UPSURGE: Helping storm surge barriers prepare for climate change

Over the last 30-years more than 20 large surge barriers, and many other smaller ones, have been built at a cost of billions of pounds, to provide flood protection to people, property and infrastructure in coastal areas. Around the North Sea coastline, which is renowned for its large storm surges there are 16 storm surge barriers that offer flood protection to communities in low-lying coastal areas on the UK east coast and in the Netherlands. London's very existence as a major world city would be precarious without the Thames Barrier and 17 million inhabitants Netherlands' are only able to live in coastal regions which are near to or below sea level, because of the presence of 5 surge barriers, and accompanying defences.

As a result of climate change, especially sea-level rise and changes in storminess, surge barriers are having to be used more frequently and this is already starting to negatively impact barrier operation, integrity/reliability, maintenance and projected lifespan. Increased use of barriers also has negative ramifications for shipping and the health of the estuary/river behind the barrier, and the important ecosystems (e.g., saltmarshes) they support. Even if we stabilise or reduce our carbon emission, there is a long-time delay in response and sea levels will continue to rise for many hundreds of years. Therefore, it is vital that barrier operators carefully consider the full range of impacts of climate change and adapt their operation, maintenance and management strategies, and future upgrade/replacement plans accordingly, so they will continue to be effective in protecting human lives and livelihoods.

In this Knowledge Exchange Fellowship, I propose to work 50% of my time over 3-years with two key organisations, the Environment Agency and Rijkswaterstaat. Together they operate and manage 16 storm surge barriers in the UK and Netherlands. Throughout the fellowship I will also interact regularly with I-STORM, an international knowledge sharing network for professionals relating to the management, operation and maintenance of storm surge barriers, to ensure the fellowship can benefit all the existing (and planned) storm surge barriers around the world.

I will undertake four main inter-linked activities.

First, I will deeply imbed myself with the relevant teams in the EA and Rijkswaterstaat to produce a comprehensive inventory of the different ways sea-level rise and other effects of climate change will negatively impact surge barrier operation/management. We will carefully consider possible solutions/adaption strategies to each of these challenge that arise from climate change, and identify tipping points and associated timings when a major barrier replacement might be required.

Second, I will help barrier operators to establish a framework and software tool that will make it easier for them to: (i) monitor and assess in real time how sea levels (and other relevant climate related variables) are changing in the vicinity of different surge barriers; (ii) quantify how this has impacted the number of closures over time; and (iii) in turn assess how this has affected barrier operation/maintenance to date.

Third, I will create a flexible software tool that will allow operators to easily and accurately estimate the likely future number of closures for any barrier and any given climate change projection. This will be used by strategists to help guide adaptive planning of future upgrade/replacement of key barrier infrastructure, that will inevitably be required in the future.

Fourth, working closely with the EA, Rijkswaterstaat and I-STORM, we will distil the lessons learnt from the three activities mentioned above, into a policy brief, packaged with accompanying software tools, that will better allow barrier managers worldwide to future proof their operations to climate change and develop adaptive planning for future barrier upgrades/replacements.