The Net-Zero Emissions Challenge: Quantifying unintended climate feedbacks from large-scale deployment of land-based CO2 removal strategies
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Sheffield
Department Name: School of Biosciences
Abstract
Over the past decades, carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the atmosphere have increased rapidly, to the point that the Earth's temperature has not fully adjusted to the new warmer climate. This means that even if carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were instantaneously reduced to zero, the Earth would still transition to a warmer climate. In 2015, an ambitious agreement was signed in Paris to limit global warming below 2C degrees and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5C. Global temperatures have already increased by more than 1C above pre-industrial levels. Computer simulations, used to understand what can happen to the climate in the future, have shown that delivering on the Paris Climate Agreement will require both drastic reductions of GHG emissions and use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies leading to near-zero or negative emissions by 2100. To achieve this goal, society will be required, by 2050, to remove more GHGs from the atmosphere than those released.
Afforestation/reforestation, wetland restoration, enhanced weathering and bioenergy crops are four proposed land-based CDR strategies that seek to remove CO2 in the biosphere by accelerating natural processes that are already occurring within the natural Earth cycle. These CDR strategies are recognized by the United Nations and have varying levels of technological readiness. However, unidentified environmental risks (e.g., increased non-CO2 GHG emissions) due to complex interactions between these CDR strategies, land and atmosphere are not fully understood and quantified. Therefore, while these strategies may practically remove CO2 from the atmosphere, they might not effectively stop future warming. Understanding the effectiveness of CDR efforts is critical to help society and policy makers design mitigation and adaptation approaches for tackling climate change.
This Fellowship proposes the UK first integrated study for quantifying specifically the environmental risks associated with the large-scale deployment of these four land-based CDR strategies. To address this important challenge, this Fellowship will develop a coordinated cross-disciplinary earth system science framework, which will combine new information from field experiments and surface and satellite earth observations with the next generation of computer simulations. This Fellowship will also leverage my strong interdisciplinary research background in atmosphere-biosphere-climate interactions and the expertise of internationally recognized collaborators and UK partners, the UK Government and the World Wildlife Fund to establish a world-leading group for understanding human intervention in the climate system, which will guide society and policy makers towards the most appropriate pathways to reach net-zero emissions.
Afforestation/reforestation, wetland restoration, enhanced weathering and bioenergy crops are four proposed land-based CDR strategies that seek to remove CO2 in the biosphere by accelerating natural processes that are already occurring within the natural Earth cycle. These CDR strategies are recognized by the United Nations and have varying levels of technological readiness. However, unidentified environmental risks (e.g., increased non-CO2 GHG emissions) due to complex interactions between these CDR strategies, land and atmosphere are not fully understood and quantified. Therefore, while these strategies may practically remove CO2 from the atmosphere, they might not effectively stop future warming. Understanding the effectiveness of CDR efforts is critical to help society and policy makers design mitigation and adaptation approaches for tackling climate change.
This Fellowship proposes the UK first integrated study for quantifying specifically the environmental risks associated with the large-scale deployment of these four land-based CDR strategies. To address this important challenge, this Fellowship will develop a coordinated cross-disciplinary earth system science framework, which will combine new information from field experiments and surface and satellite earth observations with the next generation of computer simulations. This Fellowship will also leverage my strong interdisciplinary research background in atmosphere-biosphere-climate interactions and the expertise of internationally recognized collaborators and UK partners, the UK Government and the World Wildlife Fund to establish a world-leading group for understanding human intervention in the climate system, which will guide society and policy makers towards the most appropriate pathways to reach net-zero emissions.
Planned Impact
Results from this UK RI Fellowship on the use of land-based CO2 removal strategies to meet climate objectives will bring important benefits to international and domestic governments, society and UK economy.
The UK Government has the commitment to "provide international leadership and lead by example in tacking climate change" and "support and protect international forests and sustainable agriculture", as outlined its 25-year Environmental Plan. The recently published UK Committee on Climate Change (CCC) Net Zero report also states that the "UK should legislate as soon as possible to reach net-zero GHG emissions by 2050". This Fellowship aligns directly with these ambitious goals, and results will feed directly into the UK Government (e.g., BEIS, DEFRA and UK CCC) when formulating strategies to achieve the grand domestic effort of decarbonisation and improving the environment.
At an international level, the Fellowship is directly linked to the World Climate Research Program Grand Challenges in "Carbon Feedbacks in the Climate System" and to the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of "Climate Action" and "Life on Land". The UN identified 17 SDGs with the objective of transforming the world for the better by 2030. Research results from this Fellowship will also feed directly into the upcoming IPCC reports, which will inform the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) discussions and policy.
Under the UNFCC umbrella, the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, in which over 190 countries committed to establish a global action plan to stop climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5C. There is a strong commitment from many nations in the world to use land management to mitigate climate change. For example, the global Bonn Challenge plans to bring 150 million hectares of deforested and degraded land into restoration by 2020 and 350 million hectares by 2030; the UN programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (REDD+). As a part of Paris Agreement ratification, countries are required to submit Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) and later Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The INDC/NDCs describe each country's plan to mitigate and adapt to future climate change, and some INDC/NDCs depend on strong land-based mitigation strategies. This Fellowship will help quantify the climate benefits associated with the land-use aspect of these action plans and will be of relevance to the governments that have set ambitious land-use targets (e.g. Brazil and China) and to those that are planning to do so.
Thus, this Fellowship will provide information relevant for policy implementation at many levels: in the UK (e.g., new policies post-brexit), in Europe (e.g., 2030 Climate and Energy Framework), and in the world (e.g., UNFCC, REDD+).
There are many national and international charities and NGOs campaigning for climate change mitigation and more sustainable forest and agriculture management, and wildlife conservation (e.g. WWF, EarthWatch, etc). This Fellowship will provide research results that can be transformed into information align within their work.
This Fellowship will also deliver an improved domestic earth system model, UK-ESM, which will feed back directly into the weather and climate prediction models at the MetOffice. These forecasting models are used operationally to provide weather forecast and climate projections. Future climate change will require mitigation and adaptation strategies, with immense costs to the society. Improved accuracy in climate projections will help ensure that resources are maximized and thus also contribute to the UK economic success.
The UK Government has the commitment to "provide international leadership and lead by example in tacking climate change" and "support and protect international forests and sustainable agriculture", as outlined its 25-year Environmental Plan. The recently published UK Committee on Climate Change (CCC) Net Zero report also states that the "UK should legislate as soon as possible to reach net-zero GHG emissions by 2050". This Fellowship aligns directly with these ambitious goals, and results will feed directly into the UK Government (e.g., BEIS, DEFRA and UK CCC) when formulating strategies to achieve the grand domestic effort of decarbonisation and improving the environment.
At an international level, the Fellowship is directly linked to the World Climate Research Program Grand Challenges in "Carbon Feedbacks in the Climate System" and to the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of "Climate Action" and "Life on Land". The UN identified 17 SDGs with the objective of transforming the world for the better by 2030. Research results from this Fellowship will also feed directly into the upcoming IPCC reports, which will inform the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) discussions and policy.
Under the UNFCC umbrella, the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, in which over 190 countries committed to establish a global action plan to stop climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5C. There is a strong commitment from many nations in the world to use land management to mitigate climate change. For example, the global Bonn Challenge plans to bring 150 million hectares of deforested and degraded land into restoration by 2020 and 350 million hectares by 2030; the UN programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (REDD+). As a part of Paris Agreement ratification, countries are required to submit Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) and later Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The INDC/NDCs describe each country's plan to mitigate and adapt to future climate change, and some INDC/NDCs depend on strong land-based mitigation strategies. This Fellowship will help quantify the climate benefits associated with the land-use aspect of these action plans and will be of relevance to the governments that have set ambitious land-use targets (e.g. Brazil and China) and to those that are planning to do so.
Thus, this Fellowship will provide information relevant for policy implementation at many levels: in the UK (e.g., new policies post-brexit), in Europe (e.g., 2030 Climate and Energy Framework), and in the world (e.g., UNFCC, REDD+).
There are many national and international charities and NGOs campaigning for climate change mitigation and more sustainable forest and agriculture management, and wildlife conservation (e.g. WWF, EarthWatch, etc). This Fellowship will provide research results that can be transformed into information align within their work.
This Fellowship will also deliver an improved domestic earth system model, UK-ESM, which will feed back directly into the weather and climate prediction models at the MetOffice. These forecasting models are used operationally to provide weather forecast and climate projections. Future climate change will require mitigation and adaptation strategies, with immense costs to the society. Improved accuracy in climate projections will help ensure that resources are maximized and thus also contribute to the UK economic success.
People |
ORCID iD |
Maria Val Martin (Principal Investigator / Fellow) |
Publications
Beerling DJ
(2024)
Enhanced weathering in the US Corn Belt delivers carbon removal with agronomic benefits.
in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Bhattarai H
(2024)
Impacts of changes in climate, land use, and emissions on global ozone air quality by mid-21st century following selected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.
in The Science of the total environment
Feng X
(2024)
Improved estimates of smoke exposure during Australia fire seasons: importance of quantifying plume injection heights
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Kantzas E
(2022)
Substantial carbon drawdown potential from enhanced rock weathering in the United Kingdom
in Nature Geoscience
Nowell HK
(2022)
Impacts of Sugarcane Fires on Air Quality and Public Health in South Florida.
in Environmental health perspectives
Redondo Bermúdez M
(2023)
A Practical Green Infrastructure Intervention to Mitigate Air Pollution in a UK School Playground
in Sustainability
Redondo-Bermúdez M
(2022)
Green infrastructure for air quality plus (GI4AQ+): Defining critical dimensions for implementation in schools and the meaning of 'plus' in a UK context
in Nature-Based Solutions
Val Martin M
(2023)
Improving nitrogen cycling in a land surface model (CLM5) to quantify soil N 2 O, NO, and NH 3 emissions from enhanced rock weathering with croplands
in Geoscientific Model Development
Description | The use of CO2 removal technologies, along with cutting emissions from fossil fuels, is crucial to meeting the Paris Agreement and Net Zero. Several land-based CDR strategies involving the terrestrial biosphere have been proposed, eg afforestation/reforestation, bioenergy crops, peatland restoration and enhanced rock weathering (ERW). However, because of unintended climate feedbacks (e.g., increased of other non-CO2 greenhouse gases like CH4 or changes in albedo), these strategies may remove CO2 without slowing future warming. A new finding from this award (accepted for publication) is that - in the UK- enhanced rock weathering, a CDR strategy that involves applying crushed silicate rock, e.g., basalt, to soils to sequester carbon, can remove about 6-30 Mt CO2/yr by 2050, representing up to 45% of the atmospheric carbon removal required nationally to meet net-zero. At the same time, ERW has the co-benefit of reducing soil N2O emissions up to 1.5 Mt CO2eq/yr by 2070, which is equivalent to up to a 20% reduction relative to croplands in 2010 and is comparable to other abatement strategies (eg fertilizer reduction, N inhibitors, N fixators, improved drainage, etc) |
Exploitation Route | Too early to comment |
Sectors | Environment |
Description | Under the UKRI FLF and in collaboration with colleages at University of Sheffield, I designed and evaluted the first School Street trail in Sheffield. We wrote a report for the Sheffield City Council that was used in 2021 to decide what Schools in Sheffield would have a School Streets established permanently Barnes, Amy; Val Martin (2020): How 'school streets' could create safer, healthier cities, The Conversation. Barnes, Amy; Val Martin, Maria; Rees, Nikki (2020): Bannerdale Road School Streets Pilot - Evaluation Summary. The University of Sheffield. Report. https://doi.org/10.15131/shef.data.13012406.v1 |
First Year Of Impact | 2021 |
Sector | Communities and Social Services/Policy,Environment |
Impact Types | Societal Policy & public services |
Description | policy briefing for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health |
URL | https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.22888646.v3 |
Title | Improved N cycling for a land model |
Description | Code for clm5.0.25 with improved N cycling to quantify soil N2O, NO and NH3 emissions from enhanced rock weathering with croplands. clm5.0.25 is within cesm2.1.2. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | 28 Views and 4 Downloads to date |
URL | https://zenodo.org/records/8111541 |
Title | New VOC emission factors for UKESM |
Description | Model data and analysis code with updated isoprene and terpene emission factors for the Interactive BVOC Emission Scheme (iBVOC) in the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM1.0) |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | 119 Views and 55 Downloads to date |
URL | https://zenodo.org/records/7741131 |
Description | Porting OptClim Optimisation system to ARCHER2 |
Organisation | British Antarctic Survey |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | I provide guidence in the implementation and testing with CESM2 |
Collaborator Contribution | Porting OptClim Optimisation system to ARCHER2 |
Impact | The outcomes will be the following: *Design modifications to OptClim appropriate for a generic model and able to interface to each of the exemplar UKESM, MITgcm, CESM2 models *Implement and test modifications to OptClim to run with the simplest model, MITgcm-ECCO *Implement and test with UKESM1 for optimisation and for particle filtering *Implement and test with CESM2 *Facilitate use of OptClim and training This is a multidisciplinary partnership that involves atmospheric and climate models and computer scientists. |
Start Year | 2021 |
Description | Porting OptClim Optimisation system to ARCHER2 |
Organisation | University of Edinburgh |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | I provide guidence in the implementation and testing with CESM2 |
Collaborator Contribution | Porting OptClim Optimisation system to ARCHER2 |
Impact | The outcomes will be the following: *Design modifications to OptClim appropriate for a generic model and able to interface to each of the exemplar UKESM, MITgcm, CESM2 models *Implement and test modifications to OptClim to run with the simplest model, MITgcm-ECCO *Implement and test with UKESM1 for optimisation and for particle filtering *Implement and test with CESM2 *Facilitate use of OptClim and training This is a multidisciplinary partnership that involves atmospheric and climate models and computer scientists. |
Start Year | 2021 |
Description | Porting OptClim Optimisation system to ARCHER2 |
Organisation | University of Oxford |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | I provide guidence in the implementation and testing with CESM2 |
Collaborator Contribution | Porting OptClim Optimisation system to ARCHER2 |
Impact | The outcomes will be the following: *Design modifications to OptClim appropriate for a generic model and able to interface to each of the exemplar UKESM, MITgcm, CESM2 models *Implement and test modifications to OptClim to run with the simplest model, MITgcm-ECCO *Implement and test with UKESM1 for optimisation and for particle filtering *Implement and test with CESM2 *Facilitate use of OptClim and training This is a multidisciplinary partnership that involves atmospheric and climate models and computer scientists. |
Start Year | 2021 |
Description | Porting, Testing, Optimising, and Configuring the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) on ARCHER2 |
Organisation | National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | Awared a project to porting, testing, optimising, and configuring the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) on the UK Supercomputer ARCHER2 |
Collaborator Contribution | I am partner on this awarded project and provide guidance and feedback in the optimization of CESM2 in ARCHER2 |
Impact | The main outcomes will be: *Four key configurations of CESM2.1.3 tested, available and optimised on ARCHER2. *Improvements to the CESM code and scripts to simplify future deployments on ARCHER2 (e.g., several set-up and configuration files with compiler choices and switches). *Documentation to aid future use of CESM on ARCHER2, including platform-specific installation instructions, orientation to data and test experiments available, guidance on effective parallelisation, use of Cray tools. *Guidance to potential PIs seeking to include CESM on ARCHER2 in their proposals. This is a collaborative, multi-disciplinary partnership with atmospheric and climate scientists, modeler officers and computer engineers. |
Start Year | 2021 |
Description | Porting, Testing, Optimising, and Configuring the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) on ARCHER2 |
Organisation | University of Edinburgh |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Awared a project to porting, testing, optimising, and configuring the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) on the UK Supercomputer ARCHER2 |
