Modelling historical air pollution and dementia/cognitive decline - towards a life course approach
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Edinburgh
Department Name: Centre for Clinical Brain Sciences
Abstract
Air pollution has been linked with a variety of health problems. However, it has not hitherto been possible to investigate what role air pollution plays in the development of important chronic health conditions which develop over many years or decades, such as, for example, dementia (including Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia). This is due to little systematic monitoring of air pollution before the 1980s.
This project will attempt to remedy this research gap by producing modelled historical air pollution estimates for the mid-twentieth century using historical data on emission of various air pollutants (nitrogen dioxides [NOx], sulphur dioxide [SO2] and fine particulate matter [smaller than 2.5 micrometres or 10 micrometres in diameter; PM2.5 and PM10, respectively], in combination with historical meteorological conditions). We will then combine the pollution model output with two cohort studies: (a) a complete population narrow-age cohort (the Scottish Mental Survey 1947 cohort, N~70,000 all aged 11 in 1947) where dementia diagnoses have been ascertained through electronic health records and death certificates; and (b) a subset of this cohort (the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 study, N~1000) who have had longitudinal cognitive testing and clinical dementia diagnoses ascertained since recruitment in 2004.
This project will allow us to demonstrate that it is possible to estimate historical air pollution data through modelling and to combine these data with existing cohort studies in order to investigate the life course origins of dementia. Future possibilities to extend this work include: (i) modelling air pollution over more time points to get a finer-grained idea of 'exposure' to air pollution throughout the course of life; (ii) linking the modelled air pollution data with further cohort studies in the UK, Europe, and internationally; and (iii) applying these principles to other chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular disease.
KEYWORDS: Air pollution, Dementia, Risk Factors, Life Course Epidemiology, Prevention, Modelling
STAKEHOLDERS: People with dementia and their families; the general population; Alzheimer Scotland (charity); the academic community; the media; Public Health
This project will attempt to remedy this research gap by producing modelled historical air pollution estimates for the mid-twentieth century using historical data on emission of various air pollutants (nitrogen dioxides [NOx], sulphur dioxide [SO2] and fine particulate matter [smaller than 2.5 micrometres or 10 micrometres in diameter; PM2.5 and PM10, respectively], in combination with historical meteorological conditions). We will then combine the pollution model output with two cohort studies: (a) a complete population narrow-age cohort (the Scottish Mental Survey 1947 cohort, N~70,000 all aged 11 in 1947) where dementia diagnoses have been ascertained through electronic health records and death certificates; and (b) a subset of this cohort (the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 study, N~1000) who have had longitudinal cognitive testing and clinical dementia diagnoses ascertained since recruitment in 2004.
This project will allow us to demonstrate that it is possible to estimate historical air pollution data through modelling and to combine these data with existing cohort studies in order to investigate the life course origins of dementia. Future possibilities to extend this work include: (i) modelling air pollution over more time points to get a finer-grained idea of 'exposure' to air pollution throughout the course of life; (ii) linking the modelled air pollution data with further cohort studies in the UK, Europe, and internationally; and (iii) applying these principles to other chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular disease.
KEYWORDS: Air pollution, Dementia, Risk Factors, Life Course Epidemiology, Prevention, Modelling
STAKEHOLDERS: People with dementia and their families; the general population; Alzheimer Scotland (charity); the academic community; the media; Public Health
Planned Impact
PEOPLE WITH DEMENTIA AND THEIR FAMILIES AND THE GENERAL POPULATION
Dr Russ was involved in setting up the Scottish Dementia Clinical Research Network's Patient and Public Involvement (PPI) group which now has around 200 members. This application has been shown to them and their feedback has been used to improve and clarify the submission. This is a selection of general comments about the application, all from different people:
"I think the feasibility study sounds really valuable and will help a lot."
"I would like to congratulate you on the sterling research you are engaged in. ... By the way, I do think you are on solid ground with your theories but it is not me you have to convince."
"I have reviewed your study and found it to be very clear and concise. As a layman I found it very interesting and an attractive prospect."
"After reading the document I felt enthusiastic and excited at the project and the 'research question' it is trying to answer."
"What an interesting project; it is sufficiently detailed and covers a great deal. The project itself is fantastic."
We will hold focus groups in four regions of Scotland (most likely Edinburgh, Glasgow, Tayside, and Aberdeen) open to people with dementia, their family, friends, or carers, and interested members of the general public. The aim of these groups will be to disseminate the findings of our research to people affected by dementia before anyone else, and also to seek their feedback on air pollution in general as a risk factor and our project in particular. Their feedback will guide the development of future work. These groups will be facilitated by Dr Russ and will follow a semi-structured approach.
ACADEMIC COMMUNITY
The findings generated by the proposed research project will be submitted for publication in high-impact peer-reviewed scientific journals as well as being submitted for presentation at national and international scientific conferences.
MEDIA
Dementia research often attracts a great deal of media interest. For example, Dr Russ' work has previously been featured in national and international newspapers, on BBC radio and television, and on numerous websites. We will seek to issue a press release whenever findings thought to be of general interest are published and will engage in interviews with interested media outlets.
Furthermore, we will tweet using the Alzheimer Scotland Dementia Research Centre Twitter account (@AlzScotDRC; currently 881 followers) and will collaborate with the University of Edinburgh Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology's Knowledge Exchange Officer (Dr Robin Morton) to produce a short Youtube video summarising our findings (as Dr Russ has previously done: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BojlhIJ_TI8).
PUBLIC HEALTH
Dementia is of enormous global importance and is projected to show substantial increases in the number of people affected, particularly in low-to-middle income countries. This project has the potential, in the longer term, to have substantial public health impact on this debilitating condition. This impact may be beyond the time-scale of the proposed project, but is potentially of ground-breaking importance.
Dr Russ was involved in setting up the Scottish Dementia Clinical Research Network's Patient and Public Involvement (PPI) group which now has around 200 members. This application has been shown to them and their feedback has been used to improve and clarify the submission. This is a selection of general comments about the application, all from different people:
"I think the feasibility study sounds really valuable and will help a lot."
"I would like to congratulate you on the sterling research you are engaged in. ... By the way, I do think you are on solid ground with your theories but it is not me you have to convince."
"I have reviewed your study and found it to be very clear and concise. As a layman I found it very interesting and an attractive prospect."
"After reading the document I felt enthusiastic and excited at the project and the 'research question' it is trying to answer."
"What an interesting project; it is sufficiently detailed and covers a great deal. The project itself is fantastic."
We will hold focus groups in four regions of Scotland (most likely Edinburgh, Glasgow, Tayside, and Aberdeen) open to people with dementia, their family, friends, or carers, and interested members of the general public. The aim of these groups will be to disseminate the findings of our research to people affected by dementia before anyone else, and also to seek their feedback on air pollution in general as a risk factor and our project in particular. Their feedback will guide the development of future work. These groups will be facilitated by Dr Russ and will follow a semi-structured approach.
ACADEMIC COMMUNITY
The findings generated by the proposed research project will be submitted for publication in high-impact peer-reviewed scientific journals as well as being submitted for presentation at national and international scientific conferences.
MEDIA
Dementia research often attracts a great deal of media interest. For example, Dr Russ' work has previously been featured in national and international newspapers, on BBC radio and television, and on numerous websites. We will seek to issue a press release whenever findings thought to be of general interest are published and will engage in interviews with interested media outlets.
Furthermore, we will tweet using the Alzheimer Scotland Dementia Research Centre Twitter account (@AlzScotDRC; currently 881 followers) and will collaborate with the University of Edinburgh Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology's Knowledge Exchange Officer (Dr Robin Morton) to produce a short Youtube video summarising our findings (as Dr Russ has previously done: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BojlhIJ_TI8).
PUBLIC HEALTH
Dementia is of enormous global importance and is projected to show substantial increases in the number of people affected, particularly in low-to-middle income countries. This project has the potential, in the longer term, to have substantial public health impact on this debilitating condition. This impact may be beyond the time-scale of the proposed project, but is potentially of ground-breaking importance.
Publications
Baranyi G
(2022)
Life-course exposure to air pollution and biological ageing in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936.
in Environment international
Castellani B
(2022)
Mitigating the impact of air pollution on dementia and brain health: Setting the policy agenda.
in Environmental research
Russ T
(2018)
S4-01-03: LIFE COURSE AIR POLLUTION EXPOSURE AND COGNITIVE DECLINE IN SCOTLAND: MODELLED HISTORICAL AIR POLLUTION DATA AND THE LOTHIAN BIRTH COHORT 1936
in Alzheimer's & Dementia
Russ TC
(2021)
Life Course Air Pollution Exposure and Cognitive Decline: Modelled Historical Air Pollution Data and the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936.
in Journal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD
Russ TC
(2019)
Air pollution and brain health: defining the research agenda.
in Current opinion in psychiatry
Description | We have demonstrated the feasibiity of modelling historical air pollution as far back as 1935 and combining these with epidemiological data to estimate the life course effects of air pollution on health. We are now developing our modelling approach to explore how best to identify when it is most detrimental to be exposed to air pollution or if there is an accumulation of risk. We have published our findings and they received some pleasing coverage in the national and international media, including several UK newspapers. |
Exploitation Route | The historical air pollution data could be - and indeed are being - used by further researchers and the principle we have demonstrated could be further developed to provide better estimates for use in research. It has also led to a large collaborative grant application (currently being considered by UKRI) led by the University of Durham. In addition, we have one PhD student starting in the Autumn working in this area in the University of Edinburgh Precision Medicine Scheme and hope that another PhD student will be appointed to work in this area in the UoE Advanced Care Research Centre. |
Sectors | Chemicals Communities and Social Services/Policy Construction Environment Healthcare Government Democracy and Justice Manufacturing including Industrial Biotechology Transport |
URL | https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-alzheimers-disease/jad200910 |
Description | As a result of this award, I was invited to controbute to Alzheimer's Society report on the impact of air pollution on brain health: https://www.alzheimers.org.uk/for-researchers/report-on-link-between-air-pollution-and-dementia -- I have also been invited to join the InSPIRE consortium (https://www.inspireairbrain.org/) which made an unsuccessful application to the UK Prevention Research Partnership. This collaboration continues and is seeking to prepare further applications to develop this work. |
First Year Of Impact | 2021 |
Sector | Environment,Healthcare |
Impact Types | Societal Policy & public services |
Description | Alzheimer's Society report |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
URL | https://www.alzheimers.org.uk/for-researchers/report-on-link-between-air-pollution-and-dementia |
Description | NERC-MRC-CSO Improving Health with Environmental Data |
Amount | £56,519 (GBP) |
Organisation | Chief Scientist Office |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 02/2017 |
End | 08/2018 |
Description | Air pollution consortium led by the University of Durham (currently being considered by UKRI) |
Organisation | Durham University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | I will be one of the researchers on this grant, if it is funded. It was directly prompted by one of the publications arising from the NERC air pollution grant. |
Collaborator Contribution | InSPIRE: Innovating UK clean air policies to prevent cognitive disorders across the life course, particularly for vulnerable urban populations This is a large collaborative grant currently being considered by UKRI. |
Impact | None yet - under consideration for funding. |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | LifeGEIST Consortium - Lifetime geographic exposome in Swedish twins - Gene x Environmant interplay for Alzheimer Disease and Related Disorders |
Organisation | Karolinska Institute |
Country | Sweden |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | I have formed a new consortium with collegues from the University of Southern California and Karolinska Insitutet to apply for an NIH P01 programme grant to build on the work of this NERC-funded project. |
Collaborator Contribution | See above |
Impact | NIH grant application in process |
Start Year | 2022 |
Description | LifeGEIST Consortium - Lifetime geographic exposome in Swedish twins - Gene x Environmant interplay for Alzheimer Disease and Related Disorders |
Organisation | University of Southern California |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | I have formed a new consortium with collegues from the University of Southern California and Karolinska Insitutet to apply for an NIH P01 programme grant to build on the work of this NERC-funded project. |
Collaborator Contribution | See above |
Impact | NIH grant application in process |
Start Year | 2022 |
Description | All-Party Parliamentary Group on Air Pollution |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | I was invited by the organisation Global Action Plan to speak at the All Party Parliamentary Group on Air Pollution meeting on Clean Air Day |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Invited for interview with What A Year |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | I have been invited to be interviewed by What a Year, which will happen on 16th March: What A Year is a program of the Massachusetts Society for Medical Research (MSMR). One of the missions of MSMR is to provide educational tools regarding life science research for students and teachers in the elementary and secondary schools. One of those tools is the What A Year website. Each month of the US school year (Sept - June) we post a new story about a biomedical research breakthrough, written in such a way that engaged 13- and 14-year-olds and secondary school biology students ages 15 and up can understand and learn from it. Our goal in What A Year! is to introduce science breakthroughs to students AND to emphasize the collaborative and incremental nature of modern research. We do this for several reasons - · to let students know that research is ongoing and collaborative · to provide teachers with discussion topics and possibly assignment ideas · to show that researchers come from different backgrounds and have varied approaches to their work. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | http://whatayear.org/ |
Description | Newspaper coverage of publication |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Our air pollution article was covered in a large number of media, including websites and UK newspapers. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Press release and subsequent coverage |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Daily Telegraph Pollution in childhood affects cognitive ability Daily Express Pollution damages the brain Metro Air pollution 'affects thinking skills later' Yorkshire Post Childhood pollution exposure may affect brain years later Scottish Daily Mail Polluted air 'bad for the brain' Herald Air pollution hits brain function |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Public lecture |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Public lecture as part of the "Let's talk about health" series at the University of Edinburgh. A video of the lecture will be available on the University website. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
URL | https://www.ed.ac.uk/medicine-vet-medicine/news-events/college-events/let-s-talk-about-health-lectur... |
Description | Public lecture |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I presented our findings as part of a public lecture series organised by the Centre for Dementia Prevention at the University of Edinburgh. These were part of the University's open learning courses. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Radio interview - LBC |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I was interviewed on LBC radio about the association between air pollution and dementia |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Study engagement activity |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Study participants or study members |
Results and Impact | I presented our findings at an event run for participants of the CHARIOT-PRO study. One of them was also a participant in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 who we study as part of this grant. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |