GULLS SU
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Southampton
Department Name: School of Geography
Abstract
SUMMARY
Many coastal communities rely on marine resources for livelihoods and food security. As populations increase, so does pressure on coastal resources already under stress from pollution, coastal development, and habitat degradation. Climate change and variability (including extreme events) will also impact coastal systems and the vulnerability of dependent communities, but may also bring opportunities. This project will contribute to improving community adaptation efforts by characterizing, assessing and predicting the future of coastal-marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge across regional "hotspots", defined here as fast-warming marine areas and areas experiencing social tensions as a result of change. Hotspots are likely to include the priority areas for adaptation and also represent laboratories for observing change and developing adaptation options and management strategies. Comparing hotspot regions will extend existing collaborations and connect local adaptation research and outcomes to improve global learning. Focusing on adaptation options and strategies for enhancing coastal resilience at the local level will contribute to capacity building and local empowerment.
Current weaknesses in marine coastal management include limited integration of natural and social studies, poor translation of scientific understanding into adaptive management mechanisms, and few guidelines for policy development. A holistic system approach will be piloted within one hotspot region (western Indian Ocean) through an existing Alliance of experts and researchers, prior to application in other hotspot regions (India, Brazil, South Africa, Australia). Integration of natural, social and economic studies will identify a range of options for management and policy reform. These alternatives will be delivered as briefing materials to managers and decision-makers in coastal communities and society at large. There are existing strong partnerships within and between the focal regions in this project, and strong scientific and political support for the development of effective science-based governance approaches. This project will deliver a comprehensive set of options to reduce coastal vulnerability and position vulnerable coastal communities for an improved future.
Many coastal communities rely on marine resources for livelihoods and food security. As populations increase, so does pressure on coastal resources already under stress from pollution, coastal development, and habitat degradation. Climate change and variability (including extreme events) will also impact coastal systems and the vulnerability of dependent communities, but may also bring opportunities. This project will contribute to improving community adaptation efforts by characterizing, assessing and predicting the future of coastal-marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge across regional "hotspots", defined here as fast-warming marine areas and areas experiencing social tensions as a result of change. Hotspots are likely to include the priority areas for adaptation and also represent laboratories for observing change and developing adaptation options and management strategies. Comparing hotspot regions will extend existing collaborations and connect local adaptation research and outcomes to improve global learning. Focusing on adaptation options and strategies for enhancing coastal resilience at the local level will contribute to capacity building and local empowerment.
Current weaknesses in marine coastal management include limited integration of natural and social studies, poor translation of scientific understanding into adaptive management mechanisms, and few guidelines for policy development. A holistic system approach will be piloted within one hotspot region (western Indian Ocean) through an existing Alliance of experts and researchers, prior to application in other hotspot regions (India, Brazil, South Africa, Australia). Integration of natural, social and economic studies will identify a range of options for management and policy reform. These alternatives will be delivered as briefing materials to managers and decision-makers in coastal communities and society at large. There are existing strong partnerships within and between the focal regions in this project, and strong scientific and political support for the development of effective science-based governance approaches. This project will deliver a comprehensive set of options to reduce coastal vulnerability and position vulnerable coastal communities for an improved future.
Planned Impact
IMPACT SUMMARY
This project has a number of impact, engagement and dissemination elements related to the overall project objectives and the general communication of outputs. Our general science communication objective is to ensure the outputs of the project translate into meaningful action at political/management and whole societal levels. In particular the project aims to communicate the impacts of human population growth and ocean change on coastal systems, and promote the uptake of adaptation options identified in the project. The target audiences include the policy-makers and management agencies for both conservation and fisheries sectors and end users associated with livelihood supporting industries such as tourism; recreational, artisanal, subsistence & commercial fishing in these social and natural climate hotspots.
