Half a degree Additional warming: Prognosis and Projected Impacts on Health (HAPPI-Health)
Lead Research Organisation:
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Department Name: Public Health and Policy
Abstract
The most recent Lancet Commissions on climate change and health concluded that "Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century". Here, we specifically consider the thermal-health component of the future climate-health burden in an attempt to estimate, for the first time, the number of temperature related deaths under future climate change in developing regions of the world. This number is surprisingly hard to calculate even with large error bars. Aside from the uncertainties in climate projections, the relationship between heat stress and human health varies significantly between countries, and even between cities within the same country. Estimates have been made on a regional scale in some developed countries. For instance, in the UK, a ~250% increase in heat related mortality by the year 2050 was estimated from an annual baseline of ~2000 current deaths (Hajat et al, 2014). This proposal aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of extreme temperatures and associated temperature-related mortality in all regions of the globe, including previously avoided regions such as developing nations, by characterising the uncertainties in different methods of climate change projections, mechanisms driving the extremes, and their relationship to the temperature-health burden at the city level.
Specifically, for future climate we consider Paris Agreement climate scenarios. The Paris Agreement aims to limit globally averaged temperatures to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue ambitions to limit it to 1.5C. But this aim is currently supported by rather thin scientific evidence (James et al, 2016), in particular with respect to relative risks of high-impact extreme weather events. Sea level rise aside, the impacts of a global warming of 1.5C, and the impacts avoided by stabilising temperatures at 1.5 instead of 2C, will be dominated, in most regions of the world, by changing risks of extreme weather events, hence the relevance of our proposed research. Fischer & Knutti (2015) estimate that, on a global average, the occurrence of heat extremes doubles between 1.5 & 2C warming. For individual regions, large-scale averages do not provide an adequate basis for decisions on risk prevention and resilience. Changes in atmospheric dynamics and factors other than greenhouse gases also affect heat and rainfall extremes, and, locally, may yield changes in risk that are either greater than or even opposed to the global average (Schaller et al, 2016).
The Paris Agreement calls for research into the impacts of a given level of warming, not the impacts of a scenario that is expected, at some probability, to yield a given level of warming. This requires a new approach to estimate future climate which is complementary to the scenario-driven experiments that provide the core of CMIP5 and CMIP6. To address this, we employ the newly developed Half a degree Additional warming; Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI; Mitchell et al, 2016a) scenario set - a set of targeted experiments specifically designed to address questions related to the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5C and 2C global averaged warming anomalies.
The Paris Agreement is a major step forward for the international climate community, and will play a large role in the next IPCC report (AR6) and well beyond. This proposal brings together experts in climate (Mitchell and Allen) and health (Gasparrini), to provide a comprehensive analysis of one the key impacts of climate change, temperature related mortality. It provides an assessment of what drives extreme temperatures, where the climate change signals are largest, and how these impact on the regional- and city-level health burden around the world.
Specifically, for future climate we consider Paris Agreement climate scenarios. The Paris Agreement aims to limit globally averaged temperatures to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue ambitions to limit it to 1.5C. But this aim is currently supported by rather thin scientific evidence (James et al, 2016), in particular with respect to relative risks of high-impact extreme weather events. Sea level rise aside, the impacts of a global warming of 1.5C, and the impacts avoided by stabilising temperatures at 1.5 instead of 2C, will be dominated, in most regions of the world, by changing risks of extreme weather events, hence the relevance of our proposed research. Fischer & Knutti (2015) estimate that, on a global average, the occurrence of heat extremes doubles between 1.5 & 2C warming. For individual regions, large-scale averages do not provide an adequate basis for decisions on risk prevention and resilience. Changes in atmospheric dynamics and factors other than greenhouse gases also affect heat and rainfall extremes, and, locally, may yield changes in risk that are either greater than or even opposed to the global average (Schaller et al, 2016).
The Paris Agreement calls for research into the impacts of a given level of warming, not the impacts of a scenario that is expected, at some probability, to yield a given level of warming. This requires a new approach to estimate future climate which is complementary to the scenario-driven experiments that provide the core of CMIP5 and CMIP6. To address this, we employ the newly developed Half a degree Additional warming; Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI; Mitchell et al, 2016a) scenario set - a set of targeted experiments specifically designed to address questions related to the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5C and 2C global averaged warming anomalies.
The Paris Agreement is a major step forward for the international climate community, and will play a large role in the next IPCC report (AR6) and well beyond. This proposal brings together experts in climate (Mitchell and Allen) and health (Gasparrini), to provide a comprehensive analysis of one the key impacts of climate change, temperature related mortality. It provides an assessment of what drives extreme temperatures, where the climate change signals are largest, and how these impact on the regional- and city-level health burden around the world.
Planned Impact
Policy makers
One of the most important impacts of climate change is the possibility of enhanced extreme weather events. Many aspects of political decision making involve interpreting the scientific evidence presented, this spans the national levels, to the city governance. For instance makes decisions on city preparedness during heat waves. As such, reliable estimates of projected climate are required in order to accurately inform these decisions. Research from this project will directly contribute to the reliability of projected extreme weather risk under 1.5C and 2C scenarios and therefore aid in policy discussions, especially at the city level, where temperature-mortality impacts become more important. Note that it is imperative for our research on 1.5 v. 2C commences immediately to ensure that papers are submitted in time for the IPCC AR6 report, for which the publication deadline is likely to be October 2020. Work beyond that scope will also be highly relevant for other major reports, for instance the Lancet Commission on Climate Change, as well as annual statements made by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Though these reports, and though annual reports from our project partners, the Met Office and Public Health England, our science has the potential to influence policy at a range of levels.
The public
Extreme events are currently at the forefront of public concern according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), while coverage of potential links to climate change and the impacts have increased in the recent years. Examples include the recent long lived Californian drought, widespread flooding in the southern UK, and bleaching of coral off the coast of Australia, all prompting huge media coverage. By increasing our understanding of the link between heat and mortality, and how this might change in the future, this project will clearly be attractive to media outlets and more generally the public community. For instance, a precursor paper to this project (Mitchell et al, 2016, Environmental Research Letters), approaching this question from a climate-attribution point of view, experienced high-levels of coverage both in academic journals (e.g. Brown, 2016, Nature Climate Change), and in the media (e.g. The Guardian, the Daily Mail, Carbon Brief). We will maximise this through inviting new, and previously established contacts from the media, academia and policy circles to an end of project summary meeting, where the project results will be presented and more widely disseminated, including discussions on implications for the different sectors.
One of the most important impacts of climate change is the possibility of enhanced extreme weather events. Many aspects of political decision making involve interpreting the scientific evidence presented, this spans the national levels, to the city governance. For instance makes decisions on city preparedness during heat waves. As such, reliable estimates of projected climate are required in order to accurately inform these decisions. Research from this project will directly contribute to the reliability of projected extreme weather risk under 1.5C and 2C scenarios and therefore aid in policy discussions, especially at the city level, where temperature-mortality impacts become more important. Note that it is imperative for our research on 1.5 v. 2C commences immediately to ensure that papers are submitted in time for the IPCC AR6 report, for which the publication deadline is likely to be October 2020. Work beyond that scope will also be highly relevant for other major reports, for instance the Lancet Commission on Climate Change, as well as annual statements made by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Though these reports, and though annual reports from our project partners, the Met Office and Public Health England, our science has the potential to influence policy at a range of levels.
The public
Extreme events are currently at the forefront of public concern according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), while coverage of potential links to climate change and the impacts have increased in the recent years. Examples include the recent long lived Californian drought, widespread flooding in the southern UK, and bleaching of coral off the coast of Australia, all prompting huge media coverage. By increasing our understanding of the link between heat and mortality, and how this might change in the future, this project will clearly be attractive to media outlets and more generally the public community. For instance, a precursor paper to this project (Mitchell et al, 2016, Environmental Research Letters), approaching this question from a climate-attribution point of view, experienced high-levels of coverage both in academic journals (e.g. Brown, 2016, Nature Climate Change), and in the media (e.g. The Guardian, the Daily Mail, Carbon Brief). We will maximise this through inviting new, and previously established contacts from the media, academia and policy circles to an end of project summary meeting, where the project results will be presented and more widely disseminated, including discussions on implications for the different sectors.
Organisations
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (Lead Research Organisation)
- HARVARD UNIVERSITY (Collaboration)
- Columbia University (Collaboration)
- Ben-Gurion University of the Negev (Collaboration)
- Swiss Tropical & Public Health Institute (Collaboration)
- University of Ottawa (Collaboration)
- European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting ECMWF (Collaboration)
- University of Hasselt (Collaboration)
- Public Health Agency of Canada (Collaboration)
- Lazio Regional Health Service (Collaboration)
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) (Collaboration)
- Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU Munich) (Collaboration)
- European Space Agency (Collaboration)
- Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (Collaboration)
- University of Leuven (Collaboration)
Publications
Alahmad B
(2023)
Associations Between Extreme Temperatures and Cardiovascular Cause-Specific Mortality: Results From 27 Countries.
in Circulation
Analitis A
(2018)
Synergistic Effects of Ambient Temperature and Air Pollution on Health in Europe: Results from the PHASE Project
in International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Armstrong B
(2019)
Erratum: "The Role of Humidity in Associations of High Temperature with Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicity Study".
in Environmental health perspectives
Armstrong B
(2019)
The Role of Humidity in Associations of High Temperature with Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicity Study
in Environmental Health Perspectives
Chen G
(2021)
Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations.
in The Lancet. Planetary health
Chen K
(2021)
Ambient carbon monoxide and daily mortality: a global time-series study in 337 cities.
in The Lancet. Planetary health
Choi HM
(2022)
Effect modification of greenness on the association between heat and mortality: A multi-city multi-country study.
in EBioMedicine
Corcuera Hotz I
(2020)
The Effects of Temperature on Accident and Emergency Department Attendances in London: A Time-Series Regression Analysis.
in International journal of environmental research and public health
De Schrijver E
(2023)
Exploring vulnerability to heat and cold across urban and rural populations in Switzerland
in Environmental Research: Health
Description | Modern methods for time series analysis |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Description | Temperature, climate change and health |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Description | Use of DLNMs in temperature-health studies |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
URL | http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/myncbi/collections/public/10kxh85C77hGm5PFkch6qfQ/ |
Title | Personal website |
Description | The website provides access to the outputs of my research, such as pdf versions and supplemental material of the published papers, summaries and updates of my research activity, and other information. In particular, scripts and data for reproducing the results of methodological or substantive papers are made available thorough the website. |
Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
Year Produced | 2012 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The website is visited by 5-10 visitors each day. They download materials such as articles, scripts and data. |
URL | http://www.ag-myresearch.com/ |
Title | R package mvmeta |
Description | The package contains functions and data examples for running extended meta-analytical models. It is provided within the free software R and downloadable from internet through the R program. |
Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The software implementation in a free program facilitates the use of extended meta-analytical techniques in the research community. Also, the package, developed in parallel with the statistical framework, offer a vehicle to promote the methodology and its use among non-statisticians. |
URL | http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/mixmeta/index.html |
Title | R package mvmeta |
Description | The package contains functions and data examples for running univariate or multivariate meta-analysis and meta-regression. It is provided within the free software R and downloadable from internet through the R program. |
Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
Year Produced | 2011 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The software implementation in a free program facilitates the use of multivariate meta-analytical techniques in the research community. Also, the package, developed in parallel with the statistical framework, offer a vehicle to promote the methodology and its use among non-statisticians. |
URL | http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/mvmeta/index.html |
Title | Personal website |
Description | The website provides access to the outputs of my research, such as pdf versions and supplemental material of the published papers, summaries and updates of my research activity, and other information. In particular, scripts and data for reproducing the results of methodological or substantive papers are made available thorough the website. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2012 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The website is visited by 5-10 visitors each day. They download materials such as articles, scripts and data. |
URL | http://www.ag-myresearch.com/ |
Title | R package mixmeta |
Description | The package contains functions and data examples for running extended meta-analytical models. It is provided within the free software R and downloadable from internet through the R program. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The software implementation in a free program facilitates the use of extended meta-analytical techniques in the research community. Also, the package, developed in parallel with the statistical framework, offer a vehicle to promote the methodology and its use among non-statisticians. Impact on application of meta-analytical approaches, certified by the use of the technique in several peer-reviewed articles by different research groups: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/myncbi/collections/public/10kxh85C77hGm5PFkch6qfQ/ |
URL | http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/mixmeta/index.html |
Title | R package mvmeta |
Description | The package contains functions and data examples for running univariate or multivariate meta-analysis and meta-regression. It is provided within the free software R and downloadable from internet through the R program. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2011 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The software implementation in a free program facilitates the use of multivariate meta-analytical techniques in the research community. Also, the package, developed in parallel with the statistical framework, offer a vehicle to promote the methodology and its use among non-statisticians. Impact on application of meta-analytical approaches, certified by the use of the technique in several peer-reviewed articles by different research groups: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/myncbi/collections/public/10kxh85C77hGm5PFkch6qfQ/ |
URL | http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/mvmeta/index.html |
Title | Temperature-related mortality exposure-response functions for 854 cities in Europe |
Description | This repository contains data to reconstruct the exposure-response functions (ERF) of temperature-related mortality by five 5 age groups in 854 cities in Europe. These ERFs have been derived in the study by Masselot et al. 2023, Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe, The Lancet Planetary Health (https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00023-2). An associated semi-replicable GitHub repository is available at https://github.com/PierreMasselot/Paper--2023--LancetPH--EUcityTRM to reproduce part of the analysis and the full results, as well as to provide technical details on the derivation of these ERFs. Note: This updated version contains revised data after the correction of an error in the code related to the computation of the age-specific baseline mortality rates. Details about the error can be found in the GitHub repository linked above. This correction only affects the figures of excess mortality (found in the `results.zip` archive) while the ERFs are negligibly affected. The originally published results can be found in V1.0.0 of this repository. Extraction of the ERFs The ERFs are provided as coefficients of B-spline functions that can be used to reconstruct the ERFs, along with variance-covariance matrices and quantiles from location-specific temperature distributions. The parametrisation associated with these coefficients is a quadratic B-spline (degree 2), with knots located at the 10th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the temperature distribution. In R, the associated basis can be constructed using the dlnm package, with a temperature series x, as follows: library(dlnm) basis <- onebasis(x, fun = "bs", degree = 2, knots = quantile(x, c(.1, .75, .9))) The main files associated with ERFs are the following: coefs.csv: The B-spline coefficients for each age group and city. vcov.csv: The variance-covariance matrix of the coefficients in each city and age group. It is provided here as the lower triangular part of the matrix with names indicating the position of each value (v[row][column]). In R, assuming x is a row of this file, the matrix can be reconstructed using xpndMat(x) after loading the mixmeta package. coef_simu.csv: 1000 simulations from the distribution of each city and age-specific coefficients. Useful to derive empirical confidence intervals for derived measures such as excess deaths or attributable fractions. tmean_distribution.csv: The city-specific temperature percentiles representing the distribution of the data derived from the ERA5-Land dataset. Health impact assessment results results.zip: A summary of the results from the health impact assessment reported in the analysis. The dataset includes several impact measures provided in files representing different geographical levels, including city, country and regional level. Different files are also provided for age-group specific or all age results. Additional data We provide additional data that are useful to reproduce or extend the analysis. Please note that due to restrictive data-sharing agreements for the mortality series, only a part of the code is reproducible. See the associated GitHub repository for more details. metadata.csv: City-specific metadata used to create the ERFs and perform the health impact assessment. additional_data.zip: contains further data used to replicate the second stage of the analysis and the final health impact assessment. It includes the full city-level daily temperature series (era5series.csv), the detail of extracted metadata for available years (metacityyear.csv), a description of the city-level characteristics (metadesc.csv), and the first-stage ERF coefficients for all available city and age-groups (stage1res.csv). Additionally, the file meta-model.RData contains R object defining the second-stage model that can be used to predict new ERFs. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
URL | https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.7672107 |
Description | Methodological work on distributed lag linear and non-linear models |
Organisation | London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Leading the development of the methodological research, leading on writing up of peer-review publications |
Collaborator Contribution | Technical contribution on statistical methods and software programs, intellectual contribution to publications |
Impact | Peer-reviewed publications in international journals and oral presentations in international congresses |
Start Year | 2014 |
Description | Methodological work on distributed lag linear and non-linear models |
Organisation | Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU Munich) |
Department | Department of Neurology |
Country | Germany |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Leading the development of the methodological research, leading on writing up of peer-review publications |
Collaborator Contribution | Technical contribution on statistical methods and software programs, intellectual contribution to publications |
Impact | Peer-reviewed publications in international journals and oral presentations in international congresses |
Start Year | 2014 |
Description | Modelling health effects of environmental exposures |
Organisation | Children's Hospital of Philadelphia |
Department | Center for Pediatric Clinical Effectiveness |
Country | United States |
Sector | Hospitals |
PI Contribution | Technical contribution on statistical methods and software programs, intellectual contribution to publications |
Collaborator Contribution | Leading the development of the methodological research, leading on writing up of peer-review publications |
Impact | Peer-reviewed publications in international journals and oral presentations in international congresses |
Start Year | 2012 |
Description | Modelling health effects of environmental exposures |
Organisation | Columbia University |
Department | Department of Environmental Health Sciences |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Technical contribution on statistical methods and software programs, intellectual contribution to publications |
Collaborator Contribution | Leading the development of the methodological research, leading on writing up of peer-review publications |
Impact | Peer-reviewed publications in international journals and oral presentations in international congresses |
Start Year | 2012 |
Description | Modelling health effects of environmental exposures |
Organisation | Harvard University |
Department | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Technical contribution on statistical methods and software programs, intellectual contribution to publications |
Collaborator Contribution | Leading the development of the methodological research, leading on writing up of peer-review publications |
Impact | Peer-reviewed publications in international journals and oral presentations in international congresses |
Start Year | 2012 |
Description | Modelling health effects of environmental exposures |
Organisation | Public Health Agency of Canada |
Department | Canada Prenatal Nutrition Program |
Country | Canada |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Technical contribution on statistical methods and software programs, intellectual contribution to publications |
Collaborator Contribution | Leading the development of the methodological research, leading on writing up of peer-review publications |
Impact | Peer-reviewed publications in international journals and oral presentations in international congresses |
Start Year | 2012 |
Description | Modelling health effects of environmental exposures |
Organisation | University of Hasselt |
Department | Centre for Environmental Sciences |
Country | Belgium |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Technical contribution on statistical methods and software programs, intellectual contribution to publications |
Collaborator Contribution | Leading the development of the methodological research, leading on writing up of peer-review publications |
Impact | Peer-reviewed publications in international journals and oral presentations in international congresses |
Start Year | 2012 |
Description | Modelling health effects of environmental exposures |
Organisation | University of Leuven |
Department | Department of Public Health and Primary Care |
Country | Belgium |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Technical contribution on statistical methods and software programs, intellectual contribution to publications |
Collaborator Contribution | Leading the development of the methodological research, leading on writing up of peer-review publications |
Impact | Peer-reviewed publications in international journals and oral presentations in international congresses |
Start Year | 2012 |
Description | Modelling health effects of environmental exposures |
Organisation | University of Ottawa |
Country | Canada |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Technical contribution on statistical methods and software programs, intellectual contribution to publications |
Collaborator Contribution | Leading the development of the methodological research, leading on writing up of peer-review publications |
Impact | Peer-reviewed publications in international journals and oral presentations in international congresses |
Start Year | 2012 |
Description | Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network |
Organisation | Harvard University |
Department | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | I have established and currently coordinating an international collaboration of more than 80 researchers from more than 40 countries, working on a program aiming to produce epidemiological evidence on associations between environmental stressors, climate, and health (http://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk/). The list of partners is long: see http://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk/participants/. |
Collaborator Contribution | It is collaborative network that has produced already important research outputs (http://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk/publications/). |
Impact | http://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk/publications/ |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | Spatio-temporal modelling of environmental exposures |
Organisation | Ben-Gurion University of the Negev |
Country | Israel |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Established the collaboration with several experts and institutions for the collection of data resources and development/application of machine learning methods to reconstruct high-resolution spatio-temporal maps of environmental exposures in the UK |
Collaborator Contribution | Data provision, technical assistance, expertise in modelling |
Impact | Multidisciplinary: remote sensing satellite products, re-analysis data repositories, machine learning, geospatial methods, epidemiology |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | Spatio-temporal modelling of environmental exposures |
Organisation | European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting ECMWF |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Established the collaboration with several experts and institutions for the collection of data resources and development/application of machine learning methods to reconstruct high-resolution spatio-temporal maps of environmental exposures in the UK |
Collaborator Contribution | Data provision, technical assistance, expertise in modelling |
Impact | Multidisciplinary: remote sensing satellite products, re-analysis data repositories, machine learning, geospatial methods, epidemiology |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | Spatio-temporal modelling of environmental exposures |
Organisation | European Space Agency |
Country | France |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Established the collaboration with several experts and institutions for the collection of data resources and development/application of machine learning methods to reconstruct high-resolution spatio-temporal maps of environmental exposures in the UK |
Collaborator Contribution | Data provision, technical assistance, expertise in modelling |
Impact | Multidisciplinary: remote sensing satellite products, re-analysis data repositories, machine learning, geospatial methods, epidemiology |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | Spatio-temporal modelling of environmental exposures |
Organisation | Lazio Regional Health Service |
Country | Italy |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Established the collaboration with several experts and institutions for the collection of data resources and development/application of machine learning methods to reconstruct high-resolution spatio-temporal maps of environmental exposures in the UK |
Collaborator Contribution | Data provision, technical assistance, expertise in modelling |
Impact | Multidisciplinary: remote sensing satellite products, re-analysis data repositories, machine learning, geospatial methods, epidemiology |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | Spatio-temporal modelling of environmental exposures |
Organisation | Swiss Tropical & Public Health Institute |
Country | Switzerland |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Established the collaboration with several experts and institutions for the collection of data resources and development/application of machine learning methods to reconstruct high-resolution spatio-temporal maps of environmental exposures in the UK |
Collaborator Contribution | Data provision, technical assistance, expertise in modelling |
Impact | Multidisciplinary: remote sensing satellite products, re-analysis data repositories, machine learning, geospatial methods, epidemiology |
Start Year | 2018 |
Title | R package dlnm |
Description | The package contains functions and data examples for running distributed lag non-linear models. The software is freely downloadable by everybody, and it is licensed under the GNU General Public License, meaning that, under appropriate reference and the assurance that novel material is provided under the same licence terms, it can be modified and extended by other researchers. |
IP Reference | |
Protection | Copyrighted (e.g. software) |
Year Protection Granted | 2009 |
Licensed | Yes |
Impact | The software implementation in a free program has boosted the use of DLNMs among researchers in different countries, primarily (but not only) for studies on temperature and air pollution. Also, the package, developed in parallel with the statistical framework, offer a vehicle to promote the methodology and its use among non-statisticians. |
Title | R package mixmeta |
Description | The package contains functions and data examples for running extended meta-analytical models. The software is freely downloadable by everybody, and it is licensed under the GNU General Public License, meaning that, under appropriate reference and the assurance that novel material is provided under the same licence terms, it can be modified and extended by other researchers. |
IP Reference | |
Protection | Copyrighted (e.g. software) |
Year Protection Granted | 2019 |
Licensed | Yes |
Impact | The software implementation in a free program facilitates the use of extended meta-analytical techniques in the research community. Also, the package, developed in parallel with the statistical framework, offer a vehicle to promote the methodology and its use among non-statisticians. |
Title | R package mvmeta |
Description | The package contains functions and data examples for running univariate or multivariate meta-analysis and meta-regression. The software is freely downloadable by everybody, and it is licensed under the GNU General Public License, meaning that, under appropriate reference and the assurance that novel material is provided under the same licence terms, it can be modified and extended by other researchers. |
IP Reference | |
Protection | Copyrighted (e.g. software) |
Year Protection Granted | 2011 |
Licensed | Yes |
Impact | The software implementation in a free program facilitates the use of multivariate meta-analytical techniques in the research community. Also, the package, developed in parallel with the statistical framework, offer a vehicle to promote the methodology and its use among non-statisticians. |
Title | R package dlnm |
Description | The package contains functions and data examples for running distributed lag non-linear models. It is provided within the free software R and downloadable from internet through the R program. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2009 |
Open Source License? | Yes |
Impact | The software implementation in a free program has boosted the use of DLNMs among researchers in different countries, primarily (but not only) for studies on temperature and air pollution. Also, the package, developed in parallel with the statistical framework, offer a vehicle to promote the methodology and its use among non-statisticians. |
URL | http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/dlnm/index.html |
Title | R package mixmeta |
Description | The package contains functions and data examples for running extended meta-analytical models. It is provided within the free software R and downloadable from internet through the R program. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Open Source License? | Yes |
Impact | The software implementation in a free program facilitates the use of extended meta-analytical techniques in the research community. Also, the package, developed in parallel with the statistical framework, offer a vehicle to promote the methodology and its use among non-statisticians. |
URL | http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/mixmeta/index.html |
Title | R package mvmeta |
Description | The package contains functions and data examples for running univariate or multivariate meta-analysis and meta-regression. It is provided within the free software R and downloadable from internet through the R program. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2011 |
Open Source License? | Yes |
Impact | The software implementation in a free program facilitates the use of multivariate meta-analytical techniques in the research community. Also, the package, developed in parallel with the statistical framework, offer a vehicle to promote the methodology and its use among non-statisticians. |
URL | http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/mvmeta/index.html |
Description | Centre for Statistical Modelling (CSM) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | Yes |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Centre of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Seminars and other activities are usually attended by 50-100 researchers, PhD or MSc students |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020 |
URL | http://csm.lshtm.ac.uk/ |
Description | Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Centre of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019,2020 |
URL | https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/research/centres/centre-climate-change-and-planetary-health |
Description | Invited talks |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Series of invited talks and workshops in well-known research institutions and companies, such as Harvard School of Public Health, Karolinska Institute, Royal Statistical Society, The Children Hospital of Philadelphia, Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), University of Pennsylvania, Ludwig Maximilians University, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Open University, St George's University of London, IQVIA, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Emory University |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020 |