Collaborator Contribution | I am partner on this awarded project and provide guidance and feedback in the optimization of CESM2 in ARCHER2 |
Impact | The main outcomes will be: *Four key configurations of CESM2.1.3 tested, available and optimised on ARCHER2. *Improvements to the CESM code and scripts to simplify future deployments on ARCHER2 (e.g., several set-up and configuration files with compiler choices and switches). *Documentation to aid future use of CESM on ARCHER2, including platform-specific installation instructions, orientation to data and test experiments available, guidance on effective parallelisation, use of Cray tools. *Guidance to potential PIs seeking to include CESM on ARCHER2 in their proposals. This is a collaborative, multi-disciplinary partnership with atmospheric and climate scientists, modeler officers and computer engineers. |
Start Year | 2021 |
Description | Porting, Testing, Optimising, and Configuring the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) on ARCHER2 |
Organisation | University of Leeds |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Awared a project to porting, testing, optimising, and configuring the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) on the UK Supercomputer ARCHER2 |
Collaborator Contribution | I am partner on this awarded project and provide guidance and feedback in the optimization of CESM2 in ARCHER2 |
Impact | The main outcomes will be: *Four key configurations of CESM2.1.3 tested, available and optimised on ARCHER2. *Improvements to the CESM code and scripts to simplify future deployments on ARCHER2 (e.g., several set-up and configuration files with compiler choices and switches). *Documentation to aid future use of CESM on ARCHER2, including platform-specific installation instructions, orientation to data and test experiments available, guidance on effective parallelisation, use of Cray tools. *Guidance to potential PIs seeking to include CESM on ARCHER2 in their proposals. This is a collaborative, multi-disciplinary partnership with atmospheric and climate scientists, modeler officers and computer engineers. |
Start Year | 2021 |
Description | Creation of education activity for schools |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | I established the first-ever Air Quality Garden in the UK, located at the Sheffield Botanical Garden. This initiative serves as an educational tool to raise awareness about the impact of air pollution on human and crop health. The Garden has been very successful, with more than 10 schools in Sheffield (> 100 pupils in total) from diverse backgrounds including some from underprivileged areas, visiting and engaging with the exhibit. Its impact has led to its inclusion as a permanent activity in the newly established Sheffield Botanical Garden educational program, thus ensuring its continuation to contribute to environmental education and awareness. https://www.sbg.org.uk/education-programme |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022,2023,2024 |
URL | http://sheffieldairqualitygarden.com/ |
Description | Interview for New Scientist |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | General article at New Scientist |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
URL | https://www.newscientist.com/article/2418595-climate-benefits-of-planting-forests-might-be-overestim... |
Description | Opinion article at The Conversation on how 'school streets' initiaves could create safer, healthier cities |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Opinion article at The Conversation on how 'school streets' initiaves could create safer, healthier cities |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://theconversation.com/how-school-streets-could-create-safer-healthier-cities-147873 |
Description | Presentation given at the Sheffield Friends of Botanical Gardens about urban air quality gardens. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I gave a presentation to about 55 people about my work on monitoring air quality in Sheffield, the installation of a school green barrier at a local school and discussed steps that people can take to improve air quality in their own environment. I also introduced the Air Quality Garden and engaged with the audience to volunteer in the project. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.instagram.com/p/CWVuOyAsP6Q/?utm_medium=copy_link |
Description | Side-effects of expanding forests could limit their potential to tackle climate change - new study |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Opinion article at The Conversation "Side-effects of expanding forests could limit their potential to tackle climate change - new study" |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
URL | https://theconversation.com/side-effects-of-expanding-forests-could-limit-their-potential-to-tackle-... |