Exploitation of HiGEM as a tool for understanding decadal climate variability and for predicting the climate of the next few decades.

Lead Research Organisation: University of Reading
Department Name: Meteorology

Abstract

The fact that Earth's climate is changing is now widely accepted; the consequences of this fact are only just beginning to be understood. The changing climate will have a very wide range of impacts - for example, on water resources, on agriculture, on ecosystems and economies. If planners are to minimise the costs of these impacts they require detailed information about how climate will change regionally and locally, especially over the next few decades. Providing this information is a major challenge to scientists. This proposal will address this challenge by making use of a new UK climate model, HiGEM, which provides unprecedented spatial detail. It will investigate how the changes in climate projected by the HiGEM model differ from those suggested by simpler models that provide less detail. It will also examine how observations of recent changes can be used in conjunction with climate models to obtain the best possible predictions.
 
Description This project demonstrated that accurate simulation and prediction of Atlantic ocean circulation and its impacts on climate required significant increases in the spatial resolution (i.e. spatial detail) of the computer models employed. Including these improvements results in better agreement with observations of the real world and better predictions.
Exploitation Route The results help to target the development of systems for predicting weather and climate from a season to several years ahead. Reliable forecasts for these lead times would be of great value for decision making in many sectors.
Sectors Agriculture, Food and Drink,Construction,Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Government, Democracy and Justice,Retail,Transport

 
Description Informed by results from this project and others the Met Office upgraded significantly the resolution of their seasonal forecasting system, which has resulted in significant increases in skill for European winters in particular. These forecasts have been valuable for energy sector businesses and others.
First Year Of Impact 2012
Sector Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Economic,Policy & public services

 
Description NERC National Capability Long Term Science - MultiCentre Programme: North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS)
Amount £9,000,000 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/N018001/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2016 
End 03/2021
 
Description NERC RAPID-AMOC program - DYNAMOC project
Amount £418,694 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/M005127/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 12/2014 
End 12/2017
 
Description North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) 
Organisation British Antarctic Survey
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) is a 5 year research programme led by NCAS (PI Rowan Sutton) and also involving: NOC, BAS, NCEO, PML, CPOM and the Met Office.
Collaborator Contribution Details at www.acsis.ac.uk and https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1
Impact https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1
Start Year 2016
 
Description North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) 
Organisation Meteorological Office UK
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) is a 5 year research programme led by NCAS (PI Rowan Sutton) and also involving: NOC, BAS, NCEO, PML, CPOM and the Met Office.
Collaborator Contribution Details at www.acsis.ac.uk and https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1
Impact https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1
Start Year 2016
 
Description North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) 
Organisation National Centre for Earth Observation
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) is a 5 year research programme led by NCAS (PI Rowan Sutton) and also involving: NOC, BAS, NCEO, PML, CPOM and the Met Office.
Collaborator Contribution Details at www.acsis.ac.uk and https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1
Impact https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1
Start Year 2016
 
Description North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) 
Organisation National Oceanography Centre
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) is a 5 year research programme led by NCAS (PI Rowan Sutton) and also involving: NOC, BAS, NCEO, PML, CPOM and the Met Office.
Collaborator Contribution Details at www.acsis.ac.uk and https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1
Impact https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1
Start Year 2016
 
Description North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) 
Organisation Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) is a 5 year research programme led by NCAS (PI Rowan Sutton) and also involving: NOC, BAS, NCEO, PML, CPOM and the Met Office.
Collaborator Contribution Details at www.acsis.ac.uk and https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1
Impact https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1
Start Year 2016
 
Description Partnership with the Met Office Hadley Centre 
Organisation Meteorological Office UK
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Strategic partnership in high resolution climate modelling, decadal climate prediction and other areas
Collaborator Contribution Strategic partnership in high resolution climate modelling, decadal climate prediction and other areas
Impact Publications. Improvements to Met Office decadal prediction system. Collaboration with the insurance businesses on climate risk assessment.