Ice NUcleation Process Investigation And Quantification

Lead Research Organisation: University of Manchester
Department Name: Earth Atmospheric and Env Sciences

Abstract

In this proposal we are seeking funds to take part in a field campaign that we have been invited to contribute to, which has international participants, is multidisciplinary, and will study aerosol-cloud interactions at the Jungfraujoch mountain site in the Swiss Alps in winter 2013.

This is a cost effective and timely project, building on previous NERC investment.

The Earth's radiation budget is very greatly affected by clouds, and human-induced changes to the particle loading affecting them, known as indirect effects, are large and highly uncertain. A large part of this uncertainty is the result of poor knowledge of the fundamental aerosol and cloud properties and processes, leading to their poor representation in the current state-of-the-science models. Indeed the IPCC did not have any assessment of the sign, let alone the uncertainty in radiative forcing, which was attributable to the effects of aerosols on ice clouds as they thought that the uncertainties were at present too large.

Hypotheses:
1. That the rapid transitions between ice and mixed phase / liquid clouds are due to aerosol-cloud interactions.
2. That the number of ice crystals within the clouds observed at Jungfraujoch can be explained by the heterogeneous IN observed at a site upwind of the clouds
3. That laboratory derived ice nucleation parameterisations, based on surrogates of atmospheric particles (e.g. dust, biological particles, soot) are adequate to explain primary ice formation rates within the clouds.
4. That the ice-ice aggregation rates derived from the NERC SIMPLEX project (PI: Connolly) can be used to explain ice-ice aggregation in the real atmosphere.
5. That the secondary ice multiplication is a strong contributor to ice within these clouds.

We propose to gain further insight into these problems and test these hypotheses by conducting a field campaign followed by extensive data analysis and modelling.

The field campaign will have several novel facets:
1. State-of-the-science cloud microphysics measurements, including, 2DS and CPI-3V.
2. Novel measurements of biological, dust, black carbon, volatile and total aerosols as well as their enrichment within ice particles at the site.
3. Measurements of ice nuclei using IN counters, both at the site (in-cloud) and at an upwind site.
4. A proven collaboration with international partners, involving scientists from Switzerland and several institutes in Germany.
5. Expertise from NCAS instrument scientists in the deployment of instruments into the field.
6. Measurements of profiles of aerosols and turbulence using lidar at the upwind site.

In order to interpret the measurements we will use a detailed aerosol-cloud and precipitation interactions model, developed at Manchester as part of the APPRAISE research programme by the PI: Connolly. This will enable us to take the aerosols measured at two sites and use them to test ice nucleation parameterisations in the model and verify them against data from ice nucleus counters and in-cloud measurements of ice crystal concentrations. The model will be used to derive enrichment factors for the different particles. It will also allow us to address the various objectives.

The data analysis and modelling program will benefit from:
1. Expertise from NCAS instrument scientists in the analysis of data and derivation of data products.
2. PDRA: Christopher Dearden who has a range of expertise in modelling cloud microphysical processes using both mesoscale models and detailed bin microphysics models.
3. PDRA: Ian Crawford who has a range of expertise in field deployment of microphysics probes and interpretation.
4. Close collaboration with colleagues in the field ice nucleation and parameterisation so that the latest developments can be incorporated into the analysis.

We feel that there is the potential to make large gains here by bringing together world leading scientists to the same field campaign with similar, but distinct aims.

Planned Impact

We have a clear pathway to impact throughout; this involves:
1. Inviting a film crew to attend the project and film a documentary that can be disseminated via national television. PI: Paul Connolly has worked closely with the media and has made appearances on television to describe his research (Bang goes the winter weather, The One Show, Newsround). These programs carry a certain amount of impact as they disseminate to large numbers and affect public opinion on topics such as climate change.
2. Producing Podcasts of various aspects of the work - via Manchester PDRAs - using `the Barometer' podcast. These links are distributed to schools and colleges and also advertised on our departmental web pages.
3. Visiting schools in the local area to enrich school children's education - Both PDRA: Chris Dearden and PI: Paul Connolly have links with schools in the area and are involved this kind of outreach. Chris Dearden especially who was an Ogden Teaching Fellow during his PhD.
4. Collaborating with climate modellers who have input into the IPCC who will use the results to inform their model development of key processes describing ice formation and evolution within clouds.
5. Collaboration with the Met Office who will use the results to inform their model development activities and ultimately improve weather forecasting services.
6. Working closely with instrument developers, Biral-UK, who wish to test and validate a new prototype instrument in the extreme conditions at the site.

A UK web site will be set up, linked to the UK NCAS web site, which will describe the project and its outcomes with specific areas designed for both the scientific user as well as lay communities. A good example of a web site designed by one of our PDRA's to engage the wider community can be seen at http://data.cas.manchester.ac.uk/micc/micc.htm.

In addition, a video podcast will be produced describing the experiment and its science during the intensive field experiments. This will be made freely available to interested parties via the i-Tunes Education Site as well as the University of Manchester "Barometer: web site run by CAS research students.

To extend the impact of the programme into the public sector INUIT is developing web-based educational materials that will explain the impact of climate change in the study area. This will extend to providing real-time data from the Jungfraujoch Sphinx Laboratory. The data and internet systems that allow for the display of real time data are already in place, as are the necessary resources for website development. This proposal will contribute to this by providing real-time biological aerosol data.

Publications

10 25 50

publication icon
Farrington R (2015) Comparing model and measured ice crystal concentrations in orographic clouds during the INUPIAQ campaign in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions

publication icon
Goulden O (2018) Uncertainty in aerosol hygroscopicity resulting from semi-volatile organic compounds in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

publication icon
Lloyd G (2015) The origins of ice crystals measured in mixed phase clouds at High-Alpine site Jungfraujoch in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions

 
Description The field project took place in January-March 2014. Since then we have been investigating a number of important findings from the measurements. The most significant is that the ice crystal concentrations measured in mixed-phase clouds are frequently 1000 per litre at -15C. These are several orders of magnitude higher than expected based on current understanding. Early indications are that these high concentrations significantly affect the evolution of the cloud radiative properties and precipitation from them (we have been using a meso-scale model to untangle these effects). We believe that the reasons for this are an ice crystal enhancement mechanism whereby ice crystals are produced from the snow surface in cloudy conditions, similar to hoar frost breaking off. It is thought that this will be a significant finding for weather forecasts in these and other regions.

Other important findings surround the influence of dust and biological particles on the ice phase. We have evidence to suggest a link between the aerosol particles and the ice phase and have published a paper on this subject.

The project has allowed for a critical assessment of the calculation of ice crystal concentrations in clouds that are not affected by artefacts such as particle fragmentation on inlets - in contrast to aircraft measurements. Hence, we are critically evaluating the different techniques and will be publishing these to the scientific community, which also involved private sector companies / probe manufacturers.
Exploitation Route We are collaborating with the Met Office. The key finding they are interested in is whether an improvement in forcasting the conditions is possible by including the aerosol properties or other microphysical phenomena, such as ice multiplication.
Sectors Education,Environment

URL http://personalpages.manchester.ac.uk/staff/paul.connolly/projects/inupiaq/inupiaq_project.html
 
Description It is too early for the assessment of any impact.
First Year Of Impact 2014
Sector Environment
Impact Types Policy & public services

 
Description EU Framework 7
Amount € 344,032 (EUR)
Organisation European Research Council (ERC) 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 12/2013 
End 12/2017
 
Title New software for processing cloud particle imager data 
Description The community use instruments to measure / image cloud particles at ground-based, laboratory and using aircraft platforms. An important instrument is the cloud particle imager. Software to process these data and images and to classify them has been written and made available to the public, here: https://github.com/maul1609/CPI-3V-processing 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2018 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact To early to tell 
URL https://github.com/maul1609/CPI-3V-processing
 
Title Development of code to process raw data from a research instrument: the Cloud Particle Imager. 
Description This is a set of MATLAB programs and functions to process data from the Cloud Particle Imager probes, which is made by SPEC Inc (USA). It was needed to process the data from the field campaign. 
Type Of Material Data handling & control 
Year Produced 2015 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact This was needed to process data from the field campaign. It is too early to assess whether impact will occur through this channel. 
URL http://personalpages.manchester.ac.uk/staff/paul.connolly/research2/cpi/cpi01.html
 
Description Collaboration within INUPIAQ field programme 
Organisation ETH Zurich
Country Switzerland 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The field project was a joint effort between many institutes. We are sharing data and collaborating on the analysis. Understanding this complex problem is not possible with data from one institute.
Collaborator Contribution See above. Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) organised our stay in Switzerland and helped communications with the custodians of the laboratory as well as many others. Mainz Max Planck Institute (MPI) collaborated with us on the science, sharing data from a holographic probe to determine ice particle properties in the sampled cloud. Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) are collaborating on data exchange from the Small Ice Detector (SID); ETH Zurich are collaborating on data exchance from an Ice Nucleus detector.
Impact There have been publications and joint meetings to discuss the science. The scientific disciplines cover aerosol science, atmospheric physics, atmospheric chemistry and meteorology.
Start Year 2012
 
Description Collaboration within INUPIAQ field programme 
Organisation Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Country Germany 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The field project was a joint effort between many institutes. We are sharing data and collaborating on the analysis. Understanding this complex problem is not possible with data from one institute.
Collaborator Contribution See above. Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) organised our stay in Switzerland and helped communications with the custodians of the laboratory as well as many others. Mainz Max Planck Institute (MPI) collaborated with us on the science, sharing data from a holographic probe to determine ice particle properties in the sampled cloud. Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) are collaborating on data exchange from the Small Ice Detector (SID); ETH Zurich are collaborating on data exchance from an Ice Nucleus detector.
Impact There have been publications and joint meetings to discuss the science. The scientific disciplines cover aerosol science, atmospheric physics, atmospheric chemistry and meteorology.
Start Year 2012
 
Description Collaboration within INUPIAQ field programme 
Organisation Paul Scherrer Institute
Country Switzerland 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution The field project was a joint effort between many institutes. We are sharing data and collaborating on the analysis. Understanding this complex problem is not possible with data from one institute.
Collaborator Contribution See above. Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) organised our stay in Switzerland and helped communications with the custodians of the laboratory as well as many others. Mainz Max Planck Institute (MPI) collaborated with us on the science, sharing data from a holographic probe to determine ice particle properties in the sampled cloud. Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) are collaborating on data exchange from the Small Ice Detector (SID); ETH Zurich are collaborating on data exchance from an Ice Nucleus detector.
Impact There have been publications and joint meetings to discuss the science. The scientific disciplines cover aerosol science, atmospheric physics, atmospheric chemistry and meteorology.
Start Year 2012
 
Description Met Office 
Organisation Meteorological Office UK
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Undertaking meso-scale and microphysical modelling for the case studies in the field campaign. Processing of the data from the cloud microphysics probes. Writing of papers for publication.
Collaborator Contribution Consultation on how to use a meso-scale model to simulate case studies for the field campaign. Consultation / discussion on data processing techniques for cloud microphysics probes. Co-authorship of publications.
Impact A paper on (Farrington et al. ACPD 2015) was published as a result of the collaboration.
 
Title Data processing software for the Cloud Particle Imager probe. 
Description This is a collection of MATLAB programs / functions to process the raw data from the Cloud Particle Imager probe, which is being used on the BAe-146 aircraft. It was developed during the INUPIAQ project to enable analysis of data from the field phase, so is listed here. It is available for anyone to use under the GPL. 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2015 
Open Source License? Yes  
Impact New science can be done with this tool kit. Collaboration with international scientists. 
URL http://personalpages.manchester.ac.uk/staff/paul.connolly/research2/cpi/cpi01.html
 
Description Radio Inteview on the Paul Hudson show, BBC radio York. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact I was interviewed about the effect that aerosol particles have on clouds and climate. This led to a further interview that aired on the BBC world service.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Radio interview on the BBC world service 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact I was interviewed by the BBC world service to explain the effect that aerosols have on clouds and climate.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02f13r5
 
Description Television appearance: The Nature of Things, CBC, Canada 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The program was about how rain forms and how clouds form. I was interviewed at the University of Manchester talking about the physics of these processes. See here at about 9 minutes in: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmnwxNPq4Tw
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.cbc.ca/natureofthings/m/episodes/myth-or-science-4-in-the-eye-of-the-storm