An individual-based perspective on macroevolution

Consider the weights of the 1500 or so commuters onboard the 07:52 Esher to London Waterloo train service. Weight has many health implications, affecting both life expectancy and reproductive potential. The 18 stone man opposite might not seem an ideal catch for a physically-fit impressionable type if she considers only his weight. If, however, she also sees he is 6 and a half feet tall with an athletic appearance (perhaps he plays rugby), then he becomes a much more attractive proposition.

Biologists often attempt to understand the evolution of traits like height and weight on their own. It is not individual traits that survive, reproduce and die though, but whole individuals. If the individuals of a species are successful, then the species will be too. The connection highlights the link between the traits that define species, evolution within species and the formation of new species is a key part of evolutionary biology, but one for which lots of data are rare. To understand it, we need to study competition among species in different environments. We also need to sample individuals in populations over and over again to see how these pressures change over time.

Only the fossil record can give direct evidence of historical groups of species and how they have changed over vast periods of time. The exceptional preservation of fossilised planktonic foraminifera - single-celled, sexual organisms living in all of the world's oceans - means it is possible to home in on abrupt or gradual climate change, seeing which groups succeed and, importantly, which groups fail: competition and climate change have very different impacts on the generation of new species and the extinction of living ones. The enviable preservation of whole foraminifera as fossils mean I can sample their fossil record in the same way as scientists sample laboratory experiments to see what drives evolution. In doing so, I will be the first to use real data to test key assumptions on how variation among individuals affects variation among species.

Understanding evolution is a fundamental concern, especially in a world characterised by rapid responses to human-induced threats. While there have recently been many theoretical advances in how small-scale trends might map to large-scale diversity patterns, evidence from real data is still largely missing. Macroperforate planktonic foraminifera have survived and adapted to ongoing climate change and rapid global warming before. In each instance, assemblages were much altered after the event as new species rose to dominate their biodiversity. Results spanning local to global scales, from the deep past to the present day, will not only provide new insight into how biodiversity arrived at its current state, but will also lead to new work that improves predictions of its prospects in the future.

In addition to the academic and commercial beneficiaries, my proposal has great potential to reach out to the general public because changes in individuals and species can clearly be seen in fossil communities. To engage the wider public, I will use established resources in the press offices of the University of Bristol and NERC and also propose to extend my program of existing workshops and public lectures on "Mathematics in the Real World". In addition, I propose to launch a new project in Einstein's Garden at the Green Man Festival. This interactive workshop will give festival goers the chance to contribute to an animated film based on the evolution of planktonic foraminifera, and will be planned and executed in collaboration with a science communicator I currently work with and an independent film-maker. The great strength of an empirical approach is the opportunity for participants (school children, festival-goers, and potentially many more) to see with their own eyes the evolution of different types of species as climate change gives them particular advantages and disadvantages relative to their competitors.