Probability and Uncertainty in Risk Estimation and Communication
Lead Research Organisation:
University College London
Department Name: Statistical Science
Abstract
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Planned Impact
This project will promote long-term sustainable growth in earthquake prone regions of China by improving both the assessment of earthquake hazard and consequent event risk and the communication, understanding, and use of the resulting probabilistic forecasts for disaster risk reduction by policymakers and local publics. In so doing, it will contribute to the wider aims of the IRNHiC programme and of the UK's Official Development Assistance (ODA) commitment to poverty alleviation and sustainable development by addressing a key vulnerability differentially affecting the very poorest in China.
Engagement with the Chinese Earthquake Administration (CEA) and with provincial earthquake agencies will ensure that technical improvements in forecasting capacity are quickly translated into operational use in China.
Institutional barriers to using probabilistic information for emergency planning will be addressed through engagement with the China National Committee for Disaster Reduction, while improved building code regulation will be delivered through engagement with the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD). The capacity of local policymakers to understand and use probabilistic forecasts will also be addressed through targeted engagement in our two case study sites.
The project will also improve public understanding of and resilience to earthquake hazard and consequent event risks in China by:
*providing evidence-based recommendations about how agencies might share more complex earthquake forecast information in ways that are understandable by local publics
*engaging with the Working Group for National Hazard Maps (WG4NHM) of China to ensure that lessons from earthquake hazard mapping are applied to the communication of risk about other natural hazards in China
*engaging directly with local publics through school in our case study provinces to enhance public understanding and thus preparedness and resilience
Engagement with the Chinese Earthquake Administration (CEA) and with provincial earthquake agencies will ensure that technical improvements in forecasting capacity are quickly translated into operational use in China.
Institutional barriers to using probabilistic information for emergency planning will be addressed through engagement with the China National Committee for Disaster Reduction, while improved building code regulation will be delivered through engagement with the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD). The capacity of local policymakers to understand and use probabilistic forecasts will also be addressed through targeted engagement in our two case study sites.
The project will also improve public understanding of and resilience to earthquake hazard and consequent event risks in China by:
*providing evidence-based recommendations about how agencies might share more complex earthquake forecast information in ways that are understandable by local publics
*engaging with the Working Group for National Hazard Maps (WG4NHM) of China to ensure that lessons from earthquake hazard mapping are applied to the communication of risk about other natural hazards in China
*engaging directly with local publics through school in our case study provinces to enhance public understanding and thus preparedness and resilience
Organisations
People |
ORCID iD |
| Richard Chandler (Principal Investigator) |
| Description | The presence of uncertainty in seismic data in China is almost completely unrecognised, and therefore it is very difficult to convince people of the need to undertake research of this nature. |
| Exploitation Route | The main lesson from the project so far is that without recognition that uncertainty is present, and without an appetite to confront it, it is almost impossible to gain any traction in research of this nature. The priority must surely be education about uncertainty and risk, therefore. |
| Sectors | Communities and Social Services/Policy,Environment |
| Description | Building Resilience conference, 2017 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Two poster presentations at the conference "Building Resilience to Geohazards in the face of uncertainty" at the Geological Society in London, 7th and 8th September 2017. The aim of the first was to showcase the uncertainties in quoted earthquake magnitude estimates and methodology that is being developed to quantify them. The aim of the second was to demonstrate a principled methodology for inferring earthquake characteristics (with uncertainty) from anecdotal / intensity data. It is fair to say that few people at the conference were particularly interested in either poster. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | Presentation "Imperfect information in seismic risk assessment" |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Invited presentation as part of UK delegation visit to China, July 2018, |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |