Yr2 Underspend: Interaction of Convective Organization and Monsoon Precipitation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea

Lead Research Organisation: University of Leeds
Department Name: NCAS

Abstract

The monsoon supplies the majority of water in South Asia. This project is a large collaboration between leading Indian and UK scientists, which aims to make substantial improvements to the forecasting of the monsoon from days to the season ahead. A significant obstacle to making improvements is the lack of observations of the monsoon and so the project will involve the UK's FAAM large atmospheric research aircraft operating alongside a comprehensive programme of Indian measurements made form the ground. The project will lead to a new Indo-UK forecasting model applicable down to scales of 100m over India.

Planned Impact

The primary impacts of INCOMPASS will be delivered through our partners, the Met Office, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) and the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The effectiveness of these public weather forecasting and climate prediction services will be enhanced by better understanding of existing and new processes affecting monsoon predictability. The primary goal of the project is to improve the performance of the weather and climate forecast models used by these centres. Furthermore, improved understanding of the key processes in the monsoon will have knock-on scientific benefits, for instance in the improved conceptual understanding which can be taught to forecasters, improved ability to give strategic advice on issues such as land management, and better-informed strategies for model development. Improved monsoon modelling and forecasting capability in the medium-to-long term will raise the profile and performance of these organizations nationally and internationally, increasing their reputation (the current status of monsoon prediction is currently regarded as poor) and saleability of their products. These organizations would also benefit from our quantitative assessment of the value of new observations demonstrated by the 2016 field campaign of ground-based and atmospheric data, and generally greater awareness of the uses of such data.

Our weather-service partners will convey impacts of our research to national and state government ministries in India. These organizations will be provided with quantitative evidence to inform new policies of investment in the monsoon observing system, given the improvements to forecasting and analysis that we expect our new and additional observations will initiate. New interpretations of the effect of contrasts between different surface types on weather over India should also influence policies on agriculture and extraction of groundwater (both related to irrigation).

As a result of improved weather and climate predictions, there is an opportunity for planners and governors at the state and district level in India to benefit from improved protection against extremes, and associated impact reductions (of flooding, drought, delayed monsoon onset), if the intended improvements to understanding of monsoon variability and forecasting can be effectively communicated to society. For instance, the IMD are already communicating forecast information to millions of farmers via new electronic media.

Technical staff undertaking in situ measurements in India will benefit from improved skills and knowledge in measurement of surface fluxes, the relative merits of the different techniques involved and improvement in their quality control procedures. This will make their data products more reliable and useful.

Finally, the public will benefit through greater awareness of monsoon forecasting and its inherent limitations, and its effect on society. The public will also become engaged more directly with the process of science.

Publications

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Description Invited presentation at the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity: 2nd Meeting on Monsoons and Tropical Rain Belts at ICTP, Trieste, Italy, 2-5 July 2019: "Modern Monsoons: Progress and Challenges in Observations and Modeling" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact INCOMPASS PI Andy Turner gave an invited presentation at the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity: 2nd Meeting on Monsoons and Tropical Rain Belts at ICTP, Trieste, Italy, 2-5 July 2019: "Modern Monsoons: Progress and Challenges in Observations and Modeling". This presentation covered an overview of INCOMPASS work to an audience of monsoon scientists at postgraduate, postdoctoral and professorial level.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://indico.ictp.it/event/8457/
 
Description Oral presentation in the Open Session on Water and Extremes Research of the 8th GEWEX Open Science Conference: Extremes and water on the edge, 6-11 May 2018, Canmore, Alberta, Canada: "Emerging results from the 2016 INCOMPASS field campaign of the Indian monsoon" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Oral presentation in the Open Session on Water and Extremes Research of the 8th GEWEX Open Science Conference: Extremes and water on the edge, 6-11 May 2018, Canmore, Alberta, Canada: "Emerging results from the 2016 INCOMPASS field campaign of the Indian monsoon". This presentation by INCOMPASS PI Andy Turner gave a summary of the INCOMPASS project to the GEWEX audience, particularly focused on land-atmosphere interactions in the monsoon.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.gewexevents.org/wp-content/uploads/website_1145-GEWEXtalk_7may2018_agturner.pdf
 
Description Organisation of Royal Meteorological Society National Meeting on "The Indian Monsoon: Atmospheric Dynamics, Aerosol and the Ocean", 14 February 2018, Leeds, UK 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact INCOMPASS PDRA co-orgnanised the Royal Meteorological Society National Meeting on "The Indian Monsoon: Atmospheric Dynamics, Aerosol and the Ocean", 14 February 2018, Leeds, UK where INCOMPASS science along with that from BoBBLE and SWAAMI projects, also funded under the NERC/MoES South Asian monsoon programme, was presented.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.rmets.org/event/indian-monsoon-atmospheric-dynamics-aerosol-and-ocean
 
Description Poster presentation at European Geophysical Union General Assembly 2018: "Modelling the moistening of the free troposphere during the northwestward progression of Indian monsoon onset" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Poster presentation by INCOMPASS PI Andy Turner on behalf of PDRA Arathy Menon at the EGU 2018 General Assembly, 8-13 April 2018, Vienna, Austria: "Modelling the moistening of the free troposphere during the northwestward progression of Indian monsoon onset"
This presentation helped advertise the ISI journal paper associated with this work:
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3281 Modelling the moistening of the free troposphere during the northwestward progression of Indian monsoon onset
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2018/EGU2018-8790.pdf
 
Description Poster presentation at NCAS staff conference, 6-7 February, Manchester, UK: "Modelling the moistening of the free troposphere during the north-westward progression of Indian monsoon onset" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Poster presentation made by INCOMPASS PDRA Arathy Menon at the NCAS Staff Conference 2018, 6-7 February, Manchester. "Modelling the moistening of the free troposphere during the north-westward progression of Indian monsoon onset".
This work has recently been published as a paper in an ISI journal:
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3281 Modelling the moistening of the free troposphere during the northwestward progression of Indian monsoon onset
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://sites.google.com/ncas.ac.uk/ncasconference2018/programme/posters
 
Description Poster presentation at UK Atmospheric Science Conference 2018: York, 3-4 July 2018: "Synoptic- and meso-scale thermodynamic structure of the troposphere in NW India during the progression of the 2016 monsoon" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Poster presentation at the UK Atmospheric Science Conference 2018: Weather, Climate and Air Quality, York, 3-4 July 2018 by INCOMPASS PDRA Ambrogio Volonte. Poster title: Synoptic- and meso-scale thermodynamic structure of the troposphere in NW India during the progression of the 2016 monsoon.
This work presented work in development to the UK Atmospheric Science community (an NCAS and RMetS co-organised conference).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.rmets.org/event/atmospheric-science-conference-2018-weather-climate-and-air-quality
 
Description Poster presentation at joint INCOMPASS-SWAAMI-BoBBLE project meeting of the NERC/MoES South Asian Monsoon programme, 23-28 July 2018: "Synoptic- and meso-scale thermodynamic structure of the troposphere in NW India during the progression of the 2016 monsoon" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Poster presentation made by INCOMPASS PDRA Ambrogio Volonte at the INCOMPASS-SWAAMI-BoBBLE joint project meeting of the NERC/MoES South Asian monsoon programme, 23-28 July 2018. Meeting held at the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Poster presentation at joint INCOMPASS-SWAAMI-BoBBLE project meeting of the NERC/MoES South Asian Monsoon programme: "Modelling the moistening of the free troposphere during the northwestward progression of Indian monsoon onset" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Poster presentation at the joint INCOMPASS-SWAAMI-BoBBLE project meeting of the NERC/MoES South Asian Monsoon programme: "Modelling the moistening of the free troposphere during the northwestward progression of Indian monsoon onset". Poster presented by INCOMPASS PDRA Arathy Menon based on her associated ISI journal paper:
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3281 Modelling the moistening of the free troposphere during the northwestward progression of Indian monsoon onset
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Talk at INCOMPASS-SWAAMI-BoBBLE joint project meeting, 23-28 July 2018, Bangalore, India: "Synoptic and mesoscale structure of the troposphere in convection-permitting model simulations during the progression of the 2016 monsoon" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Joint talk given between INCOMPASS PDRAs Ambrogio Volonte and Arathy Menon on "Synoptic and mesoscale structure of the troposphere in convection-permitting model simulations during the progression of the 2016 monsoon" at the joint 2018 meeting of the INCOMPASS-SWAAMI-BoBBLE projects funded under the NERC/MoES Monsoons Programme. Meeting held during July 2018 at Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Talk given at the 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 16 - 20 April 2018, Ponte Vedra, FL, USA: "An Overview of the 2016 Indian Monsoon Progression from INCOMPASS Field Observations and Modelling" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Oral presentation given at the 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 16 - 20 April 2018, Ponte Vedra, FL, USA: "An Overview of the 2016 Indian Monsoon Progression from INCOMPASS Field Observations and Modelling" by INCOMPASS PDRA Arathy Menon. This meeting is a major international meeting of the American Meteorological Society.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://ams.confex.com/ams/33HURRICANE/webprogram/Paper340021.html