Quaternary QUEST: Regulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide on glacial-interglacial timescales and its coupling to climate change
Lead Research Organisation:
University of East Anglia
Department Name: Environmental Sciences
Abstract
The climate of the last million years is characterized by regular oscillations between cold glacial and warm interglacial states, thought to be paced by variations in the Earth's orbit around the sun. Sources of ancient climate data, such as marine and lake sediments and air trapped in polar ice cores reveal a remarkable behaviour; the climate behaves as a system of interlinked parts, changing in a complex but ordered way, in a sequence which recurs, with variations, like the themes in a symphony. The individual parts making up this composition are affected by changes in the physical circulation of the atmosphere and ocean, the coverage of vegetation, ice sheets and sea ice, the marine biota, concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, dust, and precipitation around the world. This behaviour suggests that the system is predictable, but that it is sensitively dependent on conditions and history. If we are ever to understand this complex system we must synthesise our knowledge from the data sources with understanding of how the Earth system works. Accordingly, a consortium of UK scientists will compile syntheses of ancient records from ice cores and sediments, improve the synchronization of these records one with another, and use that information to improve and test Earth System models (principally the 'GENIE' model, designed to simulate the diverse components of the climate system over time scales up to a million years). In particular, we will focus on the still unresolved problem of why atmospheric carbon dioxide changed so regularly with the climate cycles. We will also study how this change interacts with the other components of the Earth system. Until we have such understanding of the past, we are unlikely to have great confidence in our predictions of how Earth's climate will change in the future as we subject it the substantial assaults of human-induced change due to increasing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
Publications
De Boer A
(2007)
Effect of global ocean temperature change on deep ocean ventilation
in Paleoceanography
De Boer A
(2010)
A multi-variable box model approach to the soft tissue carbon pump
in Climate of the Past
De Boer A
(2010)
Meridional Density Gradients Do Not Control the Atlantic Overturning Circulation
in Journal of Physical Oceanography
Goodwin P
(2011)
Observational constraints on the causes of Holocene CO 2 change HOLOCENE CO 2 CHANGE
in Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Holden P
(2009)
A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial carbon change in GENIE-1
in Climate Dynamics
Holden P
(2010)
Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials
in Climate of the Past
Hoogakker B
(2009)
Mg/Ca paleothermometry in high salinity environments
in Earth and Planetary Science Letters
Hoogakker B
(2016)
Terrestrial biosphere changes over the last 120 kyr
in Climate of the Past
Hoogakker B
(2010)
Benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope offsets over the last glacial-interglacial cycle BENTHIC FORAMINIFERAL ISOTOPE OFFSETS
in Paleoceanography
Hughes C
(2009)
Seasonal variations in the concentrations of methyl and ethyl nitrate in a shallow freshwater lake
in Limnology and Oceanography
Johnson M
(2007)
Ammonium accumulation during a silicate-limited diatom bloom indicates the potential for ammonia emission events
in Marine Chemistry
Johnson M
(2010)
A numerical scheme to calculate temperature and salinity dependent air-water transfer velocities for any gas
in Ocean Science
Lenton T
(2006)
Enhanced carbonate and silicate weathering accelerates recovery from fossil fuel CO 2 perturbations
in Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Lenton TM
(2008)
Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system.
in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Nof D
(2007)
Does the Atlantic meridional overturning cell really have more than one stable steady state?
in Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers
Oliver K
(2010)
A synthesis of marine sediment core d<sup>13</sup>C data over the last 150 000 years
in Climate of the Past
Oliver K
(2008)
Location of potential energy sources and the export of dense water from the Atlantic Ocean
in Geophysical Research Letters
Siddall M
(2007)
Modeling the relationship between 231 Pa/ 230 Th distribution in North Atlantic sediment and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
in Paleoceanography
Sime L
(2009)
Evidence for warmer interglacials in East Antarctic ice cores
in Nature
Thornalley DJ
(2011)
The deglacial evolution of North Atlantic deep convection.
in Science (New York, N.Y.)
Tzedakis P
(2009)
Interglacial diversity
in Nature Geoscience
Description | The climate of the last million years is characterized by regular oscillations between cold glacial and warm interglacial states, thought to be paced by variations in the Earth's orbit around the sun. Sources of ancient climate data, such as marine and lake sediments and air trapped in polar ice cores reveal a remarkable behaviour; the climate behaves as a system of interlinked parts, changing in a complex but ordered way, in a sequence which recurs, with variations, like the themes in a symphony. The individual parts making up this composition are affected by changes in the physical circulation of the atmosphere and ocean, the coverage of vegetation, ice sheets and sea ice, the marine biota, concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, dust, and precipitation around the world. This behaviour suggests that the system is predictable, but that it is sensitively dependent on conditions and history. If we are ever to understand this complex system we must synthesise our knowledge from data sources with understanding of how the Earth system works. Accordingly, as a consortium of UK scientists we compiled a syntheses of ancient records from ice cores and sediments, improved the synchronization of these records one with another, and used that information to improve and test Earth System models (principally the 'GENIE' model, designed to simulate the diverse components of the climate system over time scales up to a million years). We focused on the outstanding problem of why atmospheric carbon dioxide changed so regularly with the climate cycles, and how this change interacted with the other components of the Earth system. The resulting improved understanding of the past, can help build confidence in our predictions of how Earth's climate will change in the future as we subject it the substantial assaults of human-induced change due to increasing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. |
Exploitation Route | In further research into controls on atmospheric CO2, especially Earth system modelling. |
Sectors | Education Environment |
Description | In further research using the GENIE model |
First Year Of Impact | 2009 |
Sector | Education,Environment |
Impact Types | Cultural Societal |