Metropole

Lead Research Organisation: King's College London
Department Name: Geography

Abstract

The hypothesis is that risk knowledge is best understood as being co-produced by science and by the social, political and cultural context. While researchers have studied the role of visualization tools in decision making, new research is needed to understand how the social, cultural and political context impacts how decision makers and the public perceive and respond to potential local environmental, economic and health risks due to large-scale change. The research team will develop downscaled models for communities in Brazil, the United Kingdom, and the United States and engage stakeholders and policymakers in participatory planning meetings to analyze the social and cultural factors that impact decision making and regional adaptive capacity. For each site, we will co-produce scenarios using state-of-the-art visualization tools developed in Brazil and the US. Data include changes in sea level, temperature, storm frequency, precipitation and other variables in the past 100 years and high resolution (10km) projections in 5-10 year increments to 2070 under the IPCC's 5th AR scenarios. The tools integrate scientific and economic data for the smallest local area, and illustrate potential impacts on infrastructure, health, economic risk, adaptation options, and cost-benefit analyses over time. The social research will use: 1) surveys to analyze values and beliefs prior to and after meetings, 2) choice evaluation models to study risk/cost trade-offs in the meeting, and 3) interviews after the meeting to assess the Adaptive Capacity Index (developed in the UK). Expected results include: a new framework to integrate scientific, economic and cultural factors into adaptation planning; insights on the role of values and beliefs in adaptation decision making; and resources to improve public engagement strategies in any coastal community.

Planned Impact

Dissemination to State Agencies - Florida Department of Community Planning:
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has funded the State of Florida's Department of Economic Opportunity (DEO) to support the project "Community Resiliency Initiative-CRI: Planning for Sea Level Rise" (07/01/11 - 06/30/16; $899,000). This initiative was established to analyze the statewide planning framework to determine how to best integrate sea level rise into the existing adaptation process. The initiative will facilitate planning and implement adaptation plans for two pilot communities to evaluate planning guidance, modeling and vulnerability analysis for statewide application, determine effective modes for communicating sea level rise risks, and deliver technical assistance to support sea level rise adaptation to a diverse audience. The DEO convened a group of statewide experts to serve as the CRI Focus Group, which meets 10 times a year via conference calls. METROPOLE senior personnel (Reynolds) serves on the CRI Focus Group and will solicit input from members. Julie Dennis, planning analyst with the FL DEO and manager of the CRI and other staff will provide input on the
socio-economic research, on development of educational programs/materials for planners and elected officials, and help facilitate communications to the state agencies.

Dissemination to NOAA's Network of Scientists and Professionals:
NOAA Coastal Services Center (CSC) established a partnership with six national non-profit organizations representing major user interests for a Digital Coast program which features NOAA funded visualization tools and training programs for coastal planning and resource management. NOAA seeks to facilitate effective use of these tools to improve adaptation planning at the local level and give feedback on tools. The NOAA CSC funds a network of extension agents around the country who conduct research and support education and outreach. Through NOAA's various line offices, we will also reach coastal zone managers and technical professionals. We will: discuss research and findings with members of the Gulf of Mexico Climate Outreach Community of Practice; participate in the annual workshop; and give access to surveys, adaptive capacity questions and tools.

Dissemination to Professionals and Communities in the UK: Climate South East brings together public, private and voluntary sector organizations in the South East of England to work on climate issues. They have a strong track record in sharing information and facilitate improved understanding to carry out research, develop solutions and inform policy decisions. Their program activities include: 1) workshops for members and stakeholders to address specific aspects of adapting to climate change impacts; 2) Projects to focus on member research needs about climate change impacts, develop tools for adaptation, or to demonstrate good practices; 3) Raising awareness of climate change issues and responses within and beyond the membership, through electronic communications. Their Communities Work Group collects and promotes examples of community-led climate change programs and solutions that can be replicated. They focus on organizational development and change management.

Dissemination to Professionals and Communities in Brazil:
PPDC (Preventive Plan of Civil Defense) is a group formally organized in many coastal cities of São Paulo state formed by researchers, decision makers, civil defense and local representatives that work together to minimize impacts of hydro-meteorological events in the area. The group has had a significant impact in the decrease in deaths and the engagement of the population through preventive training courses. PPDC has a long and effective track record of operational programs, including roles and responsibilities, communication system, training and dissemination of findings outside the region.

Publications

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Marengo (2017) American Journal of Climate Change in An Integrated Framework to Analyze Local Decision Making and Adaptation to Sea Level Rise in Coastal Regions in Selsey

 
Description We have developed and tested an Adaptive Capacity Index and have also made linkages with local partners in case study sites to enable the deployment of the tool in early-mid 2015.
Exploitation Route The developed model is applicable to other contexts where organistional capacity or culture will constrain or shape adaptive action.
Sectors Environment,Other

 
Description Research is still ongoing, no impacts yet planned.
 
Description Florida Community Meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact City meeting to present initial findings of a sealevel rise adaptation cost-benefit analysis and organisational mapping exercise.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description House of Commons impact workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact An event at the House of Commons highlighting KCL Geography impact, Metropole was one of ten projects included. The aim was to being high-level policy and some political awareness of the project.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Santos Community Meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact City meeting to present initial findings of a sealevel rise adaptation cost-benefit analysis and organisational mapping exercise.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Selsey Small Towns Advocacy Meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Motivational meeting to facilitate collaboration between small towns on the UK south coast exposed to sealevel rise and excluded from government support.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://climateuk.net/news/selsey-steps
 
Description Selsey Town Hall Meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact A Community outreach workshop used to present initial research findings and gain insight from local actors on the parameters for a second round of analysis of the economic costs of sea-defense, and local preferences for a range of options.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015