PERI-CENE (Peri-urbanization & climate-environment change)

Lead Research Organisation: University of Manchester
Department Name: Environment, Education and Development

Abstract

From space, the human impact on the planet is seen by the spread of cities; but the cities themselves are spreading into much larger territories, amorphous sprawling areas between and surrounding cities - i.e. the 'peri-urban'. Arguably, the planet has not only entered the Anthropocene, but also a 'Peri-cene': a global human-environment system shaped by peri-urbanization. Around the world the peri-urban displays many characteristics: global hubs and local enclaves, sprawl and disorder, disruption of communities and livelihoods, and in particular, growing climate risks and ecological disruption. Peri-urbanisation is both a material process of land-use change and impact, and a human process of social, economic, political, and cultural transitions: whether informal or planned, intensive or extensive, the peri-urban is critical to the provision of urban food, energy and water. In turn, understanding peri-urbanisation is critical to three Sustainable Development Goals: Goal 11 on Sustainable Cities and Communities, Goal 13 on Climate Action, and Goal 15 for Life on Land.

The PERI-CENE project will provide the first ever comprehensive assessment of peri-urbanisation climate impacts, risks and vulnerabilities. It will provide a global typology and global assessment with an inter-active peri-urban analysis tool. It builds an interactive Living Lab with 18 city-regions from around the world, and explores deeper issues in two case studies. The PERI-CENE then develops forward pathways to be scaleable and transferable.

Planned Impact

The project aims to increase the understanding of peri-urban climate risks and their interaction with urban areas in order to effectively help local stakeholders build climate resilience in different spatial contexts. We will co-design convincing arguments around policy and technical innovations that can build resilience in a way that works with existing knowledge and data, and within the confines of scarce resources. By addressing peri-urban issues, our activities and networks will support local areas in developing strategies that move towards the realisation of SDGs 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), 13 (Climate Action) and 15 (Life on Land). In order to do this, our impact strategy aims to:
- deliver a substantial contribution to progressing local policy making for climate resilience by supporting stakeholders in the understanding of the interdependencies between peri-urban and urban areas in terms of climate risk;
- increase awareness of the opportunities and challenges associated with addressing human-environment interactions in peri-urban areas;
- devise innovative communication tools in order to support local stakeholders in diverse contexts to manage climate risk in peri-urban areas;
- build new dialogues between researchers and local stakeholders to support the understanding of human-environment interactions in peri-urban and urban areas.

The project will fill a significant knowledge and strategic gap on the governance of climate risk in peri-urban areas. The target non-academic communities for this research are local government policy makers, urban planners, community groups (?), national policy makers and transnational network organisations who are attempting to make fundamental and long-lasting progress on climate change adaptation and building resilience. The map tool and associated methodology will be of particular use to urban planners and regional policy makers. The global Living Lab and the two local case studies will provide arenas for dialogue in order to support the co-design of knowledge. The resultant identification of policy and technical innovations will result from this increased dialogue between researchers and local stakeholders. The project findings will be directly relevant to the XX cities that engage in the project. These cities will benefit directly from the project reports and the recommended pathways of policy combinations, and will build capacity to address the co-identified problems relating to peri-urban areas. The project will also produce policy and practitioner briefs and policy guidance for different identified stakeholder groups that seeks to transfer the learning into other local contexts.

The project website will serve as the main dissemination channel for the project outputs. Project outputs will include project reports, policy briefs, a policy instrument toolkit, and workshops in the case study cities (see the description for Work Packages 3 and 4). The project outputs will be publicly available and will be promoted through social media (e.g. Twitter Linked-In), articles in academic and professional journals, and through our existing links with transnational partners such as ICLEI, 100 Resilient Cities and UN-Habitat. In this way, a wider international audience will access the outputs and can become engaged in the discussion through the course of the project and beyond as a result. The project team will also help to continue the international discussion through co-organising discussion events associated with our international partners e.g. the ICLEI World Congress and Resilient Cities: The Global Forum on Urban Resilience and Adaptation
 
Description • The peri-urban is more than a spread-out urban: new kinds of 'metro-scapes' are emerging - distributed / bypassed\ communities, networked economies, displaced ecosystems;
• Likewise, climate change risk, at the city-region level, is more than a variation on known hazards: more a new kind of regime with new challenges - technical, social, economic and political;
• The interactions of peri-urbanization with climate risk involve a host of direct problems (flood, fire, storm, rising seas). They also involve many indirect and structural challenges (inequality, fragmentation, corruption & exploitation).
- Drawing from our 10% global sample, total peri-urban land around the world could be in the order of 1.8 million km2 (approx. the size of Mexico). The rate of growth could be 3% of this, in the region of 60,000 km2 per year.
- Peri-urban land areas overall have doubled in 25 years (urban land areas are slower growing at 9%). Meanwhile peri-urban populations have increased by 22% (urban area populations by 37%); this shows a smaller population spreading out, while the majority are still expanding and infilling urban areas.
- • Peri-urban impacts on 'governance': governance is typically fragmented in political units, lacking connection to ecological zones: collaborative governance is more difficult, with a society polarized into higher / lower income enclaves.
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In response we look for a 'collective peri-eco-urban intelligence' - the capacity for communication, learning, innovation and co-production between all involved. Then we look to design and plan for adaptive pathways:
• Direct and strategic adaptation for flooding, wildfires, drought, sea level rise etc;
• Design thinking and systems approach for food, energy, water, housing, landscape etc;
• Peri-urban-rural linkages and bio-regional ecosystems approach

To support these, we set up adaptive governance systems in each of four tracks:
• Formal government: strategic multi-level, integrated planning & public services
• Market-centred governance: integrated social & ecological values in markets & enterprises
• Civil society governance: collaborative, inclusive & participative forms of governance
• Grassroots social initiatives: enabling the energy of social innovations
Exploitation Route Various applications including:
urban & regional spatial planning
climate adaptation science & policy
real estate strategic intelligence
agro-ecology systems
adaptive governance systems
Sectors Communities and Social Services/Policy,Construction,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice

URL http://peri-cene.net
 
Description some signs of positive impact are beginning to emerge, (in spite of disruption and delay due to the Covid19) - insights on several themes: - - new thinking on transformative adaptation, e.g. as explored in the NERC TaSE synthesis workshop, hosted by ourselves in July 2021 - new thinking on DRR (disaster risk reduction), in India and elsewhere, in collaboration with the National Institute of Disaster Management in India and others, - new thinking on 'adaptive governance', e,g with the Defra program for ELM (Environmental Land Management), and practical applications e.g. the South Pennines Park - new thinking on peri-urbanization and its role in bio-regional thinking, with spatial planners in various of our partner cities in the Peri-cene Policy Lab: e.g. Melbourne, Surabaya, Bangkok, Granada, Helsinki, Toronto, San Diego - new thinking on 'urban-rural linkages', as in the UN Habitat program, with a view to follow on research & capacity building programs
First Year Of Impact 2021
Sector Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Societal,Policy & public services

 
Description Food Futures Wales 
Organisation Natural Resources Wales
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution The Food Futures Wales project is a demonstration of systems transformation, based on the methods developed in and around the Peri-cene project. With a wide cross section of stakeholders the project explores 'adaptive pathways' for the urban-peri-urban dimension of the food systems, both production and consumption.
Collaborator Contribution Natural Resources Wales has a very active and forward looking program on systems transformation - https://naturalresources.wales/evidence-and-data/research-and-reports/state-of-natural-resources-report-sonarr-for-wales-2020/sonarr2020-bridges-to-the-future/?lang=en
Impact work in progress - the collaboration is multi-disciplinary including environmental science & policy: urban planning & infrastructure: economic development: systems analysis
Start Year 2022
 
Description LUCID - Laboratory for Collective Urban Intelligence Design 
Organisation National Research University Higher School of Economics
Country Russian Federation 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The methods developed in the Peri-cene project are being further explored and applied in this online 'Laboratory', in collaboration with the ISSEK (Institute for Social Science & Economics of Knowledge) at the HSE in Moscow.
Collaborator Contribution ISSEK is hosting a series of hybrid workshops on the theme of Foresight 3.0: in association with the conferences on 'Foresight for Science Technology & Innovation': also coordinating input by masters students, and also making links with the ~IFORA big data analytic platform
Impact The online workshop series in progress, has involved around 50 external speakers & around 500 participants. Special issue is about to be launched Due to the political situation the current program is paused.
Start Year 2019
 
Description Loop-3 (Local Loops & Links) 
Organisation Manchester City Council
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution This concept builds on the Looper project 2018-2020 (www.looperproject.eu ), which highlighted the 'active' potential at the neighbourhood level. We were fortunate to gain CoA additional funding due to the disruption on the Looper project. This is proposed to fund a small pilot project 'Loop-3', which puts the Looper findings into active use, with an added focus on organizational learning and policy coordination in typical inner city communities.
Collaborator Contribution Manchester City Council has provided large amounts of officer time for consultation and fieldwork information gathering, along with on-site office premises.
Impact work has just commenced as of March 2021
Start Year 2021
 
Description UN Habitat Urban-Rural Linkages program 
Organisation UN Habitat, Kenya
Country Kenya 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution The Peri-cene project has developed valuable evidence to support this international program of evidence and capacity building.
Collaborator Contribution So far the keynote for the International Forum Octoberr 2021 (see engagement), and a series of online workshops. We aim to develop fully the application of the Peri-cene results into a capacity building program & toolkit.
Impact Multi-disciplinary: Overseas development economic development social innovation climate adaptation agro-ecology adaptive governance systems
Start Year 2021
 
Description Advisor to the European Commission DG REGIO on 'Managing Industrial Transitions in Lagging Regions', with the JRC Expert Group, IPTS Seville 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The project 'Managing Industrial Transitions in Lagging Regions', is run by the JRC Expert Group, IPTS Seville. Experience and theoretical background from the Peri-cene project (work in progress ) is a contribution on the themes of transition management in complex systems, urban-regional path dependency, and 'collective resilience intelligence' as a policy program.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019,2020
 
Description Expert panel for project 'UK socioeconomic scenarios for climate research and policy' for the Met Office, ( UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology / Exeter / Ediburgh, led by Cambridge Econometrics.) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact a consortium consisting of Cambridge Econometrics, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, the University of Edinburgh and the University of Exeter, was successful in our bid for the Met Office project titled 'Development and provision of UK socio economic scenarios for climate vulnerability, impact, adaptation and services research and policy'.
The project has now commenced, and in the first project task we will be performing an extensive literature review alongside stakeholder engagement, to establish precisely which variables should be included in the consistent set of socioeconomic scenarios to be constructed within the rest of the project, plus how these variables link together.
The expert user panel is convened to allow stakeholders and researchers from a variety of disciplines the opportunity to discuss directly with the project team the anticipated requirements of the scenario data to be developed in the study with the project team.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Future-wise Collaboratorium 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact these 'Future-wise Conversations' aim to advance the state of the art on collective intelligence and its many applications. With a series of creative 'connect-think-do' sessions, we aim to turn dialogue into action. There are 3 broad themes:

- 'Foresight-wise' theme - futures methods, system transformations, and the question - how to build the collective anticipatory intelligence?
- 'Smart-wise' theme - connected communities, responsive governance, and the question - how to combine technology and society with a CHAI (Collective Human Artificial Intelligence)?
- 'Eco-wise' theme - sustainable cities and regions, climate risk-resilience, and the question - how to foster a deeper and wider collective climatic intelligence?
All this starts to add up to a 'Collaboratorium', or 'Laboratory for the collective urban intelligence' - an ongoing community for experimentation and design of pathways to action.
From September 2020 - March 2021 we have run 9 fully interactive workshops, and 5 related events with some degree of interaction.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020,2021
URL https://sites.manchester.ac.uk/synergistics/conversations/
 
Description International Conference on "Challenges of Disasters: Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience': JNU, New Delhi: Valedictory Address by Joe Ravetz, March 3rd - 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Growing interest in the Peri-cene project, and in the Eco-wise Collaboratorium
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL http://jmi.ac.in/bulletinboard/eventmodule/latest/detail/2461/26542
 
Description Joint MUI / MIOIR seminar: Policy Innovation in Indonesia 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact INNOVATING POLICY FROM THE CENTRE
The case of Indonesia's development priorities 2014-2019
A joint seminar:
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research - Alliance Manchester Business School: and Manchester Urban Institute - School of Environment and Development
University of Manchester, The Penthouse Event Space, 3 October 2019, 4.00pm
By Yanuar Nugroho,
Deputy Chief of Staff to the President, Executive Office of the President, Indonesia;
Honorary Research Fellow, University of Manchester, United Kingdom
(Chair: Joe Ravetz, MUI)

Abstract
How can science-technology-innovation (STI) studies help with policy and policy-makers on the ground? Just as cities show layers through time, many public institutions seem to address the problems of the past. But looking forward, in urban and economic development, social policy and public services, there are new and powerful insights coming from non-Western settings.
This points to the Looper theme of digitally enhanced learning loops and active co-governance: the possible extension to the Global South is of topical interest.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.alliancembs.manchester.ac.uk/events/innovating-policy-from-the-centre/
 
Description Keynote at the 5th ICPEU (International Conference Planning in the Era of Uncertainty) "Rural-Urban Connectivity" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Keynote with follow up activities as academic visitor at the University of Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL http://johannes.lecture.ub.ac.id/2021/04/the-5th-international-conference-planning-in-the-era-of-unc...
 
Description Keynote at the International Forum on Urban-Rural Linkages (from the UN Habitat URL program) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Keynote with follow up online workshop
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://urbanpolicyplatform.org/ifurl2/
 
Description Keynote for Royal Geographical Society / IBG Forum on 'City of Tomorrow' 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Our panel examines alternative visions of urban futures, covering planning, sustainability, governance and new technology, they give a sense of how everyday city life is being reimagined by geographers. The panel included Prof Alison Browne (Cardiff), Tim Schwanen (Oxford) and Joe Ravetz (Manchester)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.rgs.org/all/?day=2019-10-24
 
Description Keynote for UoM Industry 4.0 Symposium 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact UoM Industry 4.0 Symposium, invited keynote: 'Urban 4.0 for Industry 4.0'

"There are huge opportunities in smart city IoT, and also a realization that there is more to cities than a set of technical problems, and hence a growing agenda to look 'from smart to wise'. This raises the current debate on 'smart inclusive growth', and the social context of Industry 4.0 in skills and training, careers and livelihoods, and local investment for global value chains.

All this raises the prospect of 'collective industrial intelligence', where an Industry 4.0 model reaches beyond the production chain, to wider demand side and societal linkages. And if this calls for not just a 'triple helix' of policy / business / academia, but an urban Multi-Versity, where everyone can learn from everyone, it may be that Manchester is ideally placed to put such ideas into practice
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.industry40summit.com/academia
 
Description Keynote for the Tamil Nadu State Disaster Management Authority, workshop on 'climate risk & coastal urban ecosystems' 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The Tamil Nadu State Disaster Management Authority, based in Chennai, was launching a series of technical reports on 'climate risk & coastal urban ecosystems'. They requested a keynote address and assistance with workshop design. The keynote drew on the Peri-cene research in progress, and helped to generate an active exchange of experience.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://tnsdma.tn.gov.in/
 
Description Led a workshop on the 'smart settlement' development program with Homes England, IBI Consulting and East Cheshire District. 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Led a workshop on the 'smart settlement' development program with Homes England, IBI Consulting and East Cheshire District.
This was a proto-pilot test bed for a proposed urban living lab.
The smart demonstrator now moving forward in E Cheshire and possibly other sites, is an ideal 'experimental zone', a so-called urban Living Lab. Such a Lab would include:
- A medium-longer term investigation, starting with site brief and pre-planning, through design, construction, occupation and maintenance.
- Focus on the links between technical innovation and social / economic / governance innovations
- A framework for monitoring & evaluation of the development in practice through the life cycle.
Urban living labs are in operation, around the EU and beyond. Most are combinations of the following:
• Trial / demonstration of new systems, prototypes, innovations under real world conditions
• Enclave or niche, for controlled experimentation & evaluation
• Platform for learning between various actors & sectors, in a 'multi-versity' (multi-helix) effect
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Operational Research Society Annual Conference - hosted workshop on 'deeper challenge, wider practice' 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Operational Research Society Annual Conference - hosted workshop on 'deeper challenge, wider practice' - application of multiple systems methods. This was based on the Peri-cene theoretical background and work in progress.
This workshop is a path-finding exploration of an emerging landscape. Typical human problems contain a 'deeper' complexity, with different systems & perspectives overlaid and contested (social, technical, economic, political etc). To understand and respond we need a 'wider' set of methods and tools and stakeholder roles. But there are many ways to structure the problem and many methods in response. So this workshop aims at least to start a process of meta-mapping and meta-design. Aims: a systematic review evaluation & comparison of different methods / tools, in application to a range of typical 'wicked problems' / 'grand challenges'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.theorsociety.com/what-we-do/events-conferences/annual-conference/or61-annual-conference-...
 
Description Post-Covid-Design-3.0 planning for pandemic distance: at the World Planning Day 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Growing interest in the Peri-cene project and in the 'Future-wise Collaboratorium'
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.sacities.net/world-town-planning-day-2020/
 
Description Workshop on 'urbanities 4.0', XXI International Conference on STI Foresight & Future studies, Higher School of Economics, National Research University, Moscow 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact This included an interactive session within the 'Urbanities 4.0' workshop: 'Cities but not as we know them: emergent peri-urban systems on the edge and beyond'.

Here we take a 'future of futures' approach to cities and built environments in the later 21st century. Building on the DG REGIO 'cities of tomorrow' and the UK foresight on cities, the Peri-cene (Peri-urbanization climate-environment) project in progress, is mapped in context and analysed from a foresight perspective. This is then compared to other recent ventures.
Finland 'Bemine' (Beyond the technical') project has systematically explored some key emerging trends and paradigm shifts for the urban leading edge (social, economic, spatial). Four types of co-evolutionary paradigm are demonstrated, compared with mainstream scenarios, and then put through a creative process to explore synergistic pathways. The result from interactive discussion is highly relevant to strategic planning, technology roadmapping, social / economic policy development.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://issek.hse.ru/en/forsconf-2019/