NERC-NSFGEO C-FORCE: Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks from Response to Carbon Emissions
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Birmingham
Department Name: Sch of Geography, Earth & Env Sciences
Abstract
The dominant driver of anthropogenic global warming is the increasing amount of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This is increasing because it is being emitted by the burning of fossil fuel, deforestation and cement making, with only ~45% staying in the atmosphere. The rest is stored in other reservoirs at or near Earth's surface including the ocean, trees, soils, permafrost and methane ice, as well as sediments and rock. Carbon flows naturally between the atmosphere and these reservoirs by processes like photosynthesis, decay, weathering, burial and ocean circulation. Collectively, the exchange of carbon between these reservoirs is termed the carbon cycle. One of the biggest uncertainties about future climate change is how the carbon cycle will respond to (or 'feed back' on) our warming planet. It is possible, for example, that if global warming exceeds a threshold, permafrost and methane ice stored at the seafloor will melt rapidly, adding further greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and accelerating the warming. It is very difficult to predict whether 'tipping point' behaviour like this will occur in the global carbon cycle.
C-FORCE will measure how the global carbon cycle responded from start to finish during a past period of global warming that was driven by emissions of carbon-based greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is the largest natural climate change event of the last 65 million years, and the closest natural comparator to the modern rates of global warming and carbon greenhouse gas emissions. During the PETM, initial global warming of 4-5 degrees Celsius over a few thousand years was partially driven by carbon emissions from an unusually massive episode of volcanism, and the climate then gradually recovered to its pre-existing state over more than 100 thousand years.
C-FORCE will use a novel model of the global carbon cycle to compare the carbon supplied by volcanism with the total PETM carbon budget; the difference between these two budgets can be attributed to carbon cycle feedbacks. We will make new high-resolution estimates of the rate at which volcanism supplied carbon to the atmosphere throughout the PETM by measuring the processes that generated the magma. We will calculate the total budget of carbon emissions to the atmosphere that caused the climate change by generating new high-resolution records of ocean acidification. Our carbon cycle modelling will allow the scientists who make these two sets of measurements to interface effectively to solve the net global carbon cycle feedback problem for the first time. Furthermore, because Earth's carbon reservoirs differ in isotopic composition, we can fingerprint which reservoirs most likely acted as carbon sources or sinks over the course of the PETM.
Thus C-FORCE will determine how the global carbon cycle evolved throughout the PETM, and show whether or not tipping point behaviour occurred. Understanding how Earth's carbon reservoirs respond to global warming is crucial for predicting atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and climate change long into the future. Ultimately, an improved understanding of the carbon cycle affects future carbon budgets to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees Celcius and is therefore necessary for shaping mitigation targets and government policy.
Beyond delivering a research product, C-FORCE challenges current understanding of the carbon cycle and we see our role as an empowering force in this space. The public discourse on climate change is a mixture of disaffection and anxiety, so C-FORCE will take a different direction to traditional public engagement, by partnering with community organisers and local government to train, mentor and co-develop our public engagement with young people.
C-FORCE will measure how the global carbon cycle responded from start to finish during a past period of global warming that was driven by emissions of carbon-based greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is the largest natural climate change event of the last 65 million years, and the closest natural comparator to the modern rates of global warming and carbon greenhouse gas emissions. During the PETM, initial global warming of 4-5 degrees Celsius over a few thousand years was partially driven by carbon emissions from an unusually massive episode of volcanism, and the climate then gradually recovered to its pre-existing state over more than 100 thousand years.
C-FORCE will use a novel model of the global carbon cycle to compare the carbon supplied by volcanism with the total PETM carbon budget; the difference between these two budgets can be attributed to carbon cycle feedbacks. We will make new high-resolution estimates of the rate at which volcanism supplied carbon to the atmosphere throughout the PETM by measuring the processes that generated the magma. We will calculate the total budget of carbon emissions to the atmosphere that caused the climate change by generating new high-resolution records of ocean acidification. Our carbon cycle modelling will allow the scientists who make these two sets of measurements to interface effectively to solve the net global carbon cycle feedback problem for the first time. Furthermore, because Earth's carbon reservoirs differ in isotopic composition, we can fingerprint which reservoirs most likely acted as carbon sources or sinks over the course of the PETM.
Thus C-FORCE will determine how the global carbon cycle evolved throughout the PETM, and show whether or not tipping point behaviour occurred. Understanding how Earth's carbon reservoirs respond to global warming is crucial for predicting atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and climate change long into the future. Ultimately, an improved understanding of the carbon cycle affects future carbon budgets to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees Celcius and is therefore necessary for shaping mitigation targets and government policy.
Beyond delivering a research product, C-FORCE challenges current understanding of the carbon cycle and we see our role as an empowering force in this space. The public discourse on climate change is a mixture of disaffection and anxiety, so C-FORCE will take a different direction to traditional public engagement, by partnering with community organisers and local government to train, mentor and co-develop our public engagement with young people.
Organisations
- University of Birmingham (Lead Research Organisation)
- University of California, Berkeley (Project Partner)
- Aarhus University (Project Partner)
- University of Oslo (Project Partner)
- Citizens UK (Project Partner)
- University College Dublin (Project Partner)
- University of California, Santa Cruz (Project Partner)
- University of Oxford (Project Partner)
- Birmingham City Council (Project Partner)
- Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (Project Partner)
Publications
Vervoort P
(2024)
Earth System Model Analysis of How Astronomical Forcing Is Imprinted Onto the Marine Geological Record: The Role of the Inorganic (Carbonate) Carbon Cycle and Feedbacks
in Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
Zhang P
(2024)
Four volcanically driven climatic perturbations led to enhanced continental weathering during the Late Triassic Carnian Pluvial Episode
in Earth and Planetary Science Letters
Description | CENTA ECollab: Transformative education, collaboration, and co-development |
Amount | £33,700 (GBP) |
Organisation | University of Birmingham |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 02/2024 |
End | 04/2024 |
Description | Linking terrestrial and marine carbon cycling across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum via intermediate complexity Earth system modeling |
Amount | $169,869 (USD) |
Funding ID | 2202694 |
Organisation | National Science Foundation (NSF) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United States |
Start | 05/2022 |
End | 05/2024 |
Description | NERC CENTA-2 Doctoral Training Programme, 2023 Research Experience Placement, to Fahmida Khanom: "Modelling volcanic gas emissions from sill networks within the LIPBURP modelling framework" |
Amount | £3,584 (GBP) |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 06/2023 |
End | 09/2023 |
Description | NERC CENTA-2 Doctoral Training Programme, 2023 Research Experience Placement, to Lucas Fischer: "Towards modelling volcanic mercury emissions within the LIPBURP modelling framework" |
Amount | £3,584 (GBP) |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 06/2023 |
End | 09/2023 |
Description | Street Grime |
Amount | £1,317 (GBP) |
Organisation | University of Birmingham |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 05/2023 |
End | 03/2024 |
Title | Andy Ridgwell, Chris Reinhard, Sebastiaan van de Velde, Markus Adloff, Fanny Monteiro, Ben Ward, Dominik Hülse, Jamie Wilson, Pam Vervoort, Sandra Kirtland Turner, & Mingsong Li. (2023). derpycode/cgenie.muffin: v0.9.42 (v0.9.42). Zenodo. https://doi.org |
Description | Updated version of cGENIE Earth System model of intermediate complexity. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Open Source License? | Yes |
Impact | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8049100 |
URL | https://github.com/derpycode/cgenie.muffin/tree/v0.9.49 |
Description | Emma Hanson attended 2 day training in community organising by Citizens UK |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | 2 day training is a stepping stone to 3 and 6 day residential training to become a qualified community organiser with Citizens UK. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Emma Hanson attended Citizens UK Birmingham Citizens delegates assembly |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Emma Hanson represented the University of Birmingham and the cforce climate justice listening campaign. Emma therefore had voting rights on our inclusion in Birmingham citizens civil priorities and activity leading up to the Mayoral Elections in May 2024. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
Description | Hosting 1st training workshop at University of Birmingham for schools and charities |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Series of training workshops supporting our Birmingham based listening campaign on climate justice. Involving organizers from Citizens UK Birmingham citizens, cohorts from school and youth cahrities |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Hosting 2nd training workshop at University of Birmingham for schools and charities |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Training as part of Birmingham based listening campaign. Training young people in community organising by Citizens UK organisers from Birmingham citizens. Attended by young people from schools and youth charity |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
Description | Hosting a issues workshop on Housing and green retrofit |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | An online workshop, chaired by Stevenson and supported by Hanson, to bring together academic and policy experts to discuss issues around housing and retrofit. This included several other UoB academics as well as community leaders and policy experts. The output of this was a draft policy around combining housing retrofit with basic housing repair. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
Description | Participation in Citizens UK National Delegates Assembly |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | National delegates assembly organised by Citizens UK to vote on national campaign priorities ahead of the 2024 general election. At this assembly our team led on the climate justice campaign and successfully demonstrated the threshold for inclusion and our young leaders helped to win the democratic vote to include this as a national campaign |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Participation in Citizens UK general Election national working group on Climate Justice |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | The national working groups are assembled to work on policy asks to be brought to main political parties at Westminster. There are 4 such working groups producing manifestos on housing, homelessness, cost of living and climate justice. Our inclusion in this work is a direct result of our Birmingham based Climate Justice listening campaign funded by CFORCE |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023,2024 |
URL | https://www.citizensuk.org/campaigns/climate-justice/ |
Description | Public lecture on past CO2 release events by Pam Vervoort in the University of Birmingham's Lapworth Lecture series. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Lapworth Museum, University of Birmingham's "Lapworth Lecture" programme to showcase our research to the public in the West Midlands. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | School visit (Ark Victoria Academy, Small Heath) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Part of ongoing work with this school who are involved in our Birmingham based listening campaign on climate justice. Meeting with 2 teachers and 4 students. Visit involves mentoring and training. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023,2024 |
Description | School visit (Handsworth Wood Girls' Academy) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Part of ongoing work with small cohorts of school children (year 11-12) at this school who are involved in our climate justice listening campaign. The visit involves mentoring and training |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023,2024 |
Description | cGENIE workshop at University of Birmingham |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | cGENIE workshop at University of Birmingham, led by Pam Vervoort and Sarah Greene, to train PhD, PDRA and faculty researchers from Birmingham and other UK universities in earth system modelling using cGENIE. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |