UKESM 1 Yr Extension (NCEO)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leicester
Department Name: National Centre for Earth Observation
Abstract
Global climate change is one of the leading environmental threats facing mankind. To develop appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies requires accurate projections of the future state of the Earth's climate. To address this, we develop Global Climate Models (GCMs) that describe the main physical processes in the coupled climate system. These models are integrated forwards in simulated time, from a pre-industrial period to present-day, forced by observed estimates of key greenhouse gases, aerosols and land-use. The models are then continued into the future forced by a range of greenhouse gas, aerosol and land-use scenarios. Each of the model future climates can then compared to the simulated present-day climates. This analysis results in an ensemble of climate change estimates that can be used to assess the socio-economic and ecological impacts of the simulated changes and aid in the development of mitigation and adaptation policies.
GCMs have been further developed into Earth system models (ESMs), as we did in the UKESM LTSM, where UKESM1 was developed from the physical model, HadGEM3-GC3.1. A key difference between ESMs and GCMs is the former include an interactive description of the global carbon cycle supporting analysis of both physical climate change and potential changes in the efficacy by which anthropogenic emitted CO2 is taken up by natural carbon reservoirs. A reduction in the uptake efficiency of Earth's natural carbon reservoirs may result in a larger fraction of emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere to warm the planet. Accurate estimates of the future evolution of both the global climate system and the carbon cycle are therefore crucial for getting a clear picture of the future risks humanity faces, as well as for developing mitigation actions (that typically target modifying the efficacy of carbon uptake) to keep global warming to acceptable levels.
To address this need we developed the 1st UK Earth system model (UKESM1) and ran it for a large suite of experiments in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). UKESM1 is the most advanced Earth system model in the world today and as well as a coupled physical climate model also includes interactive treatment of (i) the global carbon cycle and vegetation, (ii) atmospheric chemistry and aerosols and (iii) models for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We have run a large (19 member) ensemble of historical simulations with UKESM1 (1850 to 2015) and extended a number of these into the future (2015 to 2100) following 7 different future emission pathways from CMIP6 scenarioMIP. In this extension we propose a detailed analysis of the UKESM1 historical ensemble and the suite of scenarioMIP projections. Our aims are (i) to better understand what drives observed historical Earth system change and ask how well UKESM1 represents these changes, (ii) with the knowledge from (i), analyse simulated Earth system change in the UKESM1 scenarioMIP ensemble, combining this with the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, to document the range of simulated changes across the coupled Earth system over the coming century. Two primary emphases in this analysis will be; (a) to document and contrast regional changes at different levels of global mean warming (e.g. 2C or 3C) and (b) where possible, to constrain the various coupled feedbacks simulated by UKESM1 that drive the changes we see. In addition to these two science goals, we will also continue to provide support to the large UK UKESM user and model development community and plan to hold two consultation workshops with (i) UK climate policymakers and (ii) UK climate impacts researchers. In these workshops we will present our findings on predicted future Earth system change and begin a two-way dialogue on how UK Earth system modelling can best serve the needs of these two groups, developing future collaborations based on mutual understanding of each groups needs and goals.
GCMs have been further developed into Earth system models (ESMs), as we did in the UKESM LTSM, where UKESM1 was developed from the physical model, HadGEM3-GC3.1. A key difference between ESMs and GCMs is the former include an interactive description of the global carbon cycle supporting analysis of both physical climate change and potential changes in the efficacy by which anthropogenic emitted CO2 is taken up by natural carbon reservoirs. A reduction in the uptake efficiency of Earth's natural carbon reservoirs may result in a larger fraction of emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere to warm the planet. Accurate estimates of the future evolution of both the global climate system and the carbon cycle are therefore crucial for getting a clear picture of the future risks humanity faces, as well as for developing mitigation actions (that typically target modifying the efficacy of carbon uptake) to keep global warming to acceptable levels.
To address this need we developed the 1st UK Earth system model (UKESM1) and ran it for a large suite of experiments in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). UKESM1 is the most advanced Earth system model in the world today and as well as a coupled physical climate model also includes interactive treatment of (i) the global carbon cycle and vegetation, (ii) atmospheric chemistry and aerosols and (iii) models for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We have run a large (19 member) ensemble of historical simulations with UKESM1 (1850 to 2015) and extended a number of these into the future (2015 to 2100) following 7 different future emission pathways from CMIP6 scenarioMIP. In this extension we propose a detailed analysis of the UKESM1 historical ensemble and the suite of scenarioMIP projections. Our aims are (i) to better understand what drives observed historical Earth system change and ask how well UKESM1 represents these changes, (ii) with the knowledge from (i), analyse simulated Earth system change in the UKESM1 scenarioMIP ensemble, combining this with the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, to document the range of simulated changes across the coupled Earth system over the coming century. Two primary emphases in this analysis will be; (a) to document and contrast regional changes at different levels of global mean warming (e.g. 2C or 3C) and (b) where possible, to constrain the various coupled feedbacks simulated by UKESM1 that drive the changes we see. In addition to these two science goals, we will also continue to provide support to the large UK UKESM user and model development community and plan to hold two consultation workshops with (i) UK climate policymakers and (ii) UK climate impacts researchers. In these workshops we will present our findings on predicted future Earth system change and begin a two-way dialogue on how UK Earth system modelling can best serve the needs of these two groups, developing future collaborations based on mutual understanding of each groups needs and goals.
Publications
Balasus N
(2023)
A blended TROPOMI+GOSAT satellite data product for atmospheric methane using machine learning to correct retrieval biases
in Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
Boesch H
(2021)
Monitoring Greenhouse Gases from Space
in Remote Sensing
Drinkwater A
(2023)
Atmospheric data support a multi-decadal shift in the global methane budget towards natural tropical emissions
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Feng L
(2022)
Tropical methane emissions explain large fraction of recent changes in global atmospheric methane growth rate.
in Nature communications
Feng L
(2023)
Methane emissions are predominantly responsible for record-breaking atmospheric methane growth rates in 2020 and 2021
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Folberth G
(2022)
Description and Evaluation of an Emission-Driven and Fully Coupled Methane Cycle in UKESM1
in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Description | Contributions to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with its emphasis on impacts of not meeting different temperature thresholds. |
First Year Of Impact | 2021 |
Sector | Environment |
Impact Types | Policy & public services |
Description | Earth System Model eVALuation (ESMVal) Tool Tutorials |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Impact | Training provided in the use of ESMValTool to scientists and researchers has led to the development of novel diagnostics and analyses including in the IPCC AR6 report. |
URL | https://github.com/ESMValGroup/ESMValTool |
Description | ESA CCI Climate Modelling User Group |
Amount | € 1,700,000 (EUR) |
Organisation | European Space Agency |
Sector | Public |
Country | France |
Start | 08/2023 |
End | 08/2026 |
Description | UKRI FLF - The First Environmental Digital Twin Dedicated to Understanding Tropical Wetland Methane Emissions for Improved Predictions of Climate Change - Rob Parker |
Amount | £1,600,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | MR/X033139/1 |
Organisation | United Kingdom Research and Innovation |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2024 |
End | 03/2028 |
Description | ESA CCI - TOCISE Fellowship |
Organisation | European Space Agency |
Country | France |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Investigated the long-term differences in multiple ESA CCI tropospheric ozone products in combination with the UK Met Office's Earth system model (UKESM). |
Collaborator Contribution | Provided funding for my research looking at inconsistencies in ESA CCI tropospheric ozone products. |
Impact | Multiple publications are currently being written up for submission to scientific journals. |
Start Year | 2021 |
Description | Contributed material to NCEO/UKESM stands at COP26 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I generated material (images, videos, slides) that we used on the UKESM and NCEO/UKRI stands at COP26 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Interviewed for UKRI COP26 short film |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I was interviewed related to climate modelling as part of the UKRI film produced for COP26 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Participation in the New Scientist Live exhibition |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Our stand on 'Predicting Climate Change' provided an opportunity for schools and the public to visualise climate processes and how the climate may change in the future and for our team of scientists to hear first hand what the public are most interested in. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://ukesm.ac.uk/portfolio-item/new-scientist-live-engaging-the-public/ |
Description | Poster presented at COP27 for Earth Information Day |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | The poster titled "The Physical Climate at 2C vs 4C as seen in the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1)" was presented on Earth Information Day and made available to the public through the course of COP27. The poster was on display to the public, students, policy makers and governments and showcased future climate change at different Global Warming Levels as modeled by the UK's flagship climate model. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://unfccc.int/event/earth-information-day-2022 |
Description | Public lecture at Space Park Leicester for COP26 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Gave a presenation as an introduction to climate modelling as part of a Space Park Leicester public event in the lead up to COP26 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | The 26th U.N Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26), Glasgow 2021. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | The COP26 summit brought parties together to accelerate action towards the goals of the Paris Agreement and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Several hundred people attended the event and our research in the form of videos and quizzes helped inform the general public and policy makers on the role played by models and observations to understand the impacts of global warming. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://ukesm.ac.uk/cop26/ |