The economic impact of El Niño related floods and drought on small and medium enterprises in Botswana, Kenya and Zambia
Lead Research Organisation:
London School of Economics and Political Science
Department Name: Grantham Research Inst on Climate Change
Abstract
The proposed research will assess the impacts of and responses to extreme drought (Botswana and Zambia) and floods (Kenya) associated with the 2015-16 El Niño (EN) and subsequent rainy season. The aim is to examine the economic consequences for small and medium enterprises (SME) as they are affected by: water supply disruption in Botswana's capital Gaborone due to drought; extreme flooding in Kenya; and disruption in Zambia's electricity supply due to reduced hydropower production caused by low reservoir levels. The project is a partnership between the Grantham Research Institute (London School of Economics), the African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science (University of Nairobi), the Botswana Institute for Technology Research and Innovation and the University of Barotseland (Zambia).
African SME are seen as crucial for growth and prosperity, yet they face numerous challenges, including climate-related disruption to essential activities. However, these impacts are often poorly documented and the evidence base of economic impact is very sparse. This research is timely and urgent; in all three cases there is a need for real-time/rapid assessment as retrospective studies suffer from recall bias.
The study is designed to start in April 2016 and track impacts and response through to February 2017 to make repeat surveys of EN impacts, institutional response and learning.
We identify three main objectives;
1) To document the hydrological impacts and water resource management response during and after the 2015-16 EN.
2) To assess the recent and ongoing socio-economic impacts of EN-induced disruption and mitigation responses in SME.
3) To examine factors affecting risk perceptions and behavioural change during a period of extreme climate disruption.
All three objectives concern important knowledge gaps and are also designed to generate evidence and novel insights that can inform policy and practice to support more effective climate risk management.
The project aims to make a difference through academic papers for disciplinary (hydrology, climatology) and interdisciplinary environmental journals. We will also make presentations at relevant national and regional fora and present key insights to disaster management agencies. We will explore opportunities to scale-up outputs through joint collaborations (workshops, events) with other projects supported by this call.
Programme and plan of research - The work consists of six main stages over 18 months;
1) Scoping of EN impacts from web reports and local media, complemented with stakeholder consultations to agree study locations and sampling strategy. April-May 2016
2) Design survey and interview questions, identify key respondents and SME. May-June 2016
3) First survey and interviews. July-August 2016
4) Data entry, transcription and analysis. September-December 2016
5) Repeat revised survey and follow-up interviews (Learning assessment). December 2016-February 2017
6) Complete analysis and write-up. March-September 2017
Dissemination activities will be undertaken throughout the full period and include a small mid-project stakeholder event and final dissemination event in each country.
The proposed work aims to integrate contextual information, biophysical data, interviews and surveys, collected at key points during the study.
The work will generate rigorous baseline evidence for three countries of EN associated drought and flood impact pathways and damages. Robust evidence of damages is essential for costing disaster risk reduction programmes and adaptation and useful to governments and development actors for targeting actions. Insights of water/disaster management and SME response and follow-up assessment of risk perceptions and learning will allow us to generate recommendations on preparedness and response (what works well; why, where and when) and feed these into research, practice and policy communities.
African SME are seen as crucial for growth and prosperity, yet they face numerous challenges, including climate-related disruption to essential activities. However, these impacts are often poorly documented and the evidence base of economic impact is very sparse. This research is timely and urgent; in all three cases there is a need for real-time/rapid assessment as retrospective studies suffer from recall bias.
The study is designed to start in April 2016 and track impacts and response through to February 2017 to make repeat surveys of EN impacts, institutional response and learning.
We identify three main objectives;
1) To document the hydrological impacts and water resource management response during and after the 2015-16 EN.
2) To assess the recent and ongoing socio-economic impacts of EN-induced disruption and mitigation responses in SME.
3) To examine factors affecting risk perceptions and behavioural change during a period of extreme climate disruption.
All three objectives concern important knowledge gaps and are also designed to generate evidence and novel insights that can inform policy and practice to support more effective climate risk management.
The project aims to make a difference through academic papers for disciplinary (hydrology, climatology) and interdisciplinary environmental journals. We will also make presentations at relevant national and regional fora and present key insights to disaster management agencies. We will explore opportunities to scale-up outputs through joint collaborations (workshops, events) with other projects supported by this call.
Programme and plan of research - The work consists of six main stages over 18 months;
1) Scoping of EN impacts from web reports and local media, complemented with stakeholder consultations to agree study locations and sampling strategy. April-May 2016
2) Design survey and interview questions, identify key respondents and SME. May-June 2016
3) First survey and interviews. July-August 2016
4) Data entry, transcription and analysis. September-December 2016
5) Repeat revised survey and follow-up interviews (Learning assessment). December 2016-February 2017
6) Complete analysis and write-up. March-September 2017
Dissemination activities will be undertaken throughout the full period and include a small mid-project stakeholder event and final dissemination event in each country.
The proposed work aims to integrate contextual information, biophysical data, interviews and surveys, collected at key points during the study.
The work will generate rigorous baseline evidence for three countries of EN associated drought and flood impact pathways and damages. Robust evidence of damages is essential for costing disaster risk reduction programmes and adaptation and useful to governments and development actors for targeting actions. Insights of water/disaster management and SME response and follow-up assessment of risk perceptions and learning will allow us to generate recommendations on preparedness and response (what works well; why, where and when) and feed these into research, practice and policy communities.
Planned Impact
We have identified three case studies where the impacts of El Niño related climate extremes have been significant for key economic functions of the hydrological system. We have chosen to focus on SME because of their important role in economic development strategies in all three countries and the relative lack of research in this sector. For example, over 99% of Zambia's energy is from hydropower and the country's economic forecast for 2015-16 has been revised down in view of national power disruption. In Botswana, chronic and episodic water supply disruption to the capital Gaborone is a major issue and in Kenya floods during October to December caused 112 deaths and over 100,000 displaced.
Decision-makers in sub-Saharan Africa will benefit from the project through proactive communication of the evidence base on impacts and the empirical and applied insights of the research achieved through targeted activities. Post project sustainability will be achieved through publication of and access to the resulting evidence base of impacts.
We will achieve impact through (i) realising opportunities to engage with stakeholders through the research process itself, (ii) traditional academic outputs and (iii) specific impact related activities.
(i) Realising opportunities early on during the research process
The research involves extensive interaction with practitioners and managers in the water, agriculture and business sectors. We will take advantage of time whilst conducting fieldwork to make presentations at relevant national and regional fora. Key insights will be presented to DFID (and other donor/multi-lateral) country offices, relevant disaster management agencies and ministries of water and agriculture.
(ii) Impact through academic outputs and ancillary policy activities
We plan 3-4 academic papers targeted at disciplinary (hydrology, climatology) and interdisciplinary audiences. The papers will also be summarised in a short policy paper written for a larger audience which will be distributed through the LSE and the country partners' wide network of contacts. Furthermore, each paper will be accompanied by an online comment posted on the LSE Grantham Research Institute website and social media sites and other widely-read outlets.
(iii) Specific impact related activities
LSE has budgeted for a stakeholder event towards the end of the project to disseminate the project's findings and facilitate interaction with key in-country decision makers for whom the results will be highly relevant.
Each sub-contracted country partner has budgeted for impact-related events during and near the end of the project in country. We have already identified key stakeholder organisations and policy processes that could act as potential entry points for insights from the proposed work.
The research will generate rigorous baseline evidence for three countries of EN associated drought and flood impact pathways and damages. These will be made available through the NERC data management portal for future research and journal publications. Robust evidence of damages is essential for costing disaster risk reduction programmes and adaptation. The three study countries are middle income, however, our evidence of impacts is also relevant for low income country (LIC) contexts as SME are important routes for jobs and growth in LICs and insights on dealing with climate disruption will therefore be relevant to them. Our engagement activities will actively target LIC stakeholders and perspectives. Lessons learnt from historical events help in identifying important risk zones, vulnerable groups and potential sources of damage for risk reduction strategies. Insights of water/disaster management and SME response and follow-up assessment of risk perceptions and learning will allow us to generate recommendations on preparedness and response (what works well; why, where and when) and feed these into research, practice and policy communities.
Decision-makers in sub-Saharan Africa will benefit from the project through proactive communication of the evidence base on impacts and the empirical and applied insights of the research achieved through targeted activities. Post project sustainability will be achieved through publication of and access to the resulting evidence base of impacts.
We will achieve impact through (i) realising opportunities to engage with stakeholders through the research process itself, (ii) traditional academic outputs and (iii) specific impact related activities.
(i) Realising opportunities early on during the research process
The research involves extensive interaction with practitioners and managers in the water, agriculture and business sectors. We will take advantage of time whilst conducting fieldwork to make presentations at relevant national and regional fora. Key insights will be presented to DFID (and other donor/multi-lateral) country offices, relevant disaster management agencies and ministries of water and agriculture.
(ii) Impact through academic outputs and ancillary policy activities
We plan 3-4 academic papers targeted at disciplinary (hydrology, climatology) and interdisciplinary audiences. The papers will also be summarised in a short policy paper written for a larger audience which will be distributed through the LSE and the country partners' wide network of contacts. Furthermore, each paper will be accompanied by an online comment posted on the LSE Grantham Research Institute website and social media sites and other widely-read outlets.
(iii) Specific impact related activities
LSE has budgeted for a stakeholder event towards the end of the project to disseminate the project's findings and facilitate interaction with key in-country decision makers for whom the results will be highly relevant.
Each sub-contracted country partner has budgeted for impact-related events during and near the end of the project in country. We have already identified key stakeholder organisations and policy processes that could act as potential entry points for insights from the proposed work.
The research will generate rigorous baseline evidence for three countries of EN associated drought and flood impact pathways and damages. These will be made available through the NERC data management portal for future research and journal publications. Robust evidence of damages is essential for costing disaster risk reduction programmes and adaptation. The three study countries are middle income, however, our evidence of impacts is also relevant for low income country (LIC) contexts as SME are important routes for jobs and growth in LICs and insights on dealing with climate disruption will therefore be relevant to them. Our engagement activities will actively target LIC stakeholders and perspectives. Lessons learnt from historical events help in identifying important risk zones, vulnerable groups and potential sources of damage for risk reduction strategies. Insights of water/disaster management and SME response and follow-up assessment of risk perceptions and learning will allow us to generate recommendations on preparedness and response (what works well; why, where and when) and feed these into research, practice and policy communities.
People |
ORCID iD |
Declan Conway (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Gannon K
(2018)
Business experience of floods and drought-related water and electricity supply disruption in three cities in sub-Saharan Africa during the 2015/2016 El Niño
in Global Sustainability
Hirons M
(2020)
Resilience to climate shocks in the tropics
in Environmental Research Letters
Siderius C
(2018)
Hydrological Response and Complex Impact Pathways of the 2015/2016 El Niño in Eastern and Southern Africa
in Earth's Future
Description | The El Niño event in 2015/2016 was one of the strongest since at least 1950. In this project we analysed the impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño in eastern and southern Africa, focusing on Botswana, Kenya, and Zambia. We use field measurements and observations from satellites of rainfall, river flow and lake levels in combination with insights from experts in each country about awareness, impacts, and responses. Our results show that drought conditions prevailed in large parts of southern Africa, reducing river runoff and contributing to unusually low lake levels in Botswana and Zambia. This led to water supply disruption in Botswana and hydroelectric load shedding in Zambia. Warnings of flood risk in Kenya were pronounced, but the El Niño did not materialize as expected in 2015/2016. Extreme rainfall was limited and caused only localized impacts. Through surveys and interviews with key informants, we found businesses in the capital cities of Zambia, Botswana and Kenya experienced major disruption to their activities from El Niño related hydroelectric load shedding, water supply disruption and flooding, respectively. Yet, during the 2015/2016 El Niño, fluctuations in precipitation were not extreme considering the strength of the El Niño event. Results therefore highlight that even fairly moderate precipitation anomalies can contribute to major disruption to economic activity. Improved understanding of the regional impact of El Niño will help to be better prepared for the next El Niño. Addressing the risk of disruption - and supporting small businesses to adapt - is a development priority. |
Exploitation Route | The findings are reported in two papers and a Policy Brief which are all open access. Whilst we don't yet have download statistics one of the papers has been featured (one of three papers) on the Journal home page for several months (with a link to the video we produced) and the project has featured as one of six main panels on the Grantham Research Institute's home page. The survey data are now available through a public data portal. The findings are relevant to assessments of climate extremes on society (e.g. could be used in IPCC reports such as the 1.5 degrees report) and for the hazard early warning community. Insights from the survey assessment of businesses' awareness of the El Niño event and barriers to action could help design and operation of early warning programmes in east and southern Africa. |
Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Energy Environment Government Democracy and Justice |
URL | http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/el-nino/ |
Description | We have interviewed and discussed our work on El Nino associated floods and droughts in three countries with a range of experts (total sample of experts/stakeholders is 41) - many of these interactions have raised awareness about the role of El Nino in causing disruption to electricity supply in Zambia, water supply in Botswana and business activity in Kenya. Some insights and experiences from the research have fed into a Government report on Drought in Botswana. It is too early to see other specific examples of how our findings have been used. The papers and Policy Brief are now published and we will monitor citation/other use where possible. We have made numerous presentations to academic and practitioner (International Donors) audiences, some by request, and these presentations are likely to have fed into approaches and positions on topics related to the early warning and management of extreme climate events. Our results have featured widely in websites and news articles online - but we do not yet have examples of their direct impact. As of 2022 our papers have been cited 19* (Gannon et al., 2018) and 44* (Siderius et al., 2018) on Google Scholar. Our online video has been viewed >2,400 times and was selected by NERC for showing at the COP26 in Glasgow as part of the UKIR Stand. Both papers are cited in the Africa Chapter of the new IPPC Working Group II report published in March 2022. |
First Year Of Impact | 2018 |
Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Energy,Environment |
Impact Types | Policy & public services |
Title | Survey of micro, small and medium enterprises experience of urban flooding, water supply disruption and hydroelectric load shedding during the 2015-2016 El NiƱo |
Description | Dataset of 195 surveys with micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in sub-Saharan Africa that explore their their experiences of urban flooding (Nairobi, Kenya, n=60), water supply disruption (Gaborone, Botswana, n=57) and disruption to electricity supplies from hydroelectric load shedding (Lusaka, Zambia, n=78) during the 2015/2016 El Niño. The surveys were conducted in August 2016 in Lusaka, in September 2016 in Nairobi, and in November 2016 in Gaborone. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The database has just been uploaded (January 2019) - no notable impacts as yet. |
URL | http://reshare.ukdataservice.ac.uk/853445/ |
Description | A summary video was prepared of the project's main findings. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | A video was prepared and made publicly available - three minute summary of the project's findings. The video was promoted through institutional websites and several online blogs. The link was shared via the NERC website and Journal website (Global Sustainability) when the accompanying paper was published. The video was aimed at a wide range of professionals working on climate and development in Africa. It highlighted key findings and policy recommendations. The material was designed to be accessible by a wide range of viewers, including the general public. The aim of the video was to show that there can be unexpected impacts of climate extremes in Africa - in this case on small businesses in cities - rather than agricultural droughts/food security. This video has now been viewed over 2,400 (March 2022) times and was selected by NERC to be shown at the COP26 in Glasgow as part of the UKRI Stand. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018,2019,2020,2021,2022 |
URL | http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/el-nino/ |
Description | Contribution to Government report |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Our country partner in Botswana (Nnyaladzi Batisani) was the lead author of this Government report and he used experiences and insights from our research in the report; Botswana Government, 2018. Botswana Drought Management Strategy and Implementation Guidelines (draft). Ministry of Environment, Natural Resources Conservation and Tourism |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | DFID seminar on decision-making under climate uncertainty |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Declan Conway was invited to speak at a seminar in DFID on decision-making under climate uncertainty. He spoke in particular of the work undertaken under the UMFULA project. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | DFID water-infrastructure advisers retreat |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Declan Conway presented at this retreat on climate, power and load shedding in Africa. This led to a good discussion and interest the the work. It also led to a further invitation to DFID Tanzania in January 2018. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Press coverage associated with publication of project Policy Brief and blog |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | After publication of the project Policy Brief it was featured in several online news sites; Future Climate For Africa website article - blog Changing rainfall patterns spell risk for hydropower in Africa http://www.futureclimateafrica.org/news/hydropower-plans-in-eastern-and-southern-africa-could-put-electricity-supply-at-risk/ Climate Change News; https://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/09/20/changing-rainfall-patterns-spell-risk-hydropower-africa/ Online news article; Tanzania's climate change confusion https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-10-10-tanzanias-climate-change-confusion/ We don't know what impact this may have had. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Project results and video highlighted at Pre-COP26 Event |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | The results and video from this project were used as part of the Executive Chair of Natural Environment Research Council's presentation in Science for Zero-Net Transition Linking Green Objectives with Societal Developments - Pre-COP26 event. The symposium brought together universities, national research performing organisations and research funding organisations to look at how we collectively upgrade our ambitions, and how we can work together with non-academic partners shaping knowledgeable societies for a sustainable future. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-v5htApE8lo&list=PL9CK05a5kZurkczbT1Nc5S_bf5jJIS4Ya&index=6 |
Description | Range of news features covering publication of research article |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | With publication of our main research project paper (Gannon et al.) we produced a press release and blog on our website - this was picked up by multiple press organisations and featured on lots of websites. We don't know the outcomes but the coverage gave the research results a high profile. LSE Africa blog - features a Thomson Reuters blog https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/africaatlse/2018/12/11/as-southern-africa-faces-new-urban-drought-challenges-who-is-heeding-the-wake-up-call/ Independent news article https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/africa-hydropower-dams-climate-change-drought-renewable-energy-rivers-a8513331.html NERC PLANET EARTH WEBPAGE - BLOG AND VIDEO Climate change spells disaster for small businesses in southern Africa https://nerc.ukri.org/planetearth/stories/1922/ EN Research covered in online article; 'Adapting to uncertainty' needed in face of climate shocks: experts http://news.trust.org/item/20180515162035-buczq/ EN Research covered in online article; 'Adapting to uncertainty' needed in face of climate shocks: experts https://www.eco-business.com/news/adapting-to-uncertainty-needed-in-face-of-climate-shocks-experts/ EN Research covered in online article; Small businesses in Africa will be on the frontline of climate change https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/small-businesses-in-africa-will-be-on-the-frontline-of-climate-change-20181208-5 Prevention Web - video coverage New urban drought challenges for businesses in sub-Saharan Africa https://www.preventionweb.net/english/professional/multimedia/v.php?id=62481 Prevention Web - News article Small businesses in Africa will be on the frontline of climate change https://www.preventionweb.net/news/view/62416 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Research brief featured on Thomson Reuters News website - first page, 12/07/2018 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | A Policy Brief was launched and to accompany this we produced a Press Release to profile the main policy relevant messages. This was picked up by Reuters and featured on their website - we don't know how many people used the link or followed up afterwards. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Session at Africa Water Week 2018 (Conway) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Declan Conway organised jointly with CRIDF and SouthSouthNorth a session at Africa Water Week 2019 and presented his work on the Rufiji Basin and hydropower. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |