Greenhouse gAs Uk and Global Emissions (GAUGE)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Manchester
Department Name: Earth Atmospheric and Env Sciences
Abstract
To minimize the risk of dangerous climate change associated with increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG), as part of ongoing international efforts, the 2008 Climate Change Act requires that the UK reduces its GHG emissions by at least 80% by 2050, compared to 1990 levels. To support such legislation, methods must be developed to reduce uncertainty on existing national GHG emissions estimates and monitor the efficacy of emissions reduction strategies.
In 2010, CO2 represented about 85% of total UK GHG emissions, with the remainder largely from methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). In 2010, the main UK sources of CO2 were energy supply, road transport, business, and residential; the main sources of CH4 were agriculture and landfill with small sources from gas leakage and coal mines; and the main sources of N2O were agriculture, industrial process, and road transport. There are substantial associated uncertainties with sectoral estimates of these emissions, particularly for N2O.
The main focus of Greenhouse gAs Uk and Global Emissions (GAUGE) is to quantify UK budgets of CO2, CH4, and N2O from different sectors, and to improve global GHG budgets. The UK study will focus on fossil fuels and agriculture, the two largest sources of the three GHGs. We will achieve this by combining atmospheric measurements with computer models of the atmosphere, which describe the movement of GHGs after emission. We already have a reasonable idea of where GHGs are emitted but the size of the emissions typically has a large associated error. Depending on the emission type it may also have a substantial seasonal cycle (e.g., agriculture). It is therefore important we make regular GHG measurements at different times of the year and in different places.
The UK research aircraft will provide the broad-scale 3-D perspective on the inflow and outflow of UK GHG budgets, complementing information from existing tall towers. The network of tall towers measure GHGs at 100-200m above the surface to ensure that the sampled air is representative of larger areas, and the towers are intentionally sited to provide estimates of GHG emissions in the Devolved Administrations. As part of GAUGE we will add to this network with a tower in the Scottish borders that provides substantially more information about the north of England, Scotland, and the North Sea; a tower over SE England, downwind of London; and we will support existing instruments on the BT tower in central London. The SE London tower and the BT tower together will allow us to provide the first multi-year record of urban emissions from a megacity. We will use GHG isotopes to improve understanding of the fossil fuel sources. A detailed study of agricultural GHG emissions will be conducted over East Anglia, allowing us to quantify the importance of this sector in the UK GHG budget. Weekly measurements aboard a North Sea ferry will provide constraints on UK GHG fluxes by regularly sampling transects of UK outflow. Satellite observations of GHGs offer a unique global perspective, linking UK emissions to the rest of the world, and we will work with NASA to develop and apply new observations to quantify global GHG budgets on a sub-UK spatial scale. Embedded in this long-term measurement strategy will be a measurement intensive to quantify London GHG emissions, where we will use the UK research aircraft to sample profiles of upwind/downwind air, validate dedicated satellite observations, and link urban measurements with downwind in situ and tall tower measurements.
In GAUGE we bring together computer models of the atmosphere, and a team of world-leading modellers, in order to relate observed variations of GHGs to estimates of the underlying emissions. Statistical approaches will be used to find emissions that best agree with the measurements, taking account of model and data uncertainties. The main outcome from GAUGE will be robust GHG emission estimates from the UK and from the world.
In 2010, CO2 represented about 85% of total UK GHG emissions, with the remainder largely from methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). In 2010, the main UK sources of CO2 were energy supply, road transport, business, and residential; the main sources of CH4 were agriculture and landfill with small sources from gas leakage and coal mines; and the main sources of N2O were agriculture, industrial process, and road transport. There are substantial associated uncertainties with sectoral estimates of these emissions, particularly for N2O.
The main focus of Greenhouse gAs Uk and Global Emissions (GAUGE) is to quantify UK budgets of CO2, CH4, and N2O from different sectors, and to improve global GHG budgets. The UK study will focus on fossil fuels and agriculture, the two largest sources of the three GHGs. We will achieve this by combining atmospheric measurements with computer models of the atmosphere, which describe the movement of GHGs after emission. We already have a reasonable idea of where GHGs are emitted but the size of the emissions typically has a large associated error. Depending on the emission type it may also have a substantial seasonal cycle (e.g., agriculture). It is therefore important we make regular GHG measurements at different times of the year and in different places.
The UK research aircraft will provide the broad-scale 3-D perspective on the inflow and outflow of UK GHG budgets, complementing information from existing tall towers. The network of tall towers measure GHGs at 100-200m above the surface to ensure that the sampled air is representative of larger areas, and the towers are intentionally sited to provide estimates of GHG emissions in the Devolved Administrations. As part of GAUGE we will add to this network with a tower in the Scottish borders that provides substantially more information about the north of England, Scotland, and the North Sea; a tower over SE England, downwind of London; and we will support existing instruments on the BT tower in central London. The SE London tower and the BT tower together will allow us to provide the first multi-year record of urban emissions from a megacity. We will use GHG isotopes to improve understanding of the fossil fuel sources. A detailed study of agricultural GHG emissions will be conducted over East Anglia, allowing us to quantify the importance of this sector in the UK GHG budget. Weekly measurements aboard a North Sea ferry will provide constraints on UK GHG fluxes by regularly sampling transects of UK outflow. Satellite observations of GHGs offer a unique global perspective, linking UK emissions to the rest of the world, and we will work with NASA to develop and apply new observations to quantify global GHG budgets on a sub-UK spatial scale. Embedded in this long-term measurement strategy will be a measurement intensive to quantify London GHG emissions, where we will use the UK research aircraft to sample profiles of upwind/downwind air, validate dedicated satellite observations, and link urban measurements with downwind in situ and tall tower measurements.
In GAUGE we bring together computer models of the atmosphere, and a team of world-leading modellers, in order to relate observed variations of GHGs to estimates of the underlying emissions. Statistical approaches will be used to find emissions that best agree with the measurements, taking account of model and data uncertainties. The main outcome from GAUGE will be robust GHG emission estimates from the UK and from the world.
Planned Impact
Policy makers, atmospheric scientists, educational professionals, and the wider general public are among the long-term beneficiaries of GAUGE research. The intertwined science and policy questions associated with Deliverable A focus on quantifying the magnitude and uncertainty of UK and global GHG emissions and sinks. Our science will inform international assessment activities and will be of direct interest to ongoing international research activities (e.g., MACC-II and follow-on, ICOS, InGOS) and UK government departments, particularly DECC and Defra. More broadly, timely delivery of these emission estimates has implications for current UK legislation and nationwide commitments to international emission protocols. We will engage with MACC-II, DECC, Defra, and other potential stakeholders (e.g., private industry) by formal (GAUGE science team) and informal meetings.
We are fortunate that the general public already has some understanding of GHGs, which we will build on with a range of outreach activities using knowledge exchange professionals that already exist with our universities. First, we will establish an online presence, which can be done relatively quickly, with an outward-looking website and its centre. Downloadable educational material, in conjunction with material already available via other sites (e.g., DECC, NOAA, Global Carbon Project), will be available on the GAUGE site. This material will be aimed at secondary school kids, educators, and the wider general public. We will endeavour to make the GAUGE site current by including, for example, updated streams of data from the tall tower network. As the project progresses we anticipate running student projects some of which can write software to allow simple online data analysis (e.g., using HTML5). Past projects have identified the effectiveness of podcasting and we will work with NERC and our universities to organize these - with the breadth and depth of GAUGE activities there should be no shortage of material. GAUGE team members will also develop displays for international science festivals (e.g., Edinburgh) to advertise NERC-funded science, and for museums (e.g., Our Dynamic Earth in Edinburgh). We will also directly speak to the media.
GAUGE will provide career development for PhD students and PDRAs by involving them in the planning and implementation of field campaigns (including effective deployment of aircraft), presentations of results at project meetings, and national and international conferences, and writing peer-review publications. They will be encouraged to explore measurement and modelling opportunities that will exist within GAUGE, providing them with a well-rounded research experience. We will also engage talented undergraduates through funding tractable and useful summer 10-week projects associated with GAUGE activities, giving them valuable research experience in order to secure PhD placements. This worked extremely well during BORTAS, for instance, funded by a Philip Leverhulme Prize.
We will engage with the academic science community via the usual routes. We will hold regular science team meetings, which will include a half-day when we will engage with stakeholders. From a UK perspective, we will have a presence at NCAS and NCEO science team meetings, and will engage with the Royal Meteorological Society conferences. From an international perspective, we we will attend EGU, AGU, the CO2 conference (June 2013, China), and have a presence on a very large number of international bodies and activities.
We are fortunate that the general public already has some understanding of GHGs, which we will build on with a range of outreach activities using knowledge exchange professionals that already exist with our universities. First, we will establish an online presence, which can be done relatively quickly, with an outward-looking website and its centre. Downloadable educational material, in conjunction with material already available via other sites (e.g., DECC, NOAA, Global Carbon Project), will be available on the GAUGE site. This material will be aimed at secondary school kids, educators, and the wider general public. We will endeavour to make the GAUGE site current by including, for example, updated streams of data from the tall tower network. As the project progresses we anticipate running student projects some of which can write software to allow simple online data analysis (e.g., using HTML5). Past projects have identified the effectiveness of podcasting and we will work with NERC and our universities to organize these - with the breadth and depth of GAUGE activities there should be no shortage of material. GAUGE team members will also develop displays for international science festivals (e.g., Edinburgh) to advertise NERC-funded science, and for museums (e.g., Our Dynamic Earth in Edinburgh). We will also directly speak to the media.
GAUGE will provide career development for PhD students and PDRAs by involving them in the planning and implementation of field campaigns (including effective deployment of aircraft), presentations of results at project meetings, and national and international conferences, and writing peer-review publications. They will be encouraged to explore measurement and modelling opportunities that will exist within GAUGE, providing them with a well-rounded research experience. We will also engage talented undergraduates through funding tractable and useful summer 10-week projects associated with GAUGE activities, giving them valuable research experience in order to secure PhD placements. This worked extremely well during BORTAS, for instance, funded by a Philip Leverhulme Prize.
We will engage with the academic science community via the usual routes. We will hold regular science team meetings, which will include a half-day when we will engage with stakeholders. From a UK perspective, we will have a presence at NCAS and NCEO science team meetings, and will engage with the Royal Meteorological Society conferences. From an international perspective, we we will attend EGU, AGU, the CO2 conference (June 2013, China), and have a presence on a very large number of international bodies and activities.
Publications
Allen G
(2016)
Biogeochemistry: Rebalancing the global methane budget.
in Nature
Allen G
(2019)
The development and trial of an unmanned aerial system for the measurement of methane flux from landfill and greenhouse gas emission hotspots.
in Waste management (New York, N.Y.)
Allen G
(2014)
Atmospheric composition and thermodynamic retrievals from the ARIES airborne TIR-FTS system - Part 2: Validation and results from aircraft campaigns
in Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
Bannan T
(2019)
A Large Source of Atomic Chlorine From ClNO 2 Photolysis at a U.K. Landfill Site
in Geophysical Research Letters
Belcher S
(2015)
Meteorology, Air Quality, and Health in London: The ClearfLo Project
in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Cain M
(2017)
A cautionary tale: A study of a methane enhancement over the North Sea
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Fredenslund AM
(2019)
Validation and error assessment of the mobile tracer gas dispersion method for measurement of fugitive emissions from area sources.
in Waste management (New York, N.Y.)
Description | In GAUGE, we recorded measurements of greenhouse gas concentrations and remote sensing vertical profiles around the UK from the UK FAAM aircraft (www.faam.ac.uk). Analysis over the course of the project led to published case studies of greenhouse gas fluxes for the UK and its regions. This included the development of new skills and methods to calculate top-down GHG flux from aircraft and surface data, including local studies of landfill sites, to challenge (and compare with) national emission inventories. We conducted a major field campaign at a landfill site in Ipswich (August 2014), where we tested many different techniques for the measurement of surface fluxes of methane. This was a test-bed for their validation and has helped the landfill industry (and its regulators, specifically the Environment Agency) to decide future best practice by more accurate and informed monitoring information, which led to follow-on funding from the Agency to develop drones (UAVs) for the measurement of landfill flux for regulatory monitoring purposes and commercial spin-out activity as legacy. |
Exploitation Route | The developments in this fellowship have already been taken forward into several standard and large NERC and STFC grant proposals (e.g. GAUGE, CANMAM, BIOCOOL, QUANT, The Global Methane Budget - MOYA, UAS-Methane and others) to continue scientific work on air quality, the measurement and quantification of greenhouse gas fluxes, and numerical weather prediction. In addition, the development of our drone sampling capability is part of ongoing projects with the Environment Agency to provide a new way of regulatory monitoring of landfill gas emissions. This work also formed part of a policy guidance note and a published Environment Agency feasibility study. A further legacy of this project included a project with BGS (funded by BEIS) in the UK to measure baseline concentrations of greenhouse gases and air quality parameters in selected prospective fracking sites to provide a statistical dataset to compare with any potential emissions during various phases of operational drilling. |
Sectors | Aerospace Defence and Marine Agriculture Food and Drink Creative Economy Electronics Energy Environment Government Democracy and Justice Security and Diplomacy |
URL | https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/Grant.Allen.html |
Description | Key findings from GAUGE concern new methodologies and instrumentation for the measurement of greenhouse gases around the UK and the quantification of flux (emission) from sources from local scale (e.g. landfill sites) to national (UK regions). Papers and conference presentations (>12 peer reviewed publications) on regional scalability of flux calculations (from local to regional scales) are providing global leadership on how to apply methodologies using aircraft sampling. Together with synergistic activity on other NERC projects (i.e. the MAMM programme, Allen's NERC Fellowship and NERC MOYA - Global Methane Budget programme), we have also developed drone aircraft measurement techniques that we are currently operating in ongoing projects with the UK Environment Agency for regulatory monitoring of fugitive emissions of methane. This also resulted in a policy guidance note and feasibility study by Dr Allen that has been published by the Agency. Dr Allen was also invited to be a reviewer on the DECC Mackay and Stone report on "the potential for fugitive emissions from fracking in the UK" and this has led to guidance on new monitoring techniques for fugitive methane assessment and Dr Allen is working with the Department of BEIS in the UK on an environmental baseline monitoring study led by the British Geological Survey to conduct and advise on statistical analysis and local flux methods for data at the UK's first fracking sites, collected in Lancashire and Yorkshire from 2015 to 2018. |
First Year Of Impact | 2013 |
Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Creative Economy,Energy,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice |
Impact Types | Societal Economic Policy & public services |
Description | Environment Agency Faesibility Study |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
Impact | Advice on the potential for use of new drone technology for the regulatory monitoring of landfill gas emissions |
URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/331683/SC130034_Report.pdf |
Description | Environmental footprint of exploratory hydraulic fracturing in the UK |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
Impact | Expert Reviewer on the DECC Mackay and Stone report on "Potential greenhouse gas emissions associated with shale gas production and use". |
URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/potential-greenhouse-gas-emissions-associated-with-shale-... |
Description | Reviewer of Mackay & Stone report (DECC, 2013) |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
Impact | As a reviewer, my comments helped to shape the final version of this influential report. |
URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/237330/MacKay_Stone_shale_... |
Description | Department for Energy and Climate Change - Shale gas environmental baseline project |
Amount | £250,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Department of Energy and Climate Change |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 08/2015 |
End | 04/2016 |
Description | Strategic Programme |
Amount | £5,000,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/N015835/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 04/2016 |
End | 04/2020 |
Description | Technology Proof Of Concept |
Amount | £101,803 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/P003737/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 05/2016 |
End | 06/2017 |
Title | Kriging of aircraft sampling for Langrangian flux calculation |
Description | New methods for Kriging of aircraft sampling to enable Langrangian flux calculation, e.g. for regional-scale emissions of greenhouse gases |
Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
Year Produced | 2014 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Regulatory reporting of greenhouse gas emissions for the UK. Air quality monitoring, modelling and prediction. |
Title | ARIES retrievals |
Description | Retrievals of trace gas concetration profiles calculated from infrared spectra recorded by FTIR on the FAAM aircraft |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2013 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Flux calculations for London, the Arctic and the UK for emissions reporting, academic beneficiaries etc. |
Title | FAAM data |
Description | Geolocated trace gas concentrations from the FAAM FGGA instrument and Manchester Aerodyne QCL instrument and other core datasets. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2012 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Improved modelling of the atmosphere, air quality modelling and prediction. Numerical weather prediction improvements. Policy advice to the UK Environment Agency. |
Description | British Geological Survey |
Organisation | British Geological Survey |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Work Package lead of atmospheric composition deliverable to an environmental baseline assessment prior to potential shale gas production in the UK |
Collaborator Contribution | Part of a broader project tasked with a full environmental baseline assessment. BGS have provided eddy covariance monitoring instrumentation to our measurement site at Blackpool and provide knowledge exchange on broader environmental assessment, e.g. seismic and ground water assessments and monitoring. |
Impact | Project website (above). Contributions to public inquiry evidence. Multi-disciplinary - atmospheric science, geology, seismology, hydrology, satellite remote sensing, public health. |
Start Year | 2014 |
Description | Environment Agency - UAV GHGs for Landfill flux |
Organisation | Environment Agency |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Designed, built and operated a drone for greenhouse gas (CO2 an CH4) sampling in support of regulatory monitoring of GHG flux from UK landfills. |
Collaborator Contribution | Funding and guidance on development for regulatory uses and commercial roll-out to environmental consultancies. |
Impact | Allen, G., Pitt, J., Hollingsworth, P., Mead, I., Kabbabe, K., Roberts, G., Percival, C.: Measuring landfill methane emissions using unmanned aerial systems, Environment Agency, ISBN 978-1-84911-367-0, SC140015/R, 2015 Allen, G., Feasibility of aerial measurements of methane emissions from landfills, Environment Agency, ISBN 978-1-84911-329-8, SC130034/R |
Start Year | 2016 |
Title | Manchester Airborne Retrieval Scheme (MARS) |
Description | Retrieval package for the calculation of trace gas concentrations from infrared spectra measured by aircraft |
Type Of Technology | Physical Model/Kit |
Year Produced | 2014 |
Impact | New measurements of atmospheric composition for air qualuty monitoring, regulatory reporting and numerical weather prediction. |
Description | BBC Breakfast News Live Interview |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | News interview on the effects of El Nino and global warming |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
Description | BBC News at 10 - science feature on airborne air quality work during Summer Olympics |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | David Shukman (BBC science editor) interview Dr. Allen for a 3-minute science feature on the airborne air quality measurement work conduced as part of this Fellowship for the News at 10, airing 7 August 2012. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2012 |
Description | Joint NERC-NSF workshop on the environmental impacts of shale gas |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presented at an international academic workshop on cross-Atlantic understanding of impacts of shale gas. Assisted with writing a workshop report in the area of greenhouse gas emissions and air quality. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
URL | http://www.nerc.ac.uk/funding/application/currentopportunities/us-ukworkshop/ao-usukworkshop/ |
Description | Membership of the NERC ESIOS Scientific Advisory Group |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Invited to join the NERC ESIOS SAG to advise on the setup of a new NERC infrastructure facility for sub-surface research. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | http://www.nerc.ac.uk/funding/available/capital/esios/ |
Description | Membership of the NERC UKGEOS Scientific advisory group |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Invited to join the NERC EESISE SAG to advise on the formation of a science plan for a new thematic programme of research surrounding sub-surface energy. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016,2017,2018,2019,2020 |
URL | https://www.ukgeos.ac.uk/ |