Resolving Climate Impacts on shelf and CoastaL sea Ecosystems (ReCICLE)

Lead Research Organisation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Department Name: Plymouth Marine Lab

Abstract

Shelf and coastal seas provide vital services for society, notably food, from fish, and climate regulation, through their role in drawing down and storing atmospheric CO2. The ecosystems of these seas are vulnerable to global climate change, arising from greenhouse gas emissions. Being able to provide reliable future projections of the impacts of climate change on these regions is therefore vital for our knowledge of how these services may be impacted. The overall purpose of the proposed work is to identify and quantify the potential future response to climate change of the simple plant life (phytoplankton) forming the base of the food chain of the shelf sea ecosystems and to assess the likely range of this response. To deliver this we use a state of the art coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem model at an exceptionally fine resolution. This is driven by the output of global climate models, which along with aspects of the ecosystem model structure, are selected so as to span the potential response of the system to climate change, and provide a range of views of the future. Statistical methods are then used to characterise this response in terms of timeseries and changes in areas of similar properties (the biogeography), how clearly the climate signal can be detected and how this signal propagates through the food web.
We focus on five key indicators of ecosystem response on the Northwest European Continental shelf (termed intermediate services): primary production (plant growth), oxygen uptake, nutrient transport, uptake and recycling, biological control (how energy and material is transferred between different levels in the food web), and the habitat of the water column. The impact of climate change (through changes in the atmosphere, open ocean and terrestrial forcing) on the physical and chemical processes will affect these key indicators in different ways. Examples include: modification of the shelf sea nutrient distribution by changes in oceanic mixing, changes to the timing and magnitude of spring phytoplankton blooms due to changes in wind mixing and light levels, and changes to sea water temperature directly affecting growth rates. The physical processes active in the regions of these seas where primary production is highest are generally of finer scale than many model systems can accommodate, examples include extra mixing generated by steep and variable topography, plumes of nutrient and sediment rich river water, and fronts between well mixed and seasonally stratified waters. The potential effects of climate change on the finescale processes is largely unknown, but may radically change our view of the overall impact of climate change in these seas. Alongside the details of the physics, the complexity of the ecosystem must also be accounted for. There a several feedbacks at the base of the food web, which control how chemical energy cycles through the system. If different elements of this cycle, e.g. grazing by zooplankton and nutrient recycling by bacteria, respond to change in different ways then the overall effect may be amplified or suppressed. This amplification or suppression determines how vulnerable the overlying services (e.g. fish production) are to climate change, and hence the potential societal implications.
To address these issues we propose a tightly integrated programme of model experiment design, simulation, evaluation and analysis, organised in four work packages: Experiment design and uncertainty, Model validation using observational analysis, Analysis of ecosystem response, Model products. Together this will produce an unprecedented view of potential climate impacts on marine ecosystems, including the effects of fine-scale physical processes, non-linear ecosystem interactions and an assessment of the range of likely impacts. We will condense this information into a set of model products that are readily accessible by scientists of other disciplines and wider stakeholders.

Planned Impact

The project offers benefits for three different groups: Policy makers, including: UK government departments: particularly DEFRA and DECC, but potentially also DFID and MOD; UK governmental agencies such as CEFAS, MMO, Marine Scotland, AFBI, EA and Met Office, Intergovernmental bodies: ICES, EEA, OSPAR, and IPCC. Industry, including: Living Marine Resources: fisheries and aquaculture; mineral extraction: oil and gas; Insurance; off shore; renewable energy; maritime operations and transport. General public
How they will benifit:

Science into Policy:
The project will provide the first clear view of potential impacts of climate change on the lower trophic level ecosystem of the Northwest European shelf seas at a local to regional scale that includes estimates of uncertainty and confidence, and as such will be an important resource for informing future policy development, to adapt to and build resilience against this change. The two most relevant policy aspects, from a UK perspective, are the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). The MSFD requires EC member states to develop strategies to achieve a healthy marine environment and make ecosystems more resilient to climate change in all European marine waters by 2020 at the latest. This work will directly inform the resilience aspect and how these issues are likely to evolve 30 years beyond the MSFD target period. This is particular relevant to how characteristics, targets and indicators may change for the following high level descriptors of good environmental status: 1 Biodiversity; 4 Foodwebs; 5, Eutrophication; and 7 Hydrography. The CFP has committed itself to implement an ecosystem approach to fisheries management thereby aligning itself with the Integrated Maritime Policy and ensuring the sustainable provision of goods and services from living aquatic resources. This work provides important underpinning evidence as to what might constitute 'sustainable', which could, with added value from Fisheries scientists, be translated into realistic targets of Maximum sustainable Yield (as specified in the on-going CFP reform). The work also has the potential to help marine spatial planning for habitat identification and the definition of marine protected areas, and whether these have long-term resilience.
While the work here focuses on Northern European waters, the model tools are widely applicable to shelf seas around the world. The methodological aspect of this work potentially benefits other regions looking to perform similar model experiments and assessments in their shelf and coastal seas. This is especially relevant for less developed counties where benefits for food security and poverty alleviation issues are more substantial that in Northern European Seas.
The 'physics only' simulations provide a resource for other policy relevant issues, notably coastal defence and naval operations.

Wealth Creation:
There is a growing demand for rigorously assessed information about potential future climate states, apparent in the emerging 'Climate Services' sector. This work could feed information into this industry with a wide range of beneficiaries. The ecosystem focus of this work particularly lends its impact to the fisheries and aquaculture sectors, while the hydrodynamic simulation has direct relevance for the oil (maritime operations) and gas (pipe line efficiency) sectors. The near coastal nature of this work has potential relevance, with further work on sea level impacts, to the insurance industry interested in coastal flood risk. The specific benefits of this work would be the fine scale of the information and the treatment of uncertainty and confidence.

Media Relations and Public Engagement: There is considerable public interest in climate change effects in the marine environment and several groups could potentially benefit from this work through education, general interest and careers inspiration.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Title IOP Physics Communicators Group - IOP Gallery representative 
Description The IOP is building a new head quarters at Kings Cross in London. As part of this we have an IOP Gallery that hosts and promotes artistic investigation of physics. The theme for 2018 is Time. I am the national group representative and we act as a 'critical friend' to help with communication and theme development of the Gallery subjects. 
Type Of Art Artistic/Creative Exhibition 
Year Produced 2017 
Impact I am the group point of contact for this and act as a 'critical friend' for this activity in the IOP. 
 
Title The Art and Craft of Communicating Physics 
Description This is our IOP Physics Communicators annual award ceremony. I am part of the assessment panel for this and we had Helen Czerski as our guest speaker and final panel judge. In this we discussed and shared effective ways to ensure research knowledge is effectively communicated (using artistic and creative channels as well as more traditional ones) so it has a public, local, National and international lasting appeal. 
Type Of Art Creative Writing 
Year Produced 2017 
Impact Sharing of best practice on communicating physics so that it has an effective and lasting policy and public impact. 
 
Description CCI community: Recommendations on improved ENSO phenomenon identification with CCI and CMIP signal decomposition
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description ODA Marine and Earth system scoping and resource targeting analysis
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description Participation in IOP and RAS joint consulation with REF2021 Town hall
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a national consultation
Impact This input provided a strong recommendation to reform the strategy of how we assess our research to ensure we align with the contemporary goals. These are to give parity of diversity and opportunity, strong long term investment and to develop and even more engaged interdisciplinary understanding of physics throughout our culture (academic and public).
 
Description Professional National role in Institute of Physics: Physics Communicators Group
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact My impact is strategic influence where it is relevant and in line with our National science policy. I take this very seriously as a CPhys, MInstP and FRSS. One of the key needs of our agile research culture is a well connected and interdisciplinary research culture. The UK's science is leading edge and provides leadership internationally. One of my impacts is to use established physical knowledge and while retaining the mathematical rigour of the methods, to communicate this much more widely to the non-mathematical academic community. This is especially important in Earth System Science where it is essential to enhance this agile research culture. I am leading the development of 'Coffee cup science: town hall meetings' as a public and academic engagement activity that helps create our agile research culture. In this committee we are also promoting wider diversity in the National research culture activity and are establishing a 'Price of Physics' summer event to promote inclusive engagement with those who identify as LGBT and those who are supportive of this in the research culture. I am part of the team to deliver this and I help ensure this provides and effective solution to this sensitive area of working culture and policy.
 
Description citation in "Climate change and fishery" UK POST note
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
URL https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/POST-PN-0604
 
Description citation in MCCIP report card 2020
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Citation in systematic reviews
URL http://www.mccip.org.uk/impacts-report-cards/full-report-cards/2020/
 
Description Copernicus Marine environment monitoring service (CMEMS)
Amount € 380,000 (EUR)
Organisation Mercator Océan 
Sector Private
Country France
Start 05/2015 
End 04/2018
 
Title Dominant Frequency State Analysis 
Description This is a major novel new method of analysis for climate systems. It will significantly improve all analysis capability in this field. It is a combination of physical dynamical systems theory and statistical likelihood inference. This method (peer assessed and published by JGROceans) is a significant advance of our capability to identify and estimate low amplitude climate dynamic systems that have previously been a challenge to resolve. The method will be helpful for all analyses in Earth System Science. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2017 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact This has updated our understanding of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mechanism. It accurately resolves the low frequency climate modes. The ENSO mechanism is the dominant planetary climate mode. The impact of this theoretical finding will impact all Earth System climate research. The Lead author has shared this work (now as an independent academic researcher and in his professional national role in the Institute of Physics (Physics Communicators Group)) across three EPSRC climate networks (CliMathNet, RECoVER, Past Earth Network) within three professional bodies the IOP, the Royal Statistical Society and the Royal Meteorological Society. The method is being presented at Ocean Sciences 2018 and now forms the basis for NERC and EPSRC research proposal's being formulated in 2018. 
URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JC012892/full
 
Title Time Series Analysis in Earth System Analysis (TSAinESA) 
Description Uses Box Jenkins Transfer Function methodology from which to analyse the underlying features of Earth Systems. The tool is highly adaptable, programmed to be fast and portable (using Python , R combination). 
Type Of Material Model of mechanisms or symptoms - non-mammalian in vivo 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact Proves a standardised way to analyse the presence of dynamic climatic cycles, trends and explanatory features. 
 
Title Extraction of BDY 
Description I generated a method and associated script that automatically extracts boundary condition for any regional ocean model from global dataset and Earth system models from the CMIP5 family to run downscale climate projections 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact the method and script will allow an easier downscaling of climate projection in regional seas 
 
Description Climate Maths Network (CliMathNet) 
Organisation University of Exeter
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Discussion and use of the Dominant Frequency State Analysis method in climate science. Formulation of collaborative research proposal for submission in 2018. Special issue manuscript submitted (abstract accepted for forwarding to the editorial committee). Participation in public engagement activity with the Institute of Physics.
Collaborator Contribution Professional (contracted/ agree to terms and conditions) inclusion in the CliMathNet community network as an Independent Senior Academic Researcher. Very helpful discussions on the mathematical and physical interpretation of wave mechanic phenomenon in the climate system.
Impact Collaboration between the Institute of Physics (Communicators Group) and the Universities of Exeter, Reading and Bath on formulating the public engagement activity: Coffee cup science: town hall meetings to promote an event more agile academic research culture with strong public engagement. This activity has now been adopted by the National IOP Physics Communicators Group and we are working with the regional teams to establish this as a set of activities for 2018. This can become a National activity, with nurturing, so are piloting it in the SW with Climate themes first.
Start Year 2017
 
Description Earth System Analysis methods 
Organisation National Oceanography Centre
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Designed and created a set of Earth System analysis methods and sharing this with NOC. The methods enable signal decomposition and biome identification, estimation and validation.
Collaborator Contribution Identification of signal structure: helping to formulate the Atlantic basin climate scale mapping to regional northern Europe based on discussion and analysis of simulation.
Impact Project workshop to discuss identification of system, demo tools and working manual.
Start Year 2016
 
Description GOA-ON NE Atlantic HUB 
Organisation Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
Country Germany 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution Participation to meetings, contribution with knowledge on how use models to integrate observations of the marine carbonate systems, provide model simulations
Collaborator Contribution Provide background knowledge and data on ocean acidification in the north East Atlantic
Impact the collaboration is highly interdisciplinary involving chemical and biological oceanographers, modellers, earth observation scientists as well as stakeholders. The collaboration just started (kick off meeting on 12th-13th March) therefore no concrete output yet
Start Year 2018
 
Description GOA-ON NE Atlantic HUB 
Organisation Centre For Environment, Fisheries And Aquaculture Science
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Participation to meetings, contribution with knowledge on how use models to integrate observations of the marine carbonate systems, provide model simulations
Collaborator Contribution Provide background knowledge and data on ocean acidification in the north East Atlantic
Impact the collaboration is highly interdisciplinary involving chemical and biological oceanographers, modellers, earth observation scientists as well as stakeholders. The collaboration just started (kick off meeting on 12th-13th March) therefore no concrete output yet
Start Year 2018
 
Description GOA-ON NE Atlantic HUB 
Organisation Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency of Germany
Country Germany 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Participation to meetings, contribution with knowledge on how use models to integrate observations of the marine carbonate systems, provide model simulations
Collaborator Contribution Provide background knowledge and data on ocean acidification in the north East Atlantic
Impact the collaboration is highly interdisciplinary involving chemical and biological oceanographers, modellers, earth observation scientists as well as stakeholders. The collaboration just started (kick off meeting on 12th-13th March) therefore no concrete output yet
Start Year 2018
 
Description GOA-ON NE Atlantic HUB 
Organisation Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres
Department Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
Country Germany 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Participation to meetings, contribution with knowledge on how use models to integrate observations of the marine carbonate systems, provide model simulations
Collaborator Contribution Provide background knowledge and data on ocean acidification in the north East Atlantic
Impact the collaboration is highly interdisciplinary involving chemical and biological oceanographers, modellers, earth observation scientists as well as stakeholders. The collaboration just started (kick off meeting on 12th-13th March) therefore no concrete output yet
Start Year 2018
 
Description GOA-ON NE Atlantic HUB 
Organisation Marine Biological Association
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Participation to meetings, contribution with knowledge on how use models to integrate observations of the marine carbonate systems, provide model simulations
Collaborator Contribution Provide background knowledge and data on ocean acidification in the north East Atlantic
Impact the collaboration is highly interdisciplinary involving chemical and biological oceanographers, modellers, earth observation scientists as well as stakeholders. The collaboration just started (kick off meeting on 12th-13th March) therefore no concrete output yet
Start Year 2018
 
Description GOA-ON NE Atlantic HUB 
Organisation National Oceanography Centre
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Participation to meetings, contribution with knowledge on how use models to integrate observations of the marine carbonate systems, provide model simulations
Collaborator Contribution Provide background knowledge and data on ocean acidification in the north East Atlantic
Impact the collaboration is highly interdisciplinary involving chemical and biological oceanographers, modellers, earth observation scientists as well as stakeholders. The collaboration just started (kick off meeting on 12th-13th March) therefore no concrete output yet
Start Year 2018
 
Description GOA-ON NE Atlantic HUB 
Organisation University of East Anglia
Department School of Environmental Sciences UEA
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Participation to meetings, contribution with knowledge on how use models to integrate observations of the marine carbonate systems, provide model simulations
Collaborator Contribution Provide background knowledge and data on ocean acidification in the north East Atlantic
Impact the collaboration is highly interdisciplinary involving chemical and biological oceanographers, modellers, earth observation scientists as well as stakeholders. The collaboration just started (kick off meeting on 12th-13th March) therefore no concrete output yet
Start Year 2018
 
Description GOA-ON NE Atlantic HUB 
Organisation University of Edinburgh
Department School of Geosciences Edinburgh
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Participation to meetings, contribution with knowledge on how use models to integrate observations of the marine carbonate systems, provide model simulations
Collaborator Contribution Provide background knowledge and data on ocean acidification in the north East Atlantic
Impact the collaboration is highly interdisciplinary involving chemical and biological oceanographers, modellers, earth observation scientists as well as stakeholders. The collaboration just started (kick off meeting on 12th-13th March) therefore no concrete output yet
Start Year 2018
 
Description GOA-ON NE Atlantic HUB 
Organisation University of Exeter
Department Department of Geography
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Participation to meetings, contribution with knowledge on how use models to integrate observations of the marine carbonate systems, provide model simulations
Collaborator Contribution Provide background knowledge and data on ocean acidification in the north East Atlantic
Impact the collaboration is highly interdisciplinary involving chemical and biological oceanographers, modellers, earth observation scientists as well as stakeholders. The collaboration just started (kick off meeting on 12th-13th March) therefore no concrete output yet
Start Year 2018
 
Description GOA-ON NE Atlantic HUB 
Organisation University of Glasgow
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Participation to meetings, contribution with knowledge on how use models to integrate observations of the marine carbonate systems, provide model simulations
Collaborator Contribution Provide background knowledge and data on ocean acidification in the north East Atlantic
Impact the collaboration is highly interdisciplinary involving chemical and biological oceanographers, modellers, earth observation scientists as well as stakeholders. The collaboration just started (kick off meeting on 12th-13th March) therefore no concrete output yet
Start Year 2018
 
Description GOA-ON NE Atlantic HUB 
Organisation University of Gothenburg
Country Sweden 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Participation to meetings, contribution with knowledge on how use models to integrate observations of the marine carbonate systems, provide model simulations
Collaborator Contribution Provide background knowledge and data on ocean acidification in the north East Atlantic
Impact the collaboration is highly interdisciplinary involving chemical and biological oceanographers, modellers, earth observation scientists as well as stakeholders. The collaboration just started (kick off meeting on 12th-13th March) therefore no concrete output yet
Start Year 2018
 
Description GOA-ON NE Atlantic HUB 
Organisation University of Liverpool
Department Department of Earth, Ocean and Ecological Sciences
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Participation to meetings, contribution with knowledge on how use models to integrate observations of the marine carbonate systems, provide model simulations
Collaborator Contribution Provide background knowledge and data on ocean acidification in the north East Atlantic
Impact the collaboration is highly interdisciplinary involving chemical and biological oceanographers, modellers, earth observation scientists as well as stakeholders. The collaboration just started (kick off meeting on 12th-13th March) therefore no concrete output yet
Start Year 2018
 
Description GOA-ON NE Atlantic HUB 
Organisation University of Plymouth
Department School of Biological Sciences and Marine Sciences
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Participation to meetings, contribution with knowledge on how use models to integrate observations of the marine carbonate systems, provide model simulations
Collaborator Contribution Provide background knowledge and data on ocean acidification in the north East Atlantic
Impact the collaboration is highly interdisciplinary involving chemical and biological oceanographers, modellers, earth observation scientists as well as stakeholders. The collaboration just started (kick off meeting on 12th-13th March) therefore no concrete output yet
Start Year 2018
 
Description GOA-ON NE Atlantic HUB 
Organisation University of Southampton
Department Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Participation to meetings, contribution with knowledge on how use models to integrate observations of the marine carbonate systems, provide model simulations
Collaborator Contribution Provide background knowledge and data on ocean acidification in the north East Atlantic
Impact the collaboration is highly interdisciplinary involving chemical and biological oceanographers, modellers, earth observation scientists as well as stakeholders. The collaboration just started (kick off meeting on 12th-13th March) therefore no concrete output yet
Start Year 2018
 
Description National Partnership for Ocean Prediction - NPOP 
Organisation Centre For Environment, Fisheries And Aquaculture Science
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution I lead the ecosystem models Action Group
Collaborator Contribution the partnership has the aim to promote the use of operational oceanography for marine and maritime policy, management and industries
Impact the partnership organised workshops, conferences and meeting with stakeholders. It is multidisciplnary, involving physical and biological oceanographer, ecosystem modeller, remote sensing scientists and data assimilation scientists
Start Year 2016
 
Description National Partnership for Ocean Prediction - NPOP 
Organisation Meteorological Office UK
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution I lead the ecosystem models Action Group
Collaborator Contribution the partnership has the aim to promote the use of operational oceanography for marine and maritime policy, management and industries
Impact the partnership organised workshops, conferences and meeting with stakeholders. It is multidisciplnary, involving physical and biological oceanographer, ecosystem modeller, remote sensing scientists and data assimilation scientists
Start Year 2016
 
Description National Partnership for Ocean Prediction - NPOP 
Organisation National Oceanography Centre
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution I lead the ecosystem models Action Group
Collaborator Contribution the partnership has the aim to promote the use of operational oceanography for marine and maritime policy, management and industries
Impact the partnership organised workshops, conferences and meeting with stakeholders. It is multidisciplnary, involving physical and biological oceanographer, ecosystem modeller, remote sensing scientists and data assimilation scientists
Start Year 2016
 
Description The Physics of the Climate 
Organisation Institute of Physics (IOP)
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Learned Society 
PI Contribution There is a clearly stated need to better understand the Physical mechanisms and drivers of the climate. Dr Bruun has intiated the above collaborations with inter-disciplinary colleagues across the topics od physics, geography and mathematics. Novel ways to better understand the earth system are being developed (manuscript writing) that engage with physics knowledge from other areas of science. The questions in the ReCICLE project help to frame the type of analysis accuracy that is required for assessments of coastal and shelf-sea locations.
Collaborator Contribution The partners represent world leading researchers in their fields. Exeter: Climate dynamics, observational geography, fluid dynamics, mathematics and statistics. Lancaster: Non-linear dynamical systems, identification methods and signal analysis capability. Greece: Theoretical physics. Together this collective are building a strong and informed group of academics who are helping to inform our contemporary understanding of the Physics of the Climate.
Impact 3 Journal publications (JGROceans x2 and J of Plankton Research). Multidisciplinary (Physics, biology, mathematics). 7 Conference presentations (6 oral, 1 poster): EVAN 2017, CliMathnet (2017, 2018), AGU Ocean Sciences 2018, EGU (2018, 2019 x2 ). Multidisciplinary: Physics, statistics, mathematics, communication, education and outreach.
Start Year 2017
 
Description The Physics of the Climate 
Organisation Lancaster University
Department Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution There is a clearly stated need to better understand the Physical mechanisms and drivers of the climate. Dr Bruun has intiated the above collaborations with inter-disciplinary colleagues across the topics od physics, geography and mathematics. Novel ways to better understand the earth system are being developed (manuscript writing) that engage with physics knowledge from other areas of science. The questions in the ReCICLE project help to frame the type of analysis accuracy that is required for assessments of coastal and shelf-sea locations.
Collaborator Contribution The partners represent world leading researchers in their fields. Exeter: Climate dynamics, observational geography, fluid dynamics, mathematics and statistics. Lancaster: Non-linear dynamical systems, identification methods and signal analysis capability. Greece: Theoretical physics. Together this collective are building a strong and informed group of academics who are helping to inform our contemporary understanding of the Physics of the Climate.
Impact 3 Journal publications (JGROceans x2 and J of Plankton Research). Multidisciplinary (Physics, biology, mathematics). 7 Conference presentations (6 oral, 1 poster): EVAN 2017, CliMathnet (2017, 2018), AGU Ocean Sciences 2018, EGU (2018, 2019 x2 ). Multidisciplinary: Physics, statistics, mathematics, communication, education and outreach.
Start Year 2017
 
Description The Physics of the Climate 
Organisation Lancaster University
Department Lancaster Environment Centre
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution There is a clearly stated need to better understand the Physical mechanisms and drivers of the climate. Dr Bruun has intiated the above collaborations with inter-disciplinary colleagues across the topics od physics, geography and mathematics. Novel ways to better understand the earth system are being developed (manuscript writing) that engage with physics knowledge from other areas of science. The questions in the ReCICLE project help to frame the type of analysis accuracy that is required for assessments of coastal and shelf-sea locations.
Collaborator Contribution The partners represent world leading researchers in their fields. Exeter: Climate dynamics, observational geography, fluid dynamics, mathematics and statistics. Lancaster: Non-linear dynamical systems, identification methods and signal analysis capability. Greece: Theoretical physics. Together this collective are building a strong and informed group of academics who are helping to inform our contemporary understanding of the Physics of the Climate.
Impact 3 Journal publications (JGROceans x2 and J of Plankton Research). Multidisciplinary (Physics, biology, mathematics). 7 Conference presentations (6 oral, 1 poster): EVAN 2017, CliMathnet (2017, 2018), AGU Ocean Sciences 2018, EGU (2018, 2019 x2 ). Multidisciplinary: Physics, statistics, mathematics, communication, education and outreach.
Start Year 2017
 
Description The Physics of the Climate 
Organisation University of Exeter
Department College of Engineering, Mathematics & Physical Sciences
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution There is a clearly stated need to better understand the Physical mechanisms and drivers of the climate. Dr Bruun has intiated the above collaborations with inter-disciplinary colleagues across the topics od physics, geography and mathematics. Novel ways to better understand the earth system are being developed (manuscript writing) that engage with physics knowledge from other areas of science. The questions in the ReCICLE project help to frame the type of analysis accuracy that is required for assessments of coastal and shelf-sea locations.
Collaborator Contribution The partners represent world leading researchers in their fields. Exeter: Climate dynamics, observational geography, fluid dynamics, mathematics and statistics. Lancaster: Non-linear dynamical systems, identification methods and signal analysis capability. Greece: Theoretical physics. Together this collective are building a strong and informed group of academics who are helping to inform our contemporary understanding of the Physics of the Climate.
Impact 3 Journal publications (JGROceans x2 and J of Plankton Research). Multidisciplinary (Physics, biology, mathematics). 7 Conference presentations (6 oral, 1 poster): EVAN 2017, CliMathnet (2017, 2018), AGU Ocean Sciences 2018, EGU (2018, 2019 x2 ). Multidisciplinary: Physics, statistics, mathematics, communication, education and outreach.
Start Year 2017
 
Description The Physics of the Climate 
Organisation University of Exeter
Department College of Life and Environmental Sciences
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution There is a clearly stated need to better understand the Physical mechanisms and drivers of the climate. Dr Bruun has intiated the above collaborations with inter-disciplinary colleagues across the topics od physics, geography and mathematics. Novel ways to better understand the earth system are being developed (manuscript writing) that engage with physics knowledge from other areas of science. The questions in the ReCICLE project help to frame the type of analysis accuracy that is required for assessments of coastal and shelf-sea locations.
Collaborator Contribution The partners represent world leading researchers in their fields. Exeter: Climate dynamics, observational geography, fluid dynamics, mathematics and statistics. Lancaster: Non-linear dynamical systems, identification methods and signal analysis capability. Greece: Theoretical physics. Together this collective are building a strong and informed group of academics who are helping to inform our contemporary understanding of the Physics of the Climate.
Impact 3 Journal publications (JGROceans x2 and J of Plankton Research). Multidisciplinary (Physics, biology, mathematics). 7 Conference presentations (6 oral, 1 poster): EVAN 2017, CliMathnet (2017, 2018), AGU Ocean Sciences 2018, EGU (2018, 2019 x2 ). Multidisciplinary: Physics, statistics, mathematics, communication, education and outreach.
Start Year 2017
 
Description The Physics of the Climate 
Organisation University of Ioannina
Department Department of Physics
Country Greece 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution There is a clearly stated need to better understand the Physical mechanisms and drivers of the climate. Dr Bruun has intiated the above collaborations with inter-disciplinary colleagues across the topics od physics, geography and mathematics. Novel ways to better understand the earth system are being developed (manuscript writing) that engage with physics knowledge from other areas of science. The questions in the ReCICLE project help to frame the type of analysis accuracy that is required for assessments of coastal and shelf-sea locations.
Collaborator Contribution The partners represent world leading researchers in their fields. Exeter: Climate dynamics, observational geography, fluid dynamics, mathematics and statistics. Lancaster: Non-linear dynamical systems, identification methods and signal analysis capability. Greece: Theoretical physics. Together this collective are building a strong and informed group of academics who are helping to inform our contemporary understanding of the Physics of the Climate.
Impact 3 Journal publications (JGROceans x2 and J of Plankton Research). Multidisciplinary (Physics, biology, mathematics). 7 Conference presentations (6 oral, 1 poster): EVAN 2017, CliMathnet (2017, 2018), AGU Ocean Sciences 2018, EGU (2018, 2019 x2 ). Multidisciplinary: Physics, statistics, mathematics, communication, education and outreach.
Start Year 2017
 
Description 3rd Carbon from Space Workshop Exeter Jan 2016 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact To explore mechanisms for implementation of the CEOS and GEO recommendations, in collaboration with the Global Carbon Project, the European Space Agency (ESA) is convening the 3rd Carbon form Space workshop bringing together the EO, climate and Earth system science communities addressing the carbon cycle to define a concrete work plan of research and development activities to guide ESA and other space agencies and institutions to respond to the requirements for observations and their exploitation in the time frame 2017-2021.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.copernicus.eu/events/3rd-carbon-space-workshop
 
Description Atlantic Fora 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact Atlantic Fora are a research discussion place where internal cross-disciplinary research audience can share latest news, research ideas and ask for advice. It is open to all across the PML lab with input from other Plymouth research teams that form the Western Channel Observatory.

In 2016 this meets monthy. 2003 - 2015 it has been seasonal with typically 4 per year.

The fora has helped informal discussion of research ideas, also a 'town hall' type meeting on occasions to allow senior members to share latest.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012,2013,2014,2015,2016
 
Description Atlantic Fora with WCO and Atlantic themes 2016 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact In 2016 we hosted 11 regular fora meetings, balanced between Western Channel Observatory and Atlantic themes. The format is open discussion and sharing of latest work and research with contributed discussion slides, discussion and debate.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Climate dynamics analysis community: LWEC (CliMathNet, RECoVER, PEN) Jan 2018 meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Debated the positives and areas for development of the current 'state-of-the-art' for physical and mathematical analysis of climate systems. I was invited to chair one of the presentation sessions. The contribution that the UK's science base makes in this area was noted to be internationally leading edge and as such this asset should continue to be endorsed and supported in the agile research culture of the future. Suggested areas to further develop are to enhance are linkage of different 'dialects' of mathematics, physics and statistics based on recognised phenomena.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Coffee cup science 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Coffee cup science is a regular meeting opportunity for all at PML to share and debate latest. Six are scheduled for 2017
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Discussion of climate analysis strategies 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I joined the CliMathNet (EPSRC funded network) in 2017. As part of this I participated in a debate on themes for the direction of analytical climate research.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Extreme value analysis network 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I contributed to the debate in this critical infrastructure academic and industrial community. One strategic gap that I articulated in my presentation was the need to more formally include the physics of climate dynamics into our statistical theories that evaluate risk of extreme values (e.g. coastal flooding, rainfall, temperature). A manuscript on this has been submitted for consideration in the EVAN special issue 'Natural Hazards' journal, which updates my extreme value work (Bruun and Tawn, 1998) that is now embedded into the environment agencies coastal flooding assessment policy approach.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017,2018
 
Description Modelling leadership : Computational and Data Challenges in Environmental Modelling 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presented Climatic influence on the phytoplankton ecosystem, Bruun et al. (Computational and Data Challenges in Environmental Modelling) held at Isaac Newton Institute, Cambridge, 10th Feb 2016.

Helpful network meeting, mix of mathematical, applied and commercial groups.
Partners in this: Isaac Newton Institute, Turing Gateway to Mathematics, NERC, Smith institute, PURE network, Institute of Physics.

I sat on the wrap-up panel in this meeting to help summarise the main proactive challenges in this field which I summarised as:
1. Mapping of mathematical techniques to engage with non-mathematical applied audience / collaborators
2. How to create an awareness in the distinction of a) observed data, b) simulated data and c) theoretical knowledge.
3. How to analyse and share this hybrid knowledge?
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description PML Light Bites 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact PML Light bites has become an annual event - where all members of PML are welcome and can share latest.

Designed around the concept of 'Elevator-pitch' type talks - each person who shares has ~5 minutes to unpack their contribution.
Audience participation / discussion is encouraged.

The last three years the PML board of trustees have attended and participated so providing a way to help integrate their experience within PML.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013,2014,2015
 
Description PML Light Bites 2016 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Annual PML Light Bites is an opportunity for all staff and the board to listen to light bite talks of PML science and interact and share.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description PML Poster session 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact PML Poster session : held annually.

Provides a natural way for our cross-disciplinary groups to show and tell.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013,2014,2015
 
Description PML Poster session 2016 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Annual internal poster session to promote intergroup development of new ideas and potential collaborations. Attended by PML board which gives opportunity for PML group foucs.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016