Hydro-JULES: Next generation land surface and hydrological prediction

Lead Research Organisation: UK Ctr for Ecology & Hydrology fr 011219
Department Name: Hydro-climate Risks

Abstract

The major project outcome will be a world-leading integrated terrestrial hydrological model that goes from global weather and local rainfall through the terrestrial hydrological system to flood inundation assessments and their consequent impacts. The Hydro-JULES model and its associated datasets will enable UK science to tackle outstanding research questions in hydrological science and will provide a national resource to support research both specific to the Hydro-JULES project and beyond. Hydro-JULES will provide the UK hydrological and land-surface communities with the model and research infrastructure to tackle the most pressing internationally-important research questions in this field, which include: 1. How do hydrological systems respond to present-day climate variability and how can the impacts of future climate change best be quantified in ungauged locations, in data-sparse regions and under non-stationary conditions? 2. To what extent can new observational and modelling techniques improve our understanding of how extreme precipitation, especially high-intensity convective precipitation, drives flooding? 3. How will changes in land-use and land management affect surface permeability, soil water storage, runoff, river flows and flood inundation? 4. What are the combined probabilities of fluvial, pluvial, coastal and groundwater flooding in response to changes in climate, and can a coupled approach to flood risk estimation quantify those risks more effectively? 5. How will biogeochemical and nutrient cycles respond to current and future variability in the hydrological cycle, especially under conditions of changing climate and land-cover? 6. To what extent can assimilation of observed hydrological states and fluxes (e.g., soil moisture and stream flow) improve hydrological and meteorological predictions, and on what time-scales? 7. Can uncertainty in large-scale hydrological predictions be attributed to specific hydrological processes in order to target future process-based research? 8. What is the sensitivity of Earth system components (e.g., vegetation, carbon cycle, aerosols, land ice, sea ice, ocean circulation and biogeochemistry) to changes in the hydrological cycle; and can enhanced representation of terrestrial hydrology in Earth system models help constrain responses to such changes?

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description The major project outcome will be a world-leading integrated terrestrial hydrological model that goes from global weather and local rainfall through the terrestrial hydrological system to flood inundation assessments and their consequent impacts. The Hydro-JULES model and its associated datasets will enable UK science to tackle outstanding research questions in hydrological science and will provide a national resource to support research both specific to the Hydro-JULES project and beyond. Hydro-JULES will provide the UK hydrological and land-surface communities with the model and research infrastructure to tackle the most pressing internationally-important research questions in this field, which include:
How do hydrological systems respond to present-day climate variability and how can the impacts of future climate change best be quantified in ungauged locations, in data-sparse regions and under non-stationary conditions?
· To what extent can new observational and modelling techniques improve our understanding of how extreme precipitation, especially high-intensity convective precipitation, drives flooding?
· How will changes in land-use and land management affect surface permeability, soil water storage, runoff, river flows and flood inundation?
· What are the combined probabilities of fluvial, pluvial, coastal and groundwater flooding in response to changes in climate, and can a coupled approach to flood risk estimation quantify those risks more effectively?
· How will biogeochemical and nutrient cycles respond to current and future variability in the hydrological cycle, especially under conditions of changing climate and land-cover?
· To what extent can assimilation of observed hydrological states and fluxes (e.g., soil moisture and stream flow) improve hydrological and meteorological predictions, and on what time-scales?
· Can uncertainty in large-scale hydrological predictions be attributed to specific hydrological processes in order to target future process-based research?
· What is the sensitivity of Earth system components (e.g., vegetation, carbon cycle, aerosols, land ice, sea ice, ocean circulation and biogeochemistry) to changes in the hydrological cycle; and can enhanced representation of terrestrial hydrology in Earth system models help constrain responses to such changes?
Exploitation Route Award in progress; tbc
Sectors Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment

 
Description The findings of this work have been used to improve UK land-surface modelling capability through the enhancement of the JULES modelling system and the Met Office Unified Model. We have also initiated several collaborative activities with researchers in the wider research and academic community.
First Year Of Impact 2021
 
Title Climate hydrology and ecology research support system meteorology dataset for Great Britain (1961-2017) [CHESS-met] 
Description Gridded daily meteorological variables over Great Britain for the years 1961-2017 at 1 km resolution. This dataset contains time series of daily mean values of air temperature (K), specific humidity (kg kg-1), wind speed (m s-1), downward longwave radiation (W m-2), downward shortwave radiation (W m-2), precipitation (kg m-2 s-2) and air pressure (Pa), plus daily temperature range (K). These are the variables required to run the JULES land surface model with daily disaggregation. The data are provided in gridded netCDF files. There is one file for each variable for each month of the data set. This data set supersedes the previous version as temporal coverage has been extended to include the years 2016-2017 and the netCDF metadata has been updated and improved. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2020 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact This is an update to a well-cited data set, the previous version of which has been used for studies as diverse as hydrology, macronutrients, ecosystem services, insect population dynamics, land use/land use change, urban effects on climate change and soil fungal populations. It is a key component of the CAMELS-GB catchment hydrology dataset, as well as being a key driving dataset for running the JULES land surface model in the UK. 
URL https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/id/2ab15bf0-ad08-415c-ba64-831168be7293
 
Title Climate hydrology and ecology research support system potential evapotranspiration dataset for Great Britain (1961-2017) [CHESS-PE] 
Description Gridded potential evapotranspiration over Great Britain for the years 1961-2017 at 1 km resolution. This dataset contains two potential evapotranspiration variables: daily total potential evapotranspiration (PET; kg m-2) for a well-watered grass and daily total potential evapotranspiration with interception correction (PETI; kg m-2). The data are provided in gridded netCDF files. There is one file for each variable for each month of the data set. This data set supersedes the previous version as bugs in the calculation of the variables have been fixed (for all years), temporal coverage of both variables has been extended to include the years 2016-2017 and the netCDF metadata has been updated and improved. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2020 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact This is an update to a well-cited data set, the previous version of which has been used extensively in hydrological modelling, both by UKCEH and external researchers. The previous version was a key component of the CAMELS-GB catchment hydrology dataset. 
URL https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/id/9116e565-2c0a-455b-9c68-558fdd9179ad
 
Title Gridded estimates of daily and monthly areal rainfall for the United Kingdom (1890-2017) [CEH-GEAR] 
Description 1 km gridded estimates of daily and monthly rainfall for Great-Britain and Northern Ireland (together with approximately 3000 km2 of catchment in the Republic of Ireland) from 1890 to 2017. The rainfall estimates are derived from the Met Office national database of observed precipitation. To derive the estimates, monthly and daily (when complete month available) precipitation totals from the UK rain gauge network are used. The natural neighbour interpolation methodology, including a normalisation step based on average annual rainfall, was used to generate the daily and monthly estimates. The estimated rainfall on a given day refers to the rainfall amount precipitated in 24 hours between 9am on that day until 9am on the following day. The CEH-GEAR dataset has been developed according to the guidance provided in BS 7843-4:2012. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Data downloaded by numerous users 
URL https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/id/ee9ab43d-a4fe-4e73-afd5-cd4fc4c82556
 
Title Gridded estimates of hourly areal rainfall for Great Britain (1990-2014) [CEH-GEAR1hr] 
Description The dataset contains 1km gridded estimates of hourly rainfall for Great-Britain for the period 1990-2014. The estimates are derived by applying the nearest neighbour interpolation method to a national database of hourly raingauge observations collated by Newcastle University and the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH). These interpolated hourly estimates were then used to temporally disaggregate the CEH-GEAR daily rainfall dataset. The estimated rainfall on a given hour refers to the rainfall amount accumulated in the previous hour. The dataset also contains data indicating the distance between the grid point and the closest recording raingauge used in its interpolation. When this distance is greater than 50km, or there is zero rainfall recorded in the closest gauge, the daily value is disaggregated using a design storm. The dataset therefore also contains a flag indicating if the design storm was used. These data are provided as an indicator of the quality of the estimates. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Data available for download at EIDC 
URL https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/id/d4ddc781-25f3-423a-bba0-747cc82dc6fa
 
Title Snow water equivalent estimates using cosmic-ray neutron sensors in the United Kingdom (2014-2019) 
Description This dataset provides daily estimates of the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) using data from 46 COSMOS-UK sites across the United Kingdom. One set of estimates is derived from the cosmic ray neutron sensor and provides an estimate of the average SWE within the sensor's large (>100m) footprint. Other SWE estimates are based on either a snowmelt model, or, for certain sites, either a snow depth sensor or a buried 'SnowFox' neutron sensor. Additionally, daily neutron counts, the albedo, and a collection of figures for each snow event are provided. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2020 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Data available at EIDC 
URL https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/id/e1fa6897-0f09-4472-adab-5d0d7bbc2548
 
Title New North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) based forecasting outputs operationalised in the Hydrological Outlook 
Description A new set of outputs was added to the Hydrological Outlooks website from Dec 2020 - Feb 2021. This is new HydroJULES/UKSCAPE modelling outputs that were operationalised, namely a new high resolution North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-based seasonal forecast achieved through collaboration with UK Met Office. Through collaboration with the Met Office, we trialled running their GLOSEA-5 NAO forecasting outputs through a hydrological model (GR4J) already used in the Hydrological Outlook. We validated this through hindcasts, and after several years running as a pilot during wintertime, in Nov 2020 we operationalised this tool through the UK Hydrological Outlook. 
Type Of Technology Webtool/Application 
Year Produced 2020 
Impact The main impact was this methodology was operationalised and featured in the Hydrological Outlook UK, the UK's primary seasonal hydrological forecasting service. We developed a custom layout to show the outputs and these were featured each month through the winter, alongside the regular outputs. The NAO forecasts provided a different picture to the conventional forecasts, and this in turn led to the new forecasts having an impact on the operational multi-method summary forecast itself. This meant more confident forecast information could be provided to the user community for the upcoming winter, giving early warning of the potential for high river flows. 
URL https://www.hydoutuk.net/
 
Description Hydro-JULES Annual Meeting - Next Generation Land-surface and Hydrological Predictions - 11th September 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact This one-day science meeting on the topic of Next Generation Land-surface and Hydrological Predictions was the annual meeting of the Hydro-JULES Programme. The aim of the meeting was to facilitate collaborations that will share knowledge, advance existing research, stimulate new research areas, and enable new relationships to be built in environmental fields. 120 people attended the event which was a mixture of keynote speeches from collaborators from Australia, Japan, France and UK, poster sessions, lightening talks and exhibiters demonstrating different areas of progress within the project. The outcome was continued stakeholder engagement and further opportunities for collaboration.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://hydro-jules.org/next-generation-land-surface-and-hydrological-predictions-1
 
Description Hydro-JULES Kick Off Meeting September 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Hydro-JULES Kick Off Meeting- held at UKCEH in September 2018, this was attended by 85 individuals including project team members and stakeholders. The purpose of this meeting was to convey to attendees the scope, structure and ambition of the project as well as project personnel. It was also important to understand the needs and concerns of the hydrology community. Many issues raised at the meeting were followed up and key stakeholders identified.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://hydro-jules.org/inaugural-open-meeting
 
Description Hydro-JULES Webinar September 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The webinar was organised in place of a planned annual face to face event due to the global pandemic. The purpose was to communicate to stakeholders the progress and highlights of the research undertaken in Hydro-JULES since September 2019. There were 101 attendees on the day and a recording was made available on the Hydro-JULES website soon after. The webinar was a series of presentations from various researchers involved in the different work packages followed by a Q &A session. The outcome of the webinar is that we received some really appreciative emails from stakeholders and continued engagement with the project.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://hydro-jules.org/news/hydro-jules-2020-webinar
 
Description Hydro-JULES Website, Blog Posts and Twitter Feed 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Website and associated blog posts
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018,2019,2020,2021
URL http://www.hydro-jules.org
 
Description Production of 2 activity packs for School children 14-18yrs about Hydrology - as part of the British Science Association (BSA) Crest Awards scheme 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact Hydro-JULES released two education packs (Silver and Gold) co-produced with the BSA, as part of the CREST Award scheme open to all schools, to introduce hydrological science to school children 14-18 yrs. We have produced a range of education tools to engage teenagers in hydrology and the work of Hydro-JULES. To arouse their curiosity and inspire them to consider a career in science, technology, engineering and maths (STEM), the Hydro-JULES team ditched the technical terms and instead focussed on themes that we felt would be most relevant to UK teenagers. The themes covered by these activities are varied, from researching the potential effects of a drought on businesses and industry to understanding the impacts of flooding on water quality and ecosystems in a local freshwater area.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.crestawards.org/
 
Description Production of an activity in the British Science Week Activity Pack 2021 - run by the British Science Association 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact In March 2021 topics connected to the Hydro-JULES science themes were introduced to all UK schools in the British Science Week activity pack produced in collaboration with the British Science Association(BSA). During the COVID lockdowns the home learning pack attracted 96,429 downloads by Autumn 2021 (figures provided by BSA)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Programme of visiting PDRAs & Graduate Students 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact 5 students ranging from undergraduate to Masters visited UKCEH to work on specific projects with a member of the Hydro-JULES team in one of the
environmental research fields covered within the scope of the project. The students were each assigned a supervisor and worked with them. They had opportunities to speak to many of the project team and it improved their understanding of running large complex earth system models and analysing large datasets. The students were all involved in the planning and delivery of the Hydro-JULES conference at the Royal Society and had the opportunity to present a lightening talk on the research they had undertaken. The outcome of this programme is that the students had an opportunity to speak to experts within the hydrology field nationally and internationally and this may inform their future career considerations and capabilities.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019