Keeping the Midlands Engine running: a blueprint for next generation weather and climate services for transport
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Birmingham
Department Name: Sch of Geography, Earth & Env Sciences
Abstract
Reliable and resilient transport systems are crucial for sustaining national productivity and competiveness. They enable the movement of goods in increasingly complex and time-sensitive supply chains throughout the regions of the UK and globally via international gateways such as airports. As such, transport is a key feature of the Industrial Strategy's 'Upgrading Infrastructure' pillar. However, a crucial determinant of the reliability of transport which is not addressed in the Strategy is the impact of severe weather, which can cause damage to critical assets and result in widespread disruption and economic and social consequences for businesses and the travelling public. Importantly, the complex nature of the transport system with its many different components, interdependencies and critical locations poses a uniquely challenging environment for the infrastructure mangers and meteorological service providers who are tasked with reducing the disruptive impact of weather.
This project aims to formulate a blueprint for the next generation of weather services for the transport sector, which can be used to make targeted proactive decisions during extreme events to keep the system functioning. It will make use of the Met Office's recently upgraded High Performance Computing (HPC) capabilities to produce asset-specific forecasts, based on a deep understanding of how these assets react to weather. Moreover, it seeks to promote the concept of Dynamic Asset Criticality (DAC), to prioritise assets according to their forecasted risk of failure in a given event and the potential consequences of that failure on the wider system. This will be developed in the case study region of the Midlands Engine, a £230 billion economy that forms part of the Industrial Strategy. It is the national leader in advanced manufacturing, a sector which relies on resilient supply chains. The project has the following work packages:
Work package 1: Creation of an Innovation Ecosystem for weather-related transport resilience. Unique, comprehensive compendia of the quantitative relationships between weather and asset failure, asset interdependencies and network criticality for the Midlands Engine will be collated. This will be in the form of collaborative online resources, where expert guidance from infrastructure managers and transport operators will supplement existing academic literature and bespoke analysis of priority research gaps. These stakeholder community resources are designed to exist and evolve beyond the duration of the project, creating a legacy of impact.
Work package 2: Developing and demonstrating a targeted approach for prioritising transport resilience responses during extreme weather events. Here the asset vulnerability information from work package 1 will inform a new suite of bespoke asset-focused weather forecasts and risk warnings utilising the Met Office's cutting-edge HPC capabilities. These will be created for a number of case studies centred on critical locations in the Midlands Engine transport network. The output of the DAC approach will be evaluated for severe weather events in a simulated trial environment with operational staff from transport operators and infrastructure managers to assess the implications of the approach for event management.
Work package 3: Formulating the blueprint for next generation weather services for transport. A White Paper will be created based on the findings and recommendations emanating from work packages 1 and 2, as well as a roadmapping workshop on anticipated developments in the transport sector and their implications for the future provision of transport-focussed weather services.
Dr David Jaroszweski is an internationally recognised, influential early career researcher in weather and climate-related transport resilience. He has demonstrated strong intellectual leadership at the interface of industry and academia which has been recognised at the highest international level.
This project aims to formulate a blueprint for the next generation of weather services for the transport sector, which can be used to make targeted proactive decisions during extreme events to keep the system functioning. It will make use of the Met Office's recently upgraded High Performance Computing (HPC) capabilities to produce asset-specific forecasts, based on a deep understanding of how these assets react to weather. Moreover, it seeks to promote the concept of Dynamic Asset Criticality (DAC), to prioritise assets according to their forecasted risk of failure in a given event and the potential consequences of that failure on the wider system. This will be developed in the case study region of the Midlands Engine, a £230 billion economy that forms part of the Industrial Strategy. It is the national leader in advanced manufacturing, a sector which relies on resilient supply chains. The project has the following work packages:
Work package 1: Creation of an Innovation Ecosystem for weather-related transport resilience. Unique, comprehensive compendia of the quantitative relationships between weather and asset failure, asset interdependencies and network criticality for the Midlands Engine will be collated. This will be in the form of collaborative online resources, where expert guidance from infrastructure managers and transport operators will supplement existing academic literature and bespoke analysis of priority research gaps. These stakeholder community resources are designed to exist and evolve beyond the duration of the project, creating a legacy of impact.
Work package 2: Developing and demonstrating a targeted approach for prioritising transport resilience responses during extreme weather events. Here the asset vulnerability information from work package 1 will inform a new suite of bespoke asset-focused weather forecasts and risk warnings utilising the Met Office's cutting-edge HPC capabilities. These will be created for a number of case studies centred on critical locations in the Midlands Engine transport network. The output of the DAC approach will be evaluated for severe weather events in a simulated trial environment with operational staff from transport operators and infrastructure managers to assess the implications of the approach for event management.
Work package 3: Formulating the blueprint for next generation weather services for transport. A White Paper will be created based on the findings and recommendations emanating from work packages 1 and 2, as well as a roadmapping workshop on anticipated developments in the transport sector and their implications for the future provision of transport-focussed weather services.
Dr David Jaroszweski is an internationally recognised, influential early career researcher in weather and climate-related transport resilience. He has demonstrated strong intellectual leadership at the interface of industry and academia which has been recognised at the highest international level.
People |
ORCID iD |
David Jaroszweski (Principal Investigator / Fellow) |
Publications
Pregnolato M
(2020)
Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment
Description | This fellowship has developed a range of approaches to assess the impact of weather and potential impact of climate change on transport systems, covering road, rail and aviation and interdependencies with the wider infrastructure system. The project has explored specific case studies of key weather-related disruption events and locations. It has also utilised data from a range of industry partners across the transport modes to further develop the approach for prioritising transport resilience responses during extreme events initialised in grant NE/N012941/1, "Weather-induced single point of failure assessment methodology for railways". The fellowship has also led to further opportunities in the wider infrastructure and climate risk landscape, through leadership of the infrastructure chapter of the Third UK Climate Risk Assessment. |
Exploitation Route | The results and approaches developed have clear relevance for transport network decision making on a day-to-day basis, as well as longer-term planning. Specific applications emerging from the project include the management of heat-related rail buckling risk on the railways, forecasting of low-adhesion (caused by leaves on the line) during the autumn, management of interdependencies and weather-related cascading failures between the electricity transmission network and railways, weather-related road accidents and long-term planning of airport infrastructure. The ultimate aim will be the inclusion of these approaches in relevant transport sector actors' extreme weather response and climate change adaptation processes and will be pursued through further engagement with the stakeholder community. |
Sectors | Transport |
Description | This fellowship has led to the opportunity to be appointed lead author for the infrastructure chapter of the Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. In this I coordinated the assessment of evidence of climate risks and adaptation in the UK's infrastructure sector, including transport, energy, water resources and ICT. The assessment is currently being used by Government to guide the prioritisation of efforts in the UK's Third National Adaptation Programme (2023-2028). |
First Year Of Impact | 2021 |
Sector | Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Energy,Environment,Transport |
Description | Lead author for Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
Description | BBC Midlands Today - UN Climate Action Summit |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Interviewed as part of a piece on BBC Midlands Today in relation to the UN Climate Action Summit (September 2019). The piece discussed how climate change will impact the Midlands region. My contribution focussed on work on understanding the impact of high temperatures on rail buckling carried out in the fellowship. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Presentation to Infrastructure Operators Adaptation Forum |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presentation of the infrastructure chapter of the Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | UK Climate Risk - State of the Nation webinar |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Presentation of the infrastructure chapter of the Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Reached a wide audience of policymakers, industry professionals and academics. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |