PREDICTING THE CLIMATE OF THE COMING DECADE
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Reading
Department Name: Meteorology
Abstract
The Earth's climate is changing, and there is strong evidence that humans have caused most of the warming in the past 50 years. Until recently, much of the focus of climate science has been on making more detailed predictions of what might happen over the coming century, and especially on providing information to decision makers on likely impacts of a change in climate. This knowledge has motivated changes in policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, i.e. mitigation. However, some additional climate change is inevitable, which will require adaptation, regardless of the mitigation policies pursued. Predicting the climate of the next decade is essential because of the urgent need to adapt to a changing climate. For example, a prediction of low future rainfall in Africa would allow advance planning for potential droughts. A judgment on when to replace railway track might include the risks of a heatwave causing lines to buckle, as happened in the UK in August 2003. The diverse range of applications ensures that predicting the climate of the next decade is a fascinating and engaging challenge, with potentially enormous social and economic benefits. To ensure appropriate choices are made, decision makers need to trust the predictions made by climate scientists. But, according to a recent survey, 40% of the British public think the threat of climate change has been exaggerated. To convince a sceptical public and aid decision making, it is essential to build trust in the sophisticated climate models used to make predictions. Every day, similar supercomputer models are used to make weather forecasts which are later compared to what actually happened. This continual assessment allows the models to be improved, building trust in their predictions and ensuring forecasts are more accurate. This fellowship aims to help build the same trust in the models used to predict climate, especially for the coming decade. However, to make accurate climate predictions for the next decade, it is important to realise that the climate changes for two reasons: (i) factors such as greenhouse gases & solar output, and (ii) natural fluctuations. Such fluctuations can temporarily enhance or reduce any long-term trends, especially on regional scales, producing decades where temperatures are warming rapidly and decades when temperatures are stable or even cooling. For example, one third of future decades are predicted to show decreasing temperatures for the UK, i.e. we expect to see periods of cooling temperatures in a warming climate. Without accounting for these fluctuations, the forecasts would be inaccurate, reducing the trust in climate predictions, and so a new strategy is needed. This proposed research will design an improved system for making predictions by analysing the recent past, for example, by only using data available in 1990 to predict the subsequent decade. By improving predictions of the past we can build trust in predictions of the future. To predict these natural fluctuations, we first need to understand their causes. The answers mainly lie in the oceans, which change relatively slowly compared to the atmosphere. The oceans are the main source of natural decadal fluctuations, due to both their large heat capacity and slow changes in ocean circulation. Predicting how the oceans will change over the next decade is essential to predict climate. However, ocean predictions require ocean measurements, which are tricky and expensive to obtain, especially below the surface. It would be more cost effective to target particular locations, rather than the whole ocean. Another vital aspect of this fellowship is identifying sensitive regions of the oceans, and wider 'Earth system' components, such as sea-ice, where small uncertainties cause forecasts to be inaccurate. This research will improve the design of efficient monitoring systems to reduce uncertainty and ensure improved predictions of the climate of the coming decade.
Organisations
Publications
Allison L
(2014)
An event-based approach to understanding decadal fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
in Climate Dynamics
Ba J
(2013)
A mechanism for Atlantic multidecadal variability in the Kiel Climate Model
in Climate Dynamics
Bethke I
(2017)
Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability
in Nature Climate Change
Betts R
(2014)
Plant genetic resources and climate change
Booth B
(2013)
Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models
in Earth System Dynamics
Burt S
(2019)
Near-zero humidities on Ben Nevis, Scotland, revealed by pioneering 19th-century observers and modern volunteers
in International Journal of Climatology
Cassou C
(2018)
Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenges and Opportunities
in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Chalmers N
(2012)
Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near-term climate under RCP 2.6
in Geophysical Research Letters
Cowtan K
(2015)
Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures
in Geophysical Research Letters
Description | The time at which the "signal" of climate change emerges from the "noise" of natural climate variability is key risk assessments. We find that the signal emerges several decades sooner in low latitudes, particularly in summer, than in mid-latitudes. However, the uncertainty in when the signal emerges is at least 30 years in the regions examined. In many cases major impacts (e.g. widespread crop failure) are likely to be associated with crossing thresholds in signal-to-noise. To develop robust adaptation strategies, policy makers and planners must take into account the large uncertainty in when these events may take place. |
Sectors | Environment |
Description | A climate spiral graphic I created went 'viral', being shared millions of times on facebook and seen by millions on twitter. A version was also used during the Opening Ceremony of the Rio Olympics, being seen by more than 1 billion people. |
First Year Of Impact | 2016 |
Sector | Environment |
Impact Types | Societal |
Description | Citizen science data rescue projects |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Citizen science data rescue activities |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019,2020,2021 |
URL | http://www.rainfallrescue.org |
Description | Climate Lab Book blog |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Editor of Climate Lab Book blog which receives around 4000 visits per month Figures from blog posts have appeared in Mail on Sunday, Economist magazine, US Senate hearing, BBC News at 6, BBC News at 10 & Newsnight, Guardian & numerous online publications |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017 |
URL | http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk |
Description | Climate spiral |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | In May 2016 I created a 'climate spiral', showing global temperature changes since 1850. This went 'viral', being shared millions of times on facebook and seen by millions on twitter. It featured in several online and print media outlets. Later in the year, a version of the spiral was used during the opening ceremony of the Rio Olympics, being seen by over 1 billion people. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016,2017 |
URL | http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/spirals |
Description | Gave oral evidence to House of Lords inquiry into the Arctic |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | Yes |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Oral and written evidence submitted to the inquiry Invited to attend Arctic Circle conference |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
Description | General media activities |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Media activity. Full list at URL below. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017 |
URL | http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~ed/home/outreach.html |
Description | IPCC OUTREACH |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Gave several media interviews in response to publication of IPCC Assessment Report None |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
Description | |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | My personal twitter account has over 13900 followers Additional publications and authorship on book chapter. Increased interest from media and resulting appearances in print articles and online. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017 |
URL | http://twitter.com/ed_hawkins |
Description | Warming stripes |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Design of a set of graphics - the warming stripes - which communicate changes in temperature over time in a simple, visually appealing way. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018,2019,2020,2021 |
URL | http://www.showyourstripes.info |