Pathways Of Dispersal for Cholera And Solution Tools (PODCAST)

Lead Research Organisation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Department Name: Remote Sensing Group

Abstract

Cholera is a waterborne epidemic disease in humans. It is a major public health threat, affecting 1.3 to 4 million people each year worldwide, with 21,000 to 143,000 reported fatalities. Outbreaks are caused by the bacterial pathogen Vibrio cholerae, found in many coastal, estuarine, and brackish waters around the world. The origin of the current pandemic of cholera was a single population of pathogens in the north-eastern Indian Ocean basin, which spread globally, in several transmission events. Transmission pathways include direct human-to-human infection, and human-environment interactions, including ingestion of contaminated water, aggravated by emerging antimicrobial resistance through release of antibiotics into the environment. Vibrio pathogens are found as free-floating forms or attached to living (plankton) and non-living (sediment) hosts. They flourish under warm temperature, moderate salinity and turbidity. The major environmental reservoirs of Vibrios, their connectivity, how they might be affected by climate variability and the associated impact on human health remain largely unknown. There is a clear imperative to reduce human risk from cholera bacteria to meet Global Goals related to 3-human health, 6-water quality, 13-climate and 14-life under water.
Focusing on the northern Indian Ocean, currently a hotbed of outbreaks of cholera and related diseases, the PODCAST project will pinpoint the impact of large-scale oceanic and climatic processes on the transmission dynamics of cholera (Goals 6, 13, 14) and their impact on public health (Goal 3). Scientists from India, Japan and the UK will work collaboratively to: 1) identify environmental reservoirs of Vibrio cholerae as well as possible advective transport via ocean currents and long-distance transmission routes for cholera outbreaks; 2) characterise the influence of climate perturbations on cholera outbreaks and environmental transmission routes; 3) build an epidemiological model integrating environmental and human-to-human transmission routes; and 4) produce forecasts for cholera outbreaks in coastal regions.
The research will be developed in consultation with end-users, including local communities relying on water resources for livelihoods, income generation and recreation; governments; health services; intergovernmental agencies; and policy makers for whom we will provide tools and Vibrio disease risk map products that will support evidence-based policy decisions and actions to achieve Global Goals.
The work will be organised in four Work Packages. WP1 (Abdulaziz-India; Sathyendranath-UK) will generate new in situ observations of biophysical variables (including Vibrio pathogens and antibiotics) at selected sites in open-ocean and coastal locations; and process satellite data (ocean-colour, salinity, altimeter and temperature) over entire northern Indian Ocean. WP2 (Platt-UK; Clark-UK; Nonaka-Japan), focussing on models and using data from WP1, will develop an epidemiological model including components of human-to-human and environmental transmission routes of cholera outbreaks; a particle-tracking model to study sources and connectivity between environmental reservoirs of Vibrios; and a climate-variability model to generate past and future indices of large-scale patterns of climate variability. WP3 (Racault-UK), based on the influence of environmental conditions, regional circulation and climate variability on risks of outbreaks at coastal locations in the northern Indian Ocean (WP 2), will focus on producing a cholera-outbreak prediction system for coastal regions of the northern Indian Ocean. The user-engagement, policy information and practice interventions will be addressed in WP4 (Menon-India; George-India) in which we will engage with local communities, policy-makers, and intergovernmental agencies (WHO, IPCC) to identify needs, assess benefits, best practices and uptake of results from PODCAST to reduce risks of Vibrio diseases to public health.

Planned Impact

Detailed descriptions of the approaches that will be taken to achieve Impact, along with identified beneficiaries from the public, practitioners, third sector, and policy communities are provided in the Pathways to Impact. Here, we explain the Impact that we will generate in relation to the official Targets of the UN's Sustainable Development Goals addressed in the project and to the international dimensions of the consortium:

Goal 3-Health-Targets
Improve knowledge on the diversity and antimicrobial resistance patterns of the Vibrio cholerae pathogens in the northern Indian Ocean: the information will be useful for the health services to help provide the most adapted and efficient treatment for the affected local populations, and to increase chances of recovery.
Improve surveillance systems and strengthen capacity of India and northern Indian Ocean RIM countries to produce early warning and risk maps for cholera outbreaks: the forecast system will be delivered to an agency for operational use and the risk warning will be placed in the public domain to reduce public health risks for the millions of people living in coastal areas.
The Indicators of the Impact generated will be the reduction in the number of people requiring treatment against Vibrio disease, the reduction in mortality rate associated with exposure to contaminated water, and the increase in capacity for disaster mitigation in affected areas.

Goal 6-Water Quality-Targets:
Provide evidence on Vibrio disease hotspots that can help government authorities to identify areas where microbial and antibiotic pollution should be treated as a priority.
Improve knowledge of the transmission routes and dynamics of cholera pathogens in the northern Indian Ocean coastal ecosystem in relation to climate variability and disease outbreaks: this information will develop increased preparedness along the transmission routes, and will integrate locally-targeted water sanitation control measures that will help to interrupt the transmission routes.
The Indicators of Impact will be an increase in the number of actions taken by local administrations to treat sources of pollution, and to engage the local communities in water and sanitation management.

Goal 13-Climate-Targets:
Improve knowledge of the influence of extreme weather events and climate variability on the incidence of cholera outbreaks and the contamination routes of Vibrio pathogens: this will help to prioritise policy measures for health service preparedness and population awareness when high-risk climate events occur, and hence improve cholera-disaster risk mitigation.
Provide evidence of the influence of climate change on the risk of Vibrio diseases for human health for use by the IPCC to inform governments and support development of policy measures to reduce climate-related risk to public health.
The indicators of the Impact will be an increase in the number of countries that recognise the need to integrate climate-related risk in their early warning systems for cholera outbreaks, and in their adaptation and mitigation plans (to reduce impact and risk of cholera outbreaks).

Goal 14-Oceans-Targets:
Provide evidence on the extent to which coastal communities are suffering from Vibrio diseases, that can be used to support development of sustainable management plans.
The Indicator will be an increase in the number of countries that incorporate ecosystem-based management in their stewardship of coastal ecosystems and their resources.


In addition to these elements of impact classify according to the SDGs, a complementary impact will derive from the trilateral collaboration at the international level. The collaboration will grow through reciprocal visits, knowledge exchange and capacity building, as well as through joint work on scientific papers, on follow-up proposals, and on synthesising results for the benefit of society at large.

Publications

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Campbell AM (2020) Cholera Risk: A Machine Learning Approach Applied to Essential Climate Variables. in International journal of environmental research and public health

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Smail E (2019) An introduction to the 'Oceans and Society: Blue Planet' initiative in Journal of Operational Oceanography

 
Description Preliminary key findings are below. Further details are available from Campbell, A.M., Racault, M.-F., Goult, S., Laurenson, A., 2020. Cholera Risk: A Machine Learning Approach Applied to Essential Climate Variables. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, 9378. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17249378

1) Demonstrated a novel application of machine learning for cholera risks in coastal India based on the analyses of clinical data and climate data records of seven satellite-based Essential Climate Variables and their respective lagged values.
2) Achieved 89.5% model accuracy, meaning that 89.5% of outbreaks could be correctly identified across all coastal Indian district reporting cholera outbreaks.
3) Showed that the variables contributing most strongly to the machine learning model for cholera prediction included the one-month and two-month lagged values of chlorophyll-a concentration, sea surface salinity, land surface temperature and sea level anomalies, in order of their contribution strength to the model performance results respectively.
4) Demonstrated the first usage of remotely-sensed sea surface salinity data in machine learning analyses of a combination of Essential Climate Variables to detect the risk of cholera outbreaks.

Further key findings will be reported as they arise during the course of the project (still active until May 2022).
Exploitation Route The model showed promising results when tested on individual districts in coastal India, underlining its potential to perform accurately across a country with large climatological differences evident spatially. In the future, the present novel analyses may be refined and the model continued to be tested using different cholera surveillance datasets and in diverse locations, to improve and broaden its applicability in other cholera endemic regions. Further model developments, accounting for socio-economic conditions, are anticipated to help us to improve model performance in seasons affected by confounding factors, such as during the monsoon when intense rainfalls place high pressure on populations' access to safe drinking water, and availability of sanitation and drainage systems. Future efforts would also need be directed in supporting long-term, continuous, accurate ECV observations in coastal areas and cholera surveillance programs, which are crucial for model validation, and to improve mechanistic understanding of environmental processes influencing cholera outbreaks.
Sectors Agriculture, Food and Drink,Communities and Social Services/Policy,Environment,Healthcare,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism

URL https://www.pml.ac.uk/Research/Projects/PODCAST
 
Description JAMSTEC project partner Co-sponsored WMO international conference to discuss the effects of climate on the spread of COVID-19 (by Behera-san)
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
URL https://public.wmo.int/en/events/meetings/covid-19-symposium
 
Description ESA-Future Earth COP26 Demonstrator
Amount € 24,914 (EUR)
Funding ID ESA-2020-04 
Organisation European Space Agency 
Sector Public
Country France
Start 09/2020 
End 08/2021
 
Title Clinical dataset of cholera incidence in coastal district in India 
Description Surveillance data of cholera outbreaks at the district level in India over the period July 2009 to December 2019 were collected from publicly available weekly epidemiological reports published in Portable Document Format by the Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme of India (IDSP). Each report describes the incidences of communicable diseases for a given week with detailed information per state and district on the disease, number of cases, number of deaths, start date, reporting date, current status and comments related to each outbreak. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2020 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The epidemiological datasets of have been used has a core input for the development of machine learning model to produce environmental cholera-risk forecast based on combination satellite climate data records. We have demonstrated a novel application of machine learning for cholera risks in coastal India. The algorithm identified correctly 89.5% of outbreaks across all coastal Indian district reporting cholera outbreaks. We are investigating potential for transfer of model to other regions and possible inclusion of socio-economic data. Peer-reviewed article has been published in Dec 2020 in the peer-reviewed journal Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health. Amy Campbell is first author, and Dr Racault is corresponding author. The results have been presented by by Amy Campbell at the International Symposium Ocean & Human Health 2-3 Dec 2020. The paper has achieved an altimetric score of 57 (In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric). The paper has been taken up by more than 7 news outlet including the BBC world news. The results have also been presented in a press release by ESA https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Space_for_health/Cholera_outbreaks_predicted_using_climate_data_and_AI 
URL https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/24/9378
 
Title PyLag - A tool for modelling particle transport and dispersion in the the marine environment 
Description PyLag is a new particle tracking tool that is written in a mixture of the programming languages Python and Cython. Written using object orientated design principles, it is readily extensible, and can in principle simulate the transport of a range of different particulates, ranging from marine pollutants such as microplastics, to fish larvae. It presently includes support for two different hydrodynamic models: FVCOM and GOTM. However, it is relatively easy to add support for different hydrodynamic models, and it is anticipated support for NEMO will be added in the near future. The model has also been parallelised, and can be used on both desktop computers and modern super computers. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2015 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The model has been used to simulate the transport and dispersal of microplastics around the SW UK coastline, and used to inform field sampling work. Outputs from the model have been used as background material in two Masters projects on microplastics. The model is currently being used by a PhD student at the University of Exeter to simulate the dispersal of Sea Fan larvae. It has also been used to simulate the dispersal of dredged material from various proposed dumping sites near to Plymouth, with results presented to both Cefas and the Marine Management Organisation. 
URL http://www.pml.ac.uk/Modelling/Models/Physical_models_and_couplers
 
Title PyLag v0.4 - A particle tracking model for marine applications 
Description This is the latest release of the particle tracking model PyLag, which has been under development since 2015. New features include support for a greater array of input data types, including data defined on global or regional rectilinear or curvilinear Arakawa A-grids, and data generated by the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS). Support for simulating particle behaviour has also been implemented. A conda package for the model has been developed, and support for continuous integration added using Travis CI. Finally, documentation has been added and integrated with GitHub using readthedocs. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2021 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The latest version of PyLag is being incorporated into a Coastal Observatory for the Tamar estuary and surrounding channel waters. The observatory will provide real time pollution tracking tools for end users through a web interface. The interface will go live in June 2021. The model has also supported publication, and is being used in a number of ongoing projects to track the movement and fate of particles of different types through the marine environment. 
URL https://pylag.readthedocs.io/en/latest/
 
Title PyLag-tools - A plotting library for analysisg PyLag model outputs 
Description PyLag-tools provides a set of classes and functions to help with plotting and analysing output from the particle tracking tool PyLag. It is written in Python and is stored under version control in a git repository hosted by PML. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2015 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The tool has been used by a PhD student at the University of Exeter in his project looking at the dispersal of sea fan larvae, and to produce plots for Masters students, who then incorporated these into their theses. 
URL http://www.pml.ac.uk/Modelling/Models/Physical_models_and_couplers
 
Description ESA Climate Office YGT collaboration on Cholera Risk: A Machine Learning Approach Applied to Essential Climate Variables 
Organisation European Space Agency
Department Harwell Centre
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution PML Dr Racault has been the supervisor of Amy Campbell during her 1-year Young Graduate Trainee fellowship from the European Space Agency. PML has brought in expertise on usage of Artificial Intelligence with PML Data Scientist Stephen Goult as part of NERC-NEODAAS. PML has also provided Clinical data on cholera outbreaks in coastal districts of India. The clinical data on cholera from IDSP India were curated by PML scientist Angus Laurenson as part of UKRI-PODCAST project. PML Racault has provided expertise on cholera risk analyses and development of forecast systems using ECVs from satellite observations.
Collaborator Contribution ESA Climate Office / YGT Amy Campbell have brought in satellite observations of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) produced by the ESA Climate Change Initiative program. The data have been obtained for the period from 2009 to 2019.
Impact We have used machine learning techniques to analyse in combination satellite climate data records and epidemiological data to produce environmental cholera-risk forecast. We have demonstrated a novel application of machine learning for cholera risks in coastal India. The algorithm identified correctly 89.5% of outbreaks across all coastal Indian district reporting cholera outbreaks. We are investigating potential for transfer of model to other regions and possible inclusion of socio-economic data. Peer-reviewed article has been published in Dec 2020 in the peer-reviewed journal Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health. Amy Campbell is first author, and Dr Racault is corresponding author. The results have been presented by by Amy Campbell at the International Symposium Ocean & Human Health 2-3 Dec 2020. The results have been published in a press release by ESA https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Space_for_health/Cholera_outbreaks_predicted_using_climate_data_and_AI And by more than 7 news outlets, including the BBC World News with the page translated in many languages: https://www.bbc.com/arabic/science-and-tech-56185703 https://www.bbc.com/hausa/labarai-56184840 https://www.bbc.com/tigrinya/news-56179528 https://www.bbc.com/indonesia/majalah-56178147 https://www.bbc.com/pashto/science-and-technology-56192581
Start Year 2019
 
Description Working Group on Earth Observation for Ecology and Epidemiology of Water-associated Disease 
Organisation Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR)
Department National Institute Of Oceanography (NIO)
Country India 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Activities 2019/20: Following outputs/impacts have been achieved: 1) Working Group activities have been described and reported in peer-reviewed publication Smail et al. 2019, doi:10.1080/1755876X.2019.163495; 2) Review article on Earth Observations for monitoring of Vibrio cholerae bacteria and cholera outbreak has been published in peer-reviewed journal. This forms a contribution to the WG (Racault et al., 2019, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11232763); and 3) News article contribution about WG activities in the GEO Blue Planet newsletter at: https://mailchi.mp/e04fcd2fa550/geo-blue-planet-up date-january-4143313?e=fca568b64e Activities 2018/19: Establishment of a core group of scientists with common interests in water-associated diseases, with expertise and interest in microbiology, genetics, epidemiology of infectious diseases, remote sensing and epidemic modelling, as a basis for international collaboration on public health issues related to water quality. The new GEO Blue Planet Working Group aimed to identify benefits, best practices and feasibility of incorporating Earth observation measurements into early-warning systems for water-associated diseases. It will provide a forum to exchange useful information, share data and coordinate activities where feasible, to maximise benefits to society. This initiative has been recognised as an important GEO Blue Planet activity under Theme 2 'Healthy Ecosystems and Food Security' and with societal relevance to public health, food security, water management, biodiversity and ecosystem sustainability, and disaster resilience. The WG activities are further adding value to GEO health community of practice and AquaWatch initiatives. Racault, M-F, Sathyendranath, S and Platt, T have initiated the Working Group. Racault, M-F has successfully obtained funding from Partnership for Observations of the Global Oceans (POGO) to hold a Scoping Meeting in Abingdon, UK, in August 2018. The meeting was organised over two days, and was structured around a series of presentations followed by discussion sessions.
Collaborator Contribution Activities 2019/20: WG members Racault, Sathyendranath, Platt, Abdulaziz, Menon, and George have published new review article in peer-reviewed journal. Reference: Racault M-F, Abdulaziz A, George G, Menon N, Jasmin C, Punathil M, McConville K, Loveday B, Platt T, Sathyendranath S, Vijitha V (2019) Environmental Reservoirs of Vibrio cholerae: Challenges and Opportunities for Ocean-Color Remote Sensing. Remote Sensing 11, 2763 Activities 2018/19: A total of 18 participants from six countries participated in the meeting. Several invitees were unable to attend, but expressed interest in staying engaged with the working group. All participants prepared a presentation to introduce their research interests on the topics of EO and water-associated diseases, state what they hoped to see as outcomes from the scoping meeting, and also express their aspirations for the proposed working group. WG partners and countries: Argentina: NFRDI; Brazil: INPE; India: NIO, NERCI; Japan: JAMSTEC, GSAIS Kyoto University; South Africa: SMRA, University of Pretoria; UK: Cefas, PML, Reading University, Wellcome Sanger Institute, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine LSTHM; USA: Maryland University, West Virginia University
Impact Activities 2019/20: 1) Working Group activities have been described and reported in peer-reviewed publication Smail et al. 2019, doi:10.1080/1755876X.2019.163495 2) Review article on Earth Observations for monitoring of Vibrio cholerae bacteria and cholera outbreak has been published in peer-reviewed journal. This forms a formal contribution to the WG. Reference: Racault et al., 2019, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11232763 3) WG activities have been reported in the GEO Blue Planet newsletter at: https://mailchi.mp/e04fcd2fa550/geo-blue-planet-update-january-4143313?e=fca568b64e Activities 2018/19: The following Milestones and Deliverables have been achieved: 1) Funding awarded by POGO to hold Scoping Meeting of the WG 27/06/2018 2) Poster presentation of the WG at the GEO Blue Planet Symposium 04/07/2018 3) WG webpage available on GEO Blue Planet website 01/08/2018 https://geoblueplanet.org/blue-planet-activities/wg_eo_water-associated_diseases/ 4) Scoping Group Meeting held 30/08/2018 5) WG formation agreed by attendees of the Scoping Meeting 31/08/2018 6) Poster presentation of the WG at the UK National Earth Observation Conference 07/09/2018 7) Scoping Group Meeting report circulated to participants for feedback 23/10/2018 8) Presentation of the GEO BP WG by NCEO/GEO at the GEO plenary exhibition 2018 29/10/2018 8) POGO Report submitted 12/11/2018 http://www.ocean-partners.org/earth-observation-ecology-and-epidemiology-water-associated-diseases 9) WG report presentation at the POGO Annual Meeting 21/01/2019 10) WG contribution to the GEO Blue Planet Implementation 2020-2022 submitted 28/02/2018
Start Year 2018
 
Description Working Group on Earth Observation for Ecology and Epidemiology of Water-associated Disease 
Organisation Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Country Japan 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Activities 2019/20: Following outputs/impacts have been achieved: 1) Working Group activities have been described and reported in peer-reviewed publication Smail et al. 2019, doi:10.1080/1755876X.2019.163495; 2) Review article on Earth Observations for monitoring of Vibrio cholerae bacteria and cholera outbreak has been published in peer-reviewed journal. This forms a contribution to the WG (Racault et al., 2019, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11232763); and 3) News article contribution about WG activities in the GEO Blue Planet newsletter at: https://mailchi.mp/e04fcd2fa550/geo-blue-planet-up date-january-4143313?e=fca568b64e Activities 2018/19: Establishment of a core group of scientists with common interests in water-associated diseases, with expertise and interest in microbiology, genetics, epidemiology of infectious diseases, remote sensing and epidemic modelling, as a basis for international collaboration on public health issues related to water quality. The new GEO Blue Planet Working Group aimed to identify benefits, best practices and feasibility of incorporating Earth observation measurements into early-warning systems for water-associated diseases. It will provide a forum to exchange useful information, share data and coordinate activities where feasible, to maximise benefits to society. This initiative has been recognised as an important GEO Blue Planet activity under Theme 2 'Healthy Ecosystems and Food Security' and with societal relevance to public health, food security, water management, biodiversity and ecosystem sustainability, and disaster resilience. The WG activities are further adding value to GEO health community of practice and AquaWatch initiatives. Racault, M-F, Sathyendranath, S and Platt, T have initiated the Working Group. Racault, M-F has successfully obtained funding from Partnership for Observations of the Global Oceans (POGO) to hold a Scoping Meeting in Abingdon, UK, in August 2018. The meeting was organised over two days, and was structured around a series of presentations followed by discussion sessions.
Collaborator Contribution Activities 2019/20: WG members Racault, Sathyendranath, Platt, Abdulaziz, Menon, and George have published new review article in peer-reviewed journal. Reference: Racault M-F, Abdulaziz A, George G, Menon N, Jasmin C, Punathil M, McConville K, Loveday B, Platt T, Sathyendranath S, Vijitha V (2019) Environmental Reservoirs of Vibrio cholerae: Challenges and Opportunities for Ocean-Color Remote Sensing. Remote Sensing 11, 2763 Activities 2018/19: A total of 18 participants from six countries participated in the meeting. Several invitees were unable to attend, but expressed interest in staying engaged with the working group. All participants prepared a presentation to introduce their research interests on the topics of EO and water-associated diseases, state what they hoped to see as outcomes from the scoping meeting, and also express their aspirations for the proposed working group. WG partners and countries: Argentina: NFRDI; Brazil: INPE; India: NIO, NERCI; Japan: JAMSTEC, GSAIS Kyoto University; South Africa: SMRA, University of Pretoria; UK: Cefas, PML, Reading University, Wellcome Sanger Institute, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine LSTHM; USA: Maryland University, West Virginia University
Impact Activities 2019/20: 1) Working Group activities have been described and reported in peer-reviewed publication Smail et al. 2019, doi:10.1080/1755876X.2019.163495 2) Review article on Earth Observations for monitoring of Vibrio cholerae bacteria and cholera outbreak has been published in peer-reviewed journal. This forms a formal contribution to the WG. Reference: Racault et al., 2019, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11232763 3) WG activities have been reported in the GEO Blue Planet newsletter at: https://mailchi.mp/e04fcd2fa550/geo-blue-planet-update-january-4143313?e=fca568b64e Activities 2018/19: The following Milestones and Deliverables have been achieved: 1) Funding awarded by POGO to hold Scoping Meeting of the WG 27/06/2018 2) Poster presentation of the WG at the GEO Blue Planet Symposium 04/07/2018 3) WG webpage available on GEO Blue Planet website 01/08/2018 https://geoblueplanet.org/blue-planet-activities/wg_eo_water-associated_diseases/ 4) Scoping Group Meeting held 30/08/2018 5) WG formation agreed by attendees of the Scoping Meeting 31/08/2018 6) Poster presentation of the WG at the UK National Earth Observation Conference 07/09/2018 7) Scoping Group Meeting report circulated to participants for feedback 23/10/2018 8) Presentation of the GEO BP WG by NCEO/GEO at the GEO plenary exhibition 2018 29/10/2018 8) POGO Report submitted 12/11/2018 http://www.ocean-partners.org/earth-observation-ecology-and-epidemiology-water-associated-diseases 9) WG report presentation at the POGO Annual Meeting 21/01/2019 10) WG contribution to the GEO Blue Planet Implementation 2020-2022 submitted 28/02/2018
Start Year 2018
 
Title Design of mobile application 'CLEANSE' for sanitation survey in coastal areas of southern Kerala and Chennai, India 
Description Statistics have shown that the overall proportion of Indian households with access to improved water sources increased from 68% in 1992-93 to 89.9% in 2015-16. However, lack of improved sanitation facilities and open defecation are still unresolved problems in India. Under the project PODCAST, steps are taken to study the sanitation status of the population in the coastal areas of southern Kerala and Chennai. Specifically, the mobile application named 'CLEANSE' has been developed to collect information on the source of drinking water, availability of clean drinking water, seasonal variations in the incidence of disease, use of antibiotics, sanitation habits etc. Sanitation survey has received sanction from Dept. of Health, Kerala State, India. 
Type Of Technology Webtool/Application 
Year Produced 2020 
Impact No impact yet. Designing and fine tuning of the mobile application is done and App is ready to use. The App has been tested and found to be free of errors. Education of the local population about the app and data retrieval will start from mid-March 2020 onwards. The data entered in the app will be stored in google docs and retrieved for analysis by NERCI-Kochi who is the custodian of the data. By filling the questions in the App, the public will get a first-hand experience of the environmental deterioration in their vicinity. 
 
Title PyLag - and offline particle tracking model 
Description PyLag is an offline particle tracking model for marine applications. It was initially designed to work with the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model, and to target near coast applications. However, it was recently be extended to support a broader range of model grids (2020). 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2019 
Open Source License? Yes  
Impact The model code has supported the release of a publication investigating the likely impact of dredge disposal on a Marine Protected Area. It is currently being developed in three projects to 1) Provide estimates of plastic fluxes between countries, 2) To track vibrio cholerae movements in the Indian Ocean, and 3) To track pollution in Plymouth Sound, with results displayed through a public web page. 
 
Description ESA on Instagram: "Predicting Cholera outbreaks from space?" - Post got more than 49K likes 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The ESA posted on Instagram about PODCAST project and peer-reviewed paper on Cholera Risk: A Machine Learning Approach Applied to Essential Climate Variables by Campbell, Racault, Goult and Laurenson, published in the journal Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health in Dec 2020.
The post received more than 49,000 likes and more than 350 comments as of 4 Mar 2021.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.instagram.com/p/CJUBiRGAY5S/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
 
Description BBC World News Article about paper on cholera and AI and ECVs 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact The BBC World News wrote an article about PODCAST project and peer-reviewed paper on Cholera Risk: A Machine Learning Approach Applied to Essential Climate Variables by Campbell, Racault, Goult and Laurenson, published in the journal Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health in Dec 2020. The BBC news article has been translated in many languages:
https://www.bbc.com/arabic/science-and-tech-56185703
https://www.bbc.com/hausa/labarai-56184840
https://www.bbc.com/tigrinya/news-56179528
https://www.bbc.com/indonesia/majalah-56178147
https://www.bbc.com/pashto/science-and-technology-56192581
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.bbc.com/arabic/science-and-tech-56185703
 
Description Household survey with local communities in Kerala, India 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Household survey has been initiated in the coastal districts of Ernakulam and Alappuzha districts of Kerala using the questionnaire during the months of 2020. A total of 94 houses on the banks of Vembanad Lake have been covered. Both urban and rural areas have been sampled by India partners.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Monthly provision of seasonal prediction through the JAMSTEC/APL website 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Quasi real-time seasonal prediction was provided every month through the JAMSTEC/APL website
(http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html)
In particular, the early-warning for the 2019 extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole was widely reported by the media (newspapers, TV program).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019,2020
URL http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html
 
Description News web-article/ Press Release by Plymouth Marine Laboratory and NERC about NERC TaSE Initiative funded projects 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The project Pathways of dispersal for cholera and solution tools (PODCAST) funded under the NERC Directed International was presented in the news article published in the PML website (https://www.pml.ac.uk/News_and_media/News/PODCAST_project_seeks_solution_for_cholera_outbrea), the article was linked to the news story published by NERC presenting the funded project in the the call "Towards a Sustainable Earth" (TaSE) published at https://nerc.ukri.org/press/releases/2019/07-tase/
The project PODCAST is a multi-lateral collaborative project involving partners from Japan JAMSTEC and India NIO, NERCI and CMFRI.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.pml.ac.uk/News_and_media/News/PODCAST_project_seeks_solution_for_cholera_outbrea
 
Description PODCAST project Annual Meeting, Plymouth, UK 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact PODCAST project Annual Meeting, was held 8 July 2020 online due to Covid home working guidance and international travel restrictions. The meeting was attended by 12 participants, three from Japan, five from UK, three from India. The meeting was organised with first a round-table short intro and summary of activities in PODCAST by each project partner. Then, the meeting was organised around the following topics: 1) Guest presentation: Cholera Risk from ECVs and Machine Learning; 2) Update on datasets (in-situ sampling, satellite observations, epidemiological); 3) Preliminary work on satellite Optical Water Classification; 4) Update on epidemiological model; 5) Update particle tracking and ocean circulation model; 6) Preliminary analyses of links between climate variability and cholera outbreaks; and 7) Project issues and Extension possibilities. The presentations were followed by questions/ discussions among participants.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description PODCAST project Kick-Off Meeting, Plymouth, UK 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact PODCAST project Kick-Off Meeting, was held 4-6 June 2019 in Plymouth UK. The meeting was attended by 10 participants, two from Japan and five from UK attended in-person, three India participants attended remotely due funding decision/sanction which had not yet been processed by DBT India.

The meeting was organised with first a round-table presentation of institutes and role in PODCAST by each project partner. Then, the meeting was arranged in four sessions along the themes: 1) Data collection; 2) Model Development; 3) Cholera-outbreak forecast system for coastal regions; 4) User participation, engagement and requirements; and 5) Project Management. A series of presentations followed by questions/ discussions were given by participants in each of the sessions.

In addition to the KO meeting on 6 June, Japan participants visited the Plymouth Marine Laboratory five science areas' facilities, and the Continuous Plankton Recorder facility at the Marine Biological Association institute in Plymouth.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description PODCAST-project presentation at UKRI-led Towards a Sustainable Earth (TaSE) Programme Meeting 13-14 Jan 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Supporters
Results and Impact Talk about PODCAST project as part of the UKRI-led Towards a Sustainable Earth (TaSE) Programme. The presentation highlighting progress, any key outcomes so far, impacts of COVID. It was presented to international funders from NERC, UKRI, UKRI India, UKRI China, India-UK Multilateral Division, Department of Biotechnology (DBT), Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) UK, Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agriculatural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS) Sweden, Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) Japan, and National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) China; and to researchers from interdisciplinary fields from UK, Japan, India, China and Sweden. Discussions included 1) lessons learnt on the SDG synergies and how to manage any trade-offs in achieving multiple conflicting SDGs; 2) Ideas exchange on feeding project findings into the SDG processes at national or international level and links to COP26; and 3) What is the future of research around SDG?
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://nerc.ukri.org/research/partnerships/international/tase/
 
Description Presentation and expert panel member at the COP25 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Dr Marie-Fanny Racault participated in the COP25 UK Pavilion Earth Observation Side Event 'Earth Observation and Climate Change: A Critical Capability in Understanding Our Changing World'. The event was led by moderator Prof Gideon Henderson (Defra CSA) who addressed audience to introduce the event and speakers, and gave a keynote speech, followed by six speaker presentations (including Dr Racault), and an audience discussion. Dr Racault's presentation focused on Earth Observations in the Oceans, and showed how Earth Observations provide a unique capability to monitor the oceans on both global and local scales. She presented examples of her research on marine phytoplankton and fisheries, and new applications to water-borne diseases (such as cholera) monitoring and human health. Finally, she reported on the potential opportunities for Earth observations to support ocean-based measures for the Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contributions in the areas of adaptation and mitigation. Outcomes/Impacts: - Request for media radio interview for the BBC World Service Tech Tent show; broadcast Friday 13th December and is on the programme's website; Dr Racault's segment starts at around 11´30" into the programme. https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3csymtd
- Request for further engagements: 1) European Space Agency invitation to give keynote talk at international symposium; 2) contributed to news article for NCEO webpage https://www.nceo.ac.uk/article/un-climate-change-c onference-december-2019-cop25/; and 3) NCEO (NERC) and Space4Climate group, Dr Racault reported about activities at COP25 and interests/potential opportunities for further engagements at COP26 with Defra, ESA, and GEO.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.nceo.ac.uk/article/un-climate-change-conference-december-2019-cop25/
 
Description Presentation at AGU Fall Meeting 2020 on 16 Dec 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Presentation "Climate precursors of satellite water marker index for spring cholera outbreak in Bengal Delta region" by Ogata T, Racault M-F, Nonaka M, Behera S, at AGU Fall Meeting 2020, 2020/12/16. This is novel work, which is part of PODCAST project.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Presentation on cholera and AI at ECMWF-ESA Workshop on Machine Learning for Earth System Observation and Prediction 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact Talk given by my postgraduate student Amy Campbell as part of the PODCAST project. The talk was on the topic of "Artificial Intelligence in ESA Contribution to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) : An Overview". The talk was presented during the Virtual Event: ECMWF-ESA Workshop on Machine Learning for Earth System Observation and Prediction 8-10 October 2020.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Presentation#1 at 1st International Symposium on Human Health and the Ocean in a changing world 2-3 Dec 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact E-poster presentation on the topic of "Surveillance of Environmental Reservoirs of Vibrio cholerae: challenges and Opportunities for Ocean-Colour Remote Sensing" was presented at the 1st International Symposium on Human Health and the Ocean in a changing world 2-3 Dec 2020. A 3-min video about the poster was posted on the Symposium webportal and made accessible for viewing by all participants for a period of 3 months. The Symposium was attended by more than 200 participants from around the world.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL http://www.oceanhealthmonaco.org/
 
Description Presentation#2 at 1st International Symposium on Human Health and the Ocean in a changing world 2-3 Dec 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact E-poster presentation on the topic of "Exploring the potential of CCI-ECV data and machine learning for environmental cholera risk forecasting" was presented by my postgraduate student Amy Campbell at the 1st International Symposium on Human Health and the Ocean in a changing world 2-3 Dec 2020. A 3-min video about the poster was posted on the Symposium webportal and made accessible for viewing by all participants for a period of 3 months. The Symposium was attended by more than 200 participants from around the world.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL http://www.oceanhealthmonaco.org/
 
Description Press release by ESA on "Cholera outbreaks predicted using climate data and AI" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact A press release has been published by European Space Agency about the PODCAST project and peer-reviewed paper on Cholera Risk: A Machine Learning Approach Applied to Essential Climate Variables by Campbell, Racault, Goult and Laurenson, published in the journal Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health in Dec 2020.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Space_for_health/Chole...
 
Description Radio interview for BBC World Service 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Radio interview for the BBC World Service Tech Tent show; broadcast Friday 13th December, interview is available on the programme's website as well; Marie-Fanny Racault's segment starts at around 11´30" into the programme. The radio interview took place following my presentation at the UK Pavilion event on Earth Observations for Climate during COP25 in Madrid, Spain, Dec 2019.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3csymtd