VolcTools -- enhancing ease of use and uptake of tools to improve prediction and preparedness of volcanic hazards.
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Bristol
Department Name: Earth Sciences
Abstract
Volcanic eruptions pose a major hazard to life and livelihood. It is well-known that the largest eruptions can have catastrophic impacts and there is an increasing awareness that smaller eruptions that are much more frequent can have a large effect on people, their assets and the economy on a local and regional scale. Events like the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajokull have shown that countries like the UK that are quite far from volcanoes can still be greatly affected by volcanic activity. The disruption to air traffic in 2010 had very large global economic impact (estimated at US$5bn). In volcanically active regions there are many towns and cities that have grown close to volcanoes and continued urbanization is exposing many more communities to volcanic hazards. Impacts here are more acute, with volcanic flows like lahars (mudflows) and pyroclastic flows presenting severe risk to life, while ash fall can destroy property and ruin livelihoods.
Managing volcanic hazards requires a detailed understanding of volcanic activity and the ability to predict future behaviour. Academic research has demonstrated that mathematical modelling of volcanic processes can greatly assist in the production of robust hazard assessments that can be used by policy-makers, decision-makers and hazard managers to protect people and their livelihoods from volcanic activity. Despite this, relatively few mathematical research models are used when volcanic hazard assessments are made. Scientists in agencies that are tasked with providing advice on volcanic hazards to decision-makers (the targeted end-users of this project) would benefit greatly from access to predictive mathematical models. This knowledge exchange fellowship will provide a suite of user-friendly web-based modelling tools, called VolcTools, allowing users around the world to access state-of-the-art volcanic hazard models from recent cutting-edge research.
Crucially, my project will have a continuous two-way engagement with end-users: I will learn from potential users about their modelling needs and the requirements of tools that would assist their operations; I will provide training to users on the tools that I develop and support their application of the tools; I will gather feedback from users and modify the tools to ensure that VolcTools meets the needs of users. Web-tools provide many advantages to users, such as very few computational requirements so that even very sophisticated and complex mathematical models can be run from mobile devices with the calculations performed remotely on high-performance computers. Users of web-based tools are guaranteed to be using the most up-to-date version, and the model can be easily maintained and upgraded. Modern web-programming allows web-tools to guide users through the set-up of a model and can provide instant, direct support to users. Monitoring of the web-tools is straight-forward and allows detailed user support to be provided.
This fellowship has a strong international user community who will directly contribute to the development of VolcTools. VolcTools will provide volcano hazard managers around the world with new capabilities to use models to enhance their activities with quantitative, evidence-based and robust predictions. Improved preparedness is key to disaster risk reduction. Scientific research, particularly in forecasting future activity and its impacts, is crucial to achieving this and VolcTools will bring the latest research models to volcano hazard managers. The result of better predictions will be improved hazard mitigation strategies and decision-making based on the latest advances in mathematical modelling. This can have a very substantial benefit on the lives of people affected by volcanic activity, through improved hazard preparations, higher confidence in policies and decisions, and less disruption to economic and social activities.
Managing volcanic hazards requires a detailed understanding of volcanic activity and the ability to predict future behaviour. Academic research has demonstrated that mathematical modelling of volcanic processes can greatly assist in the production of robust hazard assessments that can be used by policy-makers, decision-makers and hazard managers to protect people and their livelihoods from volcanic activity. Despite this, relatively few mathematical research models are used when volcanic hazard assessments are made. Scientists in agencies that are tasked with providing advice on volcanic hazards to decision-makers (the targeted end-users of this project) would benefit greatly from access to predictive mathematical models. This knowledge exchange fellowship will provide a suite of user-friendly web-based modelling tools, called VolcTools, allowing users around the world to access state-of-the-art volcanic hazard models from recent cutting-edge research.
Crucially, my project will have a continuous two-way engagement with end-users: I will learn from potential users about their modelling needs and the requirements of tools that would assist their operations; I will provide training to users on the tools that I develop and support their application of the tools; I will gather feedback from users and modify the tools to ensure that VolcTools meets the needs of users. Web-tools provide many advantages to users, such as very few computational requirements so that even very sophisticated and complex mathematical models can be run from mobile devices with the calculations performed remotely on high-performance computers. Users of web-based tools are guaranteed to be using the most up-to-date version, and the model can be easily maintained and upgraded. Modern web-programming allows web-tools to guide users through the set-up of a model and can provide instant, direct support to users. Monitoring of the web-tools is straight-forward and allows detailed user support to be provided.
This fellowship has a strong international user community who will directly contribute to the development of VolcTools. VolcTools will provide volcano hazard managers around the world with new capabilities to use models to enhance their activities with quantitative, evidence-based and robust predictions. Improved preparedness is key to disaster risk reduction. Scientific research, particularly in forecasting future activity and its impacts, is crucial to achieving this and VolcTools will bring the latest research models to volcano hazard managers. The result of better predictions will be improved hazard mitigation strategies and decision-making based on the latest advances in mathematical modelling. This can have a very substantial benefit on the lives of people affected by volcanic activity, through improved hazard preparations, higher confidence in policies and decisions, and less disruption to economic and social activities.
Organisations
- University of Bristol (Fellow, Lead Research Organisation)
- NANYANG TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY (Collaboration)
- National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru (Collaboration)
- World Bank Group (Collaboration)
- Willis, Towers, and Watson (Collaboration)
- Montserrat Volcano Observatory (Collaboration)
- Government of Turkey (Collaboration)
- Technological University of Peru (Collaboration)
- University of East Anglia (Collaboration)
- Meteorological Office UK (Collaboration)
- The National Center for the Estimation, Prevention and Reduction of Disaster Risk - CENEPRED (Collaboration)
- PRACTICAL ACTION (Collaboration)
- GNS Science (Collaboration)
- University of West Indies (Collaboration)
- International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) (Collaboration)
- National Institute of Civil Defense (Collaboration)
- University of Bremen (Collaboration)
- Geological, Mining, and Metallurgical Institute (Collaboration)
- Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Collaboration)
- AXA (Collaboration)
People |
ORCID iD |
| Mark Woodhouse (Principal Investigator / Fellow) |
Publications
Aspinall WP
(2021)
Pupils returning to primary schools in England during 2020: rapid estimations of punctual COVID-19 infection rates.
in Royal Society open science
Burton R
(2020)
The Use of a Numerical Weather Prediction Model to Simulate Near-Field Volcanic Plumes
in Atmosphere
Dürig T
(2018)
REFIR- A multi-parameter system for near real-time estimates of plume-height and mass eruption rate during explosive eruptions
in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
Langham J
(2021)
Linear stability of shallow morphodynamic flows
in Journal of Fluid Mechanics
| Description | Volcanic disaster risk reduction is greatly aided by preparatory studies including modelling potential hazards, but agencies tasked with hazard prediction often have limited knowledge on model development. In the first year of the VolcTools project, working with project partners, it has become clear that in addition to requiring modelling tools, the usability of tools is also an essential aspect of model take-up. Specific barriers to model use by hazard managers are: i) IT system and infrastructure requirements -- agencies are often constrained in their IT infrastructure and rarely have high-performance computing or systems that allow programs to be compiled locally; ii) commercial software requirements -- many models produced by the academic community are packages that require expensive commercial software to run (e.g. MATLAB, arcGIS); iii) version control -- maintaining up-to-date version of software can be time consuming and costly, particularly if updates to commercial software is required or IT systems support is needed to install updates; some institutions have restrictions on downloading from the internet from shared repositories such as github; iv) formatting requirements of input data -- volcanic flow models use topographic data and some models have inconvenient data formatting requirements; v) formatting of output data -- model outputs must be usable within existing processing workflows; vi) error reporting -- occasionally models will fail and when this happens there must be appropriate reporting of errors so users can diagnose problems, make repairs and recover results; vii) run time -- models developed by the academic community are becoming increasingly sophisticated, often leading to increasingly long calculation times despite modern computational methods and hardware. Run time is an important consideration for agencies, where workload is high, particularly during volcanic crises; viii) training and help -- agency staff often have multiple responsibilities and are not dedicated to modelling studies. Specific model training is essential but there must also be support when models are used in practice, which can be many months or years after initial training. These factors together contribute to the ease-of-use of a model. Models developed by the academic community will be more readily used in practice by hazard managers if they are designed with ease-of-use as a primary consideration. Web-based model interfaces (such as those that are being developed in the VolcTools project) can address many of the barriers identified above. |
| Exploitation Route | By identifying the specific barriers to the use of models developed in academia by practitioners, models can be designed and developed to overcome them. Models developed in the VolcTools project are being used by practitioners for modelling volcanic hazards. |
| Sectors | Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Description | VolcTools has continued to developed the LaharFlow model, which is being used by agencies tasked with managing volcanic hazards. New models have been developed in collaboration with agencies. AshDisperse is a new, fast and accurate model for forecasting volcanic ash dispersion. QHBayes is a statistical data analysis tool that allows volcanic source conditions to be inferred from direct observations of the volcanic plume height. During model development within VolcTools, there has been frequent engagement with potential end-users to exchange knowledge. This has resulted in capability building at institutions that are using models (both those developed in VolcTools and other models for volcano hazard management). VolcTools has built modelling capacity at a number of agencies (often in collaboration with other projects), including: - MTA (Turkish Geological Survey) - Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Philippines) - Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería (Chile) - SENAMHI, CENEPRED, INDECI (Meteorological Agency, National Risk managers, and National Civil Defence, Peru) |
| First Year Of Impact | 2018 |
| Sector | Education,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Impact Types | Societal,Policy & public services |
| Description | COVID-19 Mapping and Mitigation in Schools (CoMMinS) |
| Amount | £2,817,666 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | MR/V028545/1 |
| Organisation | Medical Research Council (MRC) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 09/2020 |
| End | 08/2021 |
| Description | From Everyday to Extreme: Strengthening Resilience to FrequentFlash Floods in Perú |
| Amount | £199,419 (GBP) |
| Organisation | University of Bristol |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 01/2020 |
| End | 09/2021 |
| Description | Ixchel: Building understanding of the physical, cultural and socio-economic drivers of risk for strengthening resilience in the Guatemalan cordillera |
| Amount | £502,276 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | NE/T010460/1 |
| Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 05/2020 |
| End | 12/2023 |
| Description | Philippines - Quantitative Lahar Impact and Loss Assessment under changing Land Use and Climate Scenarios |
| Amount | £380,459 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | NE/S00274X/1 |
| Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 11/2018 |
| End | 11/2021 |
| Description | Quantifying uncertainty in volcanic ash eruptions -- EPSRC Impact Accelerator Account |
| Amount | £51,068 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 09/2021 |
| End | 06/2022 |
| Description | University of Bristol ODA funding |
| Amount | £19,572 (GBP) |
| Organisation | University of Bristol |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 11/2022 |
| End | 03/2023 |
| Description | Volcanic risk assessment in Asia |
| Amount | € 38,000 (EUR) |
| Organisation | AXA |
| Sector | Private |
| Country | France |
| Start | 01/2019 |
| End | 01/2022 |
| Title | LaharFlow |
| Description | Developed the LaharFlow web-based interface to our predictive lahar model on topography. Developed functionality to allow the upload of high resolution DEMs for lahar modelling. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2017 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Used for simulating lahars and debris flows for the construction of hazard maps at Cayambe, Cotopaxi and Guagua Pichincha volcanoes, Ecuador, by IGEPN. Used for hazard assessment for a potential debris flow caused by a landslide at Lucre, Peru. |
| URL | http://www.laharflow.bris.ac.uk |
| Title | Alternative Covid-19 mitigation measures in school classrooms: Analysis using an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission |
| Description | The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic continues to have major impacts on children's education, with schools required to implement infection control measures that have led to long periods of absence and classroom closures. We have developed an agent-based epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission that allows us to quantify projected infection patterns within primary school classrooms, and related uncertainties; the basis of our approach is a contact model constructed using random networks, informed by structured expert judgment. The effectiveness of mitigation strategies is considered in terms of effectiveness at suppressing infection outbreaks and limiting pupil absence. Covid-19 infections in schools in the UK in Autumn 2020 are re-examined and the model used for forecasting infection levels in autumn 2021, as the more infectious Delta-variant was emerging and school transmission was thought likely to play a major role in an incipient new wave of the epidemic. Our results are in good agreement with available data and indicate that testing-based surveillance of infections in the classroom population with isolation of positive cases is a more effective mitigation measure than bubble quarantine both for reducing transmission in primary schools and for avoiding pupil absence, even accounting for the insensitivity of self-administered tests. Bubble quarantine entails large numbers of pupils being absent from school, with only a modest impact on classroom infection levels. However, maintaining a reduced contact rate within the classroom can have a major beneficial impact on managing Covid-19 in school settings. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Model results shared with Department for Education research team. |
| URL | http://datadryad.org/stash/dataset/doi:10.5061/dryad.pk0p2ngr3 |
| Title | AshDisperse |
| Description | A fast and accurate model of volcanic ash dispersion that solves the steady-state advection-diffusion-sedimentation (ADS) equation with a vertical wind profile. The model solves the ADS equation in Fourier space, using a pseudospectral method in the vertical. |
| Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Used to forecast volcanic ash dispersion during the eruption of La Soufriere St Vincent in 2021. |
| Title | MERPH |
| Description | A model that performs a Bayesian regression of observations of volcanic eruptions. In volcanic ash dispersion modelling, a 'source term' is required that includes the rate at which ash is injected into the atmosphere (known as the mass eruption rate; MER). The MER cannot be measured directly but is related to the height of the volcanic eruption column through the dynamics of turbulent buoyant plumes. Thus, inversion techniques can be used to estimate the MER from observations of the plume height. Datasets of these quantities have been compiled and the relationship determined by regression. In QHBayes, the regression is set in a Bayesian statistical framework, allowing uncertainties to be quantified. A distribution of MER estimates is produced from observations using posterior prediction, providing uncertainty estimates for the volcanic source term. |
| Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | Model currently in development in collaboration with UK Met Office. |
| URL | https://pypi.org/project/merph/ |
| Description | From everyday to extreme |
| Organisation | National Institute of Civil Defense |
| Country | Peru |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | This project aims to understand the physical and social impacts of huiacos in Peru. I have contributed by supporting the application of a dynamic model, including with training of partners. I am involved in the collection of data (including through UAV surveys in Peru) and in working with communities affected by the flows. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Partners have contributed their expertise to the project in various ways, including: - knowledge of the local geological, meteorological, social, and political context - knowledge of the history of events - access to the the local communities through established connections - topographic data - in-country project management and support |
| Impact | Community engagement workshops in the communities of Chosica and Chaclocaya, Peru. Training workshop at SENAMI including participants from CENEPRED and INDECI. Multidisciplinary project involving: mathematicians, hazard scientists, geologists, meteorologists, social scientists, civil protection professionals. |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | From everyday to extreme |
| Organisation | National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru |
| Country | Peru |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | This project aims to understand the physical and social impacts of huiacos in Peru. I have contributed by supporting the application of a dynamic model, including with training of partners. I am involved in the collection of data (including through UAV surveys in Peru) and in working with communities affected by the flows. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Partners have contributed their expertise to the project in various ways, including: - knowledge of the local geological, meteorological, social, and political context - knowledge of the history of events - access to the the local communities through established connections - topographic data - in-country project management and support |
| Impact | Community engagement workshops in the communities of Chosica and Chaclocaya, Peru. Training workshop at SENAMI including participants from CENEPRED and INDECI. Multidisciplinary project involving: mathematicians, hazard scientists, geologists, meteorologists, social scientists, civil protection professionals. |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | From everyday to extreme |
| Organisation | Practical Action |
| Department | Practical Action Peru |
| Country | Peru |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | This project aims to understand the physical and social impacts of huiacos in Peru. I have contributed by supporting the application of a dynamic model, including with training of partners. I am involved in the collection of data (including through UAV surveys in Peru) and in working with communities affected by the flows. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Partners have contributed their expertise to the project in various ways, including: - knowledge of the local geological, meteorological, social, and political context - knowledge of the history of events - access to the the local communities through established connections - topographic data - in-country project management and support |
| Impact | Community engagement workshops in the communities of Chosica and Chaclocaya, Peru. Training workshop at SENAMI including participants from CENEPRED and INDECI. Multidisciplinary project involving: mathematicians, hazard scientists, geologists, meteorologists, social scientists, civil protection professionals. |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | From everyday to extreme |
| Organisation | Technological University of Peru |
| Country | Peru |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | This project aims to understand the physical and social impacts of huiacos in Peru. I have contributed by supporting the application of a dynamic model, including with training of partners. I am involved in the collection of data (including through UAV surveys in Peru) and in working with communities affected by the flows. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Partners have contributed their expertise to the project in various ways, including: - knowledge of the local geological, meteorological, social, and political context - knowledge of the history of events - access to the the local communities through established connections - topographic data - in-country project management and support |
| Impact | Community engagement workshops in the communities of Chosica and Chaclocaya, Peru. Training workshop at SENAMI including participants from CENEPRED and INDECI. Multidisciplinary project involving: mathematicians, hazard scientists, geologists, meteorologists, social scientists, civil protection professionals. |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | From everyday to extreme |
| Organisation | The National Center for the Estimation, Prevention and Reduction of Disaster Risk - CENEPRED |
| Country | Peru |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | This project aims to understand the physical and social impacts of huiacos in Peru. I have contributed by supporting the application of a dynamic model, including with training of partners. I am involved in the collection of data (including through UAV surveys in Peru) and in working with communities affected by the flows. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Partners have contributed their expertise to the project in various ways, including: - knowledge of the local geological, meteorological, social, and political context - knowledge of the history of events - access to the the local communities through established connections - topographic data - in-country project management and support |
| Impact | Community engagement workshops in the communities of Chosica and Chaclocaya, Peru. Training workshop at SENAMI including participants from CENEPRED and INDECI. Multidisciplinary project involving: mathematicians, hazard scientists, geologists, meteorologists, social scientists, civil protection professionals. |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | From everyday to extreme |
| Organisation | University of East Anglia |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | This project aims to understand the physical and social impacts of huiacos in Peru. I have contributed by supporting the application of a dynamic model, including with training of partners. I am involved in the collection of data (including through UAV surveys in Peru) and in working with communities affected by the flows. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Partners have contributed their expertise to the project in various ways, including: - knowledge of the local geological, meteorological, social, and political context - knowledge of the history of events - access to the the local communities through established connections - topographic data - in-country project management and support |
| Impact | Community engagement workshops in the communities of Chosica and Chaclocaya, Peru. Training workshop at SENAMI including participants from CENEPRED and INDECI. Multidisciplinary project involving: mathematicians, hazard scientists, geologists, meteorologists, social scientists, civil protection professionals. |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | HUC Glacial Lake Outburst Flood modelling |
| Organisation | International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) |
| Country | Nepal |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | Supported the use of LaharFlow as a simulation tool for modelling Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) across member countries of the Himalayan Universities Consortium (HUC) coordinated by ICIMOD. Prepared and delivered a workshop of the physical basis of the LaharFlow model and it's use as a simuiation tool for GLOFs to introduce the tool to potential users in the HUC. Supported users in applying the model. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Members of the HUC have access to extensive observational data sets of GLOFs and their deposits. Sharing these datasets allows the LaharFlow model to be calibrated and validated for GLOFs and developed further as a simulation tool for these important hazardous flows. |
| Impact | Multi-disciplinary workshop on modelling GLOFs and related sediment-rich flows. |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | Huaycos and debris flows in Peru |
| Organisation | Geological, Mining, and Metallurgical Institute |
| Country | Peru |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | Provided access to modelling tools (LaharFlow) for huaycos (flash floods) and debris flows, and training in the use of this tool. Ongoing support in the use of predictive modelling for hazards. Direct collaboration on an ongoing hazard assessment, providing model simulations at high resolution for a potential debris flow at Lucre, Peru. Development of software for use in modelling training by INGEMMET in Peru, including a Magnetic Pendulum simulation (to demonstrate sensitivity of predictions to initial conditions) and a Flood Game (to demonstrate probabilistic modelling, decision making under uncertainty, risk). UAV photogrammetry survey of a town that was impact by a huayco (Chosica, Peru). |
| Collaborator Contribution | Local expertise on flash flood and debris flows in Peru, including community contacts. High-resolution UAV-derived DEM of Lucre, Peru, for hazard modelling. |
| Impact | Outputs: - UAV-derived high-resolution DEM for Chosica, Peru - Huayco simulation on the Chosica DEM, demonstating the effect of the urban landscape on flows Multi-disciplinarity: This collaboration involves geologists, hydrologists, and mathematicians. |
| Start Year | 2017 |
| Description | Met office plume height--mass eruption rate |
| Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | During volcanic crises, airspace management of ash hazards relies on forecasting ash dispersion in the atmosphere. These forecasts require an estimate of the mass eruption rate. This boundary condition has a leading effect on the accuracy of forecasts. Currently, the operational approach to estimating the mass eruption rate is to use it's relationship to the eruption column height which can be easily measured during an eruption. The relationship between column height and mass eruption rate has been calibrated using a database of historical eruptions, but the uncertainty in the data is not included. In previous research I have shown that the uncertainty can lead to order-of-magnitude under- or over-prediction of the mass eruption rate from column height observations. In this research, I have developed a Bayesian statistical approach to characterizing the uncertainty in the mass eruption rate estimation from column height observations. This approach allows operation ash dispersion models to quantify (i) the range of likely mass eruption rates and (ii) the probability distribution for the mass eruption rate. I have discussed the statistical methodology and implications for operational ash dispersion modelling with the Met Office (the London VAAC) and will develop software to allow easy use of the methodology. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The Met Office have provided insight into operational ash dispersion modelling and advice on making the research methodology applicable. |
| Impact | A new python package that implements the methodology has been developed, called merph (Mass Eruption Rate & Plume Height). Multidisciplinary with mathematicians, statisticians, geologists and atmospheric scientists. |
| Start Year | 2018 |
| Description | Quantitative Lahar Hazard Assessment in Philippines |
| Organisation | Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology |
| Country | Philippines |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | The Philippines has several active volcanoes and experiences frequent tropical storms, leading to high threat from volcanic mudflows (lahars) triggered by intense rainfall. VolcTools has developed modelling methods to simulate lahar dynamics and apply these to create lahar inundation hazard maps at volcanoes in the Philippines. We have worked with the Newton Fund project "Philippines - Quantitative Lahar Impact and Loss Assessment under changing Land Use and Climate Scenarios" (NE/S00274X/1), in which we developed and calibrated the LaharFlow model for rainfall triggered lahars at Mayon volcano. Using these calibrated models, we have performed ensemble simulations at multiple initiation sites around Mayon and Taal volcanoes, producing model predictions to inform creation of volcanic hazard maps. |
| Collaborator Contribution | We have worked with the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PhiVolcs), the authoritative institution in the Philippines who assess volcanic hazards and advise local and national government. PhiVolcs have expertise in the geology of Philippine volcanoes and extensive field and remotely sensed data, including topographic maps and rainfall records. These are essential components of the modelling system. Additionally, PhiVolcs' experience and expertise allows for simulation results to be assessed and incorporated into official hazard mitigation products. |
| Impact | Creation of model ensembles is ongoing, with results shared with collaborators for use in official products currently in development. This is a multi-disciplinary collaboration, involving mathematicians, geologists and GIS experts. |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | St Vincent eruption 2021 |
| Organisation | Montserrat Volcano Observatory |
| Country | Montserrat |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | During the eruption of La Soufriere volcano on the island of St. Vincent, I joined a rapid response research effort to provide ash dispersion forecasts for St. Vincent and neighbouring islands in the Caribbean. I urgently developed the AshDisperse numerical model of ash dispersion (created as part of the VolcTools project) as a forecasting tool and applied this during the eruption. Model results we provided to project partners for dissemination. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The region response to the La Soufriere eruption was coordinated by the Seismic Research Center (SRC-UWI) and the Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO). MVO initiated a working group to forecast ash dispersion, using AshDisperse as a simple but fast model, and a meteorological dispersion model using WRF (led by University of Bremen and UEA). The collaboration allowed local observations gathered by SRC-UWI and MVO to be integrated into modelling work, validating model forecasts. The use of WRF model allowed limitations in the fast AshDisperse model to be assessed. |
| Impact | AshDisperse results were shared with local agencies and further disseminated to local authorities. |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | St Vincent eruption 2021 |
| Organisation | University of Bremen |
| Country | Germany |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | During the eruption of La Soufriere volcano on the island of St. Vincent, I joined a rapid response research effort to provide ash dispersion forecasts for St. Vincent and neighbouring islands in the Caribbean. I urgently developed the AshDisperse numerical model of ash dispersion (created as part of the VolcTools project) as a forecasting tool and applied this during the eruption. Model results we provided to project partners for dissemination. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The region response to the La Soufriere eruption was coordinated by the Seismic Research Center (SRC-UWI) and the Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO). MVO initiated a working group to forecast ash dispersion, using AshDisperse as a simple but fast model, and a meteorological dispersion model using WRF (led by University of Bremen and UEA). The collaboration allowed local observations gathered by SRC-UWI and MVO to be integrated into modelling work, validating model forecasts. The use of WRF model allowed limitations in the fast AshDisperse model to be assessed. |
| Impact | AshDisperse results were shared with local agencies and further disseminated to local authorities. |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | St Vincent eruption 2021 |
| Organisation | University of East Anglia |
| Department | School of Environmental Sciences UEA |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | During the eruption of La Soufriere volcano on the island of St. Vincent, I joined a rapid response research effort to provide ash dispersion forecasts for St. Vincent and neighbouring islands in the Caribbean. I urgently developed the AshDisperse numerical model of ash dispersion (created as part of the VolcTools project) as a forecasting tool and applied this during the eruption. Model results we provided to project partners for dissemination. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The region response to the La Soufriere eruption was coordinated by the Seismic Research Center (SRC-UWI) and the Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO). MVO initiated a working group to forecast ash dispersion, using AshDisperse as a simple but fast model, and a meteorological dispersion model using WRF (led by University of Bremen and UEA). The collaboration allowed local observations gathered by SRC-UWI and MVO to be integrated into modelling work, validating model forecasts. The use of WRF model allowed limitations in the fast AshDisperse model to be assessed. |
| Impact | AshDisperse results were shared with local agencies and further disseminated to local authorities. |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | St Vincent eruption 2021 |
| Organisation | University of West Indies |
| Department | Seismic Research Centre |
| Country | Trinidad and Tobago |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | During the eruption of La Soufriere volcano on the island of St. Vincent, I joined a rapid response research effort to provide ash dispersion forecasts for St. Vincent and neighbouring islands in the Caribbean. I urgently developed the AshDisperse numerical model of ash dispersion (created as part of the VolcTools project) as a forecasting tool and applied this during the eruption. Model results we provided to project partners for dissemination. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The region response to the La Soufriere eruption was coordinated by the Seismic Research Center (SRC-UWI) and the Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO). MVO initiated a working group to forecast ash dispersion, using AshDisperse as a simple but fast model, and a meteorological dispersion model using WRF (led by University of Bremen and UEA). The collaboration allowed local observations gathered by SRC-UWI and MVO to be integrated into modelling work, validating model forecasts. The use of WRF model allowed limitations in the fast AshDisperse model to be assessed. |
| Impact | AshDisperse results were shared with local agencies and further disseminated to local authorities. |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | Volcanic hazards in Turkey |
| Organisation | Government of Turkey |
| Department | Department of Geological Studies |
| Country | Turkey |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | In collaboration with a Newton Fund RCUK-TUBITAK project (Understanding volcanic risk in Turkey for improved emergency response and disaster risk reduction; NE/P008437/1), volcanic hazard models are being applied at several volcanoes in Turkey to improve resilience to volcanic activity. I have supported the application of volcanic flow and tephra fall models in Turkey, and capacity building in Turkey with regard to modelling. The Department of Geological Research at the General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA) in Turkey use models developed in the VolcTools project for predicting hazardous flow routing. Scenarios include the generation of pyroclastic density currents, primary and secondary lahars, and ash fall. A total of 30 scenarios were modelled. A combination of models and modelling techniques were used, with significant capacity building of MTA staff. Ash fall was modelled using a probabilistic technique, accounting for variations in wind conditions. New post-processing methods were developed to produce maps of ash fall accumulation illustrating the probabilistic results, and to produce exposure summary statistics for agricultural and industrial areas, transport infrastructure, schools, hospitals and other points of interest. Pyroclastic density current models explored the uncertainty in source conditions, with both widespread surges and channelized pyroclastic flows modelled. Primary lahars were modelled using both a semi-empirical routing model and a recently developed dynamic shallow-layer model. A novel procedure was developed to model secondary lahars caused by rainfall onto tephra deposits. This involved the integration of meteorological records with an assessment of source catchment areas to develop source conditions, and a stochastic sampling of potential source locations. This produced a new style of hazard map whereby the most dangerous channels from the volcano (in terms of most likely to experience significant lahars) are identified. The suite of modelling results at each volcano were integrated into a combined hazard zonation map, accounting for the severity and likelihood of each hazard, and displayed in an easy-to-understand summary map. Combined hazard maps of this type were constructed at all 12 volcanoes. Maps for each hazard type were also constructed. Model data was processed into formats that allow integration with MTA systems and processes. Modelling was performed at MTA and in Bristol. The process achieved a substantial increase in the capability of MTA staff; prior to the TurkVolc project there was no modelling of volcanic hazards at MTA, and due to the VolcTool/TurkVolc collaboration, MTA now have capability to model several major volcanic hazards. |
| Collaborator Contribution | MTA staff have provided regular feedback on their experience of using models for volcanic hazard. This has led to greater understanding of the needs of model users, and direct improvements to the models developed in the VolcTools project. |
| Impact | Capacity building of MTA staff. New hazard maps for 11 volcanoes in Turkey, based on scenarios developed and modelling conducted in TurkVolc. Multidisciplinary, involving geologists (MTA, Bristol) and urban planners (MTA), and myself (mathematician). |
| Start Year | 2017 |
| Description | Volcanic risk assessment in Asia |
| Organisation | AXA |
| Department | AXA Research Fund |
| Country | France |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | Developing a new model of volcanic ash transport, specifically aimed at probabilistic hazard assessment and risk. The new model is based on a mathematical understanding of the governing advection-diffusion-sedimentation equation, allowing for efficient numerical computations. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The colloboration brings together expert knowledge in crucial areas, specifically: NTU - expertise in volcanic hazard and risk AXA - expertise in probabilistic modelling for risk |
| Impact | Ongoing research. Delivered new numerical modelling package to collaborators. Multi-disciplinary involving: mathematicians, volcanologists, hazard modellers, hazard and risk financing |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Description | Volcanic risk assessment in Asia |
| Organisation | Nanyang Technological University |
| Department | Earth Observatory Singapore |
| Country | Singapore |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Developing a new model of volcanic ash transport, specifically aimed at probabilistic hazard assessment and risk. The new model is based on a mathematical understanding of the governing advection-diffusion-sedimentation equation, allowing for efficient numerical computations. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The colloboration brings together expert knowledge in crucial areas, specifically: NTU - expertise in volcanic hazard and risk AXA - expertise in probabilistic modelling for risk |
| Impact | Ongoing research. Delivered new numerical modelling package to collaborators. Multi-disciplinary involving: mathematicians, volcanologists, hazard modellers, hazard and risk financing |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Description | World Bank Parametric Insurance for Volcanic Activity |
| Organisation | GNS Science |
| Country | New Zealand |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | The World Bank commissioned a project "Feasibility Assessment of Parametric Insurance for Volcanic Unrest and Volcanic Eruption" to assess the feasibility of implementing a parametric insurance scheme for volcanic activity in East Asia and the South Pacific. I was involed most heavily in the post-eruption component of the report (Component 3; feasibility of parametric insurance following a volcanic eruption). I contributed a report on modelling volcanic flow hazards, included in the Component 3 report submitted to the World Bank and as a technical appendix, and produced flow model hazard predictions. |
| Collaborator Contribution | All collaborators contributed to the component 3 report. Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technical University, contributed volcanic fall hazard modelling and a technical report. GNS Science contributed a risk assessment using the fall and flow hazard models. |
| Impact | Report to the World Bank on feasibility of parametric insurance for volcanic unrest and eruption. Too early to measure any outcomes. Willis Towers Watson comments: "The volcanic hazard modelling in the VIP project provides a framework for providing global volcanic risk metrics, which suit the needs of a variety of end-users, uniting academia, public sector, civil society, and the private sector with a common language for risk. It is this common language, underpinned by common risk metrics, which the Bristol team has developed that allows for the cross-sector collaboration necessary to strengthen resilience and reduce volcanic risk." "informed our own product development and understanding of methodologies for volcanic hazard understanding." Multidisciplinary project involving: geologists, insurance industry, risk analysts, mathematicians. |
| Start Year | 2018 |
| Description | World Bank Parametric Insurance for Volcanic Activity |
| Organisation | Nanyang Technological University |
| Department | Earth Observatory Singapore |
| Country | Singapore |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | The World Bank commissioned a project "Feasibility Assessment of Parametric Insurance for Volcanic Unrest and Volcanic Eruption" to assess the feasibility of implementing a parametric insurance scheme for volcanic activity in East Asia and the South Pacific. I was involed most heavily in the post-eruption component of the report (Component 3; feasibility of parametric insurance following a volcanic eruption). I contributed a report on modelling volcanic flow hazards, included in the Component 3 report submitted to the World Bank and as a technical appendix, and produced flow model hazard predictions. |
| Collaborator Contribution | All collaborators contributed to the component 3 report. Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technical University, contributed volcanic fall hazard modelling and a technical report. GNS Science contributed a risk assessment using the fall and flow hazard models. |
| Impact | Report to the World Bank on feasibility of parametric insurance for volcanic unrest and eruption. Too early to measure any outcomes. Willis Towers Watson comments: "The volcanic hazard modelling in the VIP project provides a framework for providing global volcanic risk metrics, which suit the needs of a variety of end-users, uniting academia, public sector, civil society, and the private sector with a common language for risk. It is this common language, underpinned by common risk metrics, which the Bristol team has developed that allows for the cross-sector collaboration necessary to strengthen resilience and reduce volcanic risk." "informed our own product development and understanding of methodologies for volcanic hazard understanding." Multidisciplinary project involving: geologists, insurance industry, risk analysts, mathematicians. |
| Start Year | 2018 |
| Description | World Bank Parametric Insurance for Volcanic Activity |
| Organisation | Willis, Towers, and Watson |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | The World Bank commissioned a project "Feasibility Assessment of Parametric Insurance for Volcanic Unrest and Volcanic Eruption" to assess the feasibility of implementing a parametric insurance scheme for volcanic activity in East Asia and the South Pacific. I was involed most heavily in the post-eruption component of the report (Component 3; feasibility of parametric insurance following a volcanic eruption). I contributed a report on modelling volcanic flow hazards, included in the Component 3 report submitted to the World Bank and as a technical appendix, and produced flow model hazard predictions. |
| Collaborator Contribution | All collaborators contributed to the component 3 report. Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technical University, contributed volcanic fall hazard modelling and a technical report. GNS Science contributed a risk assessment using the fall and flow hazard models. |
| Impact | Report to the World Bank on feasibility of parametric insurance for volcanic unrest and eruption. Too early to measure any outcomes. Willis Towers Watson comments: "The volcanic hazard modelling in the VIP project provides a framework for providing global volcanic risk metrics, which suit the needs of a variety of end-users, uniting academia, public sector, civil society, and the private sector with a common language for risk. It is this common language, underpinned by common risk metrics, which the Bristol team has developed that allows for the cross-sector collaboration necessary to strengthen resilience and reduce volcanic risk." "informed our own product development and understanding of methodologies for volcanic hazard understanding." Multidisciplinary project involving: geologists, insurance industry, risk analysts, mathematicians. |
| Start Year | 2018 |
| Description | World Bank Parametric Insurance for Volcanic Activity |
| Organisation | World Bank Group |
| Country | United States |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | The World Bank commissioned a project "Feasibility Assessment of Parametric Insurance for Volcanic Unrest and Volcanic Eruption" to assess the feasibility of implementing a parametric insurance scheme for volcanic activity in East Asia and the South Pacific. I was involed most heavily in the post-eruption component of the report (Component 3; feasibility of parametric insurance following a volcanic eruption). I contributed a report on modelling volcanic flow hazards, included in the Component 3 report submitted to the World Bank and as a technical appendix, and produced flow model hazard predictions. |
| Collaborator Contribution | All collaborators contributed to the component 3 report. Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technical University, contributed volcanic fall hazard modelling and a technical report. GNS Science contributed a risk assessment using the fall and flow hazard models. |
| Impact | Report to the World Bank on feasibility of parametric insurance for volcanic unrest and eruption. Too early to measure any outcomes. Willis Towers Watson comments: "The volcanic hazard modelling in the VIP project provides a framework for providing global volcanic risk metrics, which suit the needs of a variety of end-users, uniting academia, public sector, civil society, and the private sector with a common language for risk. It is this common language, underpinned by common risk metrics, which the Bristol team has developed that allows for the cross-sector collaboration necessary to strengthen resilience and reduce volcanic risk." "informed our own product development and understanding of methodologies for volcanic hazard understanding." Multidisciplinary project involving: geologists, insurance industry, risk analysts, mathematicians. |
| Start Year | 2018 |
| Title | AshDisperse |
| Description | AshDisperse is a new numerical model for the rapid calculation of the dispersion of volcanic ash in the atmosphere, using techniques of Fourier analysis and spectral collocation. The intention is that the numerical code is a simple but robust approximation, providing efficiencies that allow for large stochastic ensembles required for quantitative risk assessments. The software has been developed in python to facilitate use by practitioners, and developed in collaboration with AXA and NTU Singapore. The software is currently in advanced testing with collaborators. |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2020 |
| Impact | Currently in testing by AXA. Used to forecast ash dispersion during the eruption of La Soufriere St Vincent in 2021. |
| Title | LaharFlow |
| Description | LaharFlow is a shallow-water model for lahars, using modern numerical methods for hyperbolic systems. LaharFlow simulates two-phase flow, includes erosion and deposition of solids, and couples the evolving solids concentration to the flow resistance. Digital topographic maps are used to model the topography. |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2017 |
| Impact | Underlying mathematical model of the LaharFlow web-tool. |
| URL | http://www.laharflow.bristol.ac.uk |
| Title | LaharFlow webtool |
| Description | A web interface to the LaharFlow model. Developed functionality to allow the upload of high resolution DEMs for lahar modelling. |
| Type Of Technology | Webtool/Application |
| Year Produced | 2017 |
| Open Source License? | Yes |
| Impact | Used for simulating lahars and debris flows for the construction of hazard maps at Cayambe, Cotopaxi and Guagua Pichincha volcanoes, Ecuador, by IGEPN. Used for hazard assessment for a potential debris flow caused by a landslide at Lucre, Peru. As of March 2020 there are 370 user accounts from 190 unique users, from 51 unique institutions across 20 countries. A total of 5079 model calculations have been performed. |
| URL | http://www.laharflow.bristol.ac.uk |
| Title | MERPH |
| Description | MERPH is a python package that performs a Bayesian regression of observations of volcanic eruptions. In volcanic ash dispersion modelling, a 'source term' is required that includes the rate at which ash is injected into the atmosphere (known as the mass eruption rate; MER). The MER cannot be measured directly but is related to the height of the volcanic eruption column through the dynamics of turbulent buoyant plumes. Thus, inversion techniques can be used to estimate the MER from observations of the plume height. Datasets of these quantities have been compiled and the relationship determined by regression. In MERPH, the regression is set in a Bayesian statistical framework, allowing uncertainties to be quantified. A distribution of MER estimates is produced from observations using posterior prediction, providing uncertainty estimates for the volcanic source term. |
| Type Of Technology | Webtool/Application |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Open Source License? | Yes |
| Impact | Currently in development and testing with UK Met Office, for use in probabilistic ash dispersion forecasting. |
| URL | https://bitbucket.org/markwoodhouse/merph |
| Title | Software for processing model data to produce hazard maps |
| Description | Producing hazard maps from model simulations is often a time-consuming post-processing step. VolcTools has developed shareable python-based software to process output data from common volcano modelling tools and produce publication quality hazard maps. The software has been shared with MTA (Turkish Geological Survey) and used (in the TurkVolc project) to produce new volcano hazard maps for Turkey |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2019 |
| Impact | New hazard maps have been produce for 12 volcanoes in Turkey. |
| URL | http://TurkVolc.com |
| Description | Convective and Volcanic Clouds Training School Presentation |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | Talk and practical session at the 4th International Training School on Convective and Volcanic Clouds, Nicolosi, Sicily, Italy. Talk presented the fluid mechanics and mathematics of turbulent plumes and the application to model volcanic eruption columns. Practical session included modelling volcanic eruption columns using the PlumeRise model (www.plumerise.bris.ac.uk) and small group guided discussions on linking plume modelling to ash dispersion forecasts (run in collaboration with Nina Kristiansen, Met Office). The session sparked lots of discussion and questions, and participants reported increased understanding and interest in the topic. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Convective and Volcanic Clouds Training School Presentation |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | Talk and practical session at the 5th International Training School on Convective and Volcanic Clouds, Nicolosi, Sicily, Italy. Talk presented the fluid mechanics and mathematics of turbulent plumes and the application to model volcanic eruption columns. Practical session included modelling volcanic eruption columns using the PlumeRise model (www.plumerise.bris.ac.uk) and small group guided discussions on linking plume modelling to ash dispersion forecasts (run in collaboration with Nina Kristiansen, Met Office). The session sparked lots of discussion and questions, and participants reported increased understanding and interest in the topic. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Debris Flow Workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Workshop at British Geological Survey Edinburgh on Debris flows to discuss the current state of research and application of debris flow models. Workshop included participants from national geological surveys ( BGS (UK), INGV (Italy) ) and academics from Mexico, Italy, Iceland. I presented a talk on debris flow models for practical hazard assessments, prompting a detailed discussion of linking physical science to end-user-needs. I also presented the LaharFlow model, developed in VolcTools. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Discussion of modelling glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalayas |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Engaged in discussion on the use of mathematical models of sediment-laden surface flows for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods with the Himalayan University Consortium. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022,2023 |
| Description | Discussion of volcanic ash dispersion modelling with AXA |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | Discussion of volcanic ash dispersion modelling with AXA collaborator on development of ash dispersion models, with focus on developing modelling tools that are useful to users in the insurance industry. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Discussion on modelling Huaicos with CENEPRED |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Discussion meeting with CENEPRED -- Peruvian national agency for distaster risk reduction -- on modelling methods for Huiacos (flash floods). |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Discussion on modelling Huaicos with SENAMHI December 2020 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Discussion meeting with SENAMHI (Peruvian meteorological agency) on modelling huaicos (flash floods) in Peru. The meeting focused on the comparison of models, specifically the current flow modelling tool used by SENAMHI with LaharFlow which has advanced sediment modelling capabilities. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Discussion on plume modelling for pyroclastic density current hazards with BGS |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | Meeting to discuss the use of PlumeRise (volcanic eruption column modelling tool) with BGS and their research collaborators in modelling pyroclastic density currents (PDC). The volcanic eruption column model can be used to predict column collapse heights and eruption rates that are important inputs into PDC models. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Edinburgh Fuego workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presented a talk on modelling lahar hazards at a workshop on the Fuego, Guatemala, volcanic eruption. Attended by 10 academics from a multiple disciplines. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Huaicos workshop Chaclacayo |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Public workshop on Huaicos in Chaclacayo, Lima Province, Peru, including community members, local civil defense, national agencies for meteorology and disaster risk reduction. The workshop co-developed the programme of study and aims for mitigation plans with the local community. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Integration of landcover variation into lahar models |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Discussion with PhiVolcs on integration of landcover variations into lahar model (LaharFlow) |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | LaharFlow initial training to PhiVolcs |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Training session (via teleconference) provided for the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PhiVolcs; Philippines) on the use of LaharFlow as a lahar hazard model. An audience of 10 professional volcanologists and volcano hazard managers attended for a presentation on the physics of lahar dynamics and hands-on training with the LaharFlow web-tool. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | LaharFlow training to SGC |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Training session (via teleconference) provided for the Seismic Research Centre, University of the West Indies on the use of LaharFlow as a lahar hazard model. An audience of 9 professional volcanologists and hazard managers attended for a presentation on the physics of lahar dynamics and hands-on training with the LaharFlow web-tool. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | LaharFlow training with INDECI Peru |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Online video conferencing training meeting with INDECI, national civil defense agency in Peru, on modelling sediment laden flash floods (huaicos) in Peru. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | LaharFlow workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | 12 attendees to a two-day workshop on an introduction to the LaharFlow model, including discussion sessions and interactive engagement. Attendees reported that they will use the LaharFlow model in the future for their research and operations. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Meeting at BGS on statistical methods for ash dispersion modelling |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Meeting at BGS Edinburgh with three members of the volcanic hazards team to discuss the development of statistical methods applied to volcanic ash transport modelling. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Meeting with BGS on hazard assessment in Turkey |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Discussion meeting with British Geological Survey (BGS) on hazard assessment related to volcanic activity in Turkey. BGS are conducting a hazard assessment for a potential new nuclear power station in Turkey, and there will be potential exposure to volcanic hazards, particularly low level ash deposition from eruptions in Turkey, Greece, Italy. The discussion focussed on the use of outputs from the TurkVolc project, with the involvement of VolcTools for modelling hazards, to inform the volcanic hazard assessment. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Meeting with Department for Education on modelling Covid-19 in schools |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | A model for Covid-19 transmission in primary school classrooms was developed rapidly during the pandemic. The model was used to analyze different strategies for managing Covid-19 infection and transmission and reducing pupil absence. The model was described to members of the Department for Education research team and the results shared. Attendees reported interest in the results. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Meeting with Met Office on uncertainty in volcanic dispersion modelling |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Discussion of impact of source uncertainty on forecasts of atmospheric dispersion of volcanic ash with the Atmospheric Dispersion and Air Quality group at the UK Met Office. Discussed the use of data bases of historical eruptions in determining key aspects of modelling ash emissions and how uncertainty can be quantified. Resulted in plans for further collaboration and development of practical methodology. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022,2023 |
| Description | Meeting with UK Met Office on statistical inference for volcanic source terms |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Discussion on using statistical methods to understand data relating volcanic source conditions to volcanic plume dynamics, and on using Bayesian inference to estimate unobserved quantities from direct observations. Attendees reported interest in adopting these methods in operational practice. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Meeting with University of Lancaster |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Undergraduate students |
| Results and Impact | Meeting with student at University of Lancaster using the LaharFlow model as part of an undergraduate research project. I presented elements of physics that underpins the model and practical use. Attendees reported greater understanding after the meeting. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Meeting with the Met Office on local ash transport and remobilization |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Meeting with scientist from the Met Office Atmospheric Dispersion and Air Quality group on modelling local ash transport and remobilization. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Meetings on ash dispersion from La Soufriere |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Meetings between Montserrat Volcano Observatory, Seismic Research Center University of West Indies, University of East Anglia, University of Bremen and University of Bristol (VolcTools) to develop ash dispersion forecasting capability during the eruption of La Soufriere on the island of St. Vincent. Rapid progress was made in implement two ash dispersion models: a detailed meteorological dispersion model developed in WRF by UEA and Bremen, and the AshDisperse model developed as part of VolcTools. AshDisperse was used to make multiple daily forecasts, disseminated to partners via a web-site and subsequently by the regional coordinating agencies to local authorities. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Meetings with IGEPN on lahars in Ecuador |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Research meetings with Instituto Geofísico de la Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Ecuador (the authorative institution on volcanic hazards of Ecuador) on the use of LaharFlow as a model for lahars and debris flows in Ecuador. The meetings have assisted the use of LaharFlow as a modelling tool for hazard assessment and have resulted in ongoing collaboration. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Modelling lahars. huaycos and other shallow surface flows |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Two 2-day workshops held on the physics and mathematical modelling of sediment-laden flows (lahars and huaycos) at INGEMMET (Geological, Mining, and Metallurgical Institute, Peru). Approximately 10 participants in Lima and 8 participants in Arequipa. Demonstrated and provided training on the use of LaharFlow as a lahar hazard model. Discussed the use of the model for urban flash flooding (huaycos). |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Modelling sedimentary flows and application to Huaicos, SENAMHI, Peru |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | One day training workshop at SENAMHI -- the Peruvian national meteorological agency -- on modelling sedimentary flows (both theory and using LaharFlow) and application to Huiacos (sediment-laden flash floods). |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar - Huaicos workshop Chosica |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Public workshop on Huaicos in Chosica, Lima Province, Peru, including community members, local civil defense, national agencies for meteorology and disaster risk reduction. The workshop co-developed the programme of study and aims for mitigation plans with the local community. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Plume modelling meeting with USGS |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Meeting with USGS scientists and professional volcanic hazard managers to discuss volcanic plume models and their use in volcano monitoring during eruptions. Discussion included the operational use of plume models and the development of user interfaces. Plans were made to continue working together, further developing the PlumeRise tool for use at USGS. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Presentation for Satellite Applications Catapult |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation to delegation from Satellite Applications Catapult on "Topographic data for hazard modelling" |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Roundtable meeting with Department for Education on modelling Covid-19 infection in schools using stochastic simulation |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Roundtable discussion with the Central Research Division of the Department for Education on using stochastic simulation methods to quantify covid-19 infection risk in schools in light of uncertainty. Discussion focused on techniques of Structured Expert Judgement (an elicitation process to rapidly estimate important parameters during emergencies) and stochastic simulation using network models that have been applied in volcanic emergencies. Presentation of methods and application to Covid-19 sparked questions and discussion, and requests for further information. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Short course on volcanic hazards |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presented a two-day short course, with Steve Sparks, on volcanic hazards at the Turkish Geological Survey (MTA), to give an overview of the current state of volcanic hazard and risk. This activity is linked to the TurkVolc project, aimed at increasing the capability in volcanic hazard and risk in Turkey. I presented on the modelling aspects of volcanic hazards, specifically: (i) a introduction to mathematical, physical and statistical modelling; (ii) modelling ash transport and dispersion; (iii) modelling pyroclastic density currents; (iv) modelling lahars and debris flows. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Training on LaharFlow for huaicos |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Initial training on modelling lahars and huiacos provided via Skype for INDECI (National civil defense) Peru. Seven INDECI staff involved. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | TurkVolc meeting with AFAD |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Planning and Risk Reduction Department on 18th July 2019 at the AFAD Ankara headquarters to discuss the hazards related to volcanoes in Turkey. The meeting included an introduction to volcanic hazards given by the TurkVolc team, using VolFilm segments for illustration, and a discussion of the role of AFAD in case of future volcanic activity in Turkey. TurkVolc presented a draft of the new volcano hazard maps developed in the project. AFAD demonstrated the AFAD-ARAS mapping interface, which is the Turkish national disaster risk assessment system, and there was a detailed discussion on how to integrate TurkVolc hazard maps with the ARAS system. There was agreement that AFAD would look to include volcanic hazards on ARAS, to complement their existing multi-hazard data, and that the TurkVolc hazard maps would be developed in a format facilitating this integration. Work to provide the volcanic hazard maps in a suitable format is ongoing. Additionally, AFAD expressed interest in further developing their knowledge of volcanic hazards to ensure institutional capacity for managing volcanic emergencies in Turkey. There was willingness to engage in future collaboration, specifically on volcanic risk and preparedness. Further engagement with AFAD took place during the TurkVolc workshop in Ankara (21--22 October 2019), where the new hazard maps developed during TurkVolc for 12 volcanoes were presented. The engagement with AFAD has had several immediate impacts: - a recognition in AFAD of the potential scale and range of hazards associated with Turkish volcanoes; - a recognition of the need to include volcanic hazards within the Turkish national disaster risk assessment system; - a fostering inter-agency engagement between the Turkish national geological survey (MTA) and the national disaster and emergency management authority (AFAD). |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Volcanic plume modelling during the La Palma eruption |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | During the long-lasting volcanic eruption on La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain, there was a need to estimate the volume of material erupted, to allow hazard managers to forecast the duration of the eruption. While a proportion of the magma was erupted as lava, there was also a volcanic plume that transported ash into the atmosphere. It is difficult to measure the mass erupted as volcanic ash, so we employed our volcanic plume model, PlumeRise, to infer the mass eruption rate and integrate these to estimate the erupted mass. The results we shared with the scientific advisory committee of the emergency managers on La Palma to inform their forecast. The results were received with interest, and a new system and training requested. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021,2022 |
| Description | Workshop on DEM processing for flow modelling |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Small workshop for professional practioners at the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PhiVolcs) on the processing of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) for use in flow modelling. Attendees reported interest in the methodology. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Workshop on modelling GLOFs and related sediment-rich flows in the Himalayas |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Developed and delivered an interactive workshop on modelling Glacial Lake Outburst Floods using the LaharFlow web-tool. Presented the physics and mathematics of modelling sediment-rich shallow flows on topography. Demonstrated the use of the LaharFlow tool through small group exercises. Attendees reported increased understanding of modelling GLOFs and interest in adopting modelling approaches. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Workshop on modelling volcanic plumes for IGN Tenerife. |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | I created and delivered a workshop in Tenerife for Dirección General del Instituto Geografico Nacional (IGN, National Geographical Institute, Spain) on modelling volcanic plumes. During the long-lasting eruption on La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain, I developed a system to using a model of volcanic plumes as a tool to rapidly infer the eruption rate of tephra and estimate the cumulative erupted mass. In this workshop, I presented the physical foundations of volcanic plume models and the fluid mechanics of turbulent buoyant convection. I demonstrated the PlumeRise model and web-interface, and showed how it can be used as an inference tool during volcanic eruptions through interactive training sessions. This provides new capability for IGN during eruptions, and plans were made for further development and ongoing collaboration. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Workshop on using python for processing geospatial data |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Workshop for professional volcanologist and volcano hazard managers on using python to process, edit and analyze geospatial data. The aim was to illustrate the utility of python to automate onerous geospatial processing tasks. The practioners are highly capable in GIS software, but face repeated tasks that can be time consuming. Demonstrations we used to show that tasks can be programmed easily in python to automate workflows. Attendees reported interest in the approach and expressed desire to learn more python programming, and an interest in further training. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |