RAPID-Evolution
Lead Research Organisation:
National Oceanography Centre
Department Name: Science and Technology
Abstract
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a system of ocean currents that circulate water around the Atlantic Ocean.
It is a vital part of the Earth's climate system, playing a significant role in regulating global climate and weather patterns.
We need to Continuously observe the AMOC for several reasons:
1. Understanding Climate Change: Continuous observations of the AMOC help scientists better understand how climate change affects the ocean's circulation and heat transport. By continuously monitoring the AMOC, researchers can identify changes in its intensity, speed, and location, which can help them make more accurate predictions about future changes in the climate.
2. Improving Climate Models: Continuous observations of the AMOC help improve climate models by providing data to validate and refine model predictions. This information can help scientists make more accurate projections about the effects of climate change on various aspects of the Earth's ecosystem, such as sea levels, ocean acidity, and weather patterns.
3. Detecting Abrupt Changes: Abrupt changes in the AMOC could have significant impacts on the Earth's climate and weather patterns. Continuous monitoring of the AMOC can help scientists detect such changes early, allowing for timely intervention and mitigation strategies to be put in place.
4. Understanding Ecosystems: The AMOC plays a critical role in regulating oceanic ecosystems, and continuous observations can help researchers better understand how changes in the AMOC affect marine life, such as plankton, fish, and other organisms.
5. Predicting Extreme Weather Events: The AMOC has a significant impact on weather patterns, and continuous monitoring can help researchers make more accurate predictions about extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts.
Overall, continuous observations of the AMOC are essential for understanding the Earth's climate system and its impact on various aspects of our planet, including the environment, ecosystems, and human societies. By continuously observing the AMOC, we can improve our understanding of the Earth's climate system, and better predict and prepare for the effects of climate change.
The AMOC has been observed at 26N between Florida and Africa since 2004. This is heavily reliant on tall moorings in the water and research ships to collect the data and replace the moorings.
In this programme, we will exploit new technologies to design a fit-for-purpose sustainable AMOC observing system at substantially lower cost than at present and deliver data back via satellite.
This will allow us to deploy an optimised lower-cost 26N AMOC observing system from 2027.
It is a vital part of the Earth's climate system, playing a significant role in regulating global climate and weather patterns.
We need to Continuously observe the AMOC for several reasons:
1. Understanding Climate Change: Continuous observations of the AMOC help scientists better understand how climate change affects the ocean's circulation and heat transport. By continuously monitoring the AMOC, researchers can identify changes in its intensity, speed, and location, which can help them make more accurate predictions about future changes in the climate.
2. Improving Climate Models: Continuous observations of the AMOC help improve climate models by providing data to validate and refine model predictions. This information can help scientists make more accurate projections about the effects of climate change on various aspects of the Earth's ecosystem, such as sea levels, ocean acidity, and weather patterns.
3. Detecting Abrupt Changes: Abrupt changes in the AMOC could have significant impacts on the Earth's climate and weather patterns. Continuous monitoring of the AMOC can help scientists detect such changes early, allowing for timely intervention and mitigation strategies to be put in place.
4. Understanding Ecosystems: The AMOC plays a critical role in regulating oceanic ecosystems, and continuous observations can help researchers better understand how changes in the AMOC affect marine life, such as plankton, fish, and other organisms.
5. Predicting Extreme Weather Events: The AMOC has a significant impact on weather patterns, and continuous monitoring can help researchers make more accurate predictions about extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts.
Overall, continuous observations of the AMOC are essential for understanding the Earth's climate system and its impact on various aspects of our planet, including the environment, ecosystems, and human societies. By continuously observing the AMOC, we can improve our understanding of the Earth's climate system, and better predict and prepare for the effects of climate change.
The AMOC has been observed at 26N between Florida and Africa since 2004. This is heavily reliant on tall moorings in the water and research ships to collect the data and replace the moorings.
In this programme, we will exploit new technologies to design a fit-for-purpose sustainable AMOC observing system at substantially lower cost than at present and deliver data back via satellite.
This will allow us to deploy an optimised lower-cost 26N AMOC observing system from 2027.
Publications
McCarthy G
(2024)
Detecting climatic change in AMOC observations
McCarthy G
(2025)
Signal and Noise in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26°N
in Geophysical Research Letters
Volkov D
(2024)
Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state
in Nature Communications
Volkov D
(2024)
Florida Current: four decades of steady state at 27°N
| Description | Environmental Audit Committee visit to National Oceanography Centre |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| Title | Atlantic meridional overturning circulation observed by the RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS (RAPID-Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array-Western Boundary Time Series) array at 26N from 2004 to 2023 (v2023.1). |
| Description | The RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS (RAPID-Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array-Western Boundary Time Series) programme has produced a continuous time series of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26N that started in April 2004. This release of the time series covers the period from April 2004 to February 2023. The 26N AMOC time series is derived from measurements of temperature, salinity, pressure and water velocity from an array of moored instruments that extend from the east coast of the Bahamas to the continental shelf off Africa east of the Canary Islands. The AMOC calculation also uses estimates of the transport in the Florida Strait derived from sub-sea cable measurements calibrated by regular hydrographic cruises. The component of the AMOC associated with the wind driven Ekman layer is derived from ERA5 reanalysis. This release of the data includes a document with a brief description of the calculation of the AMOC time series and references to more detailed description in published papers. The 26N AMOC time series and the data from the moored array are curated by the British Oceanographic Data Centre (BODC). The RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS programme is a joint effort between NERC in the UK (Principal Investigator Ben Moat since 2021, Eleanor Frajka-Williams since 2020 to 2021, David Smeed 2012 to 2020, and Stuart Cunningham from 2004 to 2012), NOAA (PIs Ryan Smith and Denis Volkov) and NSF (PIs Prof. Bill Johns and Prof. Shane Elipot, Uni. Miami) in the USA. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2024 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The RAPID 26N data set typically has around 300 citations per year from international peer reviewed publicaitons and is used in climate policy documents (IPCC etc). |
| URL | https://www.bodc.ac.uk/data/published_data_library/catalogue/10.5285/223b34a3-2dc5-c945-e063-7086abc... |
| Title | RAPID-Evolution |
| Description | A global eORCA025 configuration of NEMO v4.2.2 with 1/12° and 1/36° nests centred over the RAPID array latitudes in the North Atlantic. The configuration is based on GOSI9 (Guiavarc'h et al., 2025) |
| Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
| Year Produced | 2025 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | To date the first simulation "R-Evo_1" from this configuration has been presented at Challenger (Kajtar et al., 2024) and the Drakkar workshop (Blaker et al. 2025). It is included in Petit et al. (in prep), and will be the focus of a description paper (Blaker et al. in prep) |
| URL | https://github.com/NOC-MSM/RAPID-Evolution |
| Description | BBC South Interview for international news |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Ben Moat And Tillys Petit were interviewed by the BBC whilst on RAPID expedition DY186 off the coast of the Bahamas. The national Oceanography Centre provided background footage to be used in the media piece. Aim and intended impact is to educate the general public on the role of the ocean in the climate. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2025 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1bG7Dnt7l0 |
| Description | Engagement events on board the RRS Discovery in Lisbon (Media events, round take discussion with scientists and meeting the UK ambassador to Portugal) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Ben Moat and Tillys Petit welcomed a number of journalists on Board the RRS Discovery to discuss the Atlantic Meridional Overturnign Circulation (AMOC). They filmed a peice for RTP's (BBC equivalent). Portuguese newspapers also published feature articles (full access/in English in the attached): Publico: https://www.publico.pt/2025/02/11/ciencia/noticia/discovery-maiores-navios-oceanograficos-mundo-lisboa-2122188 Expresso: https://expresso.pt/internacional/europa/2025-02-12-navio-rrs-discovery-esta-em-lisboa-os-segredos-e-as-historias-das-emblematicas-expedicoes-britanicas-4afe9f7a Observador: https://observador.pt/especiais/as-praxes-no-equador-a-investigacao-dos-oceanos-e-tina-a-faz-tudo-uma-viagem-ao-rrs-discovery-o-navio-cheio-de-ciencia/ We were also delighted to welcome His Majesty's Ambassador to Portugal and Cape Verde, Lisa Bandari, onboard the RRS Discovery while the ship was alongside in Lisbon. NOC was delighted to host a marine research roundtable onboard the RRS Discovery. This gathering brought together representatives from leading UK and Portuguese research institutions and this roundtable facilitated discussions on strengthening collaboration between UK and Portuguese researchers and aligning research efforts with the UN Ocean Decade's goals. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2025 |
| Description | ITN Interview for international news |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | ITN news visited the RRS James cook and we filmed a media piece on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) for the 10pm ITN news broadcast on the 21st Nov 2024. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://www.itv.com/news/2024-11-21/could-changing-ocean-currents-make-uk-winters-colder |
| Description | Key note presentation at the Irish Atlantic meridional Overturning circulation (AMOC) meeting |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The meetings aim was to bring together all interested in the AMOC in Ireland to discuss findings and future priorities. The breakout sessions discussed future calaboration between the UK and Ireland on AMOC research |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Presentation on AMOC and the impacts of Ocean circulation to the University of the third age in Hamphshire UK |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | 45 minutes presentation and then questions relating to our climate and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circualtion (AMOC) and the impacts of Ocean circulation to the University of the third age in Hamphshire UK |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2025 |
| Description | RAPID-Evlution kick off meeting |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The RAPID-Evolution kick off meeting was held at the National oceangraphy centre on te 14th September 2023. The event was attended by staff working on the project and National/internatinal partners. (30 people) The PI's from the other CCROC proposals attended. The aim was to bring the commuity together to discuss the project and its delivebles. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Visit to Test Valley |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Schools |
| Results and Impact | To present the role of the oceans in our climate to GCSE geography students. We specifically focused on how we Observe the changes in our ocean. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |