CAMPUS (Combining Autonomous observations and Models for Predicting and Understanding Shelf seas)

Lead Research Organisation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Department Name: Plymouth Marine Lab

Abstract

Shelf seas are of major societal importance providing a diverse range of goods (e.g. fisheries, renewable energy, transport) and services (e.g. carbon and nutrient cycling and biodiversity). Managing UK seas to maintain clean, healthy, safe, productive and biologically diverse oceans and seas is a key governmental objective, as evidenced by the obligations to obtain Good Environmental Status (GES) under the UK Marine Strategy Framework, the Convention on Biological Diversity and ratification of the Oslo-Paris Convention (OSPAR) .. The delivery of these obligations requires comprehensive information about the state of our seas which in turn requires a combination of numerical models and observational programs.

Computer modelling of marine ecosystems allows us to explore the recent past and predict future states of physical, chemical and biological properties of the sea, and how they vary in 3D space and time. In an analogous manner to the weather forecast, the Met Office runs a marine operational forecast system providing both short term forecast and multi-decadal historical data products. The quality of these forecasts is improved by using data assimilation; the process of predicting the most accurate ocean state using observations to nudge model simulations, producing a combined observation and model product.

Marine autonomous vehicles (MAVs) are a rapidly maturing technology and are now routinely deployed both in support of research and as a component of an ocean observing system. When used in conjunction with fixed point observatories, ships of opportunity and satellite remote sensing, the strategic deployment of MAVs offers the prospect of substantial improvement in our observing network. Marine Gliders in particular have the capability to provide depth resolved data sets of high resolution from deployments that can endure several months and cover 100s kms, allowing the collection of sufficient information to be useful for assimilation into models.

We will improve the exchange of data between model systems and observational networks to inform an improved strategy for the deployment of the UK's high-cost marine observing capability. In particular we will utilise mathematical and statistical models to develop and test "smart" autonomy - autonomous systems that are enabled to selectively search and monitor explicit features within the marine system. By developing data assimilation techniques to utilise autonomous data, our model systems will be able to better characterise episodic events such as the spring bloom, harmful algal blooms and oxygen depletion, which are currently not well captured and are key to understanding ecosystem variability and therefore quantifying GES.
In doing so CAMPUS will provide a step change in the combined use of observation and modelling technologies, delivered through a combination of autonomous technologies (gliders), other observations and shelf-wide numerical models. This will provide improved analysis of key ocean variables, better predictions of episodic events, and 'smart' observing systems in order to improve the evidence base for compliance with European directives and support the UK industrial strategy.

Planned Impact

This project will be of interest and benefit to a wide community, ranging from policy makers to end users of operational forecasts, and industry, underpinning the development of strategies to achieve a healthy marine environment, rendering ecosystems more resilient to climate change and variability, and assisting sustainable exploitation of marine resources.
Policy and Marine Management: Defra, Marine Scotland and Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute AFBI are responsible for implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive in the UK and the establishment of clear environmental targets and monitoring programmes. They will benefit from improved knowledge and predictive skill for key indicators of the state of the marine environment. We will inform the assessment of Good Environmental Status, through demonstrating that data assimilated model products can provide a complete and contiguous information resource. This work will also inform the OSPAR assessment and future advances in the indicators used. Other policy areas that will benefit are marine spatial planning, fisheries policy and environmental assessment for off-shore operations. We will also engage with relevant international actors, e.g. International Council for the Exploration of the Sea; and non-governmental organisations (e.g. WWF), who develop science and advice to support the sustainable use of the oceans. CAMPUS will seek to engage with policy makers, via briefing notes, POSTnotes, or via the Parliamentary & Scientific Committee.
Marine Monitoring strategies: Optimising the use of the UK's high-cost marine observing capability requires integrated network design and cost benefit analysis: CAMPUS will provide understanding of the scales and variability of the shelf sea system in the context of GES indicators and thus advise on the optimal observation network design for monitoring. This will assist the UK Integrated Marine Observing Network (UK-IMON); UK Marine Monitoring and Assessment Strategy (UKMMAS); the UK Marine Science Co-ordination Committee (MSCC). Key stakeholders include Defra, Marine Scotland, UKMO and AFBI.
Operational Ocean forecast: The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) provides regular and systematic reference and monitoring information on the state of the oceans and regional seas, for both policy applications, such as MSFD, businesses and marine operators to exploit commercially. CAMPUS will integrate improved model-data systems into existing CMEMS operational oceanographic simulation and data delivery systems, further providing a template as to how this might be effected in other regions. Key stakeholders include MERCATOR and the UKMO
Industry: Dynamic sampling and truly autonomous vehicles open up the potential for a) new technology developments in the AV industry b) wider applications for monitoring in the energy / offshore industry and c) risk assessment for the aquaculture industry. Key stakeholders include DSTL, the MASSMO consortium and the Scottish aquaculture industry.
Data delivery: A key challenge for encouraging the use of model data products is the ability to make them easily accessible to the full range of stakeholders (e.g. policy, NGO, business, academics, general public). Model and data products will be made accessible via working with BODC, the Marine Environmental Data and Information Network (MEDIN) and international data infrastructures provided by ICES and EMODnet. A public facing web-based GIS data portal will allow users to browse and map data.
Overseas Development Assistance: CAMPUS will provide a template for closely aligning models and observations in the ODA context, for example using models to aid the design of monitoring effort and inform model system configuration. We will explore how this would work in practice in a short desk study, focusing on Living Marine resources in the Bay of Bengal. This project will contribute in particular to UN Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDG14)
 
Description Following initial discussion with Defra Marine and Fisheries Science and Analysis Team, MMO Evidence Team, and members of the Marine and Fisheries Monitoring Steering Group as part of WP1, it was decided that a review and alignment exercise across multiple NERC modelling programmes was needed. This provides a clear line of sight for government users as to how these models can be incorporated into their decision making, and allow CAMPUS to look for opportunities to ground truth existing models that may not previously have been recognised.
First Year Of Impact 2018
Sector Environment
Impact Types Policy & public services

 
Title Boundary conditions for 1D modelling 
Description Extracts ERA5 meteorological data and tidal forcings for any location worldwide, which is required as boundary conditions to the 1D GOTM-ERSEM model. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Delivery of CAMPUS project for the setup of 1D model systems at a range of UK sites. 
 
Title Implementation of GOTM-ERSEM at various locations on UK shelf 
Description A GOTM-ERSEM 1D model has been implemented for: Station E1 in the Western Channel Observatory, the Candyfloss station in the Central Celtic Sea, Liverpool Bay and a station in the North Sea for the time period 2008-2017. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact The models are currently being used to test the impact of meteorological resolution on phytoplankton phenology and assessment of ERSEMs ability to capture inter-annual variability in shelf seas as part of the CAMPUS project. The model setups have already been used and will likely further be used by other researchers to test model developments and process understanding at these data rich sites. 
 
Title Reanalysis and regionalization of the biogeochemistry of the Mediterranean Sea (1998-2014) 
Description We assimilated ocean-colour phytoplankton functional types into a three dimensional physical-biogeochemical model of the Mediterranean Sea, in a reanalysis spanning 1998-2014. Daily and/or monthly outputs were collected in a database (NETCDF files) that is freely available on request to Stefano Ciavatta 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The post-processing of the database led to a novel definition of ecoregions in the Mediterranean Sea, based on the spatial distribution of the phytoplankton community structure and related carbon fluxes. The main purpose of such regionalization is to support Blue Growth in the Mediterranean Sea, and to test analysis tecniques that can be applied in the context of the North West European Shelf-Seas. These findings are the object of a manuscript submitted to Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, by Ciavatta et al. 
 
Description CAMPUS project website 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Website created to highlight the project, its aims and objectives. The website has helped to engage with target user audiences and will be regularly updated throughout the project.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.campus-marine.org
 
Description Inited talk at the Mercator Ocean International Marine Data Assimilation workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Being a recognized expert in marine biogeochemical data assimilation, I was invited to give a talk entitled "State-of-the-art of biogeochemical data assimilation" at the international workshop organized by Mercator Ocean International (which is the organization implementing the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service in the framework of a delegation agreement with the European Union), in Toulouse, France, 5-6 September 2018 (https://www.mercator-ocean.fr/en/news/marine-data-assimilation/).
The workshop objective was to set the scene for creating a long-term European infrastructure in marine data assimilation.
The works of the workshop were reported in a document that has the aim to support the definition of a strategy for the development of Marine Data Assimilation in Europe.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.mercator-ocean.fr/en/news/marine-data-assimilation/
 
Description Oral presentation at the ESA's workshop "Atlantic from space", Southampton, UK, 23-25 January 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I gave a talk entitled "Decadal reanalysis of biogeochemical indicators and fluxes in the North East Atlantic ecosystem" at the ESA's workshop "Atlantic from space", Southampton, UK, 23-25 January 2019. This talk provide my expert contribution to the objective of the workshop, which was to assess the opportunities for Atlantic region focussed Earth Observation research and development, downstream activities and Information and communications technology (ICT) evolution, which may be the basis for future ESA investments to address some of the key information needs of this important area.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://eo4society.esa.int/event/atlantic-from-space/