Workshop - Predicting Zoonotic Outbreaks: Building on the Plague Threshold Model
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Liverpool
Department Name: Sch of Biological Sciences
Abstract
Real-world studies of host-pathogen dynamics have often failed to keep pace with the development of theoretical concepts. One area where this shortfall is especially regrettable is the application of those concepts in the medical and veterinary sciences. A specific example is the development of predictive models of times and/or locations of high risk of a disease being passed from a wildlife reservoir to human (or domestic animal) populations / so-called zoonotic diseases. This would be the subject of this workshop. A rare example of a model predicting zoonotic outbreaks used long-term data on bubonic plague in Kazakhstan. There, and throughout much of Central Asia, where plague remains a considerable public health concern, the main reservoir host is the great gerbil, Rhombomys opimus. That study demonstrated the existence of a 'critical abundance threshold' in the gerbils, which had to be exceeded for plague to become established in its reservoir (and be a threat), Furthermore, because it was based on past gerbil abundances, the model was not only descriptive but could also be used to predict future outbreaks, i.e. an early warning system. Subsequently, the output from that model has been used to develop a predictive 'expert system' which is being piloted by public health workers in Kazakhstan. The purpose of the proposed workshop is to use the plague model as a springboard to ask (i) What are the prospects of, and what data will be necessary for, utilising critical abundance thresholds, and other key concepts, in developing early warning models for other disease systems in wildlife that are a threat to public health? Indeed, how widely applicable are simple 'threshold' models likely to be? Under what circumstances would different (types of) models be necessary? (ii) How best can such models be turned into tools that are useful to public health practitioners? What do public health workers want/need? Does this differ between the developed and the developing world, and if so how? (iii) How best can predictions such as these be incorporated into a larger risk analysis and/or cost-benefit analysis? 'Ecological' models / at best / generate a probability (with confidence attached) that a disease will be present at a particular place at a particular time. But what is the best way to incorporate the costs of inaction if the disease appears and action has not been taken? Likewise the costs of action that turns out to be unnecessary? And to what extent is it necessary to go beyond knowing what is optimal on purely economic grounds in order to take 'social' factors into account (e.g. loss of public confidence following an untreated outbreak).
Organisations
- University of Liverpool (Lead Research Organisation)
- UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD (Collaboration)
- UNIVERSITY OF ABERDEEN (Collaboration)
- UNIVERSITY OF GLASGOW (Collaboration)
- Yale University (Collaboration)
- University of Massachusetts (Collaboration)
- UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL (Collaboration)
- Utrecht University (Collaboration)
Publications
Davis S
(2008)
The abundance threshold for plague as a critical percolation phenomenon.
in Nature
Reijniers J
(2014)
Plague epizootic cycles in Central Asia.
in Biology letters
Wilschut LI
(2015)
Spatial distribution patterns of plague hosts: point pattern analysis of the burrows of great gerbils in Kazakhstan.
in Journal of biogeography
Description | This was a series of two linked workshops designed to generate new collaborations. Several were spawned |
Exploitation Route | Thos collaborations led to published outputs and in some cases are ingoing. |
Sectors | Environment Healthcare |
Description | A range of collaborations around the world that would not have occurred without this workshop, including published work on Lassa fever in Africa, Lyme disease in the US |
Sector | Environment,Healthcare |
Impact Types | Policy & public services |
Description | Collaborations between partners |
Organisation | University of Aberdeen |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | The purpose of these workshops was networking. A number of successful and productive collaborations have been established, though it would be difficult to directly attribute specific publications to the workshop. These include Begon (Liverpool) and Heesterbeek (Utrecht) Begon (Liverpool) and Davis (Melbourne) Davis (Melbourne) and Fish (Yale) Fish (Yale) and Randolph (Oxford) Telfer (Aberdeen) and Cleaveland (Glasgow) |
Start Year | 2008 |
Description | Collaborations between partners |
Organisation | University of Glasgow |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | The purpose of these workshops was networking. A number of successful and productive collaborations have been established, though it would be difficult to directly attribute specific publications to the workshop. These include Begon (Liverpool) and Heesterbeek (Utrecht) Begon (Liverpool) and Davis (Melbourne) Davis (Melbourne) and Fish (Yale) Fish (Yale) and Randolph (Oxford) Telfer (Aberdeen) and Cleaveland (Glasgow) |
Start Year | 2008 |
Description | Collaborations between partners |
Organisation | University of Liverpool |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | The purpose of these workshops was networking. A number of successful and productive collaborations have been established, though it would be difficult to directly attribute specific publications to the workshop. These include Begon (Liverpool) and Heesterbeek (Utrecht) Begon (Liverpool) and Davis (Melbourne) Davis (Melbourne) and Fish (Yale) Fish (Yale) and Randolph (Oxford) Telfer (Aberdeen) and Cleaveland (Glasgow) |
Start Year | 2008 |
Description | Collaborations between partners |
Organisation | University of Massachusetts |
Department | University of Massachusetts Medical School |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | The purpose of these workshops was networking. A number of successful and productive collaborations have been established, though it would be difficult to directly attribute specific publications to the workshop. These include Begon (Liverpool) and Heesterbeek (Utrecht) Begon (Liverpool) and Davis (Melbourne) Davis (Melbourne) and Fish (Yale) Fish (Yale) and Randolph (Oxford) Telfer (Aberdeen) and Cleaveland (Glasgow) |
Start Year | 2008 |
Description | Collaborations between partners |
Organisation | University of Oxford |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | The purpose of these workshops was networking. A number of successful and productive collaborations have been established, though it would be difficult to directly attribute specific publications to the workshop. These include Begon (Liverpool) and Heesterbeek (Utrecht) Begon (Liverpool) and Davis (Melbourne) Davis (Melbourne) and Fish (Yale) Fish (Yale) and Randolph (Oxford) Telfer (Aberdeen) and Cleaveland (Glasgow) |
Start Year | 2008 |
Description | Collaborations between partners |
Organisation | Utrecht University |
Country | Netherlands |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | The purpose of these workshops was networking. A number of successful and productive collaborations have been established, though it would be difficult to directly attribute specific publications to the workshop. These include Begon (Liverpool) and Heesterbeek (Utrecht) Begon (Liverpool) and Davis (Melbourne) Davis (Melbourne) and Fish (Yale) Fish (Yale) and Randolph (Oxford) Telfer (Aberdeen) and Cleaveland (Glasgow) |
Start Year | 2008 |
Description | Collaborations between partners |
Organisation | Yale University |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | The purpose of these workshops was networking. A number of successful and productive collaborations have been established, though it would be difficult to directly attribute specific publications to the workshop. These include Begon (Liverpool) and Heesterbeek (Utrecht) Begon (Liverpool) and Davis (Melbourne) Davis (Melbourne) and Fish (Yale) Fish (Yale) and Randolph (Oxford) Telfer (Aberdeen) and Cleaveland (Glasgow) |
Start Year | 2008 |