The Environment of the Arctic: Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice (tea-cosi)
Lead Research Organisation:
Bangor University
Department Name: Sch of Ocean Sciences
Abstract
Look at a map of the world and find the Shetland Islands. Follow the 60 degrees north latitude circle eastwards. You pass through St. Petersburg, the Ural Mountains, Siberia, the Bering Sea, Alaska, northern Canada, the southern tip of Greenland, then back to the Shetlands. All these places are cold, harsh environments, particularly in winter, except the Shetlands, which is wet and windy but quite mild all year. This is because in the UK we benefit from heat brought northwards by the Atlantic Ocean in a current called the Conveyor Belt. This current is driven by surface water being made to sink by the extreme cold in and around the Arctic. It returns southwards through the Atlantic at great depths. Scientists think it is possible that the Conveyor Belt could slow down or stop, and if it did, the UK would get much colder.
We know the planet has been warming for the last century or more, and we think this is due to the Greenhouse Effect. Burning fossil fuels puts a lot of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which stops heat from leaving the Earth, like the glass in a greenhouse. In a warming world, ice melts faster, and there is a lot of ice on the Earth: ice caps on Greenland and Antarctica, sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic Oceans, glaciers in high mountains. And we know that the Arctic is the fastest-warming part of the planet. This causes extra amounts of fresh water to flow into the oceans. Now this fresh water can affect the Conveyor Belt by acting like a lid of water too light to sink, so the Conveyor Belt stops.
What is the chance of this happening? We do not know, because there is much we do not understand about how the Arctic Ocean works. You need a powerful icebreaker to get into the Arctic Ocean, and that's only really possible in the summer, because in winter the sea ice thickens and the weather is bad. Scientists all over the world agree that the Arctic Ocean is important because it contains a lot of freshwater, which is why, although it is difficult to make measurements in the Arctic, the UK's Natural Environment Research Council has decided to fund a programme of scientific research in the Arctic.
We want to be able to make better predictions of how the Arctic climate will change during the 21st century, so this project will help improve our ability to make these predictions. We will do this by improving the way that computer models of the Earth's climate represent the Arctic. We are going to treat the Arctic Ocean as a box, with a top, a bottom, sides and an interior, and we're going to examine all these parts of the box using measurements from space, from ships, from instruments moored to the sea bed, and from robotic sensors attached to drifting sea ice. We'll use all these measurements together to improve the scientific equations within the computer models, and then we'll run the models into the future to create better predictions not just of the Arctic, but of how changes in the Arctic might influence UK, European and global climate. With better predictions, we can make better plans for the future.
We know the planet has been warming for the last century or more, and we think this is due to the Greenhouse Effect. Burning fossil fuels puts a lot of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which stops heat from leaving the Earth, like the glass in a greenhouse. In a warming world, ice melts faster, and there is a lot of ice on the Earth: ice caps on Greenland and Antarctica, sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic Oceans, glaciers in high mountains. And we know that the Arctic is the fastest-warming part of the planet. This causes extra amounts of fresh water to flow into the oceans. Now this fresh water can affect the Conveyor Belt by acting like a lid of water too light to sink, so the Conveyor Belt stops.
What is the chance of this happening? We do not know, because there is much we do not understand about how the Arctic Ocean works. You need a powerful icebreaker to get into the Arctic Ocean, and that's only really possible in the summer, because in winter the sea ice thickens and the weather is bad. Scientists all over the world agree that the Arctic Ocean is important because it contains a lot of freshwater, which is why, although it is difficult to make measurements in the Arctic, the UK's Natural Environment Research Council has decided to fund a programme of scientific research in the Arctic.
We want to be able to make better predictions of how the Arctic climate will change during the 21st century, so this project will help improve our ability to make these predictions. We will do this by improving the way that computer models of the Earth's climate represent the Arctic. We are going to treat the Arctic Ocean as a box, with a top, a bottom, sides and an interior, and we're going to examine all these parts of the box using measurements from space, from ships, from instruments moored to the sea bed, and from robotic sensors attached to drifting sea ice. We'll use all these measurements together to improve the scientific equations within the computer models, and then we'll run the models into the future to create better predictions not just of the Arctic, but of how changes in the Arctic might influence UK, European and global climate. With better predictions, we can make better plans for the future.
Planned Impact
The academic beneficiaries will be UK, Arctic and global climate scientists. We specifically included the UK Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre early in the planning for this project, and, as major project collaborators, we will fund part of their work in order to help keep the Hadley Centre at the forefront of the global climate modelling community.
The UK government departments that will benefit directly from this project are the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO), and the Department of Transport (DfT). DECC are responsible for advising the UK government on climate risks and developing mitigation strategies at UK, European and international scales and for international adaptation. DEFRA is responsible for advising on UK adaptation strategies. The FCO are responsible for developing and shaping the UK's relationship with Arctic-rim nations and the forward look of this strategy. The DfT are tasked with ensuring that the UK's shipping/ports are operated in an efficient manner, and that UK shipping remains a globally competitive industry in the future. All these government departments will benefit directly from an improvement in UK capability to predict Arctic climate through the 21st century.
We will maximise the project's impact and achieve the project's goals for knowledge exchange through early and continued stakeholder engagement in consultation with the NERC Arctic Office, the Arctic programme management, and via planned activities within the project itself.
As measures of success, we will attend international science meetings (as normal). We will also catalogue the use of the Project's science findings in assisting government decisions and policy, in collaboration with nominated contacts in the relevant departments, and we will record the utilisation of project results in adjustments and modifications to Hadley Centre models and modelling approaches. We plan an open end-project meeting aimed at the scientific and stakeholder communities. Its success will be measured by the extent to which it attracts informed and wide user and scientist attendance.
The UK government departments that will benefit directly from this project are the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO), and the Department of Transport (DfT). DECC are responsible for advising the UK government on climate risks and developing mitigation strategies at UK, European and international scales and for international adaptation. DEFRA is responsible for advising on UK adaptation strategies. The FCO are responsible for developing and shaping the UK's relationship with Arctic-rim nations and the forward look of this strategy. The DfT are tasked with ensuring that the UK's shipping/ports are operated in an efficient manner, and that UK shipping remains a globally competitive industry in the future. All these government departments will benefit directly from an improvement in UK capability to predict Arctic climate through the 21st century.
We will maximise the project's impact and achieve the project's goals for knowledge exchange through early and continued stakeholder engagement in consultation with the NERC Arctic Office, the Arctic programme management, and via planned activities within the project itself.
As measures of success, we will attend international science meetings (as normal). We will also catalogue the use of the Project's science findings in assisting government decisions and policy, in collaboration with nominated contacts in the relevant departments, and we will record the utilisation of project results in adjustments and modifications to Hadley Centre models and modelling approaches. We plan an open end-project meeting aimed at the scientific and stakeholder communities. Its success will be measured by the extent to which it attracts informed and wide user and scientist attendance.
Organisations
- Bangor University (Lead Research Organisation)
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (Collaboration)
- Norwegian Polar Institute (Collaboration)
- University of Alaska Fairbanks (Collaboration)
- Yale University (Collaboration)
- Research Councils UK (RCUK) (Collaboration)
- Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (Collaboration)
Publications

Lincoln B
(2016)
Wind-driven mixing at intermediate depths in an ice-free Arctic Ocean
in Geophysical Research Letters

Rippeth T
(2015)
Tide-mediated warming of Arctic halocline by Atlantic heat fluxes over rough topography
in Nature Geoscience

Rippeth T
(2017)
Tidal Conversion and Mixing Poleward of the Critical Latitude (an Arctic Case Study)
in Geophysical Research Letters


Schulz K
(2021)
Turbulent Mixing and the Formation of an Intermediate Nepheloid Layer Above the Siberian Continental Shelf Break
in Geophysical Research Letters
Description | The largest pan-Arctic survey of ocean turbulence ever made in the Arctic Ocean. New results reveal the key role of the tides in driving mixing over steep topography in the eastern Arctic Ocean, delivering heat from the intruding Atlantic water to towards the bottom of the sea ice/ sea surface. Because of the high latitude the processes driving the enhanced mixing are different to those responsible at more equatorward latitudes. Through the GRL paper in 2017 we identify the mechanism by which tidal energy can be used to mix poleward of the critical latitude. More new results (GRL 2016) show that, despite widespread speculation to the contary, increased storminess and seasonally ice free conditions in the Arctic WILL NOT result in increased mixing up of Atlantic water heat towards the sea surface in the Canada Basin sector of the Arctic. |
Exploitation Route | The data will help to improve the parameterisation of ocean mixing in global climate models. Poor mixing parameterisations have been blamed for the poor skill of these models in predicting the record breaking retreat of seasonal sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. |
Sectors | Aerospace Defence and Marine Education Environment |
URL | http://www.bangor.ac.uk/oceansciences/research/php/research_group.php?group=5 |
Description | Yes - significant press coverage, globally of the work showing enhanced mixing due to the tides in the Arctic Ocean |
Sector | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Education,Environment |
Impact Types | Cultural |
Description | ESRC IAA Impact Project Grant |
Amount | £3,500 (GBP) |
Organisation | Bangor University |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 08/2018 |
End | 01/2019 |
Description | Changing Arctic mixing regime |
Organisation | University of Alaska Fairbanks |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Helped with analysis of long term data to demonstrate a changing mixing regime in the eastern Arctic. |
Collaborator Contribution | Long time scale collection of data in the East Siberian and Laptev Seas. |
Impact | One paper under review |
Start Year | 2017 |
Description | Collaboration in cruise to Arctic Ocean |
Organisation | Research Councils UK (RCUK) |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Collaborated with NERC ACCACIA Consortium Scientists on a research cruise onboard the Research Vessel James Clarke Ross in July and August 2013 |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | FAMOS Participation |
Organisation | Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research |
Country | Germany |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | Working together with the FAMOS (Framework for Arctic Model and Observations) group in mapping Atlantic water heat fluxes in the Arctic Ocean |
Collaborator Contribution | fellow collaborators |
Impact | none as yet - still early days |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | FAMOS Participation |
Organisation | Norwegian Polar Institute |
Country | Norway |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | Working together with the FAMOS (Framework for Arctic Model and Observations) group in mapping Atlantic water heat fluxes in the Arctic Ocean |
Collaborator Contribution | fellow collaborators |
Impact | none as yet - still early days |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | FAMOS Participation |
Organisation | Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution |
Country | United States |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | Working together with the FAMOS (Framework for Arctic Model and Observations) group in mapping Atlantic water heat fluxes in the Arctic Ocean |
Collaborator Contribution | fellow collaborators |
Impact | none as yet - still early days |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | FAMOS Participation |
Organisation | Yale University |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Working together with the FAMOS (Framework for Arctic Model and Observations) group in mapping Atlantic water heat fluxes in the Arctic Ocean |
Collaborator Contribution | fellow collaborators |
Impact | none as yet - still early days |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | New collaboration with the Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromso |
Organisation | Norwegian Polar Institute |
Country | Norway |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | Joint research publication |
Collaborator Contribution | Provided microstructure data to add to that collect through TEA-COSI. |
Impact | research paper currently under submission |
Start Year | 2014 |
Description | Academic Seminar of Arctic Research work at British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, Feb 2014 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.) |
Results and Impact | Seminar of Arctic research presented to audience of Polar Scientists. Discussion of potential research collaborations resulting in a visit by BAS researchers to Bangor University in July 2014 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
Description | Academic research seminar at the Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromso |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.) |
Results and Impact | talk sparked questions and discussion leading to new collaboration New collaboration with a joint publication currently under review |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
Description | BBC Radio Wales Science Cafe |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | 2 interviews re- Arctic work on BBC Radio Wales Science Cafe |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017,2018 |
Description | FAMOS Meeting, Bergen |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Raise profile of work undertaken and work need to improve representation of Arctic mixing in weather and climate prediction models |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | https://web.whoi.edu/famos/meeting-7-october-23-26-2018/ |
Description | Presentation of key TEA-COSI results at the UK Challenger Society Conference, Plymouth UK. Sept 2014. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.) |
Results and Impact | Oral Presentation of new TEA-COSI results to UK Marine Science Community. Interest from fellow UK scientists |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
Description | Schools/ general public presentation on Arctic Physical Oceanography and UK weather |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Presentations to the following groups: Ysgol Owen Jones, Northop (school) Colege Merion Dwyfor, Gwynedd (school) St Aselms College, Birkenhead (school) Q3 Academy, Birmingham (school) Seran Network, Llandudno (school) Royal Beaumaris Yacht Club (Gen Pub) Royal Welsh Yacht Club, Caernarfon (Gen Pub) Rotar Club, Rhos-on-Sea (Gen pub) |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018,2019 |
Description | Visit to Uk Met Office |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Participants in your research and patient groups |
Results and Impact | 2 seminars which were followed by discussion specifically focused on understanding which ocean processes need to be included/ better parameterised in weather/ climate forecast models. further discussion/ collaborations planned. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
Description | YOPP Arctic Prediction workshop, Helsinki |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Introduce the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) group to the new ideas about ocean mixing developed through this grant |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
URL | https://www.polarprediction.net/meetings-calendar/science-workshops/yopp-arctic-science-workshop/ |