UKCP18 Waves

Lead Research Organisation: National Oceanography Centre
Department Name: Science and Technology

Abstract

The UKCP18 waves internship aims to improve understanding of the policy drivers in decisions-making for managing coastal flooding and erosion risk by close interaction with DEFRA. It will also facilitate the running of downscaled surge and wave models of the North West European shelf, in order to make projections of future surge and wave climate to inform coastal flood risk. NOC has previously played a role in the UK Climate Projections exercise (UKCP09) by providing wave projections for the Marine Projections report (Lowe et al., 2009), on an ad hoc basis. The next revision of these climate impact projections is now in preparation (UKCP18). There is already a close working relationship between NOC, the Met Office, and the Environment Agency, through work on wave and surge modelling, and operational capacity with the Met Office Flood Forecasting Centre (http://www.ffc-environment-agency.metoffice.gov.uk/ ), and the UK Natural Hazards Partnership (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/nhp/). These works are overseen and funded by Defra, who make sure the science is pulled-through into policy. This internship would allow a NOC scientist to become more familiar with the Defra policy needs, while addressing science questions around coastal flood risk.

The intern will collate the wave and surge projections from the latest numerical models (NEMO-surge-WW3) forced by the latest climate projections from global Earth System models (from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, CMIP5, as used by IPPC Assessment Report 5), downscaled using high resolution atmospheric models from the EuroCORDEX project. The project will also deliver a new wave model run forced by the atmospheric RCA4 model. The internship will focus specifically on modelling surface waves, whilst parallel work on storm surge is ongoing at the Met Office. A close partnership between our groups has already been established through UKCP09, and more recent work on flood risk for Singapore (Bricheno et al. 2015).

As part of UKCP18, parallel downscaled surge modelling will be done at the Met Office, in close communication with NOC. We will collaborate to ensure the same climate model forcings are used so that a consistent set of surge and wave projections can be delivered to UKCP18. Extreme value methods will be used to project coastal impacts at key sites. We will consult with the Met Office stakeholder groups in order to decide where policy-relevant outputs should be delivered. There is also the possibility of implementing the statistical downscaling approach used by Tom Howard to add value to the global data. This method (developed for surge modelling) uses global mean sea level pressure to make prediction of surge extremes at key coastal sites based on the relationship between large scale driving meteorology and surge maxima based on existing UKCP09 datasets

The objective of the project is to build a relationship between NOC, Defra, and the Met Office, to tighten links between policy advisors and cutting edge climate science. While establishing this connection, we will deliver at least one science paper in a high impact journal. Another delivery of the project will be large wave model data sets covering the whole UK coast, which will be shared beyond the lifetime of this internship.

Bricheno, L., Cannaby, H., Howard, T., McInnes, K., & Palmer, M. (2015). Singapore's Second National Climate Change Study - Climate Projections to 2100 Science Report. Chapter 9: Extreme Sea Level Projections.

Publications

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Bricheno L (2018) Future Wave Conditions of Europe, in Response to High-End Climate Change Scenarios in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans

 
Description The wave conditions around UK and North Western Europe are projected. The mean wave height (average sea surface conditions) are projected to become calmer by around 0.2 m. However, the extreme wave heights (generated by storms) can be up to 0.5m larger. There is a strong uncertainty related to extreme future waves (e.g. average maximum winter wave), but planning decisions need to be based on the high-wave conditions, not just the average state. HIgh waves can damage infrastructure, as well as affecting transport operations / shipping. Also important as drives of coastal erosion, coastal flooding, can affect UK tourism through flooding, sailing etc.
Exploitation Route I am contributing a chapter of UKCP18 ( UK climate predictions 2018), which is being led by the UK Met Office. This will be published and used more widely by scientists and policy makers.
Sectors Communities and Social Services/Policy,Construction,Energy,Environment,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Government, Democracy and Justice,Transport

 
Description UKCP18 reporting: contribution to marine chapter
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
URL http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/24125
 
Description Participation in UKCP 18 Peer review panel 
Organisation Meteorological Office UK
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution I worked together with the Met Office to combine my wave projections with those made for storm surge and mean sea level rise.
Collaborator Contribution The Met Office developed the surge and MSLR predictions at equivalent sites
Impact still working on it, but should publish a final report ~ 2018
Start Year 2017
 
Description A talk at AGU Ocean Sciences meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Scientific presentation at the 2018 Ocean Sciences Meeting, 11-16 February in Portland, Oregon.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://osm.agu.org/2018/
 
Description International waves/surge hindcasting/forecasting workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact This takes place in September 2017 International waves/surge hindcasting/forecasting workshop. TBC numbers / impacts once it's occured!
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Liverpool Marine symposium 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact I gave a talk at the Liverpool Marine Symposium in January. This was a 'plain english' version of the talk to raise awareness of scientific jargon
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Poster at EGU meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Poster presentation at EGU 2017 "Changes in extreme wave conditions of North West Europe, in response to high-end climate scenarios."
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Presentation to Defra 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact I presented a summary of my findings to interested parties at Defra (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs). We discussed how this work should be captured in the UKCP18 marine report.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Seminar at Liverpool University 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Invited seminar speaker at the Geography lecture series in Liverpool University
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Telford Flood and Coast 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact presentation at the Telford Flood and Coastal conference
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://floodandcoast.com/
 
Description Webinar for the Environment Agency 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact I gave a webinar explaining my work on wave projections to the Environment Agency (EA).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017