Integration of improved understanding of ecosystem service regulation into ERSEM model system

Lead Research Organisation: Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science
Department Name: CEFAS Lowestoft Laboratory

Abstract

Summary
The world's oceans and seas are home to highly diverse ecosystems and are characterised by the richness and abundance of species. Marine ecosystems provide a range of important services to mankind including food production, climate regulation through the cycling of carbon and other macronutrients, and a range of cultural values (e.g. recreation, tourism). They are in serious decline, primarily as a result of over-harvesting, pollution, and the direct and indirect impacts of climate change. In many locations, pressure from human activity and climatic changes have been associated with dramatic shifts in species composition, known as phase or regime shifts, which are often long lasting and difficult to reverse.
Our understanding of the ecosystems of the UK's coastal and shelf seas is limited and many processes are poorly understood. For example changes in the physical and chemical environment (temperature, circulation, light availability, nutrients) mainly affect algal growth and thus impact the foodweb through bottom up control, whilst impacts such as harvesting act on fish which modify the biomass of lower trophic levels thus altering the controls from predation. However the relative roles of these processes and hence the extent to which environmental change cascades through marine food webs and affects ecosystem services requires elucidation.
Our challenge is to further develop the existing ERSEM-NEMO modelling framework to better represent biodiversity-relevant processes, flows and feedbacks over a range of spatio-temporal scales, and to be able to model changes in function and the consequences of such changes in the context of ecosystem services. Furthermore these modelling tools need to be suitable for testing the impact of potential management solutions, such as marine conservation zones, on the structure and function of marine food webs across scales, and to explore the efficacy of specific indicators of good environmental status.
A big challenge in modelling marine ecosystems is to capture the hierarchical nature of biodiversity and hence to explore a range of scales. This requires a scalable model system, with a traceable hierarchy whereby more complex foodweb structures can be systematically and coherently related to simple foodweb structures. The project will provide new modelling tools which provide estimates of crucial information to help resolve key scientific questions as well as provide a better understanding of the marine ecosystems as they respond to global change and direct anthropogenic pressures. The combination of predictive tools and new knowledge will underpin the development and implementation of marine policy and the implementation of marine forecast systems.

Planned Impact

Academic beneficiaries
Improved understanding of the sensitivity of marine ecosystems to climate change and other anthropogenic drivers on multi decadal timescales will benefit the wider academic community. In particular, better resolving the trophic controls (top down vs bottom up) and how functional diversity affect the way marine food webs regulate ecosystem services will provide valuable insight and information. This increased capability could potentially support work in a range of disciplines far wider than considered here. Examples include regionally downscaled marine climate impacts modelling, marine biogeochemistry, habitats and spatial planning, sustainable fisheries, carbon capture and storage and offshore renewables, thus increasing the competiveness of the UK academic community in acquiring European funding.

Marine Ecosystems WP2 will develop; two core 'Div-ERSEM' modelling tools based on ERSEM as community model system which will be made freely available for academic use. The first is a relocatable water column model based on GOTM-Div-ERSEM. This system can be run on a PC and provides an entry level modelling tool for non-specialist modellers to engage in process modelling. This system will be made available on the internet for use by marine ecosystems scientists. We see developing better synergy between modelling and experimental studies as key to progress over the next decade. The second tool is the high resolution coupled 3D hydrodynamic biogeochemical model based Div-ERSEM-NEMO-shelf, and forms the basis for a community model to study spatially resolved system response. In addition we will provide a library of model skill assessment tools. Model data sets provide an important resource across the spectrum of oceanographic science. Examples include use in habitat identification, planning field work, the provision of boundary and environmental conditions for local studies and lab based experiments.

There is an international ERSEM model community, with model development taking place in Italy (CMCC, U Bologna, OGS) and the Netherlands (NIOZ) as well as a number of other users with a long history of collaborative engagement. We will use the inputs provided by the project to cross-fertilise ideas with the wider community and share code, to ensure that both our updated model benefits from the international activity and vice versa.
National Programmes:
This work compliments a range of national programmes/projects:
The NERC/Defra Shelf Seas Biogeochemistry program.
JWCRP Earth Systems Modelling strategy and i-MARNET though informing the development of a roadmap for the next generation ocean biogeochemistry model.
Modelling National Capability at NOC and PML.
NCEO-carbon (understanding the marine carbon cycling through a synthesis of Earth Observation and Modelling)
UK Ocean Acidification program (NERC/DECC/DEFRA), e.g. the regional modelling (ROAM)

International Programmes:
The IGBP programmes: IMBER and LOICZ
FP7 environment projects (e.g. DEVOTES VECTORS, Euro-BASIN.), FP7 Space projects (MyOCEAN II, OPEC, ECMOF) and potential successors.
 
Title A day in the life of our research vessel 
Description Produced by Leigh Howarth of Bangor University. The short video shows the a day in the life aboard the RV Prince Madog as part of the Marine Ecosystems Research Program (http://www.marine-ecosystems.org.uk/). 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2016 
Impact The video promotes the activities and gives insight into life at sea of NERC funded scientists. It has been viewed over 2,3000 times via youtube. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=5&v=V3Xn-hgXZK4
 
Title Introducting the Marine Ecosystems Research Programme 
Description A video introducing the Marine Ecosystems Research Programme 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2016 
Impact The video has been used to promote the Programme at various workshops and conferences as well as being available online linked through the project website. The vidoe has helped raise awareness of the programme and encourage dialogue with stakeholders. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=6&v=8ZHp9ZNORIs
 
Title Uncertainty in simulation models 
Description Michael Spence from the University of Sheffield describes different types of uncertainty found in simulation models. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2016 
Impact Increased understanding of how models are developed and can be used. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6e1RqGcUbn0
 
Description The two main benthic consumers in ERSEM (deposit and filter feeders) have been replaced with a deposit-filter continuum making one niche dimension and a size spectrum making a second. A means of specifying the degree of niche overlap between these various benthic consumers has been provided by means of a parameter in the FABM model description language developed by workers at PML.

The 1D online coupling between ERSEM-MIZER (GOTM) has been tested in the Oyster Grounds and Celtic Sea. Results have been compared with size based fish observations. The validated model has been run using meteorological forcings that account for different climate change scenarios. The effect of climate change on the trophic interactions have been analised and compared with previous studies in the areas of interest.
Exploitation Route N/A
Sectors Environment

Other

 
Description Restart and maintain developments in end to end ecosystem modelling
Amount £40,000 (GBP)
Organisation Centre For Environment, Fisheries And Aquaculture Science 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2023 
End 03/2025
 
Title Mixed filter-feeder/deposit-feeder functional types in FABM-ERSEM, with size-dependence 
Description A synthetic benthic community structure was implemented for testing competition between a suite of mixed filter feeder and deposit feeder characteristics in the model, as a function of size. A series of model runs was carried out, highlighting that an essential inter-species feedback mechanism was missing in the model at the level of the FABM framework. This mechanism will be addressed next. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact In progress, not yet known. 
 
Description Collaboration with OSPAR ICG -EMO 
Organisation Deltares
Country Netherlands 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution Working with the OSPAR group Interssesional Group for ecological modelling to define the historical thresholds for defining the thresholds for the waters of the OSPAR regions. I.e. North West European shelf. The 8 model ensemble simulates the conditions of the 1900s before the industrial process of nitrogen manufacturer occurred. These models are then used to define the best conditions that should be attainable.
Collaborator Contribution Cefas as part of this Campus consortium and having links to UK government has a dual role. There has been provision of marine ecosystem model outputs simulating the North West European shelf. There is also substantial work in helping set the direction of how the model outputs are used and accepted internationally. Its the aim of Campus that models are accepted as evidence at international level and used in assessments. This work is a fundamental step in that direction and a significant output of the Campus project.
Impact The outputs are still confidential at present as need agreement with Heads of Delegation they will be avialable after easter from the OSPAR web site.
Start Year 2021
 
Description Collaboration with OSPAR ICG -EMO 
Organisation European Commission
Department Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Country European Union (EU) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Working with the OSPAR group Interssesional Group for ecological modelling to define the historical thresholds for defining the thresholds for the waters of the OSPAR regions. I.e. North West European shelf. The 8 model ensemble simulates the conditions of the 1900s before the industrial process of nitrogen manufacturer occurred. These models are then used to define the best conditions that should be attainable.
Collaborator Contribution Cefas as part of this Campus consortium and having links to UK government has a dual role. There has been provision of marine ecosystem model outputs simulating the North West European shelf. There is also substantial work in helping set the direction of how the model outputs are used and accepted internationally. Its the aim of Campus that models are accepted as evidence at international level and used in assessments. This work is a fundamental step in that direction and a significant output of the Campus project.
Impact The outputs are still confidential at present as need agreement with Heads of Delegation they will be avialable after easter from the OSPAR web site.
Start Year 2021
 
Description Collaboration with OSPAR ICG -EMO 
Organisation French Research Institute for the Exploitation of the Sea
Country France 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Working with the OSPAR group Interssesional Group for ecological modelling to define the historical thresholds for defining the thresholds for the waters of the OSPAR regions. I.e. North West European shelf. The 8 model ensemble simulates the conditions of the 1900s before the industrial process of nitrogen manufacturer occurred. These models are then used to define the best conditions that should be attainable.
Collaborator Contribution Cefas as part of this Campus consortium and having links to UK government has a dual role. There has been provision of marine ecosystem model outputs simulating the North West European shelf. There is also substantial work in helping set the direction of how the model outputs are used and accepted internationally. Its the aim of Campus that models are accepted as evidence at international level and used in assessments. This work is a fundamental step in that direction and a significant output of the Campus project.
Impact The outputs are still confidential at present as need agreement with Heads of Delegation they will be avialable after easter from the OSPAR web site.
Start Year 2021
 
Description Collaboration with OSPAR ICG -EMO 
Organisation University of Hamburg
Country Germany 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Working with the OSPAR group Interssesional Group for ecological modelling to define the historical thresholds for defining the thresholds for the waters of the OSPAR regions. I.e. North West European shelf. The 8 model ensemble simulates the conditions of the 1900s before the industrial process of nitrogen manufacturer occurred. These models are then used to define the best conditions that should be attainable.
Collaborator Contribution Cefas as part of this Campus consortium and having links to UK government has a dual role. There has been provision of marine ecosystem model outputs simulating the North West European shelf. There is also substantial work in helping set the direction of how the model outputs are used and accepted internationally. Its the aim of Campus that models are accepted as evidence at international level and used in assessments. This work is a fundamental step in that direction and a significant output of the Campus project.
Impact The outputs are still confidential at present as need agreement with Heads of Delegation they will be avialable after easter from the OSPAR web site.
Start Year 2021
 
Description Abstract sent to the AMEMR2020 conference in Plymouth entitled: "A one-dimensional two-way coupled Lower Trophic Level-Higher Trophic level model to investigate the effect of climate change on the ecosystem" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Abstract sent to the AMEMR 2020 conference
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Addressing of policy questions by MERP 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The MERP Policy Interactive provides a broad overview of how MERP research fits with policy questions. By exploring the various categories users are directed to specific questions and can learn how MERP can help address them. This interactive was developed in close consultation with the MERP Stakeholder Advisory Group and was launched at the Stakeholder Conference held at the Royal Society in April 2018. The interactive is updated as new information becomes available in final stages of the programme. The interactive includes contact details of the relevant MERP scientists so that people can easily follow up if they require any further details about the research. Since the launch of the interactive we have received follow up requests for more details.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.marine-ecosystems.org.uk/Research_outcomes/Policy_Interactive
 
Description European Marine Board modelling workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact n July 2017, the European Marine Board (EMB), in association with Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML), organized an expert workshop 'Towards end-to-end (E2E) marine ecosystem models: R&D needs for ecosystem-based management'. The main purpose of the workshop was to bring together experts in marine ecosystem modelling to assess how such models are currently used as support tools in environmental decision-making and policy-setting. The workshop was co-chaired by MERP scientist Sheila Heymans (SAMS) and over 10 MERP scientists joined the discussions providing their expert advice to help identified research and development needs for developing next generation end-to-end (E2E) marine ecosystem models to meet existing and emerging policy drivers. Community-driven recommendations and key messages from the workshop were taken forward by the EMB Working Group on Marine Ecosystem Modelling into an EMB Policy Brief in which MERP is featured as a case study.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.marineboard.eu/sites/marineboard.eu/files/public/publication/EMB_FSB4_MarEco_Modelling_We...
 
Description MARINE ECOSYSTEMS RESEARCH PROGRAMME - FISH, FISHERIES AND FISHING 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Summary cards were created to distill MERP research and outputs. This publication relates to fish and fisheries and is designed to highlight where MERP can provide information and fill knowledge gaps. The publication supports further information that is available on the website and provides contact information to follow up for further information.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.marine-ecosystems.org.uk/getmedia/89f2afd2-5447-4d3b-b011-676397ead1ae/MERP_Fish-Fisherie...
 
Description MARINE ECOSYSTEMS RESEARCH PROGRAMME - Final Science Meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact MERP hosted its final Science Meeting at the Royal Society in London, April 2018. The event was attended not only by the full MERP science community but also by people from statutory agencies and other interested organisations including but not limited to: Natural England, Defra, JNCC, MMO, Marine Scotland, Marine Stewardship Council, National Federation of Fishermans Organisation, Natural Resources Wales, Scottish Natural Heritage, WWF and other businesses. The scientific outcomes and achievements of the programme were shared across the community. The meeting included plenty of time for discussion and questions from the diverse audience.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.marine-ecosystems.org.uk/Resources/Events
 
Description MARINE ECOSYSTEMS RESEARCH PROGRAMME - MODELLING 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Summary cards were created to distill MERP research and outputs. This publication provides an overview of the MERP models and the food-web categories that are their inputs and outputs. The publication supports further information that is available on the website and provides contact information to follow up for further information.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.marine-ecosystems.org.uk/getmedia/cd177284-a9b2-4e02-9b70-9a27aaf24a21/MERP_Modelling_Lea...
 
Description MERP Modelling Interactive 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The MERP Modelling interactive allows users to explore MERP models and the food web categories that are their inputs and outputs. The interactive allows the user to easily learn about what each model does and what information it can provide at varying spatial scales. It tells you about what categories are included within each model and importantly who to contact for further information. The aim of this interactive is to inform people about the model and how they might be applied for decision making in a clear and transparent manner. The interactive was developed conjunction our Stakeholder Advisory Group in order to ensure it was fit for purpose.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.marine-ecosystems.org.uk/Research_outcomes/Model_Interactive
 
Description MERP Stakeholder Symposium 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact In April 2018 MERP hosted a symposium for a broad range of stakeholders. Throughout the 4-year programme MERP has engaged actively with stakeholders including relevant marine policy formers, managers, regulators, NGOs, and industry. The Symposium was design to allow us to share with stakeholders across the UK how the advances made across MERP could support the broad management and sustainable use of the UK's marine environment.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description MERP annual meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact Informing wider programme team and stakeholders of progress and discuss next stages of work.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description MERP modelling workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact Model - data integration workshop. Showcase models to observationalists, incl. hands-on sessions and discussions on the way forward.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description The NERC/Defra marine Ecosystems Research Programme 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact MERP Project Coordinator shared information about what MERP had achieved and promoted the Stakeholder Symposium which will be taking place in April 2018 amongst the wide range of stakeholders at the event. This drummed up good support and interest for the later symposium.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Webinar presentation of MERP work on two-way coupled higher-lower trophic level models 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A talk was given as part of the Cefas webinar series attended by Cefas and University of East Anglia scientists, academics and students.
The purpose was to describe results of work done undre this award by Cefas and PML on coupling models of lower trohics levels (ERSEM) to size spectrum fish models.
There was a much discussion afterwards and interest in develping this work further in new projects.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Work accepted for presentation at the EGU General Assembly 2019 (Modelling how environmental change a?ects benthic biodiversity with a biogeochemical model) by Dr. Jonathan Beecham 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Attendance al presentation of MERP work at the EGU 2019 by Jonathan Beecham.
The presentation is entitled "Modelling how environmental change a?ects benthic biodiversity with a biogeochemical model"
The EGU General Assembly 2019, taking place in Vienna (Austria) on 7-12 April 2019, will bring together geoscientists from all over the world to one meeting covering all disciplines of the Earth, planetary, and space sciences.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2019/EGU2019-15916.pdf