Hydro-JULES: Next generation land surface and hydrological prediction

Lead Research Organisation: WesternGeco

Abstract

The major project outcome will be a world-leading integrated terrestrial hydrological model that goes from global weather and local rainfall through the terrestrial hydrological system to flood inundation assessments and their consequent impacts. The Hydro-JULES model and its associated datasets will enable UK science to tackle outstanding research questions in hydrological science and will provide a national resource to support research both specific to the Hydro-JULES project and beyond. Hydro-JULES will provide the UK hydrological and land-surface communities with the model and research infrastructure to tackle the most pressing internationally-important research questions in this field, which include: 1. How do hydrological systems respond to present-day climate variability and how can the impacts of future climate change best be quantified in ungauged locations, in data-sparse regions and under non-stationary conditions? 2. To what extent can new observational and modelling techniques improve our understanding of how extreme precipitation, especially high-intensity convective precipitation, drives flooding? 3. How will changes in land-use and land management affect surface permeability, soil water storage, runoff, river flows and flood inundation? 4. What are the combined probabilities of fluvial, pluvial, coastal and groundwater flooding in response to changes in climate, and can a coupled approach to flood risk estimation quantify those risks more effectively? 5. How will biogeochemical and nutrient cycles respond to current and future variability in the hydrological cycle, especially under conditions of changing climate and land-cover? 6. To what extent can assimilation of observed hydrological states and fluxes (e.g., soil moisture and stream flow) improve hydrological and meteorological predictions, and on what time-scales? 7. Can uncertainty in large-scale hydrological predictions be attributed to specific hydrological processes in order to target future process-based research? 8. What is the sensitivity of Earth system components (e.g., vegetation, carbon cycle, aerosols, land ice, sea ice, ocean circulation and biogeochemistry) to changes in the hydrological cycle; and can enhanced representation of terrestrial hydrology in Earth system models help constrain responses to such changes?

Publications

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