UK Emission Measurement System
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Bristol
Department Name: Chemistry
Abstract
The UK government has committed through the Climate Change Act 2008 to achieving net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 and the Sixth Carbon Budget brings greater clarity and guidance on the pathway the UK must follow. Beneath the ambition is a highly complex societal challenge to which we are seeking definitive outcomes. An outcome we can only be confident in achieving with empirical evidence: how will we know we have progressed towards and achieved net zero balance across the UK? An outcome which can only be delivered with understanding, engagement, and action from all relevant key stakeholder groups: how do we operationalise and efficiently make accessible GHG data to enable net zero actions? The solution is a near "real-time" feedback loop, providing diagnostic and analytical insight, monitoring nationwide emissions. Whilst being agnostic of specific policies, strategies and plans, this system would enable tracking of the impacts due to policy intervention and identification of unintended consequences.
With advances in science and technology, we are now in the position to move towards a nationwide, observations-based, policy agnostic and timely assessment of GHG emissions. This new assessment complements the current emissions inventory, which typically takes 2 years to compile, and goes beyond the reporting of the Act's legal framework. An observations-based estimates of GHG emissions would provide UK government, industry and citizens with the near real time data that are needed to act with confidence in delivering net zero. The need for an emissions "live dashboard" and importance of direct measurement was referenced by Patrick Vallance, UK Government Chief Scientific Advisor in an article in The Times (10 August 2021).
The UK science community is already working in collaboration with, and for, Government to support net zero ambitions and societal transformation. Essential to the support of both is an integrated, common-use, traceable GHG Emissions Measurement System (EMS) providing regional, temporal and activity-based data to inform and monitor emissions that is run on a long-term operational basis.
With advances in science and technology, we are now in the position to move towards a nationwide, observations-based, policy agnostic and timely assessment of GHG emissions. This new assessment complements the current emissions inventory, which typically takes 2 years to compile, and goes beyond the reporting of the Act's legal framework. An observations-based estimates of GHG emissions would provide UK government, industry and citizens with the near real time data that are needed to act with confidence in delivering net zero. The need for an emissions "live dashboard" and importance of direct measurement was referenced by Patrick Vallance, UK Government Chief Scientific Advisor in an article in The Times (10 August 2021).
The UK science community is already working in collaboration with, and for, Government to support net zero ambitions and societal transformation. Essential to the support of both is an integrated, common-use, traceable GHG Emissions Measurement System (EMS) providing regional, temporal and activity-based data to inform and monitor emissions that is run on a long-term operational basis.
Publications
Chawner H
(2024)
Atmospheric oxygen as a tracer for fossil fuel carbon dioxide: a sensitivity study in the UK
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Fillola E
(2026)
Enabling fast greenhouse gas emissions inference from satellites with GATES: a Graph-Neural-Network Atmospheric Transport Emulation System
in Geoscientific Model Development
Fillola E
(2023)
A machine learning emulator for Lagrangian particle dispersion model footprints: a case study using NAME
in Geoscientific Model Development
Redington A
(2023)
Western European emission estimates of CFC-11, CFC-12 and CCl 4 derived from atmospheric measurements from 2008 to 2021
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Redington A
(2023)
CFC-11 emissions are declining as expected in Western Europe
Saboya E
(2024)
Combining Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches to Evaluate Recent Trends and Seasonal Patterns in UK N 2 O Emissions
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
| Description | This work aims to build a prototype "operational" greenhouse gas emissions evaluation system for the UK. Emissions estimate of a suite of greenhouse gases from the University of Bristol, the Met Office and the University of Edinburgh have been developed and inter-compared, highlighting areas of disagreement with the UK inventory. Software frameworks have been developed to produce reproducible pipelines for observation-based emissions inference. New measurement stations have been established at Jodrell Bank and Invergowrie. The results of this work have been presented to key stakeholders at DESNZ through a purpose-built dashboard. |
| Exploitation Route | The beginnings of an operational emissions evaluation system are now in place, and could underpin a future long-term system for the UK. |
| Sectors | Environment Government Democracy and Justice |
| Description | Research from this project underpinned oral evidence given to the House of Lords Environment & Climate Change Committee report on methane (2024). |
| First Year Of Impact | 2024 |
| Sector | Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Impact Types | Policy & public services |
| Description | Oral evidence to House of Lords Environment and Climate Change Select Committee inquiry on methane |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| URL | https://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/cfba1e9b-1fa6-4182-86b7-2b2a52e3b18b |
| Description | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| Organisation | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| Country | United States |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | I collaborate closely with Prof. Ron Prinn, who is PI of the AGAGE network, at MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Access to data, model development |
| Impact | The collaboration has so far involved several joint publications (e.g. Rigby et al., 2013; 2014) and invited visits to MIT. |
| Start Year | 2012 |
| Description | Met Office |
| Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
| Department | Hadley Centre |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Expertise in inverse methods |
| Collaborator Contribution | Exertise in atmospheric modelling |
| Impact | Publications. |
| Start Year | 2012 |
| Title | OpenGHG |
| Description | A toolkit for greenhouse gas data analysis |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Open Source License? | Yes |
| Impact | Software is being used to evaluate the UK's greenhouse gas emissions |
| Description | DEFRA F-gas international team |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Meetings with the Defra F-GAS international team to discuss global updates on F-gases |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023,2024,2025 |
| Description | DESNZ Inventory Team Meetings |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Meetings with the DESNZ Inventory SICE teams to discuss emission estimates and improvements to the inventory. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023,2024,2025 |
