NCEO NC ODA Extension 2020-2021

The NCEO NC-ODA programme is focussed on a series of generic science issues that are particularly relevant to development challenges: characterisation and forecasting of land surface state including vegetation change and soil moisture; the evolution of forest carbon and characterisation of carbon fluxes arising from deforestation and degradation; the dynamic nature of fires, their emissions into the atmosphere and the development of large-scale air pollution; the development of a cadre of researchers and applications specialists trained in state-of-the-art Earth Observation (EO).
We will address specific problems faced by DAC countries: the vulnerability of crop yields in semi-arid regions in Africa to drought, the challenge of protecting and enhancing forest resources from Kenya across sub-Saharan Africa, to mitigate climate change, the forecast skill necessary to capture hazardous air quality in South-East Asia stemming from open biomass burning, and the current lack of capacity of many African nations to make effective use of satellite EO data.
The programme is structured into four WPs. Relevant UN Sustainable Development Goals are: 2 (Zero hunger), 3 (Good health and well-being), 13 (Climate action), 15 (Life on Land), and 17 (Partnership for the goals).
WP 1 will improve crop yield modelling in Ghana and then across sub-Saharan Africa through data assimilation of multiple EO data streams, for example effective leaf area index and soil moisture. The research will yield new knowledge on the value of accurate EO data parameters in a data-model system, to better characterise crop change and increase predictive skill, to examine upscaling from landscape to country scale, and improve soil moisture forecast skill [SGDs 2, 15]. It will support an improved TAMSAT-ALERT system.
WP 2 will extend a baseline of carbon emissions from deforestation across sub-Saharan Africa, identify different types of deforestation and degradation from synthetic aperture radar, optical and laser ranging (LiDAR) data, and establish areas that are suitable for afforestation. It will test new datasets in Kenya to ensure validity and to continue to support the Vision 2030 of the Kenyan Government that aims to increase forest cover from 6 to 10 per cent by 2030. The work will establish forest reference emission levels and above-ground carbon stocks in a regional context. This research is key to understanding carbon cycling estimates in a REDD+ policy context. [SGDs 13, 15].
WP 3 will develop and demonstrate new data sources that can improve forecast accuracy for large-scale air pollution during fire events. Currently, forecast models use estimates of fires that fail to capture the magnitude and variability of dynamic large forest and peatland fires and fires due to agricultural residue burning. The research will improve pollutant emissions estimates from fires, EO-based retrievals of smoke plume aerosols and auto-identification of biomass-burning plumes. We will work with stakeholders in the ASEAN countries to co-develop and demonstrate new systems, characterise improvements and train staff in the interpretation of complex EO data. We will implement the fire component of WP3 in sub-Saharan Africa improving carbon estimates and coupling drought with fire knowledge. [SDGs 3, 13].
WP 4 will build capacity through international EO-related initiatives, including the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) AfriGEOSS initiative and the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Working Group on Capacity Building & Data Democracy, to improve access to and use of contemporary EO datasets in African nations and other DAC nations. Work will include scoping of UK-related EO projects and experts related to AfriGEO identified needs, extension of the training of WP1-3 to wider DAC countries and to strategic capacity building, co-ordinated work with the relevant GEO initiatives of GFOI and GEOGLAM, and support of access to EO data for DAC countries.

This programme directly and primarily benefits stakeholder organisation and partners in DAC countries. Impact will be achievable for our current stakeholders in Ghana, Kenya and Indonesia and wider regional partnerships. Impactful actions will also occur via the wider international community participating in AfriGEO, WGCapD, GFOI, GEOGLAM, AfriGAM and GWIS.
There are three main groups of beneficiaries:
1. Public agencies, national and regional governments
2. Non-governmental organisations, international aid organisations, the UN community and its programmes
3. The general public, local communities in Ghana, Ethiopia, Kenya and South-East Asia
These groups will benefit from making progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals 2 (Zero hunger), 3 (Good health and well-being), 13 (Climate action), 15 (Life on Land), and 17 (Partnership for the goals).
More accurate crop yield models using EO data assimilation will provide better information to stakeholders in semi-arid Africa and other DAC countries (WP1). This is expected to lead to positive development impact by reducing hunger because of crop failure during drought. Government agencies and aid organisations will be able to respond more effectively, based on more accurate crop yield forecasts. The dryland savannah zone of the Northern region of Ghana occupies 40 per cent of the country and farming there is under pressure from rapid population growth and vulnerable to rainfall fluctuations. In Ethiopia the agricultural sector is a cornerstone of the economy, employs 80-85 per cent of people and contributes about 40 per cent of total GDP. During the drought in 2016, 18 million people there depended on food aid. Even a small reduction in the uncertainty in crop yield predictions could have a substantial impact.
The research on deforestation and afforestation potential in Kenya will directly benefit the Kenya Forest Service, Forestry Society of Kenya and the stakeholders in the national REDD+ forum by providing baseline deforestation rates, aboveground biomass data that can be used to estimate greenhouse gas emissions and their reduction under forest protection policies, as well as identifying areas with potential for afforestation based on model simulations. Fire effects will also be included for the first time. The research will support Kenya's afforestation target written into its constitutional 'Vision 2030', and its goal to achieve REDD+ Readiness. Kenya is set to benefit from financial incentives under REDD+, such as from the UK's £5.8 billion International Climate Fund. Positive action in Kenya will motivate other African countries to continue to build their own efforts.
More accurate information on fire activity and the related atmospheric pollutants in South-East Asia will potentially benefit the 620 million people living in the region's DAC-List countries, through support to national monitoring efforts and to policies such as the Transboundary Agreement on Haze Pollution that aims to limit burning and its atmospheric and human health impacts, particularly in drought years with catastrophic fire outbreaks. Better understanding of the air pollution impacts of fires for policy makers will lead to improved efforts to reduce fires and lower public exposure to air pollution, thus lowering morbidity and mortality rates from respiratory and coronary diseases. NCEO will build on the South East Asia experience to accelerate access to fire-related health information for African countries.
The support for AfriGEO will benefit the participating African nations and international organisations to access contemporary EO datasets more effectively. The UK GEO/CEOS office will also benefit the UK by making EO capability more visible on the international stage and promoting EO know-how and funded. WP4 will enable many African nations to access EO data from satellites more effectively, bringing associated health and commercial benefits.