Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events (SMURPHS)

Lead Research Organisation: University of Reading
Department Name: Meteorology

Abstract

Climate is currently changing mostly because of additional greenhouse gases, emitted through human activity, which are heating up the planet. Since future warming of climate is likely to cause damage to societies, governments are coordinating efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avoid these damaging consequences. However, despite the continuing rises in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the rate of warming of the Earth's surface has declined somewhat since the 1990s. While it is tempting to find a simple reason for this slowing (or "hiatus") in global surface warming, the climate system is extremely complex and there are many factors which can explain the lumps and bumps in the surface temperature record which also include increases (or "surges") in the rate of warming. The goal of our proposed programme of research is to understand much more fully how all the contributing factors can explain past hiatus and surge (H/S) events and this will ultimately help improve predictions of future climate change over the coming decades and far into the future.

The potential causes of H/S events includes: natural (so-called unforced) climate variability, due to complex interplay between the atmosphere, oceans and land; natural climate change due to volcanic eruptions or changes in the brightness of the sun; changes in how heat is moved into the deep oceans due to natural variations or human-caused factors; changes in emissions of gases such as methane due to human activity; limitations in the distribution of temperature observations, such that the hiatus is partly an artefact of imperfect observations. Rather than one single cause it is likely that H/S events are caused by a combination of factors. This is why a large team with a broad range of expertise is required to evaluate the different processes together. Our project, Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events (SMURPHS) has brought together a comprehensive community of researchers from 9 UK institutes supported by 5 project partners including the Met Office who are experts in the atmosphere, the oceans and the land surface.

SMURPHS has 3 broad objectives, achieved through 6 research themes, which exploit theory, observations and detailed computer modelling. Objective 1 is to build a basic framework for interpreting H/S events in terms of energy moving between the atmosphere and ocean and to determine characteristics of and similarities between H/S events. Objective 2 is to understand mechanisms that could trigger H/S events and extend their length, considering both human and natural factors. Objective 3 is to assess whether H/S events can be predicted and what information is needed for near-term prediction of climate over coming decades which is important for how societies adapt to change. To meet these objectives scientists from a range of different disciplines will work on each of these possibilities and communicate their findings across the team. SMURPHS will produce a wide-ranging synthesis of its results.

SMURPHS will have many beneficiaries. Beyond the global scientific community, improved understanding of H/S events is important at national and international levels for designing policies to control future greenhouse gas emissions and for effective adaptation to climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments have deeply influenced climate policy development at the international and national levels. Scientists involved in SMURPHS have contributed significantly to previous IPCC reports, and SMURPHS science and scientists would contribute significantly to future such assessments.

Planned Impact

1. The World Climate Research Program (WCRP) 6th Climate Model Intercomparison (CMIP6) Committee, participating climate research centres, and the international research community will benefit from new radiative forcing scenarios with quantified uncertainties promoted through WCRP/CMIP6 planning meetings. SMURPHS will contribute directly to the CMIP6 plans and host relevant meetings during the project. The SMURPHS webpage will provide the latest information to the international modelling centres and a contact list will be drawn up for provision of regular notifications.
2. International policy makers representing governments in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations; National policy makers in the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and the Committee for Climate Change (CCC) and European Union counterparts; and International and national non-governmental organisations (NGOs) will benefit from improved understanding of decadal variability in global mean surface temperature rise and of the relationship between short term and longer term trends.
Two critical issues for these groups are: (i) implications of the recent hiatus for long term climate change (mitigation policy), and (ii) constraints on the rate of climate change over the next few decades (adaptation policy). We will organize two international workshops to synthesize research findings and bring together additional international perspectives to provide an overall assessment. Key outputs will be two assessment papers for input to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC (AR6). Lack of complete understanding of the hiatus was a major gap in IPCC AR5, which SMURPHS will address directly. As part of these workshops, a discussion session will be held with invited policymakers from DECC and other government departments to explore the implications of our findings. We also plan to hold a side event on historic temperature trends at a UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (expected in December 2017).
3. The Met Office (MO) has strategic plans to improve near term prediction of climate change and with DECC/DEFRA and CCC will produce revised mitigation pathways to avoid dangerous climate change. The MO will benefit from improved quantification of past radiative forcing and understanding of variability in global-mean surface temperature rise, resulting in improved models and predictions. A close working relationship with the MO is established and a coordinated programme of work has been designed. MO colleagues will attend project meetings and SMURPHS PDRAs will spend time based at the MO. The Met Office Academic Partnership involving the Universities of Exeter, Leeds, Oxford and Reading provides an additional mechanism for collaboration.
4. The general public and the media. SMURPHS will benefit the interested public by enabling clearer and more precise explanations of the hiatus and implications for long-term climate change. Several media articles used poor understanding of the hiatus to challenge the Government's emission reduction targets in 2013. In response the Science Media Centre (SMC) prepared a briefing note on the hiatus with significant contributions from Forster, Sutton, Allan and Hawkins. We will work with the SMC to update this briefing note at the end of the project, and will discuss holding a briefing meeting for interested journalists. Shine is very active in ongoing Royal Society efforts to explain climate change science to a wide audience via a number of activities, and expects to continue to be so during SMURPHS. Outputs from the project will be written up in a form that is accessible for the interested general public on Hawkins' climate-lab-book blog which also provides a mechanism for public engagement and feedback. Key findings will be communicated on Twitter. All PIs and Co-Is have press experience and engagement with the media will continue throughout the project.

Publications

10 25 50

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Allan R (2020) Advances in understanding largescale responses of the water cycle to climate change in Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

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Allan R (2017) Decadal climate variability and the global energy balance in Past Global Changes Magazine

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Allan Richard P. (2017) Elusive origin of warming slowdown in NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE

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Bethke I (2017) Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability in Nature Climate Change

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Blunden J (2017) State of the Climate in 2016 in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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Blunden J (2019) State of the Climate in 2018 in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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Blunden J (2017) State of the Climate in 2016 in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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Cassou C (2018) Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenges and Opportunities in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

 
Description 1) Work highlighted a larger than expected role of changes in the greenhouse effect of methane, low-level ozone and ozone-damaging CFCs, in explaining slower rates of surface warming during the early 2000s.

2) An important update to the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases was developed, indicating a potentially larger role for methane in future climate change.

3) We contributed to work exploiting global warming potential calculations to better compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

4) An improved method to estimate and monitor energy flux into the sea surface was developed and exploited in understanding how ocean heat content depends on ocean currents and energy flows from the atmosphere.

5) An important international collaboration culminated in a high impact paper outlining the best definition of the pre-industrial reference period from which to estimate global surface temperature changes which is of importance in assessing mitigation targets as was demonstrated in a further high impact publication

6) A graphic depicting global warming with each month like the hour around a clock face, commonly referred to as the "climate spiral" was developed and widely used in social media, mainstream media and was viewed by over 1 billion people at the 2016 Olympic opening ceremony and the team member responsible was awarded an MBE for this and other contributions to climate communication

7) New calculations show heating from ozone pollution from 1850 to the 2000s that is 80% higher than previous estimations with improved representation of multi-decadal changes

8) Combining satellite data with models indicates that aerosol particles make clouds brighter as expected but do not substantially increase the amount of water which implies that some climate simulations may overestimate the cooling effect of these particles on climate. A large ensemble of model simulations with varying aerosol radiative forcings has been developed to investigate the impact of aerosol uncertainty on historical climate change.

9) Pioneering work has shown that by developing a more realistic future scenario including volcanic eruptions that climate variability on annual-to-decadal timescales is increased

10) Through advances in simulations and observations, work has improved agreement and understanding of how temperature high up in the atmosphere has changed and varied over the past 3-4 decades and indicates that deficiencies in radiative forcing as well as unpredictable ocean fluctuations can explain discrepancies in the early 21st century

11) The role of atmospheric absorption of sunlight by aerosols in determining dimming then brightening at the surface over Europe and China was discovered with implications for decadal changes in climate and the hydrological cycle

12) It was shown that state of the art CMIP6 climate simulations are able to capture but in some cases underestimate amplification of climate change response by low altitude clouds in the east Pacific during the 2015/16 El Nino suggesting that climate models may underestimate climate variability and change.
Exploitation Route Continued dissemination and continued collaboration to identify future projects to extend understanding of decadal climate variability and change. Many members of the SMURPHS team are contributing to the IPCC AR6 report in which project outcomes are making an impact.
Sectors Chemicals,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Energy,Environment

URL http://www.smurphs.leeds.ac.uk/
 
Description A climate spiral developed to depict global warming has been widely used across social media and mainstream media in communicating climate science (Co-I Hawkins). Co-Is Shine, Hawkins, Hegerl, Sutton and Gregory contributed to the Royal Society report "Climate updates: progress since the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC": https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2017/27-11-2017-Climate-change-updates-report.pdf The project findings are contributing important evidence for the IPCC AR6 report to which team members are contributing.
First Year Of Impact 2015
Sector Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice,Culture, Heritage, Museums and Collections
Impact Types Societal,Policy & public services

 
Description Invited participant in the scoping meeting to plan the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (May 2017, Addis Ababa)
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has played a critical role in advising the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the most recent outcome of which was the Paris Agreement which is the most serious attempt yet achieved to tackle climate change.
URL http://www.ipcc.ch
 
Description Invited roundtable discussion on climate change and national security at Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies at Cabinet Offices, London
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Impact on policymakers interested in the effects of climate change on national security issues.
 
Title DEEP-C top of atmosphere and surface energy fluxes 1985-2016 
Description In order to study which mechanisms explain the reduced global surface warming rate since around 2000, and where the excess energy is due to rising greenhouse gas, the radiation fluxes (OLR, ASR and NET) at the top of atmosphere (TOA) prior to the CERES period are reconstructed using satellite observations, atmospheric reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and AMIP5 model simulations. The new approach using the mass-corrected atmospheric energy divergencies (transports) from ERA-Interim is employed to estimate the net surface energy fluxes. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2017 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Use of data in multiple publications. 
URL http://researchdata.reading.ac.uk/111/
 
Title SMURPHS Large Ensemble 
Description Ensemble of simulations with HadGEM3 for the historical period with a range of anthropogenic aerosol emissions 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2020 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Several collaborative papers 
 
Description Collaboration with Met Office Hadley Centre and Global Numerical Weather Prediction Model 
Organisation Meteorological Office UK
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Ongoing collaboration on publications and model development in the area of the global energy and water cycles
Collaborator Contribution Met Office partners have provided climate and NWP model data, expertise and research outcomes.
Impact Multiple research outputs, advances in model development and policy-relevant advice
 
Description North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) 
Organisation British Antarctic Survey
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) is a 5 year research programme led by NCAS (PI Rowan Sutton) and also involving: NOC, BAS, NCEO, PML, CPOM and the Met Office.
Collaborator Contribution Details at www.acsis.ac.uk and https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1
Impact https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1
Start Year 2016
 
Description North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) 
Organisation Meteorological Office UK
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) is a 5 year research programme led by NCAS (PI Rowan Sutton) and also involving: NOC, BAS, NCEO, PML, CPOM and the Met Office.
Collaborator Contribution Details at www.acsis.ac.uk and https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1
Impact https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1
Start Year 2016
 
Description North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) 
Organisation National Centre for Earth Observation
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) is a 5 year research programme led by NCAS (PI Rowan Sutton) and also involving: NOC, BAS, NCEO, PML, CPOM and the Met Office.
Collaborator Contribution Details at www.acsis.ac.uk and https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1
Impact https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1
Start Year 2016
 
Description North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) 
Organisation National Oceanography Centre
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) is a 5 year research programme led by NCAS (PI Rowan Sutton) and also involving: NOC, BAS, NCEO, PML, CPOM and the Met Office.
Collaborator Contribution Details at www.acsis.ac.uk and https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1
Impact https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1
Start Year 2016
 
Description North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) 
Organisation Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) is a 5 year research programme led by NCAS (PI Rowan Sutton) and also involving: NOC, BAS, NCEO, PML, CPOM and the Met Office.
Collaborator Contribution Details at www.acsis.ac.uk and https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1
Impact https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1
Start Year 2016
 
Description University of Leeds (project partner) 
Organisation University of Leeds
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaboration on project meetings, research and media activities.
Collaborator Contribution Collaboration on project meetings, research and media activities.
Impact Many since initial workshop at Chicheley Hall with ongoing policy-relevant outputs.
Start Year 2014
 
Description 2016/04 - BLOG - Energy flows, rainfall patterns and climate 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Blog detailing paper deminstrating links between inter-hemispheric differences in the Earth's energy budget and rainfall pattern biases in climate models. Some further discussion suggested changing views of practitioners and students.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://blogs.reading.ac.uk/weather-and-climate-at-reading/2016/energy-flows-rainfall-patterns-and-cl...
 
Description 2016/04 - MEDIA Science Media Centre comment on recent work comparing hydroclimate proxy data with simulations 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Science Media Centre comment on recent work comparing hydroclimate proxy data with simulations. This did not generate much interest as far as I know.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-northern-hemisphere-hydroclimate-variability/
 
Description 2016/04 OUTREACH Weather and Climate: What is happening? talk to Institute of Agricultural Managment Thames Valley Branch - dinner seminar 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Discussed changes in the weather and climate in relation to agriculture and engaged in discussion with professional practitioners.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description 2016/05 - MEDIA Contributed to Carbon Brief comment on Nature Climate Change paper exploring the climate response if all known fossil fuel reserves were burnt 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Contributed to Carbon Brief comment on Nature Climate Change paper exploring the climate response if all known fossil fuel reserves were burnt. Impacts unknown.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.carbonbrief.org/arctic-could-warm-by-17c-if-all-known-fossil-fuels-are-burned-study-says
 
Description 2016/07 - OUTREACH Study Environmental Physics or Meteorology at the University of Reading, Moving on Day, Farnborough 6th Form College, 5th July 2016 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact Discussed the importance of Earth observation and mathematical modelling in solving Environmental problems and the benefits of studying Environmental Physics. The school reported interest from prospective students.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/TALKS/AllanRP_Farnborough2016.pdf
 
Description 2016/08 - eFM Korea interview about record high global temperatures 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Interview about ongoing heatwave in South Korea with eFM. Gained more Asian twitter followers.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.tbs.seoul.kr/efm/Primetime/
 
Description 2016/11 - Contributed to University of Reading Climate Change MOOC 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Videos, activities and articles were updated and participation on online discussion ensured learning across a variety of expertise. Many participants reported a change in their own views.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL https://www.futurelearn.com/courses/our-changing-climate
 
Description 201610 - I commented at the Science Media Centre on a PNAS paper suggesting a smaller anthropogenic aerosol cooling effect 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact I commented at the Science Media Centre on a PNAS paper suggesting a smaller anthropogenic aerosol cooling effect and this sparked some debate with professional practitioners. This caused my own views to be questioned but stimulated advanced understanding.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-new-study-on-climate-forcing-from-aerosols/
 
Description 201610 - BBC World interview about the recent deal to phase out potent HFC greenhouse gases 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact I provided informed perspective to BBC World news channel about the recent deal to phase out potent HFC greenhouse gases
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/MISC/BBCW101516100319.mp4
 
Description 201610 - Current changes in Earth's surface and top of atmosphere energy balance since 1985, ECMWF workshop on Earth's Radiation Budget, Reading, 18-21st October 2016 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact DEEP-C work was disseminated to an international audience which encouraged debate
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/TALKS/AllanRP_ERB_ECMWF_2016.pdf
 
Description 201611 - contribution to a Channel 4 news piece on record warmth in 2016 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Discussion of the record warmth of 2016 for a general TV audience with some follow-up on twitter and by email.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL https://www.channel4.com/news/2016-set-to-be-warmest-on-record
 
Description 2017/03 MEDIA: Response to comment by new head of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) playing down the role of carbon dioxide in driving climate change. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Response to comment by new head of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) playing down the role of carbon dioxide in driving climate change. This was posted as a press release and picked up by news outlets (e.g. Yahoo, Irish News):
http://www.reading.ac.uk/news-and-events/releases/PR713843.aspx
http://www.irishnews.com/magazine/2017/03/10/news/here-s-what-happened-when-trum
p-s-environmental-chief-said-co2-is-not-a-main-cause-of-global-warming-961123/
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/heres-happened-trumps-environmental-chief-170955431.ht
ml
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.reading.ac.uk/news-and-events/releases/PR713843.aspx
 
Description 201701 - Climate Science from a Climate Scientist, THE JOHN HALL VENICE COURSE 2017, National Gallery, London, January 25th 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact A talk "Climate Science from a Climate Scientist" was presented to a group of gap year students engaged in an enrichment course. The cohort were extremely bright and asked a number of very informed questions and many reported changes in views.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/TALKS/ClimateChange_NationalGallery_AllanRP.pdf
 
Description 201701 - Comments on warmest year globally, curious research on "mild" weather and paper suggesting similar temperatures at last interglacial 125,000 years ago despite 6-9m higher sea level than today (Independent, SMC) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Comments were made to various media outlets on the research indicating 2016 was the warmest year on record globally, some curious research investigating changes in "mild" weather and on a paper suggesting similar temperatures at last interglacial 125,000 years ago despite 6-9m higher sea level than today (Independent, SMC)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/sea-level-rise-global-warming-climate-change-9-metres-study...
 
Description 2019/01 School visit to discuss The Science of Climate Change 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact A presentation and practical demonstrations on the Science of Climate Change to Year 7/8 and teachers.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017,2019
URL http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/TALKS/AllanRP2019Wandsworth.pdf
 
Description Article in The Conversation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article for wide audience on implications of IPCC 1.5 degree C report

Over 22,000 readers reported, republished in many (more than 20) other outlets, including in USA, Australia and India, 122 tweets and 741 facebook shares

Led to several requests for media involvement.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://theconversation.com/ipcc-1-5-report-heres-what-the-climate-science-says-104592
 
Description BLOG 2017/06 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Produced press release and blog relating to Nature paper showing less complex cloud-aerosol climate effects than previously thought.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2017/volcano-reveals/
 
Description BLOG 2018/09 Blog to publicise research on Southern Ocean biases in climate simulations 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Blog outlining new research in which we traced large and long-standing biases in computer simulations of climate, affecting the tempestuous Southern Ocean, to errors in cloud that emerge rapidly within the atmospheric models
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://blogs.reading.ac.uk/weather-and-climate-at-reading/2018/cloud-climate-and-the-roaring-40s/
 
Description Citizen's Climate Assembly 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The UK Government formed a Citizen's Climate Assembly to discuss the priorities for reaching 'net-zero'. I gave evidence to the Assembly.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.climateassembly.uk
 
Description Climate Lab Book blog 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Editor of Climate Lab Book blog which receives around 4000 visits per month

Figures from blog posts have appeared in Mail on Sunday, Economist magazine, US Senate hearing, BBC News at 6, BBC News at 10 & Newsnight, Guardian & numerous online publications
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012,2013,2014,2015,2016
URL http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk
 
Description Climate change is spinning up the global energy and water cycles. 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Departmental blog discussing climate change and the global energy and water cycles including the use of satellite data in testing computer simulations.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL http://blogs.reading.ac.uk/weather-and-climate-at-reading/2019/climate-change-is-spinning-up-the-glo...
 
Description Climate spiral 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact In May 2016 I created a 'climate spiral', showing global temperature changes since 1850. This went 'viral', being shared millions of times on facebook and seen by millions on twitter. It featured in several online and print media outlets. Later in the year, a version of the spiral was used during the opening ceremony of the Rio Olympics, being seen by over 1 billion people.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016,2017
URL http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/spirals
 
Description Co-author of document aimed at policymakers and general public 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Co-authorship of Royal Society document "Keeping global warming to 1.5oC" aimed at policymakers and the general public which helped summarise IPCC report on same subject in UK context

https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/publications/2018/keeping-global-warming-to-1-5-c/
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/publications/2018/keeping-global-warming-to-1-5-c/
 
Description Ed Hawkins' Climate Spiral 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact A novel way of depicting global surface temperature change (and other climate metrics) by year (colour) and month (with months like hours on a clock) was developed, disseminated on social media and broadcast at the Olympic Opening Ceremony and across the world media, even by then president Barack Obama (no use as yet by President Trump).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/spirals/
 
Description General media activities 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Media activity. Full list at URL below.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2009,2010,2011,2012,2013
URL http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~ed/home/outreach.html
 
Description Guardian Live Panel Discussion "The climate emergency: Your questions answered" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact A Question Time style debate about the climate emergency. This involved a brief introduction and answering questions from the audience of around 260 from the general public. This sparked discussion and questions afterwards and the possibility of new collaborations.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://membership.theguardian.com/event/the-climate-emergency-your-questions-answered-85482577691
 
Description MEDIA 19/07 - Interview with New Scientist about amplifying cloud climate feedback study (also reported in Earth.com) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Interview with New Scientist about a study highlighting a possible new amplifying cloud climate feedback associated with cirrus outflow (also reported in Earth.com)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.newscientist.com/article/2209661-climate-change-may-thin-high-altitude-clouds-and-trigge...
 
Description MEDIA 19/07 Interview by Talk Radio on if London's climate will become like Barcelona by 2050 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Interview by Talk Radio on a new study purporting that London's climate will become like Barcelona by 2050
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://mms.tveyes.com/Transcript.asp?StationID=13555&DateTime=7%2F13%2F2019+3%3A03%3A34+AM&Term=Uni...
 
Description MEDIA 19/07 Interview with LBC discussing the July 2019 heatwave also reported in The Telegraph following Science Media Centre quote. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Interview with LBC discussing the July 2019 heatwave in the context of climate change that was also reported in The Telegraph following liaison through the Science Media Centre.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-uk-heatwave/
 
Description MEDIA 19/08 - Is July 2019 the hottest month globally ever recorded? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Science Media Centre quote on the exceptional July 2019 global temperatures in the context of climate change that was picked up by Evening Standard and many regional news outlets
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/july-set-to-be-jointwarmest-month-on-record-and-may-be-the-hot...
 
Description MEDIA 19/09 - University of Reading press release ahead of the New York UN Climate Action Summit 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact University of Reading press release ahead of the New York UN Climate Action Summit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL http://www.reading.ac.uk/news-and-events/releases/PR809880.aspx
 
Description MEDIA 19/10 Participating in a Science media communication workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Participating in a science media communications workshop focusing on climate change
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/working-with-us/for-scientists/intro/
 
Description MEDIA 19/12 - BBC World Service interview on the outcome of COP25 climate meeting on climate policy 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact BBC World Service interview on the outcome of COP25 climate meeting on climate policy which sparked discussion.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://mms.tveyes.com/Transcript.asp?StationID=7195&DateTime=12%2F15%2F2019+1%3A12%3A47+PM&Term=Red...
 
Description MEDIA 19/12 - comments on WMO state of the climate to Science Media Centre/Associated Press 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Science Media Centre comments on WMO Provisional Statement on State of Climate in 2019 (e.g. Associated Press)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-the-provisional-statement-on-the-state-of-the-...
 
Description MEDIA 20/01 - France 24 debate about Australian bushfires and climate change 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact France 24 debate about Australian bushfires and climate change that sparked questions and debate from panel members and audience
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.france24.com/en/20200114-why-is-australia-bruning-bushfires-spark-calls-for-urgent-overh...
 
Description MEDIA 2017/04 - comments on research highlighting statistical pitfalls of comparing global warming trend 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Provided quote to Science Media Centre to help informm the public about new research highlighting statistical pitfalls of comparing global warming trend
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-climate-hiatus-statistics/
 
Description MEDIA 2017/11 - November 7th 2017: Another warm year pump primed extremes: comments in BBC & Times articles 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Comments on how warming from greenhouse gases caused extremes to be worse than they otherwise would have been. These comments were used in BBC & Times articles.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41859288
 
Description MEDIA 2017/12 - December 6th 2017: comments on study indicating low climate senisitivity is less likely 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Comments on Brown and Caldeira study indicating low climate senisitivity is less likely. This was used by the Science Media Centre and distributed to national media.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-research-suggesting-greater-future-global-warmi...
 
Description MEDIA 2018/01 - January 10th 2018: Hudson weather interview on how possible future solar minimum will not make much of a dent in human-caused global warming 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact January 10th 2018: Hudson weather interview on how possible future solar minimum will not make much of a dent in human-caused global warming. This was undertaken to dispel the myth that future changes in the sun will drive climate change and that the "Little Ice Age" was not a real ice age and than many factors including volcanoes explain the cooler global period, not just lower sunspots in the Maunder minimum.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p05rtd0d#play
 
Description MEDIA 2018/01 - January 18th 2018: Multiple interviews about climate change and weather extremes 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact January 18th 2018: Multiple media interviews on climate and weather. Comment son new study improving confidence in climate predictions with quotes in the Guardian and on the BBC in relation to record non-El Nino warmth in 2017. Also interviews on TalkRadio and a Sputnik News interview on the world economic forum report highlighting the risk of extreme weather. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/18/worst-case-global-warming-scenarios-not-credible-says-study http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-42736397 https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201801191060871115-extreme-weather-global-threat http://www.reading.ac.uk/news-and-events/releases/PR754614.asp
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201801191060871115-extreme-weather-global-threat
 
Description MEDIA2018/10 Multiple media interviews weather and climate (Jan-Sept 2018) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Multiple media interviews on heatwave (Sky News), hothouse Earth paper (BBC News) and Hurricane Florence and super Typhoon Mangkhut (BBC News, Daily Express).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014,2018
URL https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1017792/Hurricane-Florence-climate-change-atlantic-storms-are-t...
 
Description MEDIA: February 21st 2020: quoted in Telegraph article on role of Atmospheric Rivers in recent UK flooding 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Discussion with Telegraph about article on role of Atmospheric Rivers in recent UK flooding. The author changed his opinion and improved his knowledge thereby informing the public better.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/21/atmospheric-rivers-atlantic-blamed-torrential-rain
 
Description OUTREACH 2017/05 Weather and Climate Science for Society, University of Reading Virtual Open Day. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact Generate interest in Meteorology and further visits to University. Around 20 students interacted in a virtual tour and presentation on climate.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/TALKS/AllanRPVirtualOpenDay18.pdf
 
Description OUTREACH 2017/11 Was there a pause in global warming? Results from the DEEP-C project, Discussion group, St. Anne's College, University of Oxford, 1st November 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Was there a pause in global warming? Results from the DEEP-C (and SMURPHS/NCEO work) projects were debated at a discussion group, St. Anne's College, University of Oxford, 1st November 2017
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/TALKS/AllanRP_DEEP_C-Oxford.pdf
 
Description OUTREACH 2018/01 - The Science of Climate Change, Year 9 Climate Event, Wednesday 17th January, University of Reading 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact An interactive lecture on The Science of Climate Change was presented at a Year 9 Climate Event, Wednesday 17th January, University of Reading. Infrared thermometers were used by students to demonstrate the greenhouse effect and students also participated in demonstrations of feedback loops. I discussed weather extremes including intense rainfall. I received excellent feedback from the organizers and students, many of who enjoyed my section the most out of their days climate activities.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/TALKS/AllanRP1701Climate-Outreach.pdf
 
Description OUTREACH 2018/06 A lecture and demonstration of the physics of climate change at Bohunt Wokingham school, 7th June 2018. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact The Science of Climate Change lecture and demonstration of the physics of climate change at Bohunt Wokingham school, 7th June 2018.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/TALKS/AllanRP2018BohuntClimate.pdf
 
Description Oxfordshire Pension Fund Climate Change Workshop, November 8th 2019. Climate change and what to expect. 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Discussion and workshop aiming to guide Oxfordshire county council on its policy regarding investment/divestment from fossil fuel in its pensions. Impact on pension bodies and stakeholders on the damage of climate change that helped to change opinions and practice.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description The Science of Climate Change, Portcullis Trust (Richmond-upon-Thames), 6th March 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Talk and discussion on the science of climate change and discussion about policy options.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/TALKS/ClimateChange_Richmond_AllanRP.pdf
 
Description Twitter 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact My personal twitter account has over 13900 followers

Additional publications and authorship on book chapter. Increased interest from media and resulting appearances in print articles and online.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012,2013,2014,2015,2016
URL http://twitter.com/ed_hawkins
 
Description Warming stripes 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Design of a set of graphics - the warming stripes - which communicate changes in temperature over time in a simple, visually appealing way.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018,2019,2020
URL http://www.showyourstripes.info