SALIENT: Science for Adaptation: Learning and Innovation in EvideNce about future climaTe
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Bristol
Department Name: Geographical Sciences
Abstract
Climate change poses risks to agriculture, water resources, human health, and beyond. Each of us will potentially need to adapt. Planning that adaptation requires anticipating changes in risk, and there is great demand for information about future climate.
There has been remarkable progress in climate modelling in recent decades. Climate models can be run to simulate future temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather. Meanwhile, a new area of research and practice has also emerged, known as "climate services", designed to support decision-makers, working with them to explore how they can make their planning resilient to climate change, often using data from climate models. Climate services has many challenges and requires input from many different areas of expertise.
One key challenge is in using climate model data to generate information about the real world. Scientists can analyse simulations to describe the climate of the 2050s in the modelled worlds, but it is impossible to know with certainty what will happen in the real world. This means that there is a necessary "step" in the analysis, to convert the model data into a description of what could happen in reality. There are multiple ways in which scientists and consultants do this. They might estimate a range of what is possible in the 2050s. They might estimate the most likely outcome for the 2050s. They then need to find a way to communicate this to decision-makers, and this is often done using graphs, maps, or statements.
This "step" in the analysis is vitally important because it will determine which future risks are incorporated into decisions. If it is not done well, adaptation planning may fail to take into account climate change risks, potentially leading to unexpected loss and damage from future climate change impacts. And this "step" is very hard to do well! There is no consensus on how to do it. Climate models are imperfect tools for exploring uncertainties, it is very difficult to assess confidence in their outputs and to communicate their results to non-specialists.
In some countries, such as the UK, large programmes have been funded which address this challenge. However, it remains understudied, particularly for regions in the Global South which arguably need the information the most. This is the "climate futures information gap" and the focus for this novel research programme which is founded on two key areas of innovation:
1. Reorienting climate science analysis to better characterise the influence of climate change on a regional scale. Climate science is often led by the model dataset being used. This programme of climate science will be driven by the need to better understand what is possible, plausible, and probable in future. It will involve analysis of many different kinds of climate datasets, and multiple new approaches to analyse uncertainty, including combining model-based estimates and expert judgements.
2. Drawing on insights and methods from communications research to improve information about climate futures. Psychologists and scientists in other fields, for example medical research, have gained insights in how to communicate risk, through methods which test and evaluate different messages and approaches. In collaboration with experts in risk communication, this research programme will design and test alternative communications outputs.
The programme will focus first on southern Africa, and regional level climate change information, required by experts in the civil service and non-governmental organisations to prioritise adaptation action. These stakeholders will be invited to participate in the research, to inform the analysis from the outset, and co-design communications outputs. Following the research in southern Africa, a framework will be developed and refined in other regions and contexts. The ambition is to deliver a new kind of "climate futures" science, which is urgently needed to support adaptation to changing climate.
There has been remarkable progress in climate modelling in recent decades. Climate models can be run to simulate future temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather. Meanwhile, a new area of research and practice has also emerged, known as "climate services", designed to support decision-makers, working with them to explore how they can make their planning resilient to climate change, often using data from climate models. Climate services has many challenges and requires input from many different areas of expertise.
One key challenge is in using climate model data to generate information about the real world. Scientists can analyse simulations to describe the climate of the 2050s in the modelled worlds, but it is impossible to know with certainty what will happen in the real world. This means that there is a necessary "step" in the analysis, to convert the model data into a description of what could happen in reality. There are multiple ways in which scientists and consultants do this. They might estimate a range of what is possible in the 2050s. They might estimate the most likely outcome for the 2050s. They then need to find a way to communicate this to decision-makers, and this is often done using graphs, maps, or statements.
This "step" in the analysis is vitally important because it will determine which future risks are incorporated into decisions. If it is not done well, adaptation planning may fail to take into account climate change risks, potentially leading to unexpected loss and damage from future climate change impacts. And this "step" is very hard to do well! There is no consensus on how to do it. Climate models are imperfect tools for exploring uncertainties, it is very difficult to assess confidence in their outputs and to communicate their results to non-specialists.
In some countries, such as the UK, large programmes have been funded which address this challenge. However, it remains understudied, particularly for regions in the Global South which arguably need the information the most. This is the "climate futures information gap" and the focus for this novel research programme which is founded on two key areas of innovation:
1. Reorienting climate science analysis to better characterise the influence of climate change on a regional scale. Climate science is often led by the model dataset being used. This programme of climate science will be driven by the need to better understand what is possible, plausible, and probable in future. It will involve analysis of many different kinds of climate datasets, and multiple new approaches to analyse uncertainty, including combining model-based estimates and expert judgements.
2. Drawing on insights and methods from communications research to improve information about climate futures. Psychologists and scientists in other fields, for example medical research, have gained insights in how to communicate risk, through methods which test and evaluate different messages and approaches. In collaboration with experts in risk communication, this research programme will design and test alternative communications outputs.
The programme will focus first on southern Africa, and regional level climate change information, required by experts in the civil service and non-governmental organisations to prioritise adaptation action. These stakeholders will be invited to participate in the research, to inform the analysis from the outset, and co-design communications outputs. Following the research in southern Africa, a framework will be developed and refined in other regions and contexts. The ambition is to deliver a new kind of "climate futures" science, which is urgently needed to support adaptation to changing climate.
Organisations
- University of Bristol (Fellow, Lead Research Organisation, Project Partner)
- Climate Outreach (Project Partner)
- Botswana Climate Change Network (Project Partner)
- Kulima Integrated Development Solutions (Project Partner)
- University of Cape Town (Project Partner)
- Delft University of Technology (Project Partner)
- Centre for Coordination of Agricultural Research and Development for Southern Africa (Project Partner)
- University of Pretoria (Project Partner)
- Met Office (Project Partner)
Publications
![publication icon](/resources/img/placeholder-60x60.png)
Arnell N
(2024)
Quantifying Climate Risk and Building Resilience in the UK
![publication icon](/resources/img/placeholder-60x60.png)
Brookes E
(2024)
Quantifying Climate Risk and Building Resilience in the UK
![publication icon](/resources/img/placeholder-60x60.png)
Lonsdale K
(2024)
Quantifying Climate Risk and Building Resilience in the UK
Description | Cabot community events funding |
Amount | £1,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | University of Bristol |
Department | Cabot Institute |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 02/2024 |
End | 02/2024 |
Description | University of Cape Town - Bristol Collaboration Programme |
Amount | £15,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | University of Bristol |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 01/2024 |
End | 12/2025 |
Description | Alan and Ailish attending FoSTA Health meeting in South Africa |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
Results and Impact | Alan Kennedy-Asser and Ailish Craig attended the a project meeting - FoSTA Health - to share information about our project and investigate how the projects can work together. A plan was made for further collaboration. The project includes practitioners and industry organisations focusing on food in South Africa. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Attended Africa Dialogue Platform on Anticipatory Action in Johannesburg |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Rachel James attended the Africa Dialogue Platform in Johannesburg, able to learn from and network with participants working on anticipatory humanitarian action, mainly from international organisations (Red Cross, World Food Programme, Food and Agricultural Organisation). Shared information about our project. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Attending El Nino Summit in South Africa |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Rachel James and Ailish Craig attended El Nino Summit in South Africa, spoke to journalists about our research project |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Attending Focus Africa project meeting in Mozambique |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Ailish Craig attended a Focus Africa meeting in Mozambique. She was able to speak with a range of stakeholders about our work, including experts from meteorological services from multiple African countries, and a representative from the financial sector. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Blog about research visit to Mozambique - Ailish Craig |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Ailish Craig, Research Associate in Salient, wrote a blog about our team visit to Mozambique, focusing on a visit to a dam. The blog reflected on how climate information may be used for managing the dam, which relates to our research into the context for future climate information in southern Africa. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
URL | https://environment.blogs.bristol.ac.uk/2024/01/08/how-do-you-manage-a-dam-when-theres-a-tropical-cy... |
Description | Climate Change Heat and Health Walking Tour |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Alan Kennedy-Asser, Research Associate on SALIENT, designed and led walking tours as part of the Northern Ireland Science Festival. During the walking tours, Alan invites members of the general public to consider how heat and heat impacts vary through the city, and how they are influenced by green space, buildings, traffic, city planning and beyond. Throughout research insights are introduced into the discussion. Feedback was very positive, with participants noting that it really opened their eyes to how people in a city could be impacted differently by increasing heat extremes associated with climate change. The learning from this activity is also contributing to our ongoing research on exploring new ways to engage and communicate future climate information. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
URL | https://nisciencefestival.com |
Description | Delegate at COP27 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | I attended COP27 (UN climate negotiations) to learn more about international policy processes on adaptation, and how my research could be most useful. I also went to find stakeholders who would be interested in engaging with the research. I was able to identify several key people to collaborate with, and also met a project partner, who I had only previously met virtually. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Geographical Association Talk for Sixth Form Students |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Sixth form students from Bristol schools were invited to attend a talk about my research, on climate science to inform climate change adaptation in Africa. The talk sparked discussion, and engagement via mentimeter. Teachers commented that it was very relevant to their studies, and it was useful for the students to see how geographical research could be applied to topical issues. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | High-level panel member at REACH final event |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Rachel James invited to be on high-level panel at the Sheldonian Theatre, as part of the final event for the REACH water security project. Audience included practitioners from Kenya, Ethiopia and Bangladesh, as well as many experts working in water security based in Oxford. Shared findings and updates from our project and received several requests to follow up after the event. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Interview on BBC Radio Ulster - Alan Kennedy-Asser |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Alan Kennedy-Asser was interviewed at the studio on BBC Radio Ulster, discussing the impact of heatwaves, and sharing research insights about how heatwaves are changing and are likely to change in future, and what impacts they are likely to have. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
URL | https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001w6p4 |
Description | Interview with CNBC |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Interview with journalist from CNBC, featured in article. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/04/cop27-climate-summit-loss-and-damage-funding-to-dominate-the-talks.h... |
Description | Interview with National Geographic |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Interview with National Geographic, featured in article. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/environment-and-conservation/2022/11/as-climate-disasters-grow-... |
Description | Media interview on BBC Radio West Midlands |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Alan Kennedy-Asser was interviewed on BBC Radio West Midlands about climate change. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Media interview on CGTN |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Alan Kennedy-Asser was interviewed on CGTN about climate change. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Media interview on France 24 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Alan Kennedy-Asser was interviewed on France 24 about climate change |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Panelist in Cabot Institute COP27 discussion |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Invited to be a panelist in a discussion about COP27, which was broadcast to the Cabot Institute network. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Panelist in Sustainability Network COP27 discussion |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Undergraduate students |
Results and Impact | Invited to be a panelist in a discussion about COP27, aimed primarily at students interested in sustainability. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Presenting at WCSSP South Africa Meeting at the UK Met Office |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Rachel James attended a project meeting - WCSSP South Africa - at the Met Office to share information about our project and investigate how the projects can work together. The project is led by the UK Met Office. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Project website |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Project website developed, in order to provide information to interested stakeholders and research participants. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.climatebristol.org/salient/ |
Description | Rachel James attending the CASCADE project kick off meeting |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Rachel James attended the a project kick off meeting - CASCADE - to share information about our project and investigate how the projects can work together. We made a plan for how to collaborate. The project includes practitioners for example from the Red Cross Climate Centre. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
Description | Rachel James attending the PALM-TREES project kick off meeting |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
Results and Impact | Rachel James attended the a project kick off meeting - PALM-TREES - to share information about our project and investigate how the projects can work together. The project includes practitioners for example from the community organisations in South Africa and Cameroon. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
Description | Radio Interview - BBC Radio Bristol |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Live interview on BBC Radio Bristol about my visit to COP27 (UN climate negotiations in Egypt), including discussing the relevance of my research to the climate policy process. The intended purpose was to raise awareness of the goals and value of the COP, and to increase public understanding about climate change science and policy. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Radio Interview - Heart FM |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Recorded interview with Heart FM about my visit to COP27 (UN climate negotiations in Egypt), including discussing the relevance of my research to the climate policy process. The intended purpose was to raise awareness of the goals and value of the COP, and to increase public understanding about climate change science and policy. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Team attended project kick-off meeting - REPRESA - in Mozambique |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Rachel James, Alan Kennedy-Asser and Ailish Craig attended a project kick off meeting - REPRESA - to share information about our project and investigate how the projects can work together. We made a plan for how to collaborate. The project includes practitioners for example from the Red Cross Climate Centre, CARE International. We also met with local government officials and water managers. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Training with Climate Outreach |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | We organised a training with Climate Outreach, an organisation which seeks to use social science to inform how we communicate about climate change. This was an opportunity for us to share our research goals and questions with Climate Outreach as well as with other researchers. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Workshop in Lusaka, Zambia with humanitarian and disability organisations |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Ailish Craig led a workshop, designed by the Salient team to pilot methods for evaluating different ways of communicating climate information. Participants in the workshop were from the Zambia Meteorological Department, humanitarian organisations and disability organisations. They were very engaged in the activity and wanted to follow up. The findings from the workshop were very insightful to plan future research methods in Salient. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |