SWIMMR Aviation Risk Modelling (SWARM)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Central Lancashire
Department Name: Jeremiah Horrocks Institute
Abstract
There is growing awareness of the hazards arising from space weather which are now listed on the UK National Risk Register. One significant risk is created by 'hard' solar particle events containing a significant flux of particles with energies greater than 300 MeV. In general such solar events are detectable at the Earth's surface by ground level neutron monitors and are termed ground level enhancements (GLEs) and typically have durations of some hours, the most intense so far measured being in February 1956 in the UK. GLEs present a hazard to modern complex systems, especially aircraft, as the particles generated in the atmosphere can cause malfunctions and damage to microelectronic technology. In addition undesirable levels of effective dose to aircrew and passengers can arise during GLEs. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has recently identified the need to improve space weather radiation information provided to aircraft but to do so will require a widely distributed observational network, accompanied by validated radiation environment models to interpolate between observation sites and interpret the data into the effects of concern (effective dose rates and electronic upset rates). In parallel the Met Office, which is the UK government's 'owner' for space weather risks and a major provider of meteorological services for ICAO airlines, has recognised that it does not currently have the capability to provide the necessary services for space weather radiation hazards.
Consequently SWARM will develop a new data-driven atmospheric radiation model (Model for Atmospheric Ionising Radiation Environments, or MAIRE+) based on an existing prototype (MAIRE) to enable the Met Office to nowcast the secondary particle fluxes, biological dose rates and electronic upset/failure rates throughout the atmosphere arising from both galactic cosmic rays and GLEs. To drive MAIRE+, real-time ground level neutron monitor data, geomagnetic disturbance indices and sunspot indices will be used. Global maps based on the ICAO global grid (15 degrees longitude, 10 degrees latitude) covering altitudes up to 60kft with 3kft altitude resolution will be provided. The dose rate maps will allow Met Office to issue alerts based on the ICAO thresholds for the affected regions. Internal models and tools will be revised to account for the most recent scientific knowledge, including updating cosmic ray and magnetic field models and improving calculations of biological dose and upset/failure rates in electronics. The new MAIRE+ model will be delivered to the Met Office and then a lengthy period of operation and validation will follow using live data sources to assess its performance.
SWARM will also develop new and challenging capabilities such as increasing the model validity range to 100km altitude for GLEs (which will be important for future space tourism and high altitude aviation) and forecasting the time-profile of a GLE once it has started. For the latter, advanced models of interplanetary propagation of particles emitted from the Sun will be used and their particle energy range increased to deal with the energies required for GLEs. These new features will be incorporated into a 'research' model 'MAIRE-R' (also delivered to the Met office), however it will necessarily be less mature than the nowcast model. Finally, to address the extremely difficult problem of predicting the onset of a GLE, we will review the evidence from the historic record to determine if any solar precursor signatures for this sub-set of events can be found which could prove a valuable aid to Met Office forecasters.
Consequently SWARM will develop a new data-driven atmospheric radiation model (Model for Atmospheric Ionising Radiation Environments, or MAIRE+) based on an existing prototype (MAIRE) to enable the Met Office to nowcast the secondary particle fluxes, biological dose rates and electronic upset/failure rates throughout the atmosphere arising from both galactic cosmic rays and GLEs. To drive MAIRE+, real-time ground level neutron monitor data, geomagnetic disturbance indices and sunspot indices will be used. Global maps based on the ICAO global grid (15 degrees longitude, 10 degrees latitude) covering altitudes up to 60kft with 3kft altitude resolution will be provided. The dose rate maps will allow Met Office to issue alerts based on the ICAO thresholds for the affected regions. Internal models and tools will be revised to account for the most recent scientific knowledge, including updating cosmic ray and magnetic field models and improving calculations of biological dose and upset/failure rates in electronics. The new MAIRE+ model will be delivered to the Met Office and then a lengthy period of operation and validation will follow using live data sources to assess its performance.
SWARM will also develop new and challenging capabilities such as increasing the model validity range to 100km altitude for GLEs (which will be important for future space tourism and high altitude aviation) and forecasting the time-profile of a GLE once it has started. For the latter, advanced models of interplanetary propagation of particles emitted from the Sun will be used and their particle energy range increased to deal with the energies required for GLEs. These new features will be incorporated into a 'research' model 'MAIRE-R' (also delivered to the Met office), however it will necessarily be less mature than the nowcast model. Finally, to address the extremely difficult problem of predicting the onset of a GLE, we will review the evidence from the historic record to determine if any solar precursor signatures for this sub-set of events can be found which could prove a valuable aid to Met Office forecasters.
Planned Impact
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has recently identified the need to improve space weather radiation information provided to aircraft but to do so will require a widely distributed observational network, accompanied by validated radiation environment models to interpolate between observation sites and interpret the data into the effects of concern (effective dose rates and electronic upset/failure rates). In parallel the Met Office, which is the UK government's 'owner' for space weather risks and a major provider of meteorological services for ICAO airlines, has recognised that it does not have the capability to provide the necessary services in respect of space weather radiation hazards. SWARM will thus satisfy the requirement for a Met Office modelling capability for space weather atmospheric radiation, initially providing global nowcasting but also providing a route towards forecasting as well. Ultimately, SWARM will enable better management of the risk to aviation from space weather radiation and hence provides significant benefits to airlines, civil aviation authorities, regulators, the aircraft engineering industry and indeed all passengers and crews.
Organisations
- University of Central Lancashire (Lead Research Organisation)
- University of Arizona (Collaboration)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) (Collaboration)
- University College London (Collaboration)
- ETH Zurich (Collaboration)
- University of Surrey (Collaboration)
- Johns Hopkins University (Collaboration)
- University of Oulu (Collaboration)
People |
ORCID iD |
Silvia Dalla (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Bruno A
(2023)
Statistical Relationship between Long-duration High-energy Gamma-Ray Emission and Solar Energetic Particles
in The Astrophysical Journal
Desai M
(2023)
Energetic Particle Propagation in Three Dimensions
in Bulletin of the AAS
Hutchinson A
(2023)
Impact of corotation on gradual solar energetic particle event intensity profiles
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Hutchinson A
(2022)
Energetic proton back-precipitation onto the solar atmosphere in relation to long-duration gamma-ray flares
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Hutchinson A
(2023)
Modelling shock-like injections of solar energetic particles with 3D test particle simulations
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Kouloumvakos A
(2024)
The multi-spacecraft high-energy solar particle event of 28 October 2021
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Laitinen T
(2023)
An Analytical Model of Turbulence in Parker Spiral Geometry and Associated Magnetic Field Line Lengths
in The Astrophysical Journal
Description | The heliospheric current sheet has been found to play a key role in the transport of high energy solar energetic particles (SEPs). The correlation between SEP peak intensities and the speed of the associated coronal mass ejections is much smaller for proton energies >300 MeV than at lower energy. A new SPARX SEP forecasting model for proton energies >300 MeV has been developed. A separate new in-progress Ground Level Enhancement forecasting model, using machine learning methods, has been developed. |
Exploitation Route | The models developed have been made available to the Met Office for Space Weather forecasting. |
Sectors | Aerospace Defence and Marine |
Description | The models developed are being used within the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre |
First Year Of Impact | 2023 |
Sector | Aerospace, Defence and Marine |
Impact Types | Societal Economic |
Description | A. Kouloumvalos, A. Papaiannou, GLE 73 |
Organisation | Johns Hopkins University |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Collaboration with A. Kouloumvalos and A. Papaiannou to analyse the Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) 73. |
Collaborator Contribution | Simulations of GLE 73 with our test particle code were carried out, compared with observations and discussed regularly during telecons. The results have been written up in a publication which has been submitted. |
Impact | Publication submitted to Astronomy and Astrophysics. Title: The multi-spacecraft high-energy solar particle event of 28 October 2021. |
Start Year | 2022 |
Description | Dr Georgia De Nolfo, NASA Goodard Space Flight Center |
Organisation | National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) |
Country | United States |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Dr Georgia De Nolfo visited us for a week in January 2018 to work on comparing PAMELA spacecraft data with our simulations of SEP propagation. This collaboration is ongoing. |
Collaborator Contribution | 3D test particle simulations of relativistic protons during flare/CME events. |
Impact | Conference presentation at SHINE Meeting 2018 and at ICRC 2019. Two refereed journal papers currently in preparation. |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | Drs Keith Ryan, Alex Hands, Fan Lei, University of Surrey |
Organisation | University of Surrey |
Department | Surrey Space Centre |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Cooperation in deriving models for space weather forecasting of radiation risk to aviation |
Collaborator Contribution | Modelling radiation transfer through the atmosphere |
Impact | Models for space weather forecasting |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | ISSI International Team: Solar Extreme Events - Setting up a Paradigm |
Organisation | ETH Zurich |
Country | Switzerland |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Research on extreme solar particle events |
Collaborator Contribution | Research on extreme solar particle events |
Impact | Publications in progress |
Start Year | 2021 |
Description | ISSI International Team: Solar Extreme Events - Setting up a Paradigm |
Organisation | University of Arizona |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Research on extreme solar particle events |
Collaborator Contribution | Research on extreme solar particle events |
Impact | Publications in progress |
Start Year | 2021 |
Description | ISSI International Team: Solar Extreme Events - Setting up a Paradigm |
Organisation | University of Oulu |
Country | Finland |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Research on extreme solar particle events |
Collaborator Contribution | Research on extreme solar particle events |
Impact | Publications in progress |
Start Year | 2021 |
Description | Prof Lucie Green, Dr Stephanie Yardley, MSSL |
Organisation | University College London |
Department | Mullard Space Science Laboratory |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Simulations of SEP propagation |
Collaborator Contribution | Analysis of solar eruptions |
Impact | Better understanding of eruptive phenomena at the Sun, to be incorporated into forecasting models. |
Start Year | 2020 |
Title | FORGE |
Description | FORGE (FOrecasting Relativistic particles during GLE Events) is an in-progress Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) forecasting tool for Space Weather. GLEs are sudden enhancements in neutron counts at ground level, associated with solar eruptions and cause mainly by protons of energy > 500 MeV. FORGE is triggered by the detection of a GLE by a neutron monitor and it predicts the evolution of the GLE event. It utilises outputs of 3D test particle simulations and machine learning methods to forecast >500MeV and >1000MeV solar energetic particle (SEP) proton flux profiles near Earth. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Impact | The software has been made available to the Met Office Space Weather Operation Centre. |
Title | SPARX High Energy |
Description | SPARX High Energy is a software tool that forecasts Solar Energetic Particle events for protons of energy >300 MeV. It forecasts fluxes of >300 MeV protons at Earth following detection of a solar eruption. The software is fully described in this publication: Waterfall, C. O. G., Dalla, S., Marsh, M.S., Laitinen, T., & Hutchinson, A. (2023). Forecasting >300 MeV SEP events: Extending SPARX to high energies. Space Weather, 21, e2023SW003445. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003445 |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Impact | The software has been made available to the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre to be used for Space Weather forecasting. |
URL | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003445 |
Description | Jeremiah Horrocks Public Lecture |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Approximately 100 members of the public attended the public lecture "Weather in Space: how to forecast a radiation storm" given by Prof Silvia Dalla on 19th October 2021. This is part of a longstanding series of public lectures organised by the Jeremiah Horrocks Institute. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | http://www.star.uclan.ac.uk/2021/10/06/the-jeremiah-horrocks-lecture-weather-in-space-how-to-forecas... |