STORMY-WEATHER: Plausible storm hazards in a future climate
Lead Research Organisation:
Newcastle University
Department Name: Sch of Engineering
Abstract
Climate change is arguably the biggest challenge facing people this century, and changes to the intensity and frequency of climatic and hydrologic extremes will have large impacts on our communities. The 2017 Climate Change Risk Assessment identified floods and windstorms as likely to have a strong impact on key infrastructure sectors in the UK with climate change. Extreme rainfall is becoming more intense with warming, and short-duration bursts within storms appears to be increasing at a higher rate. However, we still don't understand how changes in large scale atmospheric patterns, the storm track, the release of energy from evaporation and other factors will influence the profile of the storm in time and as well as their frequencies and how long they last for. This is partly due to the fact that most scientific studies have concentrated on 'peak intensity' changes over fixed durations, e.g. daily, multi-day, hourly, etc. Alongside this, most studies look at the likely range of change even though the most important risks rarely lie within this range. Instead, the most important risks are often associated with the 'plausible worst case' scenario.
In STORMY-WEATHER we are producing a new methodology based on different 'storm' types to understand the drivers behind the changes and to produce a set of physically-plausible high-impact storm hazard storylines and metrics that people can use to plan for the future. These will use the latest climate projections. We use climate models to tell us about what weather in the future will be like and these computer models are based on fundamental physical laws and complicated mathematical equations which necessarily simplify real processes. One of the simplifications that really seems to matter is that of deep convection (imagine the type of processes that cause a thunderstorm). However, computers are so powerful now that we are able to produce models that work on smaller and smaller scales, and recently we have developed models which we call "convection-permitting" where we stop using these simplifications of deep convection. These "convection-permitting" models are not necessarily better at simulating mean rainfall or rainfall occurrence but they are much better at simulating intense rainfall over short time periods (less than one day) which cause flooding, in particular flash-flood events. They are also better at simulating the increase in heavy rainfall with temperature rise that we can observe; therefore we are more confident in their projections of changes in heavy rainfall for the future.
We will use these new models as well as global climate models more commonly used to assess the uncertainty in our projections of the future. We will consider changing temperatures as the potential driver of change to storm hazards, including precipitation and wind as joint hazards. Our storm-type approach will help clarify hazard from different rainfall mechanisms and their scaling rates with temperature, alongside combined wind and rain hazard from storms, as well as their changing nature with warming; characteristics that are vital for planning for impacts (e.g. flooding, infrastructure failure, transport and energy systems, etc.) The focus on storm properties is balanced against the need to understand the impact of potential changes to large-scale circulation patterns on storm hazards, e.g. frequency/persistence changes, and, in particular, the possibility of circulation-driven changes to the dominant event type across regions.
Ultimately, we need better information on how extreme weather events might change in the future on which to make adaptation decisions and STORMY-WEATHER intends to provide this important advance, alongside translating this information into useful tools and metrics for use in climate change adaptation.
In STORMY-WEATHER we are producing a new methodology based on different 'storm' types to understand the drivers behind the changes and to produce a set of physically-plausible high-impact storm hazard storylines and metrics that people can use to plan for the future. These will use the latest climate projections. We use climate models to tell us about what weather in the future will be like and these computer models are based on fundamental physical laws and complicated mathematical equations which necessarily simplify real processes. One of the simplifications that really seems to matter is that of deep convection (imagine the type of processes that cause a thunderstorm). However, computers are so powerful now that we are able to produce models that work on smaller and smaller scales, and recently we have developed models which we call "convection-permitting" where we stop using these simplifications of deep convection. These "convection-permitting" models are not necessarily better at simulating mean rainfall or rainfall occurrence but they are much better at simulating intense rainfall over short time periods (less than one day) which cause flooding, in particular flash-flood events. They are also better at simulating the increase in heavy rainfall with temperature rise that we can observe; therefore we are more confident in their projections of changes in heavy rainfall for the future.
We will use these new models as well as global climate models more commonly used to assess the uncertainty in our projections of the future. We will consider changing temperatures as the potential driver of change to storm hazards, including precipitation and wind as joint hazards. Our storm-type approach will help clarify hazard from different rainfall mechanisms and their scaling rates with temperature, alongside combined wind and rain hazard from storms, as well as their changing nature with warming; characteristics that are vital for planning for impacts (e.g. flooding, infrastructure failure, transport and energy systems, etc.) The focus on storm properties is balanced against the need to understand the impact of potential changes to large-scale circulation patterns on storm hazards, e.g. frequency/persistence changes, and, in particular, the possibility of circulation-driven changes to the dominant event type across regions.
Ultimately, we need better information on how extreme weather events might change in the future on which to make adaptation decisions and STORMY-WEATHER intends to provide this important advance, alongside translating this information into useful tools and metrics for use in climate change adaptation.
Organisations
- Newcastle University (Lead Research Organisation)
- Meteorological Office UK (Collaboration)
- European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) (Collaboration)
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (Collaboration)
- University of Bristol (Collaboration)
- Willis Towers Watson (United Kingdom) (Project Partner)
- Scottish Environment Protection Agency (Project Partner)
- Environment Agency (Project Partner)
Publications
Allan RP
(2020)
Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change.
in Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
Ban N
(2021)
The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation
in Climate Dynamics
Bevacqua E
(2021)
Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events
in Earth's Future
Blunden J
(2021)
State of the Climate in 2020
in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Catto J
(2021)
Understanding compound hazards from a weather system perspective
in Weather and Climate Extremes
Chan S
(2023)
Large-scale dynamics moderate impact-relevant changes to organised convective storms
in Communications Earth & Environment
Fowler H
(2022)
Rainfall
Fowler H
(2021)
Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes
in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
Description | a. The weather system typology based on ERA-Interim and lightning observations has been used to investigate the risk of individual and compound hazards of extreme precipitation, extreme wind gusts and extreme waves. b. The weather system type of cyclone, front and thunderstorm gives the biggest increased risk of most hazards. c. Compound events of winds and waves have a causal effect and are not strongly influenced by the weather system type, whereas compound events of precipitation and winds are most common with cyclones and fronts. d. We have assessed windstorms in the UKCP18 ensemble. The high-resolution simulations run at 2.2 km and 12 km horizontal resolution project large increases in the frequency of intense cyclones over the UK. A large proportion of the increase in very extreme storms is driven by those that develop sting jets. The coarser resolution simulation (60 km) underestimates windstorm intensity and projects a much lower increase in extreme windstorms. e. We find that there is evidence of higher scaling of precipitation with temperature for storm types that include thunderstorm (or deep convective) activity. |
Exploitation Route | In planning for climate change adaptation |
Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Energy Environment Transport |
Description | In: Slingo, J., Davies, P., Fowler, H. 2021. Weather Advisory Task Force. Final Report, pp77. https://www.networkrail.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Network-Rail-Weather-Advisory-Task-Force-Final-Report.pdf Also used in many media reports and articles |
First Year Of Impact | 2021 |
Sector | Environment,Transport |
Impact Types | Societal |
Description | British Hydrological Society President |
Geographic Reach | Europe |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
Impact | BHS president |
Description | Director of the NERC One Planet Doctoral Training Programme |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Impact | ONE Planet DTP delivering a transdisclipinary training environment to train future leaders in environmental science and application connected to climate change. |
Description | External Examiner for MSc in Water Science Policy and Management, Oxford University |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Description | Member of BEIS Science Expert Group |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
Description | Member of Institute of Civil Engineers Flooding Community Advisory Board, UK |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
Description | NERC E4 DTP External Advisory Panel, Edinburgh University - Hayley Fowler |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Description | NERC PRC Panel B Chair |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Description | cco-chair of net zero task force in Newcastle |
Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
Policy Influence Type | Membership of a guideline committee |
Impact | Released climate change net zero action plan in September 2020. Newcastle named a global 'climate leader' by the CDP in Nov 2020. The city is one of only four places in the UK to receive the top "A" grade from international climate research provider CDP, and one of only 88 globally. CDP scores cities across four consecutive levels which represent the steps cities move through as they progress towards environmental stewardship. The levels are: Disclosure, Awareness, Management and Leadership. Over 830 cities disclosed their climate data through CDP in 2020 and in order to score an A rating a city must have a city-wide emissions inventory, have set an emissions reduction target, published a climate action plan and have completed a climate adaptation plan to demonstrate how it will tackle climate hazards now and in the future. |
URL | https://www.newcastle.gov.uk/our-city/climate-change-newcastle/net-zero-newcastle-2030-action-plan |
Description | ACCELERATE |
Amount | £100,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Western Power Distribution |
Sector | Private |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 01/2022 |
End | 12/2022 |
Description | Climate Services-NOW |
Amount | £5,000,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Government of the UK |
Department | Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start |
Description | NSFGEO-NERC: HUrricane Risk Amplification and Changing North Atlantic Natural disasters (Huracan) |
Amount | £2,366,159 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/W009587/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2023 |
End | 02/2027 |
Description | Research Hub for Decarbonised Adaptable and Resilient Transport Infrastructures (DARe) |
Amount | £10,568,485 (GBP) |
Funding ID | EP/Y024257/1 |
Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 08/2023 |
End | 03/2027 |
Title | Development of objective front identification code |
Description | Development of objective front identification code, written in R, that will be shareable. This can be applied to higher resolution data than previous front identification methods could, and it improves results with lower resolution data. This is a key outcome of the project. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2022 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | none yet |
Title | Extra-tropical cyclone statistics from OpenIFS aquaplanet simulations |
Description | This data set is derived from three idealised modelling experiments that were performed with the global numerical weather prediction model, OpenIFS. Three aqua-planet experiments were performed that differed only in their sea surface temperatures. There was a control simulation, case where the sea surface temperatures were warmed everywhere by 4K and a case where the polar sea surface temperatures were increased by 5K. In all three experiments, the extra-tropical cyclones were identified. The data presented in this data set is the maximum vorticity and precipitation of all of these extra-tropical cyclones. This data set is used by Sinclair and Catto (2023) in their study. Sinclair, V. A. and Catto, J. L.: The relationship between extra-tropical cyclone intensity and precipitation in idealised current and future climates, Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-62, in review, 2022. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
URL | https://zenodo.org/record/8027866 |
Title | Tool/algorithm to detect sting-jets within windstorms |
Description | We have developed a tool to detect sting-jets within windstorms as well as windstorms that have the potential to produce sting-jets. Sting-jets are a mesoscale phenomenon that produce extremely damaging wind gusts and require high-resolution models to adequately represent them. This is a low-cost approach that may be applied to high-resolution climate simulations and has potential to be used by forecasters to help with predicting windstorms that may have an extreme impact. Existing approaches to detect sting-jets are not feasible for climate analyses as they require high amounts of output which is very costly to store. This low-cost alternative allows for climatological analyses of sting-jets in high-resolution climate simulations. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | none yet |
Title | cyclone identification and front identification methods |
Description | We have adapted previously developed cyclone identification and front identification methods for use on higher resolution datasets. |
Type Of Material | Data analysis technique |
Year Produced | 2020 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | None yet |
URL | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100313 |
Description | Collaboration with Paul Davies at UK Met office |
Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Paul Davies is now a Prof of Practice at Newcastle University. We are working together on improving forecasting methods for extreme rainstorms causing flooding |
Collaborator Contribution | Improved weather forecasts |
Impact | Slingo, J., Davies, P., Fowler, H. 2021. Weather Advisory Task Force. Final Report, pp77. https://www.networkrail.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Network-Rail-Weather-Advisory-Task-Force-Final-Report.pdf |
Start Year | 2021 |
Description | Joint position taken at Bristol University |
Organisation | University of Bristol |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Dr Lizzie Kendon has taken up a joint position at Bristol University 1 day per week. The aim is to build collaborations that will allow us to achieve benefits for high resolution regional modelling. |
Collaborator Contribution | Benefit will be gained from their expertise, intellectual input and guidance on needs of hydrological community. |
Impact | Collaboration has only just commenced |
Start Year | 2021 |
Description | Scientists contributing to the COST Action DAMOCLES |
Organisation | European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) |
Department | COST Action |
Country | Belgium |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | We wrote a paper together detailing guidelines to follow when assessing compound extreme events. I helped organise a workshop to bring together experts to co-develop guidelines and I led the analysis and writing on one of four sections of the paper. |
Collaborator Contribution | Everyone contributed to the development of guidelines, analysis and writing. |
Impact | https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021EF002340 |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | US National Center for Atmospheric Research |
Organisation | National Center for Atmospheric Research |
Country | United States |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Diagnosing the same from km-scale climate model simulations |
Collaborator Contribution | On the analysis of organised convective storms over Europe, providing satellite analysis for indices for organised convective storm |
Impact | ? Paper was submitted 2021 without the satellite analysis; paper is being revised. |
Start Year | 2021 |
Title | front_id: Meteorological front identification |
Description | Meteorological front identification and classification using the method of Hewson (1998). References: Sansom, P.G. and Catto, J.L. (2022), Improved objective identification of meteorological fronts: a case study with ERA-Interim. Geoscientific Model Development. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2022 |
Open Source License? | Yes |
URL | https://zenodo.org/record/7278067 |
Description | Article written for The Conversation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | We wrote an article for the conversation to explain why storm Eunice was so severe and our current knowledge on future changes in extreme windstorms. This article has been accessed over 24,000 times and republished in a number of different media outlets. We have also engaged with other media outlets including The I. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://theconversation.com/why-storm-eunice-was-so-severe-and-will-violent-wind-storms-become-more-... |
Description | Blog post on hourly rainfall extremes |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | A review of the latest science on changes in rainfall extremes for the Carbon Brief website and what this might mean for flood risk Links: https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-hourly-rainfall-extremes-are-changing-in-a-warming-climate Outcome: the article was published to coincide with COP26. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-hourly-rainfall-extremes-are-changing-in-a-warming-climat... |
Description | Breakfast Briefing on 'The rising cost of global flood risk: managing climate change impacts in practice' at Lloyds Library, London in June 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Breakfast Briefing on 'The rising cost of global flood risk: managing climate change impacts in practice' at Lloyds Library, |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Briefing document on extreme rainfall and flooding |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | A review of the evidence for changes in rainfall extremes and links to flooding was undertaken with a report aimed at being accessible to journalists and interested members of the public in the run up to COP26. Links: https://sciencebrief.org/topics/climate-change-science/extreme-rainfall-and-climate-change and https://sciencebrief.org/uploads/reviews/ScienceBrief_Review_RAINFALL_Jun2021.pdf Outcome: The report has been published as part of the Tyndall Centre series of Climate Briefs and was featured in The i Newspaper (https://inews.co.uk/news/climate-change-flash-flooding-cities-1037926) |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://sciencebrief.org/topics/climate-change-science/extreme-rainfall-and-climate-change |
Description | Briefing document on global water issues |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Contributed to a report by Sainsbury's and PwC UK on addressing global water issues Year: 2021 A review of global water issues and how they might be addressed. Links: https://www.about.sainsburys.co.uk/sustainability/plan-for-better/our-stories/2021/water%20report Outcome: the report was launched and published as part of their COP26 programme and features a series of recommendations to help address current water issues |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.about.sainsburys.co.uk/sustainability/plan-for-better/our-stories/2021/water%20report |
Description | Climate Resilience Programme Online Seminar |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | 100 people attended webinar presenting method for development of new guidance for UK urban drainage design |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Climate impacts on social housing |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Gave verbal evidence to a social housing tenants' climate jury on social housing organised by the Northern Housing Association. Gave a presentation to the jury on the topic of the impacts of climate change, providing evidence on the scale of the potential impacts. A question session followed with the submission of further questions to which I responded. The purpose of the activity was to provide evidence to the jury to derive their own recommendations for the social housing sector. These were subsequently published in a report. Outcome: A written report was produced by the NHA providing a set of recommendations for how the sector can address the causes and consequences of climate change |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.northern-consortium.org.uk/the-social-housing-tenants-climate-jury/ |
Description | Conversation article |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Writing for The Conversation, Professor Hayley Fowler and Dr Colin Manning discuss why Storm Eunice is so severe - and whether violent wind storms will become more common. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.ncl.ac.uk/press/articles/latest/2022/02/conversationstormeunice/ |
Description | Expert panel discussion on Climate and Weather Risks at Met Office Climate Science Conference - Science for a resilient future (online), 11th May 2021. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Expert panel discussion on Climate and Weather Risks at Met Office Climate Science Conference - Science for a resilient future (online), 11th May 2021. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/conferences/met-office-science-conference |
Description | GEWEX flood workshop - keynote. 22/09/23 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | GEWEX flood workshop - keynote. Online workshop. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Interview for German TV programme about the 2021 German summer floods |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | TV programme will go out on German and French TV on 28th June 2022 for anniversary of the July 2021 German floods. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Interview for Sky News |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Interview of Sky News about Storm Eunice and climate change on day Storm Eunice hit |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Interview with BBC Panorama |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Interviewed for BBC Panorama programme on "Britain's wild weather" broadcast on 7th December 2020. Material presented to the Panorama team included results from Dr Steven Chan looking at hourly precipitation extremes and their future change for 3 locations of interest (Mytholmroyd, Hampton Bishop and West Hayes). |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000q5zz |
Description | Invited Panelist at Panel Discussion: Net Zero: Interactions between mitigation and adaptation. EPSRC ENZ: Engineering Net Zero Showcase, University of Glasgow, 21-23rd June 2022. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Invited Panelist at Panel Discussion: Net Zero: Interactions between mitigation and adaptation. EPSRC ENZ: Engineering Net Zero Showcase, University of Glasgow, 21-23rd June 2022. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Invited expert for Roundtable with Rt Hon Anne-Marie Trevelyan MP for World Environment Day, 14th July 2021. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Invited expert for Roundtable with Rt Hon Anne-Marie Trevelyan MP for World Environment Day, 14th July 2021. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Invited expert panel member at session on Climate Services to build prosperity and inform security at Civil Service Live 2021 (online), 17th June 2021. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Invited expert panel member at session on Climate Services to build prosperity and inform security at Civil Service Live 2021 (online), 17th June 2021. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Invited panel member for session on "Inclusive transition and circular economy" at the NE Green Economy Summit, 23rd June 2021. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Invited panel member for session on "Inclusive transition and circular economy" at the NE Green Economy Summit, 23rd June 2021. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Invited panelist at WIG Webinar: Maintaining Momentum in Climate Action post-COP26: the Race to Resilience, 14th December 2021. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Invited panelist at WIG Webinar: Maintaining Momentum in Climate Action post-COP26: the Race to Resilience, 14th December 2021. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Invited panelist in Newcastle Debates: How will the North East confront the climate crisis? 5th October, 2021 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Invited panelist in Newcastle Debates: How will the North East confront the climate crisis? 5th October, 2021 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Invited participant in Panel discussion on "Do we need the fossil fuel industry to help in the transition towards net zero?", Newcastle public Lectures, 28th October 2021. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Invited participant in Panel discussion on "Do we need the fossil fuel industry to help in the transition towards net zero?", Newcastle public Lectures, 28th October 2021. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Invited public lecture to Royal Society of Chemistry Lancaster and District section, 7th December 2021. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Invited public lecture to Royal Society of Chemistry Lancaster and District section, 7th December 2021. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Invited talk at workshop on climate risks in Oslo at NORSE - May 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Talk in oslo at natural hazards workshop |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Invited to private round table for inquiry by JNSS on climate adaptation and critical national infrastructure |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Invited to private round table for inquiry by JNSS on climate adaptation and critical national infrastructure |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Keynote at CPCM meeting, Bergen, Norway August 2023 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | convection permitting modelling conference in Norway - invited keynote |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Meet the EA Flood and Coastal Risk Management Team - workshop 4/12/23 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Meet the EA Flood and Coastal Risk Management Team - workshop |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Member of panel discussion on climate action at local scales, Tyndall Assembly, September 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Tyndal panel |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Met Office Climate Data Hackathon - Exeter, March 2021 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | o Production of a 3D display model of future sea level rise and coastal flooding for Swansea, using UKCP outputs |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.ukclimateresilience.org/news-events/met-office-climate-data-challenge/ |
Description | National Flood Hydrology Road Map Governance Board Meeting |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | National Flood Hydrology Road Map Governance Board Meeting |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Oral presentation at meeting with representative from Department of BEIS - Colin Manning |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | A 10-minute talk at the meeting to explain our current knowledge of how we expect windstorms, such as storm Arwen, to change in a warmer climate. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Oral presentation at meeting with representatives from Energy Industry - Colin Manning |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | A 15-minute talk at the meeting to explain climate models and how they can be used to help energy companies. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Oral presentation at the Atmospheric Science Conference, by NCAS and RMetS. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | An oral presentation at a themed scientific meeting, with questions and discussions afterwards. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.atmosphericscienceconference.u... |
Description | Oral presentation at workshop on combined wind and rain extremes. - colin manning |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | A 15-minute talk at the meeting. Engaged with the scientists and stakeholders in the group, with discussions afterwards. Stakeholders were particularly interested to see the improvements in the representation of windstorms obtained at high-resolution as well as the larger increases projected by high-resolution simulations compared to coarser resolution simulations. These results have highlighted uncertainties in their catastrophe models that they may need to update as a result. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Panel discussion and talk at climate resilience showcase in London by Colin Manning, March 2023 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Panel discussion at climate resilience showcase including discussion of future drainage outcomes, and science from future-storms and stormy-weather |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Panel discussion on zoom organised by Just Stop Oil 25/01/24 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Panel discussion on zoom organised by Just Stop Oil - panellists Sir Davis King, Roger Hallam from XR and myself. Public facing event to inform on climate change risks. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
Description | Presentation at the European Geophysical Union (EGU) conference by Colin manning |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | A brief oral presentation with with discussion in a breakout room. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU21/EGU21-12795.html |
Description | Presentation to Newcastle Central Labour Party |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Presented a talk on the potential local impacts of climate change and what sort of action is need to prepare/increase resilience. Description: A short talk on how climate change projections are obtained and what they tell us about how our local climate might change and the adaptations we might need to make. Generated a discussion particularly in relation to local policy implications for local and national government. Outcome: provided guidance for people on how the public might better be engaged in discussing this topic |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Research for the Rails; 13/10/23 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Meeting at Crown Plaza hotel to discuss research opportunities with Network Rail |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | SNIFFER Flood Risk Management 2021 conference |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | present project findings at the SNIFFER Flood Risk Management 2021 conference in February 2021 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Seminar at Reading University - Nov 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | seminar |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Seminar to Durham University's Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Seminar to Durham University's Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience by Liz Lewis on Monday 8th March 2021 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Surface water flood forecasting and real-time communication symposium - workshop talk - 10/01/24 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Surface water flood forecasting and real-time communication symposium - workshop |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
Description | Talk at National Climate Impacts meeting in Exeter 12/9/23 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | National Climate Impacts meeting in Exeter hosted by Exeter Uni and UKMO. Many stakeholders, consultants etc and representation from DfT. Conference. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Talk at youth climate change summit in newcastle, 5 July 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | youth climate summit organised by city council |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Talk on net zero and climate risks to NHS conference in Newcastle, June 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | NHS drive to net zero - sustainability session at conference |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Talk on predicting changes in climate and hazardous weather |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Adapting the UK to 3C conference, October 2020. Talk by Dr Lizzie Kendon on "Modelling and predicting changes in climate and hazardous weather". Audience of 100+ including policy makers, adaptation practitioners, representatives from business and charity sectors, and researchers. The aim was to inform policy makers and the wider community about the latest science from high resolution regional climate modelling, where are the key knowledge gaps and opportunities for progress, and what can users expect in terms of new understanding over the next few years |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Talk to industry practitioners |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | A talk to the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management Urban Drainage Group by Dr Stephen Blenkinsop on Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks. The talk presented latest understanding on changes in intense rainfall that causes flash flooding to water industry professionals. There was questioning and discussion with other panel members following the presentation. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | invited talk at EGU 2023 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | invited talk |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | invited talk on Sub-daily precipitation variability and extremes 11/07/23 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Colloquium 'Global Precipitation Data Sets and their Applications - Status Quo and Way Forward' at DWD, Germany and online |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | media interest around storm eunice and sting jets |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | during storm eunice - the day of the storm and previous day I was involved in a number of press interviews (TV, radio, newspapers) |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | presentation to school science club on extreme rainfall and climate change |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | 27th Jan 2022 - gave talk and discussion to Corbridge Middle School science club on extreme rainfall and climate change |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | talk at Flood Nonstationarity and Prediction Workshop 20/07/23 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Flood Nonstationarity and Prediction Workshop talk online |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | visit by ICE president anusha shah -8/3/24 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Institution of Civil Engineering president anusha shah visit to newcastle uni as part of visit to NE |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
Description | webinar 11/03/2024 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Live webinar held as part of Decarbonising Transport Week. Recording also shared publicly for on-demand viewing. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |