Process analysis, observations and modelling - Integrated solutions for cleaner air for Delhi (PROMOTE)

Lead Research Organisation: University of Manchester
Department Name: Earth Atmospheric and Env Sciences

Abstract

Title: Process analysis, observations and modelling - Integrated solutions for cleaner air for Delhi (PROMOTE)

Air pollution has been widely recognized as a major global health risk. Given that 1 in every 10 total deaths can be attributed to air pollution (World Bank 2016), there are major implications for the cities of the world. As part of the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), Delhi is subject to air pollution from a complex mixture of sources. As a consequence of the complex emissions and meteorology of the region, particulate matter (PM as PM10 and PM2.5), nitrogen oxides (NOx, NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and black carbon (BC) all peak during post-monsoon periods and remain elevated during winter making the National Capital Region (NCR) one of the most polluted areas. Open questions remain regarding the inability of models to accurately predict air pollution during winter time fog events and quantifying incoming air pollution from large distances into Delhi.

Over 4 years, PROMOTE aims to reduce uncertainties in air quality prediction and forecasting for Delhi by undertaking process orientated observational and modelling analyses and to derive the most effective mitigation solutions for reducing air pollution over the urban and surrounding region. PROMOTE brings together a cross-disciplinary team of leading researchers from India and the UK to deliver the project aims. Its investigations will address three key questions:
Q1 What contribution is made by aerosols to the air pollution burden in Delhi?
Q2 How does the lower atmospheric boundary layer affect the long range transport of air pollution incoming into Delhi?
Q3 What are the most effective emission controls for mitigation interventions that will lead to significant reductions in air pollution and exposure levels over Delhi and the wider National Capital Region?

To address the three key questions we will:
1 Examine the contribution of secondary aerosols to the air pollution burden in Delhi during distinct meteorological seasons by developing a new representative model scheme for subtropical urban environments;
2 Investigate how boundary layer interactions lead to high air pollution events during pre-monsoon and stable winter fog periods affecting Delhi;
3 Quantify local, urban and regional contributions to Delhi's air quality through an improved understanding of aerosols, long-range transport and boundary layer processes;
4 Test the Delhi's air quality forecasting system incorporating improved understanding of aerosol pollution and atmospheric boundary layer processs;
5 Develop the first multiscale modelling system for predicting high resolution concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and other pollutants and then provide the analysis for developing effective mitigation strategies for Delhi;
6 Synthesise and translate the outcomes of PROMOTE with other APHH projects to provide datasets for exposure and health studies and contribute to a roadmap for implementing effective local and regional mitigation strategies to meet current and future compliance and health requirements in Delhi and NCR.

Through our analysis, we will deliver new knowledge on how local, urban and regional (LRT) sources of air pollution affect Delhi's air quality. With an improved understanding of aerosols and lower atmosphere dynamics, sensitivities between air pollutant concentrations and changes in local (e.g. traffic, industrial) and regional contributions will be quantified with a new multiscale modelling system for recommending interventions and mitigation options for Delhi.

Planned Impact

Air pollution in cities such as Delhi is particularly acute and affects citizens on a daily basis. It has an impact in every aspect of peoples' lives including their health, travel, work, leisure and social interaction. In order to develop solutions to curtail impacts of air pollution, a multisectoral approach is required involving the public, transport, Industries, construction, civic services, public health and regulatory bodies. Our pathways to impact plan takes such an approach and seeks to involve a range of stakeholders including public groups, local and governmental policymakers as well as scientists through the pathways outlined below.

We will engage with stakeholders in the following ways:
2.1 Local city officers, national and regional policymakers
Local government officers will benefit from information on high resolution concentrations of air pollutants and how they relate to local situations such as congested road, industrial activities and domestic and personal life styles. UK and Indian partners will jointly produce an executive summary for policy makers in year 1, mid-term and a final document in year 4, for example on recommendations to support the development of air pollution mitigation policies and action plans for the NCR through WP5 activities. This document will be widely disseminated through the project website, and email followed up with a dissemination workshop in years 2 and 4 for key stakeholders. We will contribute to improvement of the SAFAR programme and we will exploit the existing links through this programme to inform local government policy makers. Measures of success: A key measure will be the use of scientific outputs to inform local and national policy briefings and scientific assessments.

2.2 Science community
One day science workshops will be held back to back with our project meetings and we will invite key scientists from MoES and NERC, universities and the wider science community. We will exploit our current involvement in international science projects and assessment programmes to directly influence the international science agenda through major activities such as CMIP6, AQMEII and HTAP. Science results from the project will be presented at major international conferences such as the International Air Quality Conference, and meetings of EGU, IGAC and AGU. For capacity building of young researchers in India, training workshops on Air Quality and Climate Modelling will be organized and held at IITM. Measures of success: A key measure will be citations of the papers and the use of the publications to support the development of mitigation and policy interventions.

2.3 General public and media communication
We will target media, press agencies, policy makers, business, schools and colleges and the general public through our existing institutional press offices and outreach programmes. The involvement of the public will be encouraged by
communication of air quality related information through social media and regular media announcement to raise awareness of the project and its outcomes. Press releases will be issued both in the UK and India during key stages of the project, and to coincide with major pollution episodes in Delhi (typically in December/January) to maximise the reach of our project results. Partner institutions take part in national and regional science festivals and regularly give talks to schools and local societies. One day workshops organised by IRADe with other partners for media, researchers, school teachers, NGOs and policy makers will be organized to develop awareness about the impact of poor air quality, mitigation initiatives and also to provide an update about the achievements of PROMOTE. Measures of success: Key success measures will include press and media coverage, news releases, media interviews and engagement in public information events including at schools.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Title Development of isothermal dilution method for retrieval of particle volatility 
Description Instrument enables successive dilution of sample air with ultrapure air at constant temperature to force the evaporation of semi-volatile components in ambient particles, thereby yielding information about the evaporation rate and hence volatility. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2018 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact Whilst the method is not yet published, nor yet available, it will be deployed for the first time in May 2018, with method description publication shortly thereafter and application publication as soon as practical. 
 
Title Expansion of measurement capability at IIT Madras 
Description In collaboration with the group of Dr Sachin Gunthe, we have deployed the Aerodyne Atmospheric Chemical Speciation Monitor and the Magee Scientific AE33 Aethelometer at the IITM Lodhi Road site in Delhi and at the IIT Madras Institute in Chennai. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2018 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact No impact as yet, but the expanded capacity at IIT Madris has led to improved pollution measurement capability and pending paper submission, with likely subsequent joint publications. The tools are continuously available to Dr Gunthe's group at IIT Madras. 
 
Title PROMOTE Organic Aerosol Module (sub-components also adapted and used for UDARA) 
Description We have put in place a new module for the description of primary and secondary organic aerosol within the WRF-Chem model, based on the widely used "volatility basis set" (VBS) approach. The primary organic aerosol is considered as either anthropogenic or biomass burning in origin and carried as two separate volatility distributions in the module. Secondary organic aerosol is derived from two biogenic and two anthropogenic surrogate precursors and each is considered in its own volatility distribution. All these components are carried in each of 8 size fractions in the MOSAIC aerosol module. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2018 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact The module is fully developed and tested. We are using it to create a Gaussian process emulator that will enable the parameters in the module to optimally reproduce the measured organic aerosol. The module will then be passed to our collaborators at IITM for adoption by the SAFAR operational air quality system. The same module will be used within the UDARA project on the Indonesian domain (though not using the emulator optimised parameters for India). 
 
Description Collaborative partnership with Indian Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) -funded researchers within the APHH Delhi programme 
Organisation Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
PI Contribution Planned and conducted joint field experiments in Delhi, planned and conducted joint model developments
Collaborator Contribution Planned and conducted joint field experiments in Delhi, planned and conducted joint model developments
Impact None yet - but the collaboration will be ongoing as long as the programme is active
Start Year 2016