The specific impact, engagement and dissemination objectives are to:
1. Connect with and inform researchers and end users (including resource users, managers and policy-makers) at local, regional and international scales, about critical aspects of coastal vulnerability with regard to preserving coastal biodiversity and ecosystem services including fisheries productivity, while understanding and accommodating the needs of coastal communities. This is intended to be a two-way dialogue rather than a uni-directional transfer of "knowledge" from the "informed" (e.g. "experts" on the GULLS team) to the "un-informed" (target audiences);
2. For the regional case studies, inform and engage end users to understand and address the likely impacts and adaptation and mitigation options to reduce their vulnerability to external drivers, including environmental variability and climate change;
3. Provide information and guidance for the development of realistic adaptation, mitigation management and policy options to reduce coastal vulnerability with regard to food security and local livelihoods;
4. Compare the project findings with other related initiatives around the world (both with fellow Belmont Forum projects and others).
Within the GULLS Project, communications objectives will be achieved through regular project updates and electronic updates to connect our dispersed research team. Workshops will provide a focus for the first objective, with engagement materials to raise awareness of the threats that lead to heightened coastal vulnerability. Beyond the immediate team, project members also have experience with preparation of fact sheets and web-based materials for a range of stakeholders (Hobday, Pecl). Our key messages to be delivered in these various forms relative to the first objective are likely to be:
1. Fast warming regions will experience impacts before other regions, and so inhabitants of these regions must be on the front foot with regard to information access and discussion of possible responses;
2. The consequences of expected climate variability and change will exacerbate existing coastal threats;
3. There are likely to be both positive and negative impacts at the coasts, and so this project will identify opportunities for improvement, efficiencies, and adaptations that can improve the livelihoods for coastal populations.
A focus will also be on making information available in accessible formats which will help coastal communities to effectively engage with the issues and make informed decisions and take action in both their personal activities and by effectively engaging local governance structures and other community members in addressing the various challenges facing them.
This project has a number of impact, engagement and dissemination elements related to the overall project objectives and the general communication of outputs. Our general science communication objective is to ensure the outputs of the project translate into meaningful action at political/management and whole societal levels. In particular the project aims to communicate the impacts of human population growth and ocean change on coastal systems, and promote the uptake of adaptation options identified in the project. The target audiences include the policy-makers and management agencies for both conservation and fisheries sectors and end users associated with livelihood supporting industries such as tourism; recreational, artisanal, subsistence & commercial fishing in these social and natural climate hotspots.
The specific impact, engagement and dissemination objectives are to:
1. Connect with and inform researchers and end users (including resource users, managers and policy-makers) at local, regional and international scales, about critical aspects of coastal vulnerability with regard to preserving coastal biodiversity and ecosystem services including fisheries productivity, while understanding and accommodating the needs of coastal communities. This is intended to be a two-way dialogue rather than a uni-directional transfer of "knowledge" from the "informed" (e.g. "experts" on the GULLS team) to the "un-informed" (target audiences);
2. For the regional case studies, inform and engage end users to understand and address the likely impacts and adaptation and mitigation options to reduce their vulnerability to external drivers, including environmental variability and climate change;
3. Provide information and guidance for the development of realistic adaptation, mitigation management and policy options to reduce coastal vulnerability with regard to food security and local livelihoods;
4. Compare the project findings with other related initiatives around the world (both with fellow Belmont Forum projects and others).
Within the GULLS Project, communications objectives will be achieved through regular project updates and electronic updates to connect our dispersed research team. Workshops will provide a focus for the first objective, with engagement materials to raise awareness of the threats that lead to heightened coastal vulnerability. Beyond the immediate team, project members also have experience with preparation of fact sheets and web-based materials for a range of stakeholders (Hobday, Pecl). Our key messages to be delivered in these various forms relative to the first objective are likely to be:
1. Fast warming regions will experience impacts before other regions, and so inhabitants of these regions must be on the front foot with regard to information access and discussion of possible responses;
2. The consequences of expected climate variability and change will exacerbate existing coastal threats;
3. There are likely to be both positive and negative impacts at the coasts, and so this project will identify opportunities for improvement, efficiencies, and adaptations that can improve the livelihoods for coastal populations.
A focus will also be on making information available in accessible formats which will help coastal communities to effectively engage with the issues and make informed decisions and take action in both their personal activities and by effectively engaging local governance structures and other community members in addressing the various challenges facing them.
People |
ORCID iD |
Chris Hill (Principal Investigator) | |
Craig Hutton (Co-Investigator) |
Publications

Brown S
(2018)
What are the implications of sea-level rise for a 1.5, 2 and 3 °C rise in global mean temperatures in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and other vulnerable deltas?
in Regional Environmental Change

Brown S
(2022)
Assessing hazards and disaster risk on the coast for Pacific small island developing States: the need for a data-driven approach
in Anthropocene Coasts


Townend I
(2022)
Introducing a web-based portal to explore the concept of coastal resilience
in Anthropocene Coasts
Description | Collaboration with new partners and a wider understanding of the vulnerability of coastal, especially deltaic communities through examination of hotspot mapping approaches. Technical use of global agroecological zone data for linking marine with terrestrial socio-ecological outputs / food security vulnerabilities. |
Exploitation Route | Potential support to coastal community planning and integrated coastal zone management applications. through the elaboration of the Marine Exposure index and the Terrestrial Index developed within the vulnerability analysis. Further development of the model and tools for rapid assessment of scenarios and to support the development of decision and policy support and the downscaling of the approaches to address coastal community food security at regional and local levels. Publication and open access data of model runs for varied crop and marine production scenarios. Further development of the predictors of marine and coastal production. There is additional intention to take this forward in a range of other programmes capitalising on relationships built through associated projects in Tanzania/Zanzibar and in Ghana Volta / West Africa and a proposal currently in development as part of a GCRF proposal project formulation, which would aim to use the outputs of this research. |
Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Communities and Social Services/Policy Environment Government Democracy and Justice |
Description | Further work on the Blue Economy aspect of the GULLS activity have been incorporated into DECCMA / IRDC funded research which has informed the Bay of Bengal and Gulf of Guinea primary and secondary production estimates under conditions of climate change - working with PML. The hotspots work in both the GULLS project and the DECCMA programmes are relevant to the development of contractual applications. These data, findings and potentially the collaborations are now being integrated into non-academic applications to be made in 2019 on blue economy in Bangladesh. Development of approaches to social-environmental indicators from which hotspots of vulnerability can be evaluated. The findings are being used to develop the ocean-based exposure index combined with information on crop yield projections under conditions of climate change to assess how the food security related vulnerabilities will change. The findings are being used to develop further analysis to look at the potential exposed populations using global population databases and to explore adaptation options within food production systems. Further work has targeted the broader hazard, vulnerability and risk framework that is being integrated into other programmes in West Bengal Sundarbans in the coastal zone, in the development of a NERC-funded, UK-based Coastal Resilience programme evaluating the indicators for social, economic and environmental resilience in the coastal zone. This has led to a series of seminars and datatsets published that provide access to the national datasets of coastal resilience. In addition, the concepts of risk have been taken into the development of the BigData projects for UK coastal waters, providing a range of tools and techniques for situational awareness and operational thresholds built on modelled metocean parameters and vessel operating conditions and the risk to life at sea. Furthermore, the concepts have been developed into a new research programme on coastal vulnerability associated with Pacific Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and we are working with country partners on climate change scenarios and the implications of community vulnerabilities in developing scenarios for food security and livelihoods which is developing a collaboration with the UN FAO (Food and Agriculture Organisation) in support of their Hand in Hand initaitive. |
First Year Of Impact | 2017 |
Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Communities and Social Services/Policy,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Environment |
Impact Types | Societal Policy & public services |
Description | Coastal resilience in the face of sea-level rise: making the most of natural systems |
Amount | £252,005 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/S016651/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 02/2019 |
End | 10/2020 |
Description | DFID country fund |
Amount | £144,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2016 |
End | 03/2018 |
Description | Data management assessment DEVELOPING A DATA MANAGEMENT STRATEGY FOR THE CARIAA PROGRAM |
Amount | £3,350 (GBP) |
Organisation | Infectious Diseases Research Collaboration (IDRC) |
Department | Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | Canada |
Start | 09/2014 |
End | 01/2015 |
Description | Mainstreaming Climate Risks into FAO Programming at Country-level: Utility of a Framework Approach: NaF-SAR |
Amount | $35,000 (USD) |
Organisation | Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | Italy |
Start | 04/2019 |
End | 12/2020 |
Description | PRISE |
Amount | £45,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Overseas Development Institute (ODI) |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 02/2016 |
End | 10/2016 |
Title | CoastalRes: Coastal Resilience Model Prototype |
Description | The prototype Coastal Resilience Model (CRM) quantifies the economic, environmental and social dimensions of resilience with reference to a suite of performance measures that can be assessed using open-access geospatial datasets. The analytical approach uses Multiple-Criteria Analysis (MCA) methodology to derive a composite Resilience Index derived from a broad set of diverse measures and data, as well as stakeholder weightings. MCA has been criticised for the inherent subjectivity in the identification of the measures, and their normalisation (scoring) and relative weighting. However, used constructively, it provides an explicit and transparent representation of different stakeholder perspectives and priorities which are an essential component of evaluating resilience. CRM expands current risk-based shoreline management planning to take account of some of the complexity of community characteristics and local priorities, while recognising that these occur within a much broader coastal system. In addition to mapping the current state of coastal resilience, the CRM can also represent past and future resilience. Given suitable hazard and socio-economic scenarios, modelled resilience time trajectories can be created using CRM to reveal the impact of alternative coastal development and adaptive pathways Townend, Ian H and Carpenter, Stephen and Hill, Chris and Brown, Sally and French, Jon and Haigh, Ivan and Lazarus, Eli and Nicholls, Robert J and Penning-Rowsell, Edmund and Tompkins, Emma (2021). CoastalRes: Coastal Resilience Model Prototype, 2019-2020. [Data Collection]. Colchester, Essex: UK Data Service. 10.5255/UKDA-SN-854523 |
Type Of Material | Data analysis technique |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The project demonstrated how resilience to coastal flood and erosion hazard could be measured and applied within policy processes, using England as a case study. |
URL | https://reshare.ukdataservice.ac.uk/854523/ |
Title | Delta Portal - is an open access database for observational and modelled data from global deltas research |
Description | Delta Portal is a research database holding the data outputs from multi-disciplinary research activities in delta regions. Currently, it has records from both global level studies and localised studies in India, Bangladesh and Ghana and aims to expand the records from collaborative programmes in a number of countries. Data are available for view and download and are accompanied by metadata. Access the site at http://www.delta-portal.net/. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The data are downloadable and can be integrated into other programmes, originally set up in the IRDC funded DECMMA project it is now supporting projects in West Bengal under the NERC TASE (towards a sustainable Earth programme) and the GCRF GRoW project on BRECCIA and the similar programmes in Bangladesh and Vietnam. It is also providing part of the overarching framework for data management associated with these projects, providing a more robust data management plan. |
URL | http://www.delta-portal.net |
Description | Natural Resource Systems at Risk |
Organisation | Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) |
Country | Italy |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | Workshop to elaborate and develop a framework for the individual planning tasks needed to create an integrated pathway from data collection to policy options selection and management of decisions in the field of food security and Natural Resource Management. The aim was to contribute to the Strategic Objectives (SO5) as a natural recipient of some of the findings and techniques of using GAEZ and the Natural Resources Systems at Risk workflows to examine scenarios (including climate change scenarios) for food security within hazard zones. This directly parallels work with Global Agroecological Zones (GAEZ) within GULLs vulnerability modelling. |
Collaborator Contribution | Funding and collaboration across the house to provide access to develop the concepts for the framework - including fisheries, water and food security and statistics divisional staff. |
Impact | Internal report to FAO, Natural Resources & Food Security - Systems at Risk (NaFSAR): A Development Strategy Hutton, C.W., Hill, C,T., Poppy, G., Dyke, J. & Allan, A: March 2015 |
Start Year | 2014 |
Description | Visit to IIASA |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Meeting with IIASA to review use of global datasets to support globalisation of the research outputs and use of high resolution data and support the development of collaborations with IIASA and IFAD. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |