UKESM 1 year Extension PML
Lead Research Organisation:
Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Department Name: Plymouth Marine Lab
Abstract
Global climate change is one of the leading environmental threats facing mankind. To develop appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies requires accurate projections of the future state of the Earth's climate. To address this, we develop Global Climate Models (GCMs) that describe the main physical processes in the coupled climate system. These models are integrated forwards in simulated time, from a pre-industrial period to present-day, forced by observed estimates of key greenhouse gases, aerosols and land-use. The models are then continued into the future forced by a range of greenhouse gas, aerosol and land-use scenarios. Each of the model future climates can then compared to the simulated present-day climates. This analysis results in an ensemble of climate change estimates that can be used to assess the socio-economic and ecological impacts of the simulated changes and aid in the development of mitigation and adaptation policies.
GCMs have been further developed into Earth system models (ESMs), as we did in the UKESM LTSM, where UKESM1 was developed from the physical model, HadGEM3-GC3.1. A key difference between ESMs and GCMs is the former include an interactive description of the global carbon cycle supporting analysis of both physical climate change and potential changes in the efficacy by which anthropogenic emitted CO2 is taken up by natural carbon reservoirs. A reduction in the uptake efficiency of Earth's natural carbon reservoirs may result in a larger fraction of emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere to warm the planet. Accurate estimates of the future evolution of both the global climate system and the carbon cycle are therefore crucial for getting a clear picture of the future risks humanity faces, as well as for developing mitigation actions (that typically target modifying the efficacy of carbon uptake) to keep global warming to acceptable levels.
To address this need we developed the 1st UK Earth system model (UKESM1) and ran it for a large suite of experiments in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). UKESM1 is the most advanced Earth system model in the world today and as well as a coupled physical climate model also includes interactive treatment of (i) the global carbon cycle and vegetation, (ii) atmospheric chemistry and aerosols and (iii) models for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We have run a large (19 member) ensemble of historical simulations with UKESM1 (1850 to 2015) and extended a number of these into the future (2015 to 2100) following 7 different future emission pathways from CMIP6 scenarioMIP. In this extension, we propose a detailed analysis of the UKESM1 historical ensemble and the suite of scenarioMIP projections. Our aims are (i) to better understand what drives observed historical Earth system change and ask how well UKESM1 represents these changes, (ii) with the knowledge from (i), analyse simulated Earth system change in the UKESM1 scenarioMIP ensemble, combining this with the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, to document the range of simulated changes across the coupled Earth system over the coming century. Two primary emphases in this analysis will be; (a) to document and contrast regional changes at different levels of global mean warming (e.g. 2C or 3C) and (b) where possible, to constrain the various coupled feedbacks simulated by UKESM1 that drive the changes we see. In addition to these two science goals, we will also continue to provide support to the large UK UKESM user and model development community and plan to hold two consultation workshops with (i) UK climate policymakers and (ii) UK climate impacts researchers. In these workshops we will present our findings on predicted future Earth system change and begin a two-way dialogue on how UK Earth system modelling can best serve the needs of these two groups, developing future collaborations based on mutual understanding of each groups needs and goals.
GCMs have been further developed into Earth system models (ESMs), as we did in the UKESM LTSM, where UKESM1 was developed from the physical model, HadGEM3-GC3.1. A key difference between ESMs and GCMs is the former include an interactive description of the global carbon cycle supporting analysis of both physical climate change and potential changes in the efficacy by which anthropogenic emitted CO2 is taken up by natural carbon reservoirs. A reduction in the uptake efficiency of Earth's natural carbon reservoirs may result in a larger fraction of emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere to warm the planet. Accurate estimates of the future evolution of both the global climate system and the carbon cycle are therefore crucial for getting a clear picture of the future risks humanity faces, as well as for developing mitigation actions (that typically target modifying the efficacy of carbon uptake) to keep global warming to acceptable levels.
To address this need we developed the 1st UK Earth system model (UKESM1) and ran it for a large suite of experiments in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). UKESM1 is the most advanced Earth system model in the world today and as well as a coupled physical climate model also includes interactive treatment of (i) the global carbon cycle and vegetation, (ii) atmospheric chemistry and aerosols and (iii) models for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We have run a large (19 member) ensemble of historical simulations with UKESM1 (1850 to 2015) and extended a number of these into the future (2015 to 2100) following 7 different future emission pathways from CMIP6 scenarioMIP. In this extension, we propose a detailed analysis of the UKESM1 historical ensemble and the suite of scenarioMIP projections. Our aims are (i) to better understand what drives observed historical Earth system change and ask how well UKESM1 represents these changes, (ii) with the knowledge from (i), analyse simulated Earth system change in the UKESM1 scenarioMIP ensemble, combining this with the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, to document the range of simulated changes across the coupled Earth system over the coming century. Two primary emphases in this analysis will be; (a) to document and contrast regional changes at different levels of global mean warming (e.g. 2C or 3C) and (b) where possible, to constrain the various coupled feedbacks simulated by UKESM1 that drive the changes we see. In addition to these two science goals, we will also continue to provide support to the large UK UKESM user and model development community and plan to hold two consultation workshops with (i) UK climate policymakers and (ii) UK climate impacts researchers. In these workshops we will present our findings on predicted future Earth system change and begin a two-way dialogue on how UK Earth system modelling can best serve the needs of these two groups, developing future collaborations based on mutual understanding of each groups needs and goals.
Organisations
Publications
Baylor Fox-Kemper
(2021)
AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis
Bueno-Pardo J
(2021)
Climate change vulnerability assessment of the main marine commercial fish and invertebrates of Portugal.
in Scientific reports
Dao H
(2021)
Impact of Seawater Temperature on Coral Reefs in the Context of Climate Change. A Case Study of Cu Lao Cham - Hoi An Biosphere Reserve
in Frontiers in Marine Science
Veronika Eyring
(2021)
AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis
Wilson R
(2021)
Large projected reductions in marine fish biomass for Kenya and Tanzania in the absence of climate mitigation
in Ocean & Coastal Management
Yool A
(2021)
Evaluating the physical and biogeochemical state of the global ocean component of UKESM1 in CMIP6 historical simulations
in Geoscientific Model Development
Title | COP26 vlog - inside the Glasgow Conference of Parties |
Description | I made this travel video log about my time in Glasgow at COP26. I attended COP26 in both the accredited (blue zoon) and public areas (green zone) representing Plymouth Marine Laboratory (#PML), United Kingdom Research and Innovation (#UKRI), and the UK Earth System Models project (#UKESM) to highlight the role of the ocean in climate, and how the ocean is impacted upon through climate change. I also talked about the role of Earth System Modelling in creating climate projections, and my work using ESMValTool to analyse CMIP6 data for the Sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment report (IPCC-AR6). |
Type Of Art | Film/Video/Animation |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Impact | 154 views, shown at several meetings, workshops and shared widely. |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_-BAhzy8RE |
Title | Earth System Music - Remastered |
Description | A remastered version of the Earth System Music playlist. Remastered using high quality virtual instrument (VST) piano, mastered to a modern standard, and published on Spotify, Amazon Music and elsewhere. |
Type Of Art | Composition/Score |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Impact | This allows the music to reach a wider audience and be experienced on other devices, such as a amazon alexa unit or google home. |
URL | https://open.spotify.com/album/6mYAvRoRyEzBA8WcSD5EmQ |
Title | Intro to Earth System Models and Climate Change - BBC Radio Devon Christmas lecture 2021 |
Description | BBC Radio Devon asked me to do a Christmas lecture this year! What a privilege! It's not every day that you get the opportunity to bore the wider public with 14 minutes about earth system models, marine biology, CMIP6 and the IPCC. In the first part of the lecture, I talk about how models are made, what models look like, how models are joined together. In the second part, I talk about how we make models look realistic, how humans can impact the climate, how we forecast the future climate, and what we can do now. The original was broadcast on the 28th of December on BBC Radio Devon. |
Type Of Art | Film/Video/Animation |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Impact | The original lecture was broadcast between christmas 2021 and new years. I subsequently added an video to the audio and uploaded it. |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ew4pcrgdNE&t=2s&ab_channel=LeedeMora |
Title | Portrait of a scientist - in "Around the Edge of COP" sketch book by Lucinda Rogers |
Description | I was sketched by artist, Lucinda Rogers, at COP26. Lucinda Rogers works from life in the tradition of the artist as reporter. She immerses herself in an environment and records straight from eye to paper, which gives her drawings a particular spontaneity. Her work records the intimate details and broad views of the changing city she lives in, London, and others she is drawn to including New York and Marrakech. Alongside her own work she has had a prolific illustration career working regularly for the mainstream press and countless other publications and companies, often being sent out to draw on location as a reportage illustrator. |
Type Of Art | Artwork |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Impact | My portrait, and fellow PML scientist, Lauren Bierman, are the opening pages of the sketch book. |
URL | https://lucindarogers.bigcartel.com/product/cop26-drawings-book |
Title | The Sonification of the Western Channel Observatory |
Description | This is a sonification of marine data from the L4 station, part of the Western Channel Observatory (WCO). |
Type Of Art | Composition/Score |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Impact | 110 views, shown at several meetings and workshops/. |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAvFlP2s5Vo |
Title | UKRSM SST data was provided to Artist Michael Begg from omnempathy to be used in sonification music |
Description | We provided UKRSM SST data to Artist Micheal Begg from omnempathy to be used in sonification music |
Type Of Art | Composition/Score |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Impact | This music was performed live at a COP26 scotland event with Napier University. |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cbUK8oAT2Q |
Description | The UK Earth System Model provides information on the likely evolution of climate over the next century. Using this information various studies show the impact on local and regional marine systems in terms of productivity and for example ability to support fisheries. In general these studies show that the oceans ability to thrive and support human populations will be eroded by climate change |
Exploitation Route | The outcomes will inform policy makers and marine system managers of the issues that need to be addressed if climate change is not mitigated, whilst increasing the pressure for significant climate change mitigation |
Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Environment Government Democracy and Justice |
Description | Outcomes from this project have informed the CS-NOW project (Climate services for a Net Zero resilient world) funded by BEIS and delivering reports and advice to govt departments on decarbonisation, climate impacts, co-benefits of climate action |
First Year Of Impact | 2023 |
Sector | Government, Democracy and Justice |
Impact Types | Policy & public services |
Title | ESMValTool 2.3 |
Description | ESMValTool: A community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Open Source License? | Yes |
Impact | Used this code in several projects, including the IPCC AR6 WG1 chapters 3 and 9. |
URL | https://github.com/ESMValGroup/ESMValTool |
Title | ESMValTool 2.4 |
Description | ESMValTool is A community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Open Source License? | Yes |
Impact | Deployed it in several projects, UKESM, CRACAB, TerraFirma, and used it to contribute to the IPCC AR6 WG1 chapters 3 & 9. |
URL | https://github.com/ESMValGroup/ESMValTool |
Title | bgcval2: Marine Biogoechemical Validation Toolkit v2 |
Description | The Marine Biogoechemical Validation Toolkit v2 (bgcval2) is a python based software toolkit that was built to automate the production of a html website to help monitoring the development of the UKESM2, Terrafirma and Mission Atlantic models. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Impact | The toolkit was used for the operational monitoring of several model simulations, including UKESM2, Terrafirma and Mission Atlantic models. |
URL | https://github.com/valeriupredoi/bgcval2 |
Title | ncplot v0.2.0 |
Description | This is a Python and command line to for automatic interactive visualization of the contents of NetCDF data. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2022 |
Open Source License? | Yes |
Impact | This is a separate dependency of the increasingly used Python package nctoolkit. |
URL | https://github.com/pmlmodelling/ncplot |
Title | nctoolkit v0.4.3 |
Description | nctoolkit is a comprehensive Python package for analyzing netCDF data on Linux and MacOS. It offers users a computationally efficient suite to carry out all key operations, including: interpolation, spatial and temporal averaging, subsetting and arithmetic operations. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2022 |
Open Source License? | Yes |
Impact | This is a relatively new software package with a growing user base. It is now used widely in the PML modelling group for model validation and post-processing purposes. Usage is growing outside PML. Based on Google Analytics data, the package website is now viewed by 450-500 times per month. This figure has doubled in the last 6 months, indicating strong user growth. |
URL | https://github.com/pmlmodelling/nctoolkit |
Title | pmlmodelling/nctoolkit: v0.9.0 |
Description | This is a major(ish) release with some breaking changes related to plotting. On pypi, cartopy has been switched to an optional dependency because it was causing installation difficulties for some users. You can now do a "complete" installation using pip to get all optional dependencies::
This does not impact the conda version, which will behave as before. Support is now available for Python 3.11. File paths with spaces are now supported. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Open Source License? | Yes |
Impact | The userbase of nctoolkit has grown significantly in the last year. The number of people starring the package (an indication of users) on Github grew from 16 to 53 between March 2022 and March 2023: https://star-history.com/#pmlmodelling/nctoolkit&Date. The package is now a dependency of bgcval2, a model assessment tool developed as part of the NERC funded TerraFirma project. |
URL | https://zenodo.org/record/7691351 |
Description | BBC Radio Devon Christmas lecture 2021: introduction to Earth System Models |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | BBC Radio Devon asked me to do a Christmas lecture this year! I spoke to the wider public with 14 minutes about earth system models, marine biology, CMIP6 and the IPCC. In the first part of the lecture, I talk about how models are made, what models look like, how models are joined together. In the second part, I talk about how we make models look realistic, how humans can impact the climate, how we forecast the future climate, and what we can do now. The original was broadcast on the 28th of December on BBC Radio Devon. I also generated a video using the recorded audio, but that is a separate outcome. The radio broadcast of this activity does not have a DOI. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | COP26 UKRI stall |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I manned the UKRI stall at COP26 for an afternoon. I spoke with dozens of people, and we showed them all sorts of videos and shared ideas about marine science and Earth System Modelling. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Interiview with BBC Radio Devon's Pippa Quelch about my role in IPCC report |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I did a brief interview with Pippa Quelch on BBC Radio Devon. We talked about the results of the IPCC Sixth Assessment reports, my role as a contributing author of the report, some of the headline statements and a brief discussion on climate change in the marine environment. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQ-8fS7c6Vk |
Description | UKESM stall at COP26 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I manned the UKESM stall at COP26 for an afternoon. I spoke with dozens of people, and we showed them all sorts of videos and shared ideas about marine science and Earth System Modelling. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |