MesoS2D: Mesospheric sub-seasonal to decadal predictability
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leeds
Department Name: Physics and Astronomy
Abstract
In order to accurately predict impacts of space weather and climate variability on the whole atmosphere we need an accurate representation of the whole atmosphere. The mesosphere (~50-95 km altitude) is the most poorly understood
region of the atmosphere, it is the critical boundary between two domains (the climate domain and the space weather
domain) and this presents a problem when trying to model and prediction conditions in the whole atmosphere. Currently the level of prediction in the mesosphere is no better than climatology. Historically there have been few observations of this region to help us characterise it. However, in the past decade or so the number of observations has increased markedly, including multiple middle atmosphere observing satellite missions. We plan to take advantage of this golden age of middle atmosphere observations and together with one of the world most sophisticated whole atmosphere models to quantify the variability and drivers of the mesosphere.
The mesosphere influences, and is influenced by, in-situ and external effects such as atmospheric waves and tides
(upward) and space weather effects (downward). The mesosphere is strongly coupled to the lower edge of the ionosphere, as well as the other atmospheric regions, so changes in one part can impact on others. In order to make progress in modelling the whole atmosphere as a coupled system we need to have a sound scientific understanding of the drivers of variability. For climate models we have a good level of predictability for ~2 weeks and one the ~decades scale. However, critically we cannot do this in the mesosphere yet. We aim to focus our efforts on understanding variability on the subseasonal to decadal variations in the mesosphere as a pathway to improving model predictions.
We will use the highly instrumented region of Scandinavia, in conjunction with satellite data, to determine the variability of the mesosphere/lower ionosphere and its drivers over a sub seasonal to decadal scale. We will be among the first to use a new, ~£50 million, high-resolution instrument (EISCAT 3D). This will be the world's most sophisticated ionospheric radar which will allow unprecedented small scale measurements of variations in the middle atmosphere. In conjunction with special high-resolution whole atmosphere model simulations, we will determine the drivers and variability of this atmospheric region and provide a first step along the road of improving predictability of the mesosphere at sub-seasonal to decadal timescales.
region of the atmosphere, it is the critical boundary between two domains (the climate domain and the space weather
domain) and this presents a problem when trying to model and prediction conditions in the whole atmosphere. Currently the level of prediction in the mesosphere is no better than climatology. Historically there have been few observations of this region to help us characterise it. However, in the past decade or so the number of observations has increased markedly, including multiple middle atmosphere observing satellite missions. We plan to take advantage of this golden age of middle atmosphere observations and together with one of the world most sophisticated whole atmosphere models to quantify the variability and drivers of the mesosphere.
The mesosphere influences, and is influenced by, in-situ and external effects such as atmospheric waves and tides
(upward) and space weather effects (downward). The mesosphere is strongly coupled to the lower edge of the ionosphere, as well as the other atmospheric regions, so changes in one part can impact on others. In order to make progress in modelling the whole atmosphere as a coupled system we need to have a sound scientific understanding of the drivers of variability. For climate models we have a good level of predictability for ~2 weeks and one the ~decades scale. However, critically we cannot do this in the mesosphere yet. We aim to focus our efforts on understanding variability on the subseasonal to decadal variations in the mesosphere as a pathway to improving model predictions.
We will use the highly instrumented region of Scandinavia, in conjunction with satellite data, to determine the variability of the mesosphere/lower ionosphere and its drivers over a sub seasonal to decadal scale. We will be among the first to use a new, ~£50 million, high-resolution instrument (EISCAT 3D). This will be the world's most sophisticated ionospheric radar which will allow unprecedented small scale measurements of variations in the middle atmosphere. In conjunction with special high-resolution whole atmosphere model simulations, we will determine the drivers and variability of this atmospheric region and provide a first step along the road of improving predictability of the mesosphere at sub-seasonal to decadal timescales.
Organisations
Publications
Davis N
(2023)
Climate, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity of "Middle Atmosphere" Chemistry Configurations of the Community Earth System Model Version 2, Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (CESM2(WACCM6))
in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Gasperini F
(2023)
Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Mesosphere Variability imposed by Waves from Below in Future Climates
in Bulletin of the AAS
Haguenauer P
(2024)
Long-term changes of sodium column abundance at 24.6°S above the Atacama Desert in Chile
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Szela G ME
(2022)
Ozone impact from solar energetic particles cools the polar stratosphere.
in Nature communications
| Description | The D-region ionosphere, extending from approximately 50 to 100 km, is an ionized layer that sits at the transition between the lower and upper atmosphere. We have found that it responds to forcing from above (solar radiation and energetic particle precipitation) and from below via neutral atmosphere dynamics. State of the art model simulations show connections to lower atmospheric variability (e.g. stratospheric sudden warmings and atmospheric tides). |
| Exploitation Route | Understanding the drivers of D-region variability could lead to the ability to predict variations in the ionosphere and it's impact on satellite communications and GPS. |
| Sectors | Aerospace Defence and Marine Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software) |
| Description | Colloquium talk titled "Pathways to improved prediction of the MLTI system" at IAP, Kulungsborn, Germany |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | An invited colloquium talk on 27 June 2024 presented by D. Marsh at the Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Kühlungsborn, Germany. This highlighted efforts under this grant to understand and predict the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://www.iap-kborn.de/fileadmin/user_upload/MAIN-dateien/Aktuelles/Kolloquium/Kolloquium-SS2024.p... |
| Description | Invited oral conference presentation variability of the D-region ionosphere at IUGG 2023 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Invited conference presentation at IUGG 2023 (28th General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics) Marsh, D. (2023): Variability of the D-region ionosphere in WACCM-D, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023). https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-1005 Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5016466 Abstract: The D-region ionosphere, extending from approximately 50 to 100 km, is an ionized layer that sits at the transition between the lower and upper atmosphere. It responds to forcing from above (solar radiation and energetic particle precipitation) and from below via neutral atmosphere dynamics. This talk explores how the D-region can be used as a tracer for these two drivers through analysis of model simulations using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The model is typically run with interactive chemistry, and solves for both ion and neutral constituents. WACCM-D extends the model chemistry to include the chemical species important for the D-region ionosphere and the photolytic and ionization processes that initiate ion reactions in the mesosphere. WACCM-D includes 307 reactions, 20 positive ions and 21 negative ions. The talk surveys the variability of the D-region ionosphere in WACCM-D on timescales from hours to years. Diurnal and seasonal variations are shown, as well as the response to sporadic forcing such as solar energetic particle events. Connections to lower atmospheric variability (e.g. stratospheric sudden warmings and atmospheric tides) in WACCM-D are quantified. The extent to which WACCM-D reproduces variability captured by empirical reference ionospheres is also shown. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-1005 |
| Description | Presentation at Royal Astronomical Society Specialist Discussion Meeting: Pathways to improved prediction of the MLTI system |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The aim of this discussion meeting was to bring together modellers and observers of the IT system and the atmosphere, as well as researchers interested in advancing our modelling capabilities, to discuss recent scientific findings, modelling advances and future plans. This meeting was in person and on-line. Title: Pathways to improved prediction of the MLTI system Author: D.R.Marsh Abstract: The mesosphere/lower-thermosphere/ionosphere (MLTI) system experiences "weather" just as any other part of the atmosphere. Day-to-day and seasonal variability can be caused by large variations in direct solar and geomagnetic forcing, as well as changes in the broad spectrum of waves originating from the lower atmosphere that propagate into the system. To build a prediction system for the MLTI we must first characterise this variability. Unfortunately, continuous and global in-situ sampling of the MLTI is impractical and remote sensing provides information that is either limited spatially or temporally. Observations from a sun-synchronous satellite may provide near-global coverage but cannot measure the diurnal cycle and may miss small-scale variations that would be seen from a ground-based observatory. Conversely, a single observatory misses the global context and teleconnections that might drive local variations. Empirical and physics-based models can help to disentangle the global from the local and forced variability from that generated internally. In this talk, I present output from a 'high-top' chemistry-climate model that provide examples of the weather and seasonal/decadal change of the neutral and ionised atmosphere and illustrate how one might use knowledge gained to interpret sparse observations. I will discuss recent modelling advances arising from tropospheric weather and climate model development (e.g., the push to higher model resolution, unstructured grids and use of large ensembles) and their potential to improve our ability to simulate and predict the MLTI. Challenges and opportunities created by new observations will also be discussed. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://ras.ac.uk/events-and-meetings/ras-meetings/meeting-challenges-limited-observations-global-mo... |