Managing ecosystem services and food security and the nutritional health of the rural poor at the forest-agricultural interface

[Proposal EE112/ K1396905]
Predicting the impacts of global change on rural communities is increasingly challenging due to the accelerating pace of climate change and social and economic development. The combined demands of ensuring food, energy and water security have been described as a "Perfect Storm" by Prof Sir John Beddington, HM Government's Chief Scientific adviser. It is clear that food security will continue to remain a critical issue in developing countries due to the unpredictable nature of food chains and the effects of climate change.

Food security in poor rural communities often relies significantly on flows of ecosystem services from 'natural' environments. For millennia mankind has engaged in thinking and learning experiences which have shaped the processes underpinning the production of food and the management of land, addressing multiple factors and tradeoffs. However, many food production systems require intensive management and are prone to failure outside of the range of their optimal environmental conditions. Concerns are growing about the ability of current agricultural systems to support rising human populations without further degrading critical ecosystem services (such as water provisioning, pollination). During extreme events, such as drought, or other shocks or crises (environmental, social or economic), the dependence of rural communities on ecosystem services to meet their nutritional and livelihood needs often increases. This highlights the importance of minimising the impacts of agricultural systems on ecosystems and the services they provide. Strategies for coping with food insecurity may, in turn, have an impact on the capacity of ecosystems to deliver ecosystem services as the spatial and temporal nature of feedbacks between socio-economic and ecological systems can be complex.

Addressing the sustainability of natural resource management and rural livelihoods requires integrated thinking across disciplines. The complex transformations which can, or have already occurred from natural forest to managed landscapes must be fully understood so that systems can be adopted which promote sustainable transformations and/or can mitigate any negative impacts. This proposal therefore brings together expertise in social sciences, economics, ecology, risk management, spatial planning, climate change and complexity sciences to design and integrate a suite of models and methods to analyse how dynamic stocks and flows of ecosystem services translate to local-level food security and nutritional health. The study will examine the multiple (and multi-directional) links between ecosystem services, food security and maternal and child health outcomes in poor rural communities, addressing three main themes:
1. Drivers, pressures and linkages between food security, nutritional health and ecosystem services;
2. Crises and tipping points: Past, present and future interactions between food insecurity and ecosystem services at the forest-agricultural interface;
3. The science-policy interface: How can we manage ecosystem services to reduce food insecurity and increase nutritional health?

Analysis of household and intra-household nutritional status and assessment and mapping of ecosystem services at the relevant spatial scales will be conducted in sites in Colombia and Malawi, which are characterised by mosaics of forests and agricultural lands, to explore the trade-offs and tipping points associated with managing these dynamic landscapes under climate and socio-economic change. Powerful new models will predict how ecosystem services will be changed by drivers and pressures for human wellbeing and food security. This will allow risk management/mitigation models and strategies to be developed which can inform national and regional policy in order to maintain ecosystems and support human wellbeing.

The developmental impact of this project will be to contribute to poverty alleviation for the 550 million people living at the forest-agriculture interface (FAI) in the tropics through improved food security and nutritional health and more sustainable management of ecosystem services. Primary beneficiaries will be the almost 2 million people living at the FAI in the project's Malawi and Colombia case study sites, particularly underprivileged or marginalised social groups including women and children, poorer households and disadvantaged ethnic groups. Secondary beneficiaries include local leaders who manage natural resources and national policy-makers concerned with achieving food security without degrading ecosystems. A final group of beneficiaries includes academics and researchers working in cognate fields. Since the publication of the MEA in 2005, many scientists are taking an ecosystem service approach to complex land management challenges, and the major conceptual and methodological advances that will arise from this work will influence this important and topical research and policy area.

The project will provide an improved evidence base on the value of ecosystem services for food security and health, leading to the development of better policies and practices to manage ecosystem services and food security, in turn leading to healthier, more food secure indigenous people who are better able to contribute to economic activity, thus reducing poverty. The project is structured to ensure identification of the most appropriate pathways to impact and to facilitate monitoring. It begins with a baseline assessment of the current linkages between food security, nutritional health and ecosystem services, and the drivers and pressures determining these linkages. The project's second theme focuses on understanding past, present and future crises and tipping points and the trade-offs (and associated constraints) involved in coping with them, identifying key areas and opportunities for engagement. The third theme deals with the science-policy interface, supporting decision-making at different levels through scenario-building that explicitly outlines the food security and nutritional health outcomes of different decisions relating to ecosystem services management.

Primary beneficiaries in the case study sites will be engaged through village development or environment committees. A participatory approach will ensure that local research concerns are addressed by the project, and feedback is provided in appropriate formats to different groups (posters, leaflets, meetings - all in local language). Community radio will help target primary beneficiaries at national and regional scale.

Ownership at national policy level in Malawi and Colombia will be ensured by annual meetings with a national advisory group comprising government, NGO, leading academics and private sector representatives. Scenario-building workshops using the ARIES ecosystem service mapping and Bowtie risk management models developed by the project will enable national decision-makers to visualise impacts of policy options with potential impacts on food security (e.g. PES schemes, adaptation strategies). Uptake will be assured through the strong existing relationships between our national teams and local Ministries of Environment, Agriculture and Planning and supported by dissemination of information through policy briefings and news media.

At international level, uptake of the project's findings will be promoted through the global networks of CIAT, Worldfish and CI. CIAT and Worldfish are both part of the global CGIAR network while CI has over 30 offices worldwide engaged in policy discussions related to ecosystem services, climate change and conservation and with close relationships with relevant ministries. Within Africa, engagement of policy-makers will further be assured through the network of LEAD fellows and their activities.