Assessing the mechanisms and significance of the summer 2008 glacial lake outburst floods in the upper Hunza Valley, Pakistan

Lead Research Organisation: Aberystwyth University
Department Name: Inst of Geography and Earth Sciences

Abstract

During the summer of 2008, unexpected glacial lake outburst floods from Ghulkin Glacier in the upper Hunza Valley, northern Pakistan, caused widespread damage to Ghut Ghush settlement. Early reports indicate that houses, cattle sheds, irrigation channels, cultivated land, electricity supplies, and roads (including the Karakoram Highway, the only main access route through the Karakoram region) were damaged or destroyed by the floods. We aim to assess the cause(s), characteristics and consequences of these floods and establish whether they are likely to occur more frequently in the future in the Karakoram region. Climatic warming in recent decades has been associated with widespread retreat and disintegration of high-mountain glaciers. An important consequence is the increased storage of meltwater in transient lakes on glacier surfaces or impounded by moraine dams, which can burst with catastrophic consequences for society. Such large-scale lake development on stagnating and downwasting glaciers is widely reported in the central Himalaya (Nepal, Bhutan, China) but not in the Karakoram region where, historically, floods have occurred predominantly from ice-dammed lakes formed when tributary glaciers advance across the main valleys. The 2008 Chut Ghush floods are therefore unusual for the Karakoram region, but may reflect newly evolving glacial conditions that would favour the development of more hazardous lakes in the future. The occurrence of the floods provides a rare opportunity to characterise the processes and consequences of a (currently) unusual type of glacial hazard for the Karakoram. Building on research from the central Himalaya, we propose to identify the sources and mechanisms of the glacial floods from remote sensing and field investigations. In order to determine the controlling glaciological conditions under which the lakes formed, the key glacier characteristics will be mapped and glacier velocities calculated for the last decade from satellite images. To address the importance of the floods as agents of change that modify river channels and supply large amounts of sediment to river systems, their geomorphological impacts will assessed in the field by surveying flood landforms and characterising the flood sediments. Relationships between glacier dynamics and lake development will be explored and conceptual models of hazard formation developed that can be applied to environments with comparable glaciological and geomorphological characteristics. Outputs from the research will increase our understanding of current glacier responses to climatic warming and impacts upon society in the Karakoram, and will also be disseminated to stakeholders to assist with flood response and risk management efforts.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description In summer 2008, four unexpected floods from the advancing Ghulkin Glacier damaged crops and killed livestock at Ghulkin village. The researchers investigated the cause of these floods and worked with local communities and NGOs to assess their impacts and likelihood of re-occurrence.

The researchers tracked glacier surface features on satellite imagery finding that the glacier's flow had accelerated in recent years. From field surveys and eyewitness reports they reconstructed the flood route. The volume of both larger floods was calculated to be at around a million cubic metres - far more than could have come from glacier surface ponds. The researchers concluded that much of the water must have originated within or beneath the glacier and was likely released because of reorganisation of glacier conduits as the glacier flow suddenly increased.

The model of flooding is not uncommon in Alpine settings, but differs from the more frequently publicised outbursts from glacier lakes that form on thinning, low-flowing glaciers (e.g. commonly reported from the Himalaya). Appropriate responses also differ for different types of glacial floods. Understanding the correct flood formation mechanism in this case has enabled appropriate local and regional risk-management strategies to be developed (see Impacts section).
Exploitation Route Continued incorporation into local and regional flood risk management strategies.
Sectors Communities and Social Services/Policy

Education

Environment

 
Description The grant recipients worked with local communities and the NGOs Focus Humanitarian Aid and WWF Pakistan to understand the impact of the unexpected floods from glaciers in the Upper Hunza Valley in northern Pakistan. Following on from their field-based and remote sensing investigations of the physical landscape they then disseminated findings through the media and conferences and contributed to several subsequent disaster preparedness initiatives. On-the-ground in Pakistan, they worked with local and international organisations, feeding their results into regional risk-management strategies. Shaun Richardson, who led the research, took the findings to a United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) workshop in Bhutan on emerging hazards in the Karakoram and Himalaya region. Richardson was also was part of a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk Reduction for the Himalayas Initiative organized by UNDP-ECHO to provide roadmap for hazard management across the region. He then prepared a chapter on Glacial Lake Outburst Floods for a larger report on 'Natural Disasters in South Asia - Rising to the Challenge', commissioned by the World Bank through its Disaster Risk Management and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) unit, based in India. He also prepared a report on 'Remote sensing approaches for early warning of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood hazards in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region', for the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Bangkok. Contributing to the formation of a new International Initiatives, in July 2010 Richardson was part of an 'International Expert Consultation' on glaciers of the Indus basins and their future for water, hosted and funded by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) in Kathmandu. The workshop has acted as a springboard for the subsequent Indus Basin Programme and Indus Basin Initiatives led by ICIMOD.
First Year Of Impact 2008
Sector Communities and Social Services/Policy,Education,Environment
Impact Types Societal

Economic

 
Description Quaternary Research Association travel award
Amount £500 (GBP)
Organisation Quaternary Research Association 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 09/2008 
End 12/2008
 
Description Contribution to International Expert ?Consultation Workshop: Climate and Environment Change Impact on the Cryosphere of the Indus Basin and its Implications on the Future Water Scenario 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? Yes
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk on 'Glacier dynamics and associated hazards in the Upper Hunza Valley, Pakistan', sparked plenary questions and informed thinking & recommendations in subsequent break-out discussion group sessions.

Workshop informed the development of the Indus Basin Programme and Indus Basin Initiative, coordinated by the NGO 'ICIMOD' - http://www.icimod.org/?q=indus
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
URL http://www.icimod.org/?q=1078
 
Description Invited talk to Swansea University 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Invited talk entitled 'Glacier outburst floods in the Karakoram, Pakistan' given at the Department of Geography, Swansea University on 12 March 2009. The talk generated interest and discussion.

One of the academics attending the talk asked for copies of information that were subsequently built into one of the Department's undergraduate teaching modules.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2009
 
Description Media article in Planet Earth Online 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Provided information for a media article in NERC's Planet Earth Online immediately post-award.

Article lead to a few enquiries for further information.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
URL http://planetearth.nerc.ac.uk/news/story.aspx?id=190&cookieConsent=A
 
Description Poster presentation: Glacier hazard formation and evaluation in the Northern Areas of Pakistan 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Poster presented at a conference on 'Glacier Hazards, Permafrost Hazards and GLOFs in Mountain Areas: Processes, Assessment, Prevention, Mitigation. 10-13 November 2009, Vienna. Both authors attended the full conference and poster sessions; poster generated interest and discussion from delegates.

Led to request for future collaboration.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2009
URL http://www.baunat.boku.ac.at/iag/veranstaltungen-und-archiv/archiv/glacier-hazard-workshop-2009-vien...
 
Description Poster presentation: The 2008 glacier outburst floods from Ghulkin Glacier, Karakoram, Pakistan 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Poster presented at a conference on 'Glacier Hazards, Permafrost Hazards and GLOFs in Mountain Areas: Processes, Assessment, Prevention, Mitigation. 10-13 November 2009, Vienna. Both authors attended the full conference and poster sessions; poster generated interest and discussion from delegates

Led to request for future collaboration.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2009
URL http://www.baunat.boku.ac.at/iag/veranstaltungen-und-archiv/archiv/glacier-hazard-workshop-2009-vien...
 
Description Press interview for Pamir Times, Pakistan 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Media interview given that generated printed and on-line press coverage in the Pamir Times and Dawn.com networks:
- http://pamirtimes.net/2008/11/14/glacial-lakes-pose-threat-to-gojal-villages/
- http://www.dawn.com/news/330034/glacial-lakes-pose-threat-to-gojal-villages

Noted an increase in general requests for further information after the media coverage.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
URL http://www.dawn.com/news/330034/glacial-lakes-pose-threat-to-gojal-villages