Hazard forecasting in real time: from controlled laboratory tests to volcanoes and earthquakes
Lead Research Organisation:
University College London
Department Name: Earth Sciences
Abstract
The inherent predictability of brittle failure events such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions is important, unknown, and much debated. We will establish techniques to determine the forecasting power for brittle failure in the ideal case of controlled laboratory tests, using output data from a series of experiments already funded by NERC to determine the rheology of rocks under slow deformation. We will use recent developments in informatics to enable a capability for verifiably forecasting failure in prospective mode, i.e. before it has occurred. This is important because the benefit of hindsight provides a significant positive bias in evaluating the predictability in retrospective tests. With this experience, we will then apply similar techniques to natural systems to quantify the loss of predictability in an uncontrolled, more complex system at greater spatial and temporal scales. A major technical aim is to develop an open-access, automated, web-based platform for real-time data collation, analysis and information exchange, enabling competing physical hypotheses and statistical methods to be tested and developed in fully prospective mode in an open, testable environment comparable, say, to daily weather forecasts. This will require applying state-of-the art statistical methods to the data in a user-friendly, high-performance computing environment, including formal quantification of model uncertainties and their effect on forecast consistency and quality. To ensure that the resulting techniques are practicable and formally provide value for use in hazard planning and risk mitigation, they will be developed in collaboration with recent global earthquake forecasting initiatives, monitoring observatories and civil defence agencies responsible for issuing alerts on seismic and volcanic events. The results will improve our understanding of the physical processes controlling material failure in the laboratory and in the Earth, and will provide a sustainable, experience-based tool for rigorous and fully-probabilistic forecasting of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes.
Publications
Brantut N
(2014)
Rate- and strain-dependent brittle deformation of rocks
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
Brantut N
(2013)
Time-dependent cracking and brittle creep in crustal rocks: A review
in Journal of Structural Geology
Brantut N
(2014)
Mechanisms of time-dependent deformation in porous limestone
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
Browning J
(2016)
Cooling-dominated cracking in thermally stressed volcanic rocks
in Geophysical Research Letters
Browning J
(2017)
Acoustic characterization of crack damage evolution in sandstone deformed under conventional and true triaxial loading
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
Chandler M
(2016)
Fracture toughness anisotropy in shale
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
Cheung C
(2017)
Stress distribution during cold compression of a quartz aggregate using synchrotron X-ray diffraction: Observed yielding, damage, and grain crushing
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
Forbes Inskip N
(2018)
Fracture Properties of Nash Point Shale as a Function of Orientation to Bedding
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
Fu T
(2020)
Mesoscopic time-dependent behavior of rocks based on three-dimensional discrete element grain-based model
in Computers and Geotechnics
Heap M
(2011)
Brittle creep in basalt and its application to time-dependent volcano deformation
in Earth and Planetary Science Letters
Description | Improved techniques for using laboratory and field data to forecast rock failure events. |
Exploitation Route | Within the European integration project EPOS. |
Sectors | Environment |
Description | Royal Society International Exchanges - cost share (China) |
Amount | £23,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | IEC\NSFC\170625 |
Organisation | The Royal Society |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2019 |
End | 03/2021 |
Description | Creep collaboration |
Organisation | University of Strasbourg |
Country | France |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Collaboration on experimental measurement of time-dependent creep in rocks. Collaboration based on complementarity of equipment and techniques between UCL and UoS. Experimental measurement of creep on large rock samples (40 mm diameter by 100 mm long) with simultaneous measurement of elastic wave velocities and acoustic emission output. |
Collaborator Contribution | Multiple measurements of creep in rocks on small samples (20 mm diameter by 40 mm long) as functions of condoning pressure, pore pressure, and stress. Main collaborators are Professor Patrick Baud and Dr Michael Heap. |
Impact | Joint publications listed elsewhere. |
Start Year | 2010 |