Climate science into the BoardRoom (CIBR)

Lead Research Organisation: London School of Economics & Pol Sci
Department Name: Centre for the Analysis of Time Series

Abstract

The aim of this project is to visualise information from climate change models so that it can be displayed on an internet "game" called the the 2050 Global Calculator. The aim of the Global Calculator is to energise and inform discussion about energy and climate choices in the lead-up to the UNFCCC climate negotiations in Paris in 2015. The Global Calculator lets you make decisions about the energy system in 2050: should we use lots of nuclear power, or insulate our houses, or become vegetarian? The impact of these choices is then shown in terms of carbon emissions and the effect on the global climate. In the early stages of constructing the Global Calculator, we have already learnt a lot about the different expectations of climate scientists and of policy-makers from the Department for Energy and Climate Change. The target audience for the web tool is businesspeople, who will probably have different expectations again. So what we want to do is to use the Global Calculator to demonstrate those differences, and work towards finding a system that will help all of us to communicate better. That means helping climate scientists design experiments that give answers that are directly relevant for real-world decisions, and helping decision-makers to understand the limits of climate information, so they don't ask for the impossible. Providing a forum for feedback and constructive discussion, by starting this conversation around the Global Calculator, will improve the use of climate information in business and policy.

Publications

10 25 50

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Hazeleger W (2015) Tales of future weather in Nature Climate Change

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Thompson E (2019) Escape from model-land in Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal

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Thompson Erica (2016) Expert Judgment for Climate Change Adaptation in PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE

 
Description The key findings are nuanced but essentially centre around the observation that there cannot be a one-size-fits-all approach to climate information provision. Different decision-makers are interested in different aspects of future climate change: for example, the construction industry may be interested in extreme weather in a given place, agricultural stakeholders may be interested in average weather and length of growing seasons, healthcare providers may be interested in threshold events, reinsurance providers must understand the "1-in-200 event" and the nuclear regulation industry are interested in minimising risk at the level of 1 in 10,000. The properties of the climate projections currently made available are not suitable for use with this wide range of requirements, because of the reliance on ad hoc expert judgement to quantify the influence of model inadequacy.
Exploitation Route We expect these findings to be taken forward within the companies and to inform their use and choice of climate information in making business decisions such as infrastructure investment and longer-term strategies for minimising risk exposure. We hope that our summary briefings will also bring this information to a wider audience of stakeholders with whom we do not already have links.
We have developed stronger connections with the insurance industry as a result of this project and are pursuing further joint projects aimed at clarifying the appropriate use of climate information and getting the most out of the information that is available.
Sectors Agriculture, Food and Drink,Construction,Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare,Manufacturing, including Industrial Biotechology,Retail,Security and Diplomacy,Transport

URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/CATS/Resources/CATS-Briefings.aspx
 
Description We hosted a discussion meeting with invited representatives of various sectors, on the topic of "evidence based decision making in a new climate". There was a high level of engagement and interest of delegates in particular from National Grid, Lloyds, Transfaction, Public Health England, Department of Health, OASIS Loss Modelling Framework, Thames Water, Office for Nuclear Regulation, and the NHS Sustainable Development Unit. All of the participants expressed an interest in continuing the discussion and contributing to further outputs such as joint papers, fact sheets, and videos. We are not aware of any explicit direct "use" of the material discussed, however, comments afterwards included " []invaluable [] to understand the challenges faced in business but also seeing the leading edge of scientific research and how the two combine to impact decision making" and we expect that the general discussion will have informed participants' subsequent use of scientific information. We also canvassed participants for topics for short briefings they would be most interested in, and as a result have produced a series of short briefings and a video summary of the workshop.
First Year Of Impact 2016
Sector Agriculture, Food and Drink,Construction,Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare,Manufacturing, including Industrial Biotechology,Retail,Security and Diplomacy,Transport
Impact Types Economic,Policy & public services

 
Description ACCCP Capitol Hill Climate Science Day
Geographic Reach North America 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
URL https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/policy/get-involved/participate-in-a-congressional-visits-day/...
 
Description Briefing report: Implications of expert assessment of climate model (in)adequacy
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/CATS/Resources/CATS-Briefings.aspx
 
Description Briefing report: Insights about uncertainty in the Global Calculator
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/CATS/Resources/CATS-Briefings.aspx
 
Description Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Amount £329,042 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/P016847/1 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2017 
End 12/2018
 
Description H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage. Topic: SC5-16-2014
Amount € 248,461 (EUR)
Funding ID EP-210185204 
Organisation European Commission 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 06/2015 
End 05/2019
 
Description HEIF5 bid fund (via LSE)
Amount £50,600 (GBP)
Funding ID 1-RAT-3996 
Organisation Higher Education Innovation Funding (HEIF) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 02/2017 
End 06/2018
 
Description HEIF5 bid fund (via LSE)
Amount £23,861 (GBP)
Funding ID 1-RAT-3993 
Organisation Higher Education Innovation Funding (HEIF) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2017 
End 03/2018
 
Description LSE Impact Acceleration Fund
Amount £18,628 (GBP)
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2016 
End 06/2016
 
Description ReCover pilot studies
Amount £23,814 (GBP)
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2016 
End 07/2016
 
Description Winton 
Organisation Winton Capital Management
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution CATS (Smith and Stainforth) have contributed to discussions of creating a Climate Prediction Market. Two events on this topic have been held so far - October 2016 and January 2017
Collaborator Contribution As per above
Impact none as yet
Start Year 2016
 
Description Climate SCience Day on Capitol Hill 2015 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Discussions with congressmen as part of the ASA 5th Climate Science Day on Capitol Hill
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://magazine.amstat.org/blog/2015/04/01/climate-science-day-2/
 
Description Climate Science Day on Capitol Hill 2016 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Meetings with congressmen as part of the ASA Advisory Committee on Climate Change Policy (ACCCP) 6th Annual Climate Science Day 2016 meeting, Capitol Hill, Washington DC.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL https://www2.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/policy/get-involved/participate-in-a-congressional-visits-day...
 
Description Evidence-based decision making in a new climate 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact A workshop to discuss with industry/business personnel how their business uses the latest scientific information to keep ahead of a changing climate; how they make decisions based on that information; and how could it be better tailored for their purposes. This workshop, based around the example of DECC's 2050 Global Calculator, was an opportunity both to share best practice and to feedback experiences, with the aim of improving the relevance of future scientific work for business needs. (A second workshop the following month then discussed the industry feedback with scientists working in this area.)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/CATS/Events/workshops/Evidence-based-decision-making-in-a-new-climate.aspx
 
Description LSE Works talk 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact A talk given as part of the 'LSE Works' series which aims to showcase the research of LSE faculty in an accessible manner. The talk, entitled 'Coping with Deep Uncertainty: jellyfish, super-storms and nuclear stewardship' was delivered to an audience: approximately 200 people - a mix of academic, industry/business and general public. One of the discussants was a member of industry.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/Events/2017/03/20170315t1830vHKT/Coping-with-Deep-Uncertainty
 
Description Research Showcase (LSE) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact Presented our work at an interactive stall in the LSE's Research Showcase. A couple of hundred people attended, mainly undergraduate LSE students. Two contacted us afterwards to ask about other research and the possibility of getting involved.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/CATS/Research-Showcase