Integrating Macroecology and Modelling to Elucidate Regulation of Services from Ecosystems

Coastal and shelf marine ecosystems are highly productive, bringing great benefits to humans. These benefits, called "ecosystem services" include food supply, recycling and recreation. Coastal and shelf seas are rich, productive and close to large human populations, so they are under great pressure from factors such as fishing and climate change.

Despite years of intensive study, our knowledge of how shelf ecosystems work is still patchy. Therefore we cannot yet predict how they will respond to changes. IMMERSE combines researchers with complementary track records from across 11 UK institutes. We will develop an integrated, whole-ecosystem approach to understand how changes occur in marine ecosystems and how these affect the services they provide. We will a) synthesise and analyse the vast array of existing, but scattered, data, b) target key data gaps and choke-points in our understanding with focussed fieldwork and experimentation and c) combine these into a suite of computer models that explore future consequences of changes and perturbations for ecosystem services. Our geographical focus will be the western seas, from the western English Channel, through the Celtic and Irish Seas, to western Scotland, although relevant data will be included from a wider area.

The novelty of this project is fourfold:

First, we will use novel web-based approaches to combine existing datasets and rate process measurements, from microbes to whales, and at whole shelf scales. By combining these datasets and published data, we can deduce the underlying "ecological rules" that operate at the level of the individual but lead to patterns at the ecosystem scale - for example how an organism's mortality or feeding rate depends on its body size and the ambient temperature.

Second we will target key knowledge gaps by applying the latest method developments in understanding food webs. We will use isotopic methods to trace the relative input of seaweed and planktonic algae into the base of the food web; we will follow these isotopic tracers in the lab and in the wild to understand exactly how these plants are incorporated into the rest of food web; we will use new image analysis technology to quantify the full size range of organisms in the sea; and we will use the latest molecular techniques to trace who eats whom.

The third novelty is that we will use not just one model to understand these ecosystem linkages but six models, all based on different assumptions. This "ensemble" approach is similar to climate forecasting, but is in its infancy in the sea. We will inform these models with the data synthesised and collected above, and then compare the output across the whole ensemble. This approach limits the shortcomings of any single model for a more robust picture of how the ecosystem works. These models will then be challenged with different scenarios of change, for example changing fishing effort or establishing conservation zones, with and without warming.

The fourth novelty of our approach is that we include a small but important socioeconomic part to our proposal. This will enable policy makers to convert the output from models into economic valuations and indicators, so that judgements can be made on management decisions for a suite of marine ecosystem services.

IMMERSE is part of a larger NERC funding scheme, and its outputs spanning the whole of the food web will be tailored to support the next two rounds of funding: first in developing NERC's model of the lower reaches of the food web, and second in testing efficiency of potential management interventions. The legacies of this project will include tools and combined datasets that will place the UK in a leading position to understand whole ecosystems and the consequences of change in terms of ecosystem services.

The IMMERSE programme will have far reaching impact upon a diverse range of beneficiaries, including policy makers, environmental managers, marine monitoring initiatives and wider society. The programme outputs will place the UK as an international leader in macroecology and ecosystem modelling by improving understanding of the regulation of key ecosystem services, scale-dependence in the underlying processes, functional diversity at different trophic levels and the impact of stressors on the marine environment. It will also provide vital data for, and improvements to, UK marine modelling to explore the impact of environmental change on the structure, function and services associated with marine food webs across scales.
The research and outputs generated by the programme will primarily be of direct relevance and benefit to UK and European policymakers and environmental managers working towards the sustainable exploitation of the UK and Europe's marine environment. These include those working within the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Marine Scotland, Scottish Natural Heritage, Natural Resources Wales, Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC), United Nations Environmental Programme, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization's Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and others. By using already well-established links with these organizations and developing these further, targeted outputs will be disseminated to policy beneficiaries to help refine current indicators of state and drivers, ensuring a common currency and, therefore, a smooth transition of robust science between the scientific and policy communities.

The novel, whole system approach employed in IMMERSE will also be of benefit to a wide range of organisations and networks with an interest or involvement in marine monitoring, resource management, marine planning, fisheries, aquaculture, energy provision, licencing, predicting ecosystem change, conservation and food security. The programme will consolidate a range of data sources to provide these organisations and networks with clean, rationalised datasets that are of meaningful and add value to their activities. These include: AFBI, British Ecological Society (BES), Celtic Seas Partnership (CPS), Cefas, Sea Watch Foundation, fisheries Regional Advisory Councils, RSPB, Valuing Nature Network, Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership, and data networking and integrating groups such as Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS), World Register of Marine Species (WoRMS), National Biodiversity Network, Marine Environmental Data and Information Network (MEDIN), UK Integrated Marine Observing Network (UKIMON), European Marine Ecosystem Observatory (EMECO), UK Marine Monitoring and Assessment Strategy Evidence Groups, NERC Knowledge Exchange Programme on Sustainable Food Production, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, British Marine Aggregate Producers Association, Ifremer and IUCN. Existing collaborations combined with new links will facilitate the dissemination and publicity of IMMERSE outputs to the benefit of these organisations and networks.

There is a wider public interest in the research of IMMERSE in that shelf seas are a source of food and energy that is susceptible to environmental change with subsequent socio-economic implications. This includes interest from educational institutes that often require societally-relevant, novel issues to provide context to the science curriculum. This programme will also demonstrate to wider interest groups the shift from individual, narrowly focused studies to "big picture" research endeavours, designed to feed into addressing large social challenges and illustrate how marine science can provide wide-ranging benefits to society.
Methods for engaging with stakeholders are described in the IMMERSE Pathways to Impact.