrence intervals of large magnitude and catastrophic eruptions.
Interest Public's in the UK (Those interested in volcanoes). This research aims to put UK volcanological science into the popular science spotlight.
Organisations
Publications
Di Roberto A
(2020)
Evidence for a large-magnitude Holocene eruption of Mount Rittmann (Antarctica): A volcanological reconstruction using the marine tephra record
in Quaternary Science Reviews
McLean D
(2020)
Constraints on the Timing of Explosive Volcanism at Aso and Aira Calderas (Japan) Between 50 and 30 ka: New Insights From the Lake Suigetsu Sedimentary Record (SG14 Core)
in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems
McLean D
(2022)
How reliable is µXRF core scanning at detecting tephra layers in sedimentary records? A case study using the Lake Suigetsu archive (central Japan)
in Journal of Quaternary Science
Meschiari S
(2020)
Frequent activity on Vulcano (Italy) spanning the last 80 ky: New insights from the chemo-stratigraphy of the Brown Tuffs
in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
Monaco L
(2022)
Linking the Mediterranean MIS 5 tephra markers to Campi Flegrei (southern Italy) 109-92 ka explosive activity and refining the chronology of MIS 5c-d millennial-scale climate variability
in Global and Planetary Change
Monaco L
(2021)
Mediterranean tephrostratigraphy and peri-Tyrrhenian explosive activity revaluated in light of the 430-365 ka record from Fucino Basin (central Italy)
in Earth-Science Reviews
Panaretos P
(2021)
Distal ash fall from the mid-Holocene eruption of Mount Hudson (H2) discovered in the Falkland Islands: New possibilities for Southern Hemisphere archive synchronisation
in Quaternary Science Reviews
Pistolesi M
(2021)
Chrono-stratigraphy of the youngest (last 1500 years) rhyolitic eruptions of Lipari (Aeolian Islands, Southern Italy) and implications for distal tephra correlations
in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
Description | By examining discrete visible and cryptic (non-visible) volcanic ash layers preserved in sediment cores extracted from the ocean floor (e.g., Sea of Japan) and lake basins (e.g., Lake Suigetsu, Honshu) our research has revealed many instances of volcanic eruption under-reporting at multiple Japanese/Korean volcanoes. Our findings would indicate that near-source eruption deposits preserved in the geological record are often erroneously grouped, thus considered to reflect a single large eruption. However, in many cases the associated ash layers in the sedimentary record indicate multiple closely-spaced volcanic eruptions, which are temporally separate events. This has significant implication for eruption magnitude/volume estimates, and the reoccurrence intervals (frequency) of hazardous eruptions at multiple volcanoes in the region. |
Exploitation Route | We are working with those responsible for evaluating volcanic hazards at Japanese volcanoes. A more accurate reconstruction of past activity at many Japanese volcanoes is essential to improving the accuracy of their hazard assessments and forecasts. |
Sectors | Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice |
Description | The identification and information (e.g., age, source volcano) of ash layers associated with pre-historic Japanese eruptions preserved in the Lake Suigetsu sediment are incorporated into the Fukui Prefectural Varve Museum, located next to Lake Suigetsu, Honshu Island, Japan. These discoveries are contribute to educational displays and activities at the Museum. |
First Year Of Impact | 2020 |
Sector | Education |
Impact Types | Cultural,Societal |
Description | SWANSEA UNIVERSITY POSTGRADUATE RESEARCH SCHOLARSHIP |
Amount | £46,827 (GBP) |
Organisation | Swansea University |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 04/2022 |
End | 03/2025 |
Description | Volcanic hazards talks - La Palma eruption fundraising event |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Volcanic hazard talks: in partnership with colleague Dr. Preece (Swansea Uni.) the focus of our talks were on the eruption of La Palma. The event was organized by the local Volcano Theatre in Swansea to raise money for the population of La Palma, affected by the ongoing eruption at the time. It was divided into two sessions, one for children, and a second for adults. The talks discussed the volcanic history of the island, and the hazards associated with volcanic activity. The adult audience were particularly interested in discussing the implications and hazards associated with more explosive volcanic eruptions than were being observed on La Palma, with many questions then focusing on the activities of the 79AD eruption of Vesuvius and the destruction of Pompeii. We also presented volcano experiments - demonstrating the ascent of magma during a volcanic eruption. